MaxGhenis · Oct 12, 2026 · Oct 12, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/584.changed.md b/changelog.d/584.changed.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Certify policyengine-uk 2.126.12 with policyengine-uk-data 1.58.0 (`enhanced_frs_2024_25`), on the publisher's compatibility claim in the 1.58.0 release manifest; policyengine-core stays at 3.33.0. Reforms keyed from 6 April, such as `2026-04-06.2100-12-31`, now apply in that fiscal year. Baseline UK results change with policyengine-uk 2.125.2 to 2.126.12, chiefly fuel duty (+2.04%, from litre divisors on DESNZ pump prices), income tax (+0.29% to +0.45%, from banding savings and dividend income above property income), Carer's Allowance (-2.2% to -3.5%, from applying the earnings limit) and Pension Credit in 2025.
diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml
@@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ graph = [
 models = [
     "policyengine-core==3.33.0",
     "policyengine-us==2.2.1",
-    "policyengine-uk==2.125.1",
+    "policyengine-uk==2.126.12",
     "spm-calculator==1.0.0",
 ]
 uk = [
     "policyengine-core==3.33.0",
-    "policyengine-uk==2.125.1",
+    "policyengine-uk==2.126.12",
 ]
 us = [
     "policyengine-core==3.33.0",
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ dev = [
     "hypothesis>=6.100.0",
     "policyengine-core==3.33.0",
     "policyengine-us==2.2.1",
-    "policyengine-uk==2.125.1",
+    "policyengine-uk==2.126.12",
     "spm-calculator==1.0.0",
 ]
 

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json b/src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
         "built_with_model_git_sha": "4cbedbecca352f52dffe47e849553c2759a00711",
         "built_with_model_version": "2.122.2",
         "certified_by": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
-        "certified_for_model_version": "2.125.1",
+        "certified_for_model_version": "2.126.12",
         "compatibility_basis": "legacy_compatible_model_package",
         "data_build_fingerprint": "sha256:c094d7006fdd81df220090284212f16bbffb15624643bc442c4bb3e1b1e5dac8",
         "data_build_id": "policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0"
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@
       "data_package": {
         "name": "policyengine-uk-data",
         "release_manifest_path": "releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json",
-        "release_manifest_revision": "fdeba38517bd86067f34c0a5d8ed8923efb3b10a",
+        "release_manifest_revision": "0aa3eee1cdae8f8125f4aff126a8f01957595dc3",
         "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private",
         "repo_type": "model",
         "version": "1.58.0"
@@ -95,19 +95,19 @@
       "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@1.58.0",
       "model_package": {
         "name": "policyengine-uk",
-        "sha256": "a0983b4cef868467578a4fd0d163a977a0da8f710dd5194ec01c75f66d512c5a",
-        "version": "2.125.1",
-        "wheel_url": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/ec/3a/1d90bad4346d1a8c2715be211ed3d3d7f48917da0d90405b8257b7304091/policyengine_uk-2.125.1-py3-none-any.whl"
+        "sha256": "4aa6d7ba411de0009d460efdc4e4992f2e8c89cbf8ec419024b1bce89d407ace",
+        "version": "2.126.12",
+        "wheel_url": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/4f/3f/0a611e9b25beb75db3f2f521d359eabad0d1ab4e50194b866663355591ff/policyengine_uk-2.126.12-py3-none-any.whl"
       },
       "policyengine_version": "6.3.0",
       "region_datasets": {
         "national": {
           "path_template": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5"
         }
       },
-      "release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/fdeba38517bd86067f34c0a5d8ed8923efb3b10a/releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json",
+      "release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/0aa3eee1cdae8f8125f4aff126a8f01957595dc3/releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json",
       "schema_version": 1,
-      "source_manifest_uri": "hf://model/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private@fdeba38517bd86067f34c0a5d8ed8923efb3b10a/releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json",
+      "source_manifest_uri": "hf://model/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private@0aa3eee1cdae8f8125f4aff126a8f01957595dc3/releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json",
       "version": "policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0"
     },
     "us": {
@@ -310,10 +310,10 @@
     "policyengine-uk": {
       "country": "uk",
       "import_name": "policyengine_uk",
-      "install_requirement": "policyengine-uk==2.125.1",
+      "install_requirement": "policyengine-uk==2.126.12",
       "name": "policyengine-uk",
       "role": "country_model",
-      "version": "2.125.1"
+      "version": "2.126.12"
     },
     "policyengine-us": {
       "country": "us",

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/bundle/uk.trace.tro.jsonld b/src/policyengine/data/bundle/uk.trace.tro.jsonld
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@
               "trov:hasArtifact": {
                 "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest"
               },
-              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/fdeba38517bd86067f34c0a5d8ed8923efb3b10a/releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json"
+              "trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/resolve/0aa3eee1cdae8f8125f4aff126a8f01957595dc3/releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json"
             },
             {
               "@id": "arrangement/1/location/dataset",
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@
               "trov:hasArtifact": {
                 "@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel"
               },
-              "trov:hasLocation": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/ec/3a/1d90bad4346d1a8c2715be211ed3d3d7f48917da0d90405b8257b7304091/policyengine_uk-2.125.1-py3-none-any.whl"
+              "trov:hasLocation": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/4f/3f/0a611e9b25beb75db3f2f521d359eabad0d1ab4e50194b866663355591ff/policyengine_uk-2.126.12-py3-none-any.whl"
             }
           ]
         }
@@ -75,14 +75,14 @@
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for uk",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "5880d61838b08e6e0aa94c5ff8b6b0806892efae4f0a1c262319b9ce722dff13"
+            "trov:sha256": "2677e139e19ba2dfd0e06b03f476e5b685b457b2b85812d7bf63f3bfa4eedda8"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine-uk-data release manifest 1.58.0",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "ddd63e1f7755ee358c4ede9050bfdde09f3a80f48a5c0d8ee9d1fb531e4a1a07"
+            "trov:sha256": "9bde769f476b0c550dc1a40862e413e95a18185ae6beffc970551913ea5e4613"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/dataset",
@@ -94,15 +94,15 @@
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel",
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
-            "schema:name": "policyengine-uk==2.125.1 wheel",
+            "schema:name": "policyengine-uk==2.126.12 wheel",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/zip",
-            "trov:sha256": "a0983b4cef868467578a4fd0d163a977a0da8f710dd5194ec01c75f66d512c5a"
+            "trov:sha256": "4aa6d7ba411de0009d460efdc4e4992f2e8c89cbf8ec419024b1bce89d407ace"
           }
         ],
         "trov:hasFingerprint": {
           "@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
           "@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
-          "trov:sha256": "5a84f161fc95544ff2d6d8bfbcc3e8dd10e8573b8bc7e3b9b876b9f1b115d703"
+          "trov:sha256": "1c5e7030b9bfc4b54d4d8d2f9806d79f97fa042f5b0de41f92d38075930f0725"
         }
       },
       "trov:hasPerformance": {
@@ -111,12 +111,12 @@
         "pe:builtWithModelGitSha": "4cbedbecca352f52dffe47e849553c2759a00711",
         "pe:builtWithModelVersion": "2.122.2",
         "pe:certifiedBy": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
-        "pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "2.125.1",
+        "pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "2.126.12",
         "pe:compatibilityBasis": "legacy_compatible_model_package",
         "pe:dataBuildFingerprint": "sha256:c094d7006fdd81df220090284212f16bbffb15624643bc442c4bb3e1b1e5dac8",
         "pe:dataBuildId": "policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0",
         "pe:emittedIn": "repository-bundle",
-        "rdfs:comment": "Certification of build policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0 for policyengine-uk 2.125.1.",
+        "rdfs:comment": "Certification of build policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0 for policyengine-uk 2.126.12.",
         "trov:accessedArrangement": {
           "@id": "arrangement/1"
         },

diff --git a/src/policyengine/data/bundle/us.trace.tro.jsonld b/src/policyengine/data/bundle/us.trace.tro.jsonld
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@
             "@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
             "schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for us",
             "trov:mimeType": "application/json",
-            "trov:sha256": "5880d61838b08e6e0aa94c5ff8b6b0806892efae4f0a1c262319b9ce722dff13"
+            "trov:sha256": "2677e139e19ba2dfd0e06b03f476e5b685b457b2b85812d7bf63f3bfa4eedda8"
           },
           {
             "@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@
         "trov:hasFingerprint": {
           "@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
           "@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
-          "trov:sha256": "c5765f37db02194b84a3100e16426431eded1862eb1332855db27507eca18248"
+          "trov:sha256": "065a4e0ae179fe96c4dd4646c96c437c3c7bdeaccf3d8045d418faa624da5ea7"
         }
       },
       "trov:hasPerformance": {

diff --git a/tests/test_models.py b/tests/test_models.py
@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ def test_has_release_manifest_metadata(self):
         assert uk_latest.release_manifest is not None
         assert uk_latest.release_manifest.country_id == "uk"
         assert uk_latest.model_package.name == "policyengine-uk"
-        assert uk_latest.model_package.version == "2.125.1"
+        assert uk_latest.model_package.version == "2.126.12"
         assert uk_latest.data_package.name == "policyengine-uk-data"
         assert uk_latest.data_package.version == "1.58.0"
         assert (

diff --git a/tests/test_release_manifests.py b/tests/test_release_manifests.py
@@ -75,11 +75,11 @@
     "hf://policyengine/populace-us/populace_us_2024_acs_local.h5"
     f"@{US_LOCAL_AREA_RELEASE_ID}"
 )
-UK_MODEL_VERSION = "2.125.1"
+UK_MODEL_VERSION = "2.126.12"
 UK_BUILT_WITH_MODEL_VERSION = "2.122.2"
 UK_DATA_RELEASE_VERSION = "1.58.0"
 UK_DATA_RELEASE_ID = "policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0"
-UK_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION = "fdeba38517bd86067f34c0a5d8ed8923efb3b10a"
+UK_DATA_RELEASE_REVISION = "0aa3eee1cdae8f8125f4aff126a8f01957595dc3"
 UK_DATA_RELEASE_PATH = "releases/1.58.0/release_manifest.json"
 # The prior certified default, kept resolvable via dataset_overlays.
 UK_POPULACE_RELEASE_ID = "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z"

diff --git a/uv.lock b/uv.lock
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		Certify policyengine-uk 2.126.12 with policyengine-uk-data 1.58.0 (`enhanced_frs_2024_25`), on the publisher's compatibility claim in the 1.58.0 release manifest; policyengine-core stays at 3.33.0. Reforms keyed from 6 April, such as `2026-04-06.2100-12-31`, now apply in that fiscal year. Baseline UK results change with policyengine-uk 2.125.2 to 2.126.12, chiefly fuel duty (+2.04%, from litre divisors on DESNZ pump prices), income tax (+0.29% to +0.45%, from banding savings and dividend income above property income), Carer's Allowance (-2.2% to -3.5%, from applying the earnings limit) and Pension Credit in 2025.