thevibeworks · lroolle · Aug 24, 2026 · Aug 24, 2026
diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -2,6 +2,33 @@
 
 ## Unreleased
 
+## v0.32.1 — 2026-08-23 — one projection, one floor
+
+**Row 3's gate was measuring the wrong thing.** It required the flash to
+beat the pin by `NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_GAIN` columns — the right question in
+v0.31.0, when row 3 restated row 2 and the only issue was whether
+truncation had left anything extra to say. Since v0.32.0 the flash is a
+*different* notice, so that subtraction compared two unrelated sentences
+and dropped a short one whenever the pin happened to be long: at 30
+columns `! 5h caps ~23:54` (16) beside `! 7d caps ~Tue 07:22` (20) is a
+gain of 4, and the second window lost its row for no reason a reader
+could name. The gate is now an absolute floor on the compacted flash
+itself (`NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_CHARS=16`, in `notice_flash_worth_row`): did
+truncation leave a sentence, or a stub? `7d dry ~Wed` says nothing you
+can act on; `7d dry ~Wed 19:50` still carries the number.
+
+**A ten-minute-old 5h window drew `▮▯×××`.** One big prompt front-loads
+burn — 7% in ten minutes — and `five_dry_cell` projected that as a rate
+and walled off the rest of the window. On the very same render the pace
+suffix hid itself (too young to judge) and the "5h caps" notice stayed
+silent (it waits 15 minutes): three surfaces, one linear projection,
+and only the loudest one spoke. The 5h dry cells now wait on the same
+evidence the other two do. `window_evidence_floor` is that rule in one
+place — 5% of the window's own length, so the 5h trio agrees at 15
+minutes and the 7d pace suffix keeps its ~8.4h — and
+`ADVISOR_PACE_MIN_ELAPSED` is retired into it, because a constant beside
+a formula is a drift waiting to happen.
+
 ## v0.32.0 — 2026-08-23 — say it once, and only when you know it
 
 **Row 3 was restating row 2 at greater length.** The flash reader

diff --git a/DESIGN.md b/DESIGN.md
@@ -103,7 +103,8 @@ badges.
 ▮          now
 ▯          ahead — the hollow of ▮
 ...▯(x14)  the folded future: 14 more 5h windows before the reset (live 7d row)
-×          pace won't cover it (7d: learned forecast, linear when cold; 5h: linear)
+×          pace won't cover it (7d: learned forecast, linear when cold; 5h: linear;
+           no projection before 5% of the window has run — same floor as the pace)
 ```
 
 Burn cells take their badge's pressure color; nothing else in the row is
@@ -128,7 +129,8 @@ rank  voice  scope  key  hl  short  long
   frame: two clauses about one window can never disagree.
 - **key** — identity of the *condition*, not of the text. Row 3 shows a
   notice only while its key is new to this session (~90 s), so a long
-  explanation arrives once and then gets out of the way.
+  explanation arrives once and then gets out of the way. Never the pin's
+  key: row 3 starts at the second record, so one condition costs one row.
 - **hl** — the number the reader acts on: bold, then back to the voice.
 - **short / long** — the pin, and the sentence for a surface with a
   whole line (row 3, `--check`, `--week`).

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -305,7 +305,7 @@ fire.
 | `░` | unknown: the log has no sample for that cell (never drawn as idle — a gap in the record is not a quiet session) |
 | `▮` | the cell you are in now |
 | `▯` | a cell still ahead of you — the hollow of `▮`, an empty slot waiting |
-| `×` | a cell the pool will not cover at the current pace (7d: the learned forecast's dry point, linear when untrained; 5h: linear, the same projection as the badge) |
+| `×` | a cell the pool will not cover at the current pace (7d: the learned forecast's dry point, linear when untrained; 5h: linear, the same projection as the badge). Waits on the same evidence the pace suffix does — 5% of the window — so one front-loaded prompt cannot wall off a window that just opened |
 | `...▯(✕28)` | the folded 7d future: 28 more 5h windows before the reset, one token instead of a run of hollow cells (`×` red when the tail ends dry). The count is windows-to-reset — what the budget line prices — not the number of cells the fold happened to hide |
 | `✕` | not a cell — the multiplication sign, the row's one operator (`...▯(✕28)`, `0.7✕`, `19✕5h left`). Deliberately not `×` (U+00D7), which is already a reading: cells are the ink, the operator is punctuation, and `...×(×28)` has to say both at once. One terminal column and no emoji fallback, so the row still meets line 1's edge; override with `MULT_GLYPH` (`╳` and `✖` look stronger but are ambiguous-width and emoji-presentation respectively) |
 
@@ -339,11 +339,13 @@ proj (main*)      +84/-14 8m $6.72 fabl5[1m][██░░42%] fb[91%] [MAX|@work
 ```
 
 **Row 2 pins** the top notice, compacted to the room the ledgers leave —
-it stays while the condition holds. **Row 3 flashes** the same notice in
-full, but only for ~90 s after the condition first appears in this
-session: the explanation arrives once, then gets out of the way and
-leaves the pin. A second story that shows up later takes row 3 next.
-The number you act on is **bold**.
+it stays while the condition holds. **Row 3 flashes** the *next* notice
+in full — never the pin's own sentence, which row 2 is already carrying
+— and only for ~90 s after that condition first appears in this session:
+the explanation arrives once, then gets out of the way and leaves the
+pin. One thing to say means one row, not the same sentence at two
+lengths. A flash that truncation has cut below a readable sentence is
+dropped rather than shown as a stub. The number you act on is **bold**.
 
 Three voices, one hue each:
 
@@ -511,7 +513,7 @@ run. Setting only `CLAUDE_CACHE_DIR` keeps the legacy single-dir behavior.
 npm exec --yes bats -- t/
 ```
 
-423 tests across `t/statusline.bats` (411 statusline + integration) and
+426 tests across `t/statusline.bats` (414 statusline + integration) and
 `t/install.bats` (12 installer). CI runs on push and PR to `main`.
 
 ## Project Structure

diff --git a/docs/index.html b/docs/index.html
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 <meta charset="utf-8">
 <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
 <title>Claude Code Statusline — a meter for your Claude Code plan</title>
-<meta name="description" content="Your plan is metered; this is the meter. Live 5h/7d quota with reset times, per-model weekly limits, context pressure, session cost, burn ledgers with a learned dry-out forecast, and a notice engine that says which limit binds first — in your Claude Code prompt. One bash file, 423 tests, no daemon, no telemetry.">
+<meta name="description" content="Your plan is metered; this is the meter. Live 5h/7d quota with reset times, per-model weekly limits, context pressure, session cost, burn ledgers with a learned dry-out forecast, and a notice engine that says which limit binds first — in your Claude Code prompt. One bash file, 426 tests, no daemon, no telemetry.">
 <link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
 <link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
 <link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=IBM+Plex+Mono:wght@400;600&family=IBM+Plex+Sans:wght@400;600&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
@@ -204,7 +204,7 @@
 
 <header class="wrap plate">
   <h1>claude-code-statusline <span>— a meter for your Claude Code plan</span></h1>
-  <div class="tariff">423 tests · jq + curl · no daemon · no telemetry</div>
+  <div class="tariff">426 tests · jq + curl · no daemon · no telemetry</div>
 </header>
 
 <main class="wrap">
@@ -277,7 +277,7 @@ <h2>Built like a meter should be</h2>
     <div class="val"><h3>Numbers that don't lie</h3>
       <p>Wall-clock resets instead of decaying countdowns. A visible <code>[░░░░░░0%]</code> after <code>/compact</code> instead of a hidden bar. Stale data is badged, never passed off as fresh. Burn is a monotone envelope, never a re-earned dip.</p></div>
     <div class="val"><h3>Nothing running in the background</h3>
-      <p>No daemon, no telemetry, no npm. It runs when Claude Code renders the prompt, reads stdin plus one shared cached API call, prints its rows, exits. 423 bats tests on the one file.</p></div>
+      <p>No daemon, no telemetry, no npm. It runs when Claude Code renders the prompt, reads stdin plus one shared cached API call, prints its rows, exits. 426 bats tests on the one file.</p></div>
   </div>
 </section>
 

diff --git a/llms.txt b/llms.txt
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
 > the points went), an advisor row that interprets the
 > numbers (cap projections, expiring-surplus and underuse advice, fleet
 > relief), and a `report` subcommand that ledgers what each closed window
-> expired unused. 423 bats tests, deps are jq + curl, no daemon, no
+> expired unused. 426 bats tests, deps are jq + curl, no daemon, no
 > telemetry.
 
 Key facts for agents:

diff --git a/statusline.sh b/statusline.sh
@@ -63,14 +63,13 @@ CACHE_BREAK_MIN_TOKENS=2000      # ignore cache drops below this (noise)
 CACHE_BREAK_DROP_PCT=5           # cache read must drop >5% to count as break
 CACHE_HEAVY_TOKENS=200000        # break badge turns bold-red past this: the
                                  # >200k premium-band prefix, an expensive rewrite
-ADVISOR_PACE_MIN_ELAPSED=900     # 5h cap projection needs >=15m of window aged
 ADVISOR_FLEET_FRESH_SECS=3600    # sibling account cache older than this is unknown
 ADVISOR_FLEET_FREE_PCT=40        # sibling counts as "free" at or under this 5h%
 ADVISOR_EXPIRY_HORIZON_SECS=86400 # 7d surplus clause: inside the last day of the week
 ADVISOR_SURPLUS_MIN_PCT=30       # unused weekly % that counts as expiring waste
 ADVISOR_UNDERUSE_END_PCT=60      # projected end-of-week <= this => underuse advice
 NOTICE_FLASH_SECS=90             # a new notice explains itself on row 3 this long
-NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_GAIN=12         # ...and only while it still says more than the pin
+NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_CHARS=16        # ...and only if truncation left a sentence, not a stub
 NOTICE_REBASE_SECS=1800          # an out-of-band 7d reset stays newsworthy this long
 NOTICE_REBASE_DROP_PCT=10        # 7d falling this much inside one window = re-based
 NOTICE_TAIL_SECS=3600            # "this 5h window is closing" horizon
@@ -2938,12 +2937,27 @@ ledger_has_past() {
     return 1
 }
 
+# How much of a window must have run before its own numbers may project:
+# 5% of its length (5h -> 15m, 7d -> ~8.4h, the fraction seven_day_elapsed
+# has always called the noise floor). One rule with one caller-supplied
+# length, because the alternative is a constant per surface and surfaces
+# that disagree about the same window — which is exactly how a 10-minute-old
+# 5h window came to draw `▮▯×××` while the pace suffix on the same row
+# judged itself too young to speak.
+window_evidence_floor() {
+    echo $(( $1 / 20 ))
+}
+
 # The 5h window's own dry cell: linear pace, the same projection the 5h
-# badge and the advisor's "5h caps ~14:20" use. -1 when it holds to reset.
+# badge and the advisor's "5h caps ~14:20" use — so it waits for the same
+# evidence they do. One prompt front-loading 7% ten minutes in is not a rate
+# yet, and a wall of × is the loudest way to say it. -1 when it holds to
+# reset, and while the window is too young to judge.
 five_dry_cell() {
     local five_int="$1" five_secs="$2" now="$3" five_start="$4"
-    local elapsed=$(( now - five_start ))
-    [ "$five_int" -gt 0 ] 2>/dev/null && [ "$elapsed" -gt 0 ] || { echo -1; return 0; }
+    local elapsed=$(( now - five_start )) floor
+    floor=$(window_evidence_floor 18000)
+    [ "$five_int" -gt 0 ] 2>/dev/null && [ "$elapsed" -ge "$floor" ] || { echo -1; return 0; }
     local dry_epoch=$(( now + elapsed * (100 - five_int) / five_int ))
     if [ "$dry_epoch" -lt $(( now + five_secs )) ]; then
         echo $(( (dry_epoch - five_start) / FIVE_CELL_SECS ))
@@ -2961,18 +2975,20 @@ five_period_start() {
 # Tail of a strip: pace and the axis label of its right end (the reset).
 # pace = used / elapsed-fraction; >1✕ means the pool caps before the reset.
 # Dim below 1✕, pressure-tinted from 1✕ (status lane), hidden while the
-# window is too young to judge — and young is a FRACTION of the window, not a
-# clock reading: 5% of its own length, so 5h still waits 15m and 7d waits
-# ~8.4h (the same fraction seven_day_elapsed calls noisy). A flat 15m was
-# right for 5h and nonsense for a week: an hour into a fresh window, 2% of
-# the pool divided by 0.6% of the time printed 3✕ in red. Reset is wall
+# window is too young to judge — window_evidence_floor, the one rule the 5h
+# dry cells and the caps notice also wait on: 5% of the window's own length,
+# so 5h waits 15m and 7d waits ~8.4h (the fraction seven_day_elapsed calls
+# noisy). A flat 15m was right for 5h and nonsense for a week: an hour into a
+# fresh window, 2% of the pool divided by 0.6% of the time printed 3✕ in red.
+# Reset is wall
 # clock: `@04:00` inside 24h, `@Wed 09:00` beyond — an axis label for a
 # timeline that ends there. $5 = "hide" drops it: when the badge above
 # already carries that reset, printing it again spends columns to say
 # nothing (one badge per fact, in both directions).
 strip_tail() {
     local pct="$1" secs_left="$2" length="$3" now="$4" reset_mode="${5:-show}"
-    local out="" elapsed=$(( length - secs_left )) min_elapsed=$(( length / 20 ))
+    local out="" elapsed=$(( length - secs_left )) min_elapsed
+    min_elapsed=$(window_evidence_floor "$length")
     if [ "$elapsed" -ge "$min_elapsed" ] && [ "$pct" -gt 0 ] 2>/dev/null; then
         local pace tint band
         pace=$(awk -v u="$pct" -v e="$elapsed" -v l="$length" 'BEGIN{ printf "%.1f", (u/100)/(e/l) }')
@@ -3732,6 +3748,17 @@ notice_flash_line() {
     return 0
 }
 
+# Is the flash still worth a row after the width took its bite? The old rule
+# asked whether it beat the PIN by NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_GAIN columns, which made
+# sense only while row 3 restated row 2 — once the flash became a different
+# notice, that subtraction compared two unrelated sentences and dropped a
+# short one whenever the pin happened to be long. The question is absolute:
+# `7d dry ~Wed` has spent a row to say nothing you can act on, `7d dry ~Wed
+# 19:50` still carries the number.
+notice_flash_worth_row() {
+    [ "${#1}" -ge "$NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_CHARS" ]
+}
+
 # Read the account's live numbers and emit every notice they justify.
 # Order below is the order the old advisor spoke in — pressure first, so the
 # `pressure` gate still mutes the "go heavier" family; rank decides what the
@@ -3842,8 +3869,9 @@ notice_collect() {
     # says capped; only the fleet hint still helps there.
     if [ "$five_int" -ge 80 ] && [ "$five_int" -lt 100 ] \
        && [ -n "$five_secs" ] && [ "$five_secs" -gt "$FIVE_HOUR_RECOVERY_SECS" ] 2>/dev/null; then
-        local elapsed=$((18000 - five_secs))
-        if [ "$elapsed" -ge "$ADVISOR_PACE_MIN_ELAPSED" ]; then
+        local elapsed=$((18000 - five_secs)) floor
+        floor=$(window_evidence_floor 18000)
+        if [ "$elapsed" -ge "$floor" ]; then
             local cap_secs=$(( (100 - five_int) * elapsed / five_int ))
             if [ "$cap_secs" -lt "$five_secs" ]; then
                 local cap_hhmm gap voice='!yellow'
@@ -5221,10 +5249,8 @@ if [ -n "$notice_flash" ]; then
     [ "$flash_anchor" -gt "$term_width" ] 2>/dev/null && flash_anchor=$term_width
     notice_flash=$(compact_text "$notice_flash" $((flash_anchor - 1)) || printf '%s' "$notice_flash")
     flash_plain=$(plain_text "$notice_flash")
-    pin_plain=$(plain_text "${advisor_short:-$advisor_line}")
-    # once truncation has eaten the explanation, row 3 is only the pin again:
-    # cheaper to say nothing than to spend a row restating it
-    if [ $(( ${#flash_plain} - ${#pin_plain} )) -ge "$NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_GAIN" ]; then
+    # a stub is not an explanation; see notice_flash_worth_row
+    if notice_flash_worth_row "$flash_plain"; then
         queue_row "${notice_flash}${RESET}" "FLASH"
     fi
 fi

diff --git a/t/helpers.bash b/t/helpers.bash
@@ -61,7 +61,6 @@ CACHE_TTL_DEFAULT="1h"
 CACHE_HEAVY_TOKENS=200000
 CACHE_GLYPH="≡"
 MULT_GLYPH="✕"
-ADVISOR_PACE_MIN_ELAPSED=900
 ADVISOR_FLEET_FRESH_SECS=3600
 ADVISOR_FLEET_FREE_PCT=40
 ADVISOR_EXPIRY_HORIZON_SECS=86400
@@ -80,7 +79,7 @@ WEEK_FUTURE_KEEP=2
 WEEK_FUTURE_MIN_HIDE=10
 WEEK_CACHE_TTL_SECS=300
 NOTICE_FLASH_SECS=90
-NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_GAIN=12
+NOTICE_FLASH_MIN_CHARS=16
 NOTICE_REBASE_SECS=1800
 NOTICE_REBASE_DROP_PCT=10
 NOTICE_TAIL_SECS=3600
@@ -97,7 +96,7 @@ debug_log() {
 # Source individual functions by extracting them from statusline.sh.
 # This is deliberate: we test the actual production code, not copies.
 eval "$(awk '
-    /^(abbreviate_model_id|get_runtime_model|format_reset_relative|format_reset_absolute|get_reset_seconds|format_duration|should_show_extra|get_cache_health|infer_cache_ttl_class|build_cache_indicator|get_usage_color|get_seven_day_color|seven_day_elapsed|seven_day_pace|weekend_secs_ahead|get_adaptive_ttl|curl_ca_bundle|acquire_lock|reap_stale_lock|fetch_usage_for_session|merge_stdin_rate_limits|rotate_usage_log|build_seven_day_profile|seven_day_forecast|premium_band_level|abbrev_effort|effort_color|_epoch_from_ts|_fmt_epoch|render_bar|format_money_minor|oauth_token_expired|refresh_oauth_credentials_file|is_default_1m_family|get_context_limit|is_1m_model|rotate_debug_log|build_display_path|build_trace_url|build_trace_component|delta_flash|delta_flash_part|quota_bump_notice|record_fetch_error|fetch_error_remaining|fetch_error_badge|model_scope_abbrev|build_scoped_quota_display|build_usage_display|build_extra_usage_display|build_user_info|get_user_tier|build_advisor_line|build_advisor_fleet_hint|_seven_day_walk|forecast_pct_per_window|build_deadman_component|log_usage_snapshot|log_stdin_snapshot|detect_session_boundary|last_logged_model|run_usage_report|run_check|run_session_summary|run_week|week_period_start|week_scan|week_history_cells|five_history_cells|week_dry_slot|ledger_has_past|build_ledger_strip|build_week_strip|build_five_strip|five_dry_cell|five_period_start|strip_tail|build_week_row|compact_text|plain_text|notice_add|notice_voice_color|notice_highlight|notice_render|notice_first_seen|notice_ranked|notice_pin_line|notice_long_line|notice_flash_line|notice_collect|_profile_walk|_scoped_walk|scoped_forecast|scoped_profile_name|forecast_usd_per_pct|session_telemetry_json)\(\)/ { capture=1 }
+    /^(abbreviate_model_id|get_runtime_model|format_reset_relative|format_reset_absolute|get_reset_seconds|format_duration|should_show_extra|get_cache_health|infer_cache_ttl_class|build_cache_indicator|get_usage_color|get_seven_day_color|seven_day_elapsed|seven_day_pace|weekend_secs_ahead|get_adaptive_ttl|curl_ca_bundle|acquire_lock|reap_stale_lock|fetch_usage_for_session|merge_stdin_rate_limits|rotate_usage_log|build_seven_day_profile|seven_day_forecast|premium_band_level|abbrev_effort|effort_color|_epoch_from_ts|_fmt_epoch|render_bar|format_money_minor|oauth_token_expired|refresh_oauth_credentials_file|is_default_1m_family|get_context_limit|is_1m_model|rotate_debug_log|build_display_path|build_trace_url|build_trace_component|delta_flash|delta_flash_part|quota_bump_notice|record_fetch_error|fetch_error_remaining|fetch_error_badge|model_scope_abbrev|build_scoped_quota_display|build_usage_display|build_extra_usage_display|build_user_info|get_user_tier|build_advisor_line|build_advisor_fleet_hint|_seven_day_walk|forecast_pct_per_window|build_deadman_component|log_usage_snapshot|log_stdin_snapshot|detect_session_boundary|last_logged_model|run_usage_report|run_check|run_session_summary|run_week|week_period_start|week_scan|week_history_cells|five_history_cells|week_dry_slot|ledger_has_past|window_evidence_floor|build_ledger_strip|build_week_strip|build_five_strip|five_dry_cell|five_period_start|strip_tail|build_week_row|compact_text|plain_text|notice_add|notice_voice_color|notice_highlight|notice_render|notice_first_seen|notice_ranked|notice_pin_line|notice_long_line|notice_flash_line|notice_flash_worth_row|notice_collect|_profile_walk|_scoped_walk|scoped_forecast|scoped_profile_name|forecast_usd_per_pct|session_telemetry_json)\(\)/ { capture=1 }
     capture { print }
     capture && /^}$/ { capture=0 }
 ' "$SCRIPT_DIR/statusline.sh")"