Use Alaska's 2015 to 2021 dividend payments, and stop carrying energy relief past 2026

changelog.d/ak-pfd-energy-relief-history.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Give Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend and energy relief the amounts Alaska paid in each year from 2015, the first year PolicyEngine models, to 2021 (#5148). PolicyEngine had carried 2022's $2,622 dividend and $662 energy relief back to those years. The PFD Division reports dividends of $2,072 in 2015, $1,022 in 2016, $1,100 in 2017, $1,600 in 2018, $1,606 in 2019, $992 in 2020 and $1,114 in 2021, with no energy relief. From 2027, PolicyEngine carries the 2026 dividend of $1,000 forward and sets energy relief to zero until Alaska sets new amounts.

docs/validation/alaska-pfd.md

@@ -44,6 +44,33 @@ With only the two payment inputs removed, this person's calculated 2022 regular
 PFD is \$2,622, energy relief is \$662, and federal AGI is \$52,622. With both inputs
 set to zero as above, federal AGI is \$50,000.
 
+## Amounts by year
+
+PolicyEngine sets `gov.states.ak.dor.permanent_fund_dividend` and
+`gov.states.ak.dor.energy_relief` to what Alaska paid each eligible person in
+each year from 2015, the first year it models:
+
+| Year | Dividend | Energy relief | Source |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 2015 | \$2,072 | \$0 | [PFD Division summary table](https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments); [2019 annual report](https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2019-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=24) |
+| 2016 | \$1,022 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 annual report |
+| 2017 | \$1,100 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 and [2021](https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2021-pfd-annual-report---final.pdf#page=24) annual reports |
+| 2018 | \$1,600 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 and 2021 annual reports |
+| 2019 | \$1,606 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 and 2021 annual reports |
+| 2020 | \$992 | \$0 | Summary table; 2021 annual report |
+| 2021 | \$1,114 | \$0 | Summary table; 2021 annual report |
+| 2022 | \$2,622 | \$662 | [Alaska DOR release 23-002](https://dor.alaska.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/2023_02_17-dor-response-to-irs-guidance-on-2022-pfd.pdf#page=1) (Alaska paid \$2,621.81 and \$662.19) |
+| 2023 | \$1,312 | \$0 | [2023 annual report](https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2023-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=3) |
+| 2024 | \$1,403.83 | \$298.17 | [Alaska DOR release 24-005](https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2024/09/19/department-of-revenue-announces-2024-permanent-fund-dividend-amount-and-energy-relief) |
+| 2025 | \$1,000 | \$0 | [Sec. 25(d), ch. 10, SLA 2025](https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0053Z.PDF#page=89); [Alaska DOR release 25-004](https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2025/09/22/department-of-revenue-announces-2025-permanent-fund-dividend-amount) |
+| 2026 | \$1,000 | \$200 | [Sec. 18(d)](https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0263Z.PDF#page=87) and [sec. 13](https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0263Z.PDF#page=84), ch. 34, SLA 2026; [Alaska DOR release 26-004](https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2026/09/28/department-of-revenue-announces-2026-permanent-fund-dividend-amount) |
+
+Alaska sets each year's dividend in its budget and adds energy relief only in
+years when it appropriates a one-time payment. It has set no dividend and
+appropriated no energy relief for 2027 or later. From 2027, PolicyEngine carries
+the 2026 dividend of \$1,000 forward and sets energy relief to zero. To model
+amounts that Alaska sets later, supply either variable as an input.
+
 ## The 2022 regular dividend and energy relief split
 
 Alaska paid \$3,284 in total: \$2,621.81 of regular PFD and \$662.19 of supplemental

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/energy_relief.yaml

@@ -1,21 +1,49 @@
-description: Alaska provides this one-time energy relief payment.
+description: Alaska provides this one-time energy relief payment with the Permanent Fund Dividend in years when it appropriates one.
 
 values:
+  2015-01-01: 0
   2022-01-01: 662
   2023-01-01: 0
   2024-01-01: 298.17
   2025-01-01: 0
   2026-01-01: 200
+  # Alaska appropriates each one-time payment in its budget, and it has
+  # appropriated none for 2027 or later.
+  2027-01-01: 0
 
 metadata:
   label: Alaska energy relief
   period: year
   unit: currency-USD
   reference:
-    # 2022 and 2023.
-    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Tax Information
-      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information
+    # 2015 to 2021: Alaska paid the dividend alone.
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, Summary of Dividend Applications & Payments
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2019 Annual Report
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2019-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=24
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2021 Annual Report
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2021-pfd-annual-report---final.pdf#page=24
+    # 2022: $662.19 of the $3,284 payment, which PolicyEngine rounds to $662.
+    - title: Alaska Department of Revenue, DOR Response to IRS Guidance on 2022 PFD (release 23-002)
+      href: https://dor.alaska.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/2023_02_17-dor-response-to-irs-guidance-on-2022-pfd.pdf#page=1
+    # 2023: Alaska paid the $1,312 dividend alone.
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2023 Annual Report
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2023-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=3
+    # 2024.
     - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend Amount and Energy Relief
       href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2024/09/19/department-of-revenue-announces-2024-permanent-fund-dividend-amount-and-energy-relief
-    - title: Budget heads to governor with $1,200 PFD attached
-      href: https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/05/21/budget-heads-governor-with-1200-pfd-attached/
+    # 2025: Alaska paid the $1,000 dividend alone.
+    - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2025 Permanent Fund Dividend Amount
+      href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2025/09/22/department-of-revenue-announces-2025-permanent-fund-dividend-amount
+    # 2026: in sec. 13, amending sec. 49(a), ch. 10, SLA 2025, the Legislature
+    # appropriated "the amount necessary, estimated to be $127,340,800, to pay a
+    # one-time energy relief payment of $200 as part of the permanent fund
+    # dividend". It put the payment first in line for the fiscal 2026
+    # unrestricted general fund revenue above $6.3 billion that remained after
+    # the year's other appropriations, up to $700 million. The Legislature
+    # counted the sec. 25(c) appropriation from the earnings reserve account in
+    # that revenue. DOR announced the payment in release 26-004.
+    - title: "Sec. 13, ch. 34, SLA 2026 (enrolled HB 263), amending sec. 49(a), ch. 10, SLA 2025 #page 84-85"
+      href: https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0263Z.PDF#page=84
+    - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2026 Permanent Fund Dividend
+      href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2026/09/28/department-of-revenue-announces-2026-permanent-fund-dividend-amount

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/permanent_fund_dividend.yaml

@@ -1,19 +1,40 @@
 description: Alaska provides this Permanent Fund Dividend amount.
 values:
+  2015-01-01: 2_072
+  2016-01-01: 1_022
+  2017-01-01: 1_100
+  2018-01-01: 1_600
+  2019-01-01: 1_606
+  2020-01-01: 992
+  2021-01-01: 1_114
   2022-01-01: 2_622
   2023-01-01: 1_312
   2024-01-01: 1_403.83
   2025-01-01: 1_000
+  # Alaska sets each year's dividend in its budget, and it has set none for
+  # 2027 or later, so PolicyEngine keeps the 2026 dividend for later years.
   2026-01-01: 1_000
 
 metadata:
   label: Alaska taxable permanent fund dividend
   period: year
   unit: currency-USD
   reference:
-    # 2022 and 2023.
-    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Tax Information
-      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information
+    # 2015 to 2021.
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, Summary of Dividend Applications & Payments
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments
+    # 2015 to 2019, in the five-year dividend calculation.
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2019 Annual Report
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2019-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=24
+    # 2017 to 2021, in the five-year dividend calculation.
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2021 Annual Report
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2021-pfd-annual-report---final.pdf#page=24
+    # 2022: $2,621.81 of the $3,284 payment, which PolicyEngine rounds to $2,622.
+    - title: Alaska Department of Revenue, DOR Response to IRS Guidance on 2022 PFD (release 23-002)
+      href: https://dor.alaska.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/2023_02_17-dor-response-to-irs-guidance-on-2022-pfd.pdf#page=1
+    # 2023.
+    - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2023 Annual Report
+      href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2023-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=3
     # 2024.
     - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend Amount and Energy Relief
       href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2024/09/19/department-of-revenue-announces-2024-permanent-fund-dividend-amount-and-energy-relief

policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_energy_relief.yaml

@@ -26,3 +26,59 @@
     state_code: WA
   output:
     ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 5, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2015.
+  period: 2015
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 6, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2016.
+  period: 2016
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 7, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2017.
+  period: 2017
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 8, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2018.
+  period: 2018
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 9, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2019.
+  period: 2019
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 10, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2020.
+  period: 2020
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 11, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2021.
+  period: 2021
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+
+- name: Case 12, Alaska has appropriated no energy relief for 2027.
+  period: 2027
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_energy_relief: 0

policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_permanent_fund_dividend.yaml

@@ -26,3 +26,99 @@
     state_code: WA
   output:
     ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 0
+
+- name: Case 5, Alaska paid a $2,072 dividend in 2015.
+  period: 2015
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 2_072
+
+- name: Case 6, Alaska paid a $1,022 dividend in 2016.
+  period: 2016
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_022
+
+- name: Case 7, Alaska paid a $1,100 dividend in 2017.
+  period: 2017
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_100
+
+- name: Case 8, Alaska paid a $1,600 dividend in 2018.
+  period: 2018
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_600
+
+- name: Case 9, Alaska paid a $1,606 dividend in 2019.
+  period: 2019
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_606
+
+- name: Case 10, Alaska paid a $992 dividend in 2020.
+  period: 2020
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 992
+
+- name: Case 11, Alaska paid a $1,114 dividend in 2021.
+  period: 2021
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_114
+
+- name: Case 12, Alaska has set no dividend for 2027, so PolicyEngine keeps the 2026 dividend.
+  period: 2027
+  input:
+    state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_000
+
+- name: Case 13, a 2019 filer with $50,000 of wages gets the $1,606 dividend and no energy relief, so federal gross income and AGI come to $51,606.
+  period: 2019
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+        employment_income: 50_000
+    tax_units:
+      tax_unit:
+        members: [person]
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+        state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_606
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+    irs_gross_income: 51_606
+    adjusted_gross_income: 51_606
+
+- name: Case 14, a 2027 filer with $50,000 of wages gets the $1,000 dividend and no energy relief, so federal gross income and AGI come to $51,000.
+  period: 2027
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+        employment_income: 50_000
+    tax_units:
+      tax_unit:
+        members: [person]
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+        state_code: AK
+  output:
+    ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_000
+    ak_energy_relief: 0
+    irs_gross_income: 51_000
+    adjusted_gross_income: 51_000

policyengine_us/tests/test_ak_permanent_fund_dividend_amounts.py

@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+"""Invariants for the amounts Alaska paid with each Permanent Fund Dividend.
+
+1. For each dividend year from 2015 to 2026, the dividend plus energy relief
+   equals the whole payment per eligible individual that Alaska published. The
+   PFD Division publishes 2015 to 2025 in its summary table, and the Department
+   of Revenue published 2026 in release 26-004. PolicyEngine rounds 2022's
+   $2,621.81 and $662.19 to $2,622 and $662, which keeps the $3,284 total.
+2. From 2015 to 2100, the dividend stays positive and energy relief never
+   falls below zero.
+3. Alaska has set neither amount for 2027 or later, so from 2027 the dividend
+   stays at the 2026 amount and energy relief at zero.
+
+The YAML tests pin each year's dividend and energy relief one at a time. These
+tests compare the two parameters' sum with the published whole payment, and
+draw years beyond the published ones.
+"""
+
+import pytest
+from hypothesis import given
+from hypothesis import strategies as st
+
+from policyengine_us.system import system
+from policyengine_us.tools.parameters import FIRST_MODELED_YEAR
+
+# "Dividend Amount" in the PFD Division's Summary of Dividend Applications &
+# Payments, https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments
+# (2015 to 2025), and the $1,000 dividend with the $200 energy relief payment in
+# Department of Revenue release 26-004 (2026).
+WHOLE_PAYMENT = {
+    2015: 2_072,
+    2016: 1_022,
+    2017: 1_100,
+    2018: 1_600,
+    2019: 1_606,
+    2020: 992,
+    2021: 1_114,
+    2022: 3_284,
+    2023: 1_312,
+    2024: 1_702,
+    2025: 1_000,
+    2026: 1_200,
+}
+LAST_SET_YEAR = max(WHOLE_PAYMENT)
+
+
+def amounts(year):
+    # Read the two parameters at the instant, not the whole tree, which would
+    # build every parameter for each year drawn.
+    dor = system.parameters.gov.states.ak.dor
+    instant = f"{year}-01-01"
+    return (
+        float(dor.permanent_fund_dividend(instant)),
+        float(dor.energy_relief(instant)),
+    )
+
+
+def test_published_years_start_at_first_modeled_year():
+    assert min(WHOLE_PAYMENT) == FIRST_MODELED_YEAR
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", sorted(WHOLE_PAYMENT))
+def test_dividend_and_energy_relief_add_up_to_the_published_payment(year):
+    dividend, energy_relief = amounts(year)
+    assert dividend + energy_relief == pytest.approx(WHOLE_PAYMENT[year], abs=0.005)
+
+
+@given(st.integers(min_value=FIRST_MODELED_YEAR, max_value=2100))
+def test_amounts_stay_in_bounds(year):
+    dividend, energy_relief = amounts(year)
+    assert dividend > 0
+    assert energy_relief >= 0
+
+
+@given(st.integers(min_value=LAST_SET_YEAR + 1, max_value=2100))
+def test_later_years_carry_the_last_dividend_and_no_energy_relief(year):
+    assert amounts(year) == (amounts(LAST_SET_YEAR)[0], 0)