[vahid-ahmadi]

Fixes the two should-address points from María's review of #10. Neither changes a published number, so the results are rebuilt with the model-v2 rebuild (#14) rather than now.

Changes

1. The backtests use the fiscal rounding (her A1).
   • ts_backtest.gap_pct now rounds inputs and rates to 0.1 point (rules.round_rate), as the fiscal runs do. The expected-value backtest and the past-years check now score the same policy arithmetic as the expected saving. decimals=None keeps the unrounded gap.
   • Test: María's example, the random path's April 2030-33 inputs, gives 0.3846% rounded against 0.5263% unrounded.
2. A finished job can't leave anything running (her A2).
   • engine.run_child now kills the job's process group once the job exits, before the worker directory is released. A descendant that closed its output can no longer outlive the job.
   • Test: a job that exits 0 leaving a grandchild running.

Why the results check is red

engine.py is in the model-run cache key, so this change makes every job rerun. test_not_stale therefore fails until the next full rebuild, and so does test_method_text_percentiles_match_the_past_years_check: it now checks that the text quotes whatever percentile the file records, and the committed file still says 55. Fix 2 changes no output. Fix 1 changes only backtest diagnostics, not the expected saving, its range or the household results:

• expected_value.backtest;
• the past-years check: the untilted model's realised 2012-start percentile goes from 55.2 to 55.8, so the method text and METHOD.md now say 56th, and the tilted model stays 93rd;
• trajectories.backtest (*_crps, *_inside, realised_gap_pct).

The calibration choice still holds after rounding: means_shift bias is −0.60 (SE 0.57) as published and 0.20 (SE 0.45) as in law, and test_the_calibration_choice_still_holds passes. Merge this into the model-v2 branch, or merge it just before that rebuild.

Checks

• 177 passed locally. The only failure is test_not_stale, as above.
• test_jobs and test_cache_key pass.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated
uk-triple-lock	Ready	Preview	Oct 1, 2026 3:23pm UTC

[vahid-ahmadi]

Folded into model-v2 (#24) with all commits and authorship kept, and checked independently: nothing missing or reverted. Closing in favour of #24. The branch stays, so this can be reopened if model-v2 doesn't land.