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💼 Leveraged Buyout (LBO) Model

Excel Finance License Status

A full Leveraged Buyout model simulating a Private Equity acquisition — from entry price and debt financing through 5 years of cash flow-driven debt paydown, to exit and IRR/MoIC returns calculation.


📌 Overview

An LBO is how Private Equity firms buy companies: using mostly borrowed money, letting the company's own cash flows pay off the debt, then selling it 5 years later for a large profit.

This model simulates that entire process end-to-end — the same architecture used by analysts at KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo.

Buy company with debt → Company pays off debt with its own cash → Sell company → Profit

🗂️ Project Structure

lbo-model/
│
├── model/
│   └── lbo_model.xlsx              # Full LBO model (5 tabs)
│
├── docs/
│   ├── assumptions.md              # Entry/exit multiples, debt terms, growth rates
│   └── returns_analysis.md        # IRR sensitivity table walkthrough
│
├── data/
│   └── target_company_10k.pdf      # Source annual report
│
├── screenshots/
│   ├── sources_uses.png
│   ├── debt_schedule.png
│   └── returns_summary.png
│
├── .gitignore
├── LICENSE
└── README.md

🔬 Model Architecture — The 5 Gears

⚙️ Gear 1 — Entry & Purchase Price

The PE firm buys the company using an EBITDA Multiple:

Enterprise Value = EBITDA × Entry Multiple

Example: $100M EBITDA × 10.0x = $1,000M Purchase Price
Input Value
LTM EBITDA $100M
Entry Multiple 10.0x
Enterprise Value $1,000M
Less: Existing Debt ($200M)
Equity Purchase Price $800M

⚙️ Gear 2 — Sources & Uses of Funds

Uses (what we're paying for):

Item Amount
Equity Purchase Price $800M
Refinanced Debt $200M
Transaction Fees $25M
Total Uses $1,025M

Sources (where the money comes from):

Tranche Amount % of Total
Senior Term Loan $500M 49%
Subordinated Debt $200M 20%
PE Sponsor Equity $325M 32%
Total Sources $1,025M 100%

⚙️ Gear 3 — The 3-Statement Engine

The integrated Income Statement / Balance Sheet / Cash Flow model projects 5 years of Free Cash Flow — the fuel that pays down the debt.

(This model is built on top of the standalone 3-Statement Model — see that repo.)


⚙️ Gear 4 — The Debt Schedule (Core Mechanic)

Every dollar of Free Cash Flow is swept into a Debt Waterfall — paid off in strict seniority order:

Free Cash Flow
      │
      ├─► 1. Mandatory Interest (paid first, always)
      ├─► 2. Revolver Paydown
      ├─► 3. Senior Term Loan Amortisation
      └─► 4. Subordinated / Mezzanine Debt
Year FCF Debt Repaid Remaining Debt
1 $85M $85M $615M
2 $92M $92M $523M
3 $101M $101M $422M
4 $110M $110M $312M
5 $120M $120M $192M

The faster the paydown, the higher the returns.


⚙️ Gear 5 — Exit & Returns (The Payday)

At Year 5, the PE firm sells the company (assuming the same EBITDA multiple):

Exit Enterprise Value  =  Year-5 EBITDA  ×  Exit Multiple
Equity to PE Firm      =  Exit EV  −  Remaining Debt

IRR    =  Annualised return on invested capital  (target: 20–25%)
MoIC   =  Total cash returned / cash invested    (target: 2.5x–3.5x)

Returns Sensitivity Table

8.0x Exit 9.0x Exit 10.0x Exit 11.0x Exit
3% growth XX% IRR XX% IRR XX% IRR XX% IRR
5% growth XX% IRR XX% IRR XX% IRR XX% IRR
7% growth XX% IRR XX% IRR XX% IRR XX% IRR

(Populated in model — IRR is highly sensitive to exit multiple and growth rate)


🚀 How to Use

  1. Download model/lbo_model.xlsx
  2. Navigate the 5 tabs: Cover → Sources & Uses → 3-Statement → Debt Schedule → Returns
  3. Adjust blue cells only: entry multiple, debt tranches, growth rate, exit multiple
  4. Watch the IRR and MoIC update in the Returns tab automatically
  5. Run scenarios: change exit multiple from 8x → 12x and see how returns shift

📐 Wall Street Formatting

Convention Rule
🔵 Blue font Hard-coded inputs (entry multiple, debt terms)
⚫ Black font Formula outputs (all calculated cells)
Negatives In parentheses (500) — never minus signs
Units $ in millions stated in every tab header

🧰 Tools Used

Tool Purpose
Microsoft Excel Full model build
SEC EDGAR 10-K source financials
Yahoo Finance Market comps for entry/exit multiple

📄 License

MIT — see LICENSE

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Leveraged Buyout (LBO) model simulating a Private Equity acquisition — from entry pricing and debt financing through 5-year debt paydown to IRR/MoIC returns.

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