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Dynamics pages: B2's failure and the EPUF fill test - #90

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dynamics-pages-b2-epuf-20261020
Oct 20, 2026
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Follow-up to #89, which published the paper's report of B2's failure and of gate_epuf_fill's scores. #89's review found four pages under dynamics/ that still describe forward earnings only as planned, or the Earnings Public-Use File step as unscored:

  • learn/index.html: the limits paragraph now says the EPUF check has scored the career-fill rules, without yet scoring generated earnings or whole careers. A new plain-language sentence before the "We plan" paragraph reports B2's failure: the model's share of people aged 25–44 with no earnings came out about 35% higher than the PSID's, so a successor has to pass first.
  • index.html: the "Next: forward earnings" card adds one sentence on B2's failure.
  • paper.html: the wrapper's "next" text starts with B2's failure and the successor.
  • progress.html: the baked fallback scorecard is re-baked from Progress scorecard: add gate_epuf_fill and B2's failure microcosm-dynamics#553. The live page fetches scorecard.json from microcosm-dynamics master, so the fallback should match it. Merge after #553.

Every fact comes from microcosm-dynamics master as published in #89: #42 comment 6252752628, and runs/epuf_fill_gate_test_v1.json.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…rd fallback

The paper now reports B2's failure (#89). These pages still described
forward earnings only as planned, and the EPUF step as unscored:
- learn/index.html: the EPUF sentence and a plain-language B2 sentence;
- index.html: the 'Next: forward earnings' card;
- paper.html: the wrapper's 'next' text;
- progress.html: the baked fallback scorecard, re-baked from
  microcosm-dynamics#553 (the live page fetches it from master).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…'s final scorecard

- learn: the EPUF 'so far' sentence no longer contradicts the new
  opening; B2's years are given; the gate table gains B2 and a
  gate_epuf_fill row; the Earnings and Missing-years bullets name both.
- paper.html: the EPUF check is no longer 'planned'; the 'next' entry
  uses one term for forward earnings.
- scorecard/copy.json: Track B is under way (B1 v2 passed; B2 failed);
  the earnings-test row lists the built ledger and modules, and the
  historical-earnings row notes that the fill rules fail gate_epuf_fill,
  with sources.
- progress.html: the fallback re-baked from #553 at 40ca2abf.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…nd failed

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis merged commit 3af9373 into master Oct 20, 2026
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Merged at reviewed head d6472e3 (merge commit 3af9373) by the dynamics coordinator. This is the follow-up Max approved alongside publishing #89 (2026-10-20). Gates: gh pr checks exit 0, MERGEABLE, not a draft. It landed after PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics#553 merged, so the re-baked fallback scorecard matches master.

Independent review: three GPT-6.1 Sol rounds.

  • Round 1 (20261020-112436-md553-mi90-review): requested changes on four points: the learn page's EPUF contradiction, the "planned" EPUF check, the re-bake, and the B2 years.
  • Round 2 (20261020-115344-md553-mi90-review-r2): confirmed those, plus the extra fixes: the learn gate table and bullets, and copy.json's Track B and earnings-test rows with their sources. It requested one fix, B1 v2's full label.
  • Round 3 (20261020-120926-mi90-review-r3): APPROVE at d6472e3. check.mjs passes, and only the intended strings changed.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the dynamics-pages-b2-epuf-20261020 branch October 20, 2026 18:14

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