[MaxGhenis]

Rebuilds the Microcosm Dynamics paper bundle from PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics master e0a731ae. That picks up two changes:

• Paper: report B2's failure and gate_epuf_fill's scores microcosm-dynamics#551, which reports three results the paper still described as planned or absent;
• Keep the #494 reference's code identifier in lower case microcosm-dynamics#536, a bib-title fix that the previous bundle (Dynamics paper: corrections from microcosm-dynamics #527 #88) noted it owed.

#551 was reviewed in three rounds, the last approving at 38cf3627.

What changes on the page

A word-level diff of dynamics/web/index.html against the live page shows 54 changes, all from #551 and #536.

• B2 failed. The new text appears in the abstract, the summary, the forward-earnings sentences, the coverage table and the "Forward earnings in the projection" paragraph (#42 comment 6252752628).
  • The registered test carried the forward earnings law from 2010 to 2014. It projected a zero-earnings rate at ages 25–44 about 35% above the PSID's, beyond a tolerance of about 22%.
  • The gap exceeds tolerance in all five household splits.
  • There will be no rerun and no tolerance relief. A successor law will rest on evidence independent of B2's result and will be registered first.
• gate_epuf_fill. The Earnings Public-Use File passage and two table rows now report its scores.
  • The blind tests' career-fill rules fail it: 100 of 183 cells and 131 of 136.
  • The learned pre-career fill passes all 136.
  • The learned odd-year fill is adopted without certification.
• The earnings test. The paragraph now describes the built annual ledger and the adjustment and recomputation modules.
• Delayed credits. The paragraph now notes the statutory window beside the oracle and the erratum diagnostic's finding: no published value changes, and the first estimates are bounded, not recomputed.
• The #494 reference now renders "ss.benefits.delayed_credit" in lowercase (#536).

Build

• Quarto 1.9.36 rendered the HTML and the PDF (40 pages) from master e0a731ae. build-site-bundle.py then built the bundle, with the identity overrides, and reported no problems. Neither render warned.
• Web bundle SHA-256 3153f57c…; PDF SHA-256 5c59f2c9….

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated
microcosm-institute	Ready	Preview	Oct 20, 2026 6:52am UTC

[MaxGhenis]

Merged at reviewed head c41d3d4 (merge commit 111b2e6) by the dynamics coordinator, on Max's go to publish (2026-10-20). Gates: gh pr checks exit 0 (Vercel), MERGEABLE, not a draft.

Independent review (20261020-025219-mi89-review): APPROVE. The reviewer re-rendered both papers with Quarto 1.9.36:

• 3d23760d, plus the identity block, reproduces the live page byte for byte;
• e0a731ae reproduces this bundle's index.html byte for byte (SHA-256 3153f57c…);
• the PDF matches except LuaTeX's path-derived trailer /ID.

All 54 word-level changes map to microcosm-dynamics #551 (8 hunks) or #536 (the lowercase ss.benefits.delayed_credit). Links and assets resolve.

Follow-up: four other dynamics/ pages still describe forward earnings as planned, or the EPUF step as unscored: learn/index.html, index.html, paper.html's next steps and progress.html's scorecard. A separate PR follows.