Detect informed money on Polymarket before the market moves.
Prediction markets are driven by supply and demand, but a small subset of traders — insiders, staffers, well-connected individuals — leak private knowledge into the market through their wallets. Unlike regulated equities, Polymarket's on-chain settlement means these moves are visible instantly. This project exploits that transparency.
The goal: identify "informed actors" by their trading fingerprints and, eventually, mirror their positions programmatically.
Build a wallet profiling system that separates lucky gamblers from informed insiders using three filters:
- Early Bird — Wallets entering markets at low probability (<20%) with disproportionately large positions.
- Burner Heuristic — Fresh wallets with zero history that deposit large USDC to bet on a single niche event.
- Persistence & Win Rate — "Sharp" wallets maintaining near-100% win rates in specific niches (geopolitics, FDA approvals, etc.) over months.
Once high-confidence insiders are identified:
- Mirror Trading — Automatically replicate trades from tracked wallets.
- Proportional Sizing — Scale bets based on the target's conviction level (% of wallet risked).
- Latency Advantage — Execute within seconds of the target's transaction via direct API/chain monitoring.