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Phase 2: Time Horizon & Discounting — relaxes A1, A2, A3#2

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ruschenpohler merged 5 commits into
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phase-2-time-horizon
Jun 3, 2026
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Phase 2: Time Horizon & Discounting — relaxes A1, A2, A3#2
ruschenpohler merged 5 commits into
mainfrom
phase-2-time-horizon

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Phase 2 deliverables\n\nRelaxes three assumptions from Phase 1:\n- A1: Fixed + variable cost decomposition, compliance-adjusted\n- A2: Heterogeneous durations (1–10 years)\n- A3: Exponential effect decay\n\n### Changes\n\n- cea_dev/time_horizon.py — DiscountedIntervention, DiscountedInterventionSet,

anking_shift()\n- cea_dev/visualization.py — Added plot_ranking_shift() (side-by-side league tables)\n- ests/test_time_horizon.py — 13 new tests (26 total)\n-
otebooks/02_time_horizon.ipynb — Full walkthrough with discount rate sensitivity\n\n### Key result\nECD moves from 5th to 2nd when its 10-year duration is accounted for. Short-duration interventions (school meals, deworming) lose ground. TaRL stays #1.

@ruschenpohler ruschenpohler merged commit 9d382a5 into main Jun 3, 2026
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