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gigichengnc merged 1 commit into from
Aug 21, 2026
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README: put the null-audit correction first #3

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27 changes: 22 additions & 5 deletions README.md
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# Sector Rotation Forecasting Reconstruction
# Sector Rotation Forecasting

[![Tests](https://github.com/gigichengnc/Sector-Rotation-Forecasting/actions/workflows/tests.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/gigichengnc/Sector-Rotation-Forecasting/actions/workflows/tests.yml)
[![Python](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.11-blue.svg)](pyproject.toml)
[![Research status](https://img.shields.io/badge/status-post--publication%20audit-orange.svg)](#current-research-conclusion)

I first conceived and started this **sector-rotation forecasting project for an HKSI competition in December 2025**. In 2026 I returned to the surviving source, audited the implementation, rebuilt the research workflow, and then subjected the rebuilt result to a second post-publication audit.
**A reproducible audit and rebuild of a 2025 RRG-style sector-forecasting prototype.**

The project began with a simple question:
The main finding is now methodological, not a forecasting headline: the legacy coordinate target can produce a similar linear-model advantage on synthetic geometric random walks with no serial predictability. The old **80.6% vs 74.0%** result is therefore retained as experiment history but **retired as evidence of market predictability**.

> Can recent sector-rotation history help predict what happens next?
The redesigned research question uses fully future sector return relative to SPY as the target. No new market-signal claim is made yet.

The historical project was inspired by Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) concepts. This repository uses an independently developed, transparent **RRG-style approximation** based on relative strength and momentum. It does **not** claim proprietary JdK RS-Ratio / RS-Momentum equivalence.
## Run it

```bash
python -m pip install -r rebuild/2026/requirements-lock.txt
python -m pip install -e . --no-deps --no-build-isolation
pytest
python rebuild/2026/scripts/run_synthetic_null.py
```

The package also retains the legacy coordinate-forecast workflow:

```bash
sector-rotation forecast
```

> **Interpretation boundary:** `sector-rotation forecast` produces auditable RRG-style coordinate forecasts, not expected returns, calibrated probabilities, buy/sell signals, or validated evidence of market predictability. The first forecast-driven top-3 strategy was not supported by its backtest.

This project was conceived for an HKSI competition in December 2025 and later reconstructed and audited independently. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by HKSI or RRG Research.

## Current research conclusion

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