FCM cost estimate framework — 2022 bear market#1
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…High Tide vs AAVE` • exploration based on `main` commit `ba544b11514139737cfc594eae6ef1113faa43e3` Simulation edits • File `sim_tests/archive_tests/balanced_scenario_monte_carlo.py` - broken Import stub removed - btc_final_price restored from $90_000.0 (broken end value) → 76_342.50 (−23.66%, scenario in primer) - simulation order flipped (lines 425–431): makes Aave result deterministic independent of High Tide's internal PRNG usage; flipped order improves match with primer results. Existing comments indicate that this might have been the intended order anyway. • File 2: `tidal_protocol_sim/agents/aave_agent.py`: bypass scaling bug in MOET:BTC pool ; Fix: liquidator provides debt repayment directly as in real-world aave Further reading • sims-review_commit-da4cbf9/DISCREPANCY-ANALYSIS_balanced_scenario_monte_carlo.md • sims-review_commit-ba544b1/PRIMER-COMPATIBLE_balanced_scenario_monte_carlo.md
… floating-point shortcut (commit `48a9ff2`) eliminated real AMM friction, making HT rebalancing costs artificially zero
- Add HC/SR/ER transaction counters and per-event rebalance log to HighTideAgent - Add hourly HF history recording at every health-check slot - Add FCM operational params to FullYearSimConfig (check frequency, max cycles, disable deleveraging) - Add run_cost_estimate_2022.py: single-agent 2022 simulation with FlowCreditMarket.cdc thresholds (ER 1.5 / SR 1.1 / target 1.3) - Add plot_cost_estimate_report.py: two figures (BTC+HF dashboard with continuous HF line and rebalance arrows; event analytics with transition bar chart and broken y-axis HF distribution) - Add generate_cost_table.py: cost estimate table with symbolic placeholders (c_hc, c_sr, c_er) - Add COST_ESTIMATE.md: full framework documentation including simulation results (8,748 HC / 8 SR / 3 ER, 0 liquidations) Results: 8,748 × c_hc + 8 × c_sr + 3 × c_er over 365 days, 100% survival
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Summary
HighTideAgent, using FlowCreditMarket.cdc thresholds (ER trigger 1.5 / SR trigger 1.1 / target HF 1.3)COST_ESTIMATE.mddocumenting the framework, methodology, and resultsResults
Cost formula:
8,748 × c_hc + 8 × c_sr + 3 × c_er0 liquidations. 100% survival. Final HF 1.228.
How to run
Test plan
run_cost_estimate_2022.pyand verify 0 liquidations, N_total ≤ 8,760plot_cost_estimate_report.pyand verify both figures generate without errorgenerate_cost_table.pyand verify CSV and PNG are written to results folder