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Parent/caretaker Medicaid limits: 2018-2023 values for TX, FL, MS and WY are rounded shares above each state's dollar standard #10491

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Description

@PavelMakarchuk

Problem

gov.hhs.medicaid.eligibility.categories.parent.income_limit stores the 2018-2023 parent and caretaker limits for Texas, Florida, Mississippi and Wyoming as KFF-style rounded shares (2018 and 2021 entries). These four states set the limit as a frozen monthly dollar standard, so the share falls each year as the poverty guidelines rise. #10252 sets 2024 and 2025 (and #9475 set 2026) from each state's published standard for a family of three, with the 5-point MAGI disregard. The years before 2024 still use the old shares, which are above the published standards in most years.

Example: a Texas parent at 0.17 FPL in 2023 is a Medicaid parent in PolicyEngine (limit 0.19), but not under Texas Works Handbook C-131.2 ($230/month for a family of three, 0.161 with the disregard).

DTrim99 raised this in the review of #10252 (Suggestion 1). #10252 keeps the scope of #10151 (2024 and 2025) and renames its Case 24 to point here.

Values by the same method

Family-of-three guideline from gov/hhs/fpg.yaml: $20,780 (2018), $21,330 (2019), $21,720 (2020), $21,960 (2021), $23,030 (2022), $24,860 (2023). TX, FL and WY: monthly standard x 12 / guideline + 0.05. MS: the Appendix A-3 COE-075 figure already includes the 5% disregard, so nothing is added.

Year TX main / $230 FL main / $486 MS main / COE-075 WY main / $873
2018 0.20 / 0.183 0.34 / 0.331 0.28 / 0.272 ($471) 0.59 / 0.554
2019 0.20 / 0.179 0.34 / 0.323 0.28 / 0.266 ($473) 0.59 / 0.541
2020 0.20 / 0.177 0.34 / 0.319 0.28 / 0.262 ($475) 0.59 / 0.532
2021 0.19 / 0.176 0.32 / 0.316 0.26 / 0.260 ($476) 0.56 / 0.527
2022 0.19 / 0.170 0.32 / 0.303 0.26 / 0.250 ($480) 0.56 / 0.505
2023 0.19 / 0.161 0.32 / 0.285 0.26 / 0.236 ($488) 0.56 / 0.471

KFF's parent series (family of three, disregard included, truncated) gives January 2021 / 2022 / 2023: TX 0.17 / 0.16 / 0.16, FL 0.31 / 0.30 / 0.28, WY 0.52 / 0.50 / 0.47. These agree with the table. (KFF's January 2023 MS figure, 0.28, adds the disregard to a figure that already includes it: 0.236 + 0.05.)

Sources

Notes for the fix

  • The variable is annual and reads the January 1 value. The existing entries apply each MS March table from January 1; keep that convention.
  • No partner contract case for TX, FL, MS or WY has a 2018-2023 period on main (Texas partner cases are 2025 and 2026 only). Check this again before you change expected values.
  • Add an Axiom parity line for the backfill (rulespec-us has only the CMS December 2023 levels for these states).

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