Run CI on 28 pull requests merged together (not for merging)

.github/test_outcome_allowlist.toml

@@ -19,6 +19,18 @@
 # Keep entries narrow. An entry that matches nothing in a run is reported as a
 # warning; remove it once its bug is fixed. Failures can never be accepted.
 
+[[allow]]
+nodeid = "policyengine_uk/tests/test_subsample.py::test_neutralized_inputs_and_model_values_survive_subsampling[[]*]"
+outcome = "xfailed"
+reason = "^needs policyengine-core holder resync$"
+why = "Issue #2254 / PR #2265 waits for core to resync restored holders after subsampling. Both ownership variants retain every assertion under strict xfail."
+
+[[allow]]
+nodeid = "policyengine_uk/tests/test_input_records.py::test_restoring_reform_can_replace_a_neutralized_input[[]subsampled-*]"
+outcome = "xfailed"
+reason = "^needs policyengine-core holder resync$"
+why = "Issue #2254 / PR #2265 waits for core to accept writes immediately after restoring a subsampled holder. Direct supplied/model controls remain unmarked."
+
 [[allow]]
 nodeid = "policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_state_pension_properties.py::test_state_pension_does_not_change_partners_marriage_allowance"
 outcome = "xfailed"

.gitignore

@@ -57,6 +57,7 @@ policyengine_uk/calibration/*.h5
 !uprating_growth_factors.csv
 !policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/LHA/lha_published_rates_sources.csv
 !policyengine_uk/tests/fixtures/energy_prices/*.csv
+!policyengine_uk/tests/fixtures/sdlt_ltt_main_grid_2018_2030.csv
 
 # Virtual environments
 .venv/

changelog.d/1971.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Pay the legacy enhanced disability premium for an award of enhanced PIP daily living or armed forces independence payment as well as the highest DLA care rate, and apply its State Pension Credit age limit. Count an award only where its amount is positive, and count an amount entered without its category when it reaches `52 × (top weekly rate − £1)`. Give five working-age Council Tax Reduction schemes their own lists. Scottish councils count attendance allowance at either rate from April 2023, and the Scottish Ministers removed the age limit from June 2022. Merton, Kingston upon Thames and Westminster count either PIP daily living rate and omit armed forces independence payment; Newham counts either PIP daily living rate and armed forces independence payment. Apply Kingston upon Thames's own list in 2013-14 to 2017-18 and from 2023-24, and assume the Housing Benefit list in 2018-19 to 2022-23, for which the model cites no complete scheme text.

changelog.d/2004.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now calculates Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions under each scheme's rules. Bands include their lower edge. For a non-exempt non-dependant outside remunerative work, including someone on Income Support, income-based JSA or income-related ESA, the council deducts the lowest amount whatever their income. The council bands a couple on its joint gross income plus the family's awards, counting Universal Credit after the benefit cap and before debt deductions, and normally makes one deduction, the higher. Under Wales's working-age scheme, it deducts both members' amounts when their own Universal Credit award assesses either member. It deducts separately for each other adult. The model counts other investment income, ISA interest and ISA dividends in gross income, and treats a self-employment or property loss as nil. Councils apply the claimant and non-dependant exemptions, and for the Universal Credit exemption the model reads Universal Credit's own calculation of earned income. The model gives the England pensioner, Scottish and Welsh Council Tax Reduction schemes their own scales from 2013-14, and follows each jointly liable applicant's own scheme. For the Universal Credit benefit cap, the model now totals welfare benefits without Housing Benefit (`uc_benefit_cap_welfare_benefits`). A caller who supplies the combined total, `benefit_cap_welfare_benefits`, must also supply `housing_benefit_pre_benefit_cap` or `uc_benefit_cap_welfare_benefits` for every benefit unit; otherwise the model raises `ValueError` when it calculates the Universal Credit cap.

changelog.d/2008.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Give each member of the benefit unit aged 16 or over who is not the claimant or partner a bedroom in the Universal Credit LHA size criteria (UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 para 10(1)(b) and (c)), except a qualifying young person no one is responsible for (para 9(2)(g)) and a household head who does not claim and is not a qualifying young person the renter is responsible for, whom the formula treats as liable for the rent (para 9(2)(d)). The bedroom reads the definition that the housing cost contribution uses (is_benefit_unit_non_dependant_for_universal_credit), and the claim that bears an in-unit non-dependant's contribution has their bedroom.

changelog.d/2014.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+- Charge Universal Credit, Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions for members of the claimant's own benefit unit who are not the claimant, partner or a child or young person, such as an adult son (UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 para 9; HB Regs 2006 and HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 3; SI 2012/2885 reg 9 and the Welsh and Scottish equivalents). Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction apportion every non-dependant between joint occupiers or jointly liable applicants, a lodger's adult son included, and a household head is never her own benefit unit's non-dependant. Apply the Universal Credit renter exemption from housing cost contributions (Sch 4 para 15) where a claimant, not a partner whom reg 3(3) leaves out of the claim, is blind or receives a listed benefit, armed forces independence payment included (reg 2's attendance allowance), and give the para 16(2)(b) Pension Credit exemption only to the claimant or partner who receives it, so a pensioner's adult son is no longer exempt by her award.

changelog.d/2090.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now deducts from Council Tax Reduction income only the income tax and National Insurance each scheme allows: in Scotland's working-age scheme the extra tax earnings cause and the notional tax on self-employed profit, and in the pensioner schemes of England, Wales and Scotland that same earnings tax, the tax on the other counted income and the notional tax on profit, with no tax on savings, dividends, rent from property or the Scottish Carer Supplement, and no High Income Child Benefit Charge, where earnings do not raise them.

changelog.d/2106.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now sets the Personal Allowance, other allowances and trade loss relief against non-savings, savings and dividend income in the way that gives the least tax (ITA 2007 s. 25(2)), and from 2027-28 against other income before property, savings and dividend income (s. 25(3A)), where it previously always took them from non-savings income first. Pension relief stays on non-savings income, and the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings still follows the order non-savings, savings, dividends.

changelog.d/2120.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now counts a carer's Universal Credit award with the carer element, where the award comes to at least one penny, when deciding the severe disability premium and the Pension Credit severe disability addition, and in Scotland's working-age council tax reduction it counts such an award for the carer premium from 1 April 2022 (#2120, #2124).

changelog.d/2254.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+`Simulation.subsample()` no longer raises `TypeError` about a missing `dataset` argument: it keeps a weighted sample of households with every supplied weight total unchanged, and replaces the baseline and `dataset` with copies holding the same households. It keeps the stored inputs and model values of neutralised variables for the sampled records.

changelog.d/2307.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+`supplied_input` and `supplied_input_periods` no longer count a value cached over a supplied input as supplied, and read an input stored on disk from disk when a value is cached over it in memory (#2307).

changelog.d/2310.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Pay Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment, and count a carer for the Universal Credit carer element, on caring hours only where the new input `cares_for_severely_disabled_person` says the person cared for gets a qualifying disability benefit; it defaults to true, so results change only where a calculation sets it false.

changelog.d/2350.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now reports Scottish tax bands from 2017-18 using Scottish limits for non-savings, non-dividend income and UK limits for savings and dividends, and tests the Marriage Allowance income conditions directly under ITA 2007 s. 55B(2)(b) and (ba), allowing income at a rate limit and savings at a permitted nil rate. It gives the Marriage Allowance recipient a Step 6 tax reduction of the basic rate, or the Scottish basic rate, on the transferable amount (s. 55B(1) and (3)), in place of a deduction from taxable income. A reduction larger than the tax on earnings now also comes off the tax the Welsh working-age Council Tax Reduction route disregards on pensions and benefits.

changelog.d/2541.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Fixed the Carer's Allowance earnings limit treating earnings a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 limits (£128, £132, £139 and £151) as within them, and the Budget 2026 earnings taper taking a penny a week less than the pence above the limit off some awards. Net earnings for Carer's Allowance and the Scottish Carer Support Payment now apply the Computation of Earnings Regulations' rounding to each step in exact pence, and the formula gives the weekly excess over the Carer's Allowance limit in whole pence for a limit in whole pence.

changelog.d/2565.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model no longer pays income-related ESA to a claimant who has reached pensionable age, or to a couple that would get State Pension Credit without that award, whether the model's formulas, an input or a reform set that Pension Credit, and it pays no Pension Credit to a couple while it pays the couple income-related ESA (Welfare Reform Act 2007 s.1(3)(c) and Sch 1 para 6(1)(c) and (d)).

changelog.d/2577.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now counts overseas and other real estate in property wealth and in every means-tested capital assessment that includes household property. The Pension Credit formula now adds owned land, non-residential property and residential property other than the main residence to a financial-only capital report instead of letting the report replace them. The household land formula now applies regional land intensity to residential, non-residential and other real estate instead of property_wealth, and adds direct UK land once at full value. On the certified file, whose producer imputed the saved property_wealth total and the components separately, household land at data-year values rises from about £5,113bn to £5,521bn ([measurement](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/2688#issuecomment-6449462413)).

changelog.d/2633.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Added property tests for VAT grossing (the routing between the survey coverage and the deprecated combined factor, including the closeness band, and VAT as the statutory liability over the shipped product, times one minus private school fees' share of VAT receipts, on a vector of households), a test that the model grosses 2024 by the same product as later years, and a record of how the coverage of 0.67 performed on the Microcosm UK cuts `6cba5d71` and `a133f37a`, which followed `f9d1922c` (#2633).

changelog.d/2633.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Re-derived the survey VAT consumption coverage (`gov.simulation.vat.survey_consumption_coverage`) on the certified Microcosm UK 2024-25 national cut `a6299504` and moved it from 0.67 to 0.69: on that cut, 2024-25 total `vat` comes to £176.06bn at 0.67, 3.0% above OBR receipts of £170.994bn, and £171.02bn at 0.69, 0.02% above. Moved the deprecated combined factor `gov.simulation.microdata_vat_coverage` to the new product, 0.483.

changelog.d/2773.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The aggregate checker reports non-finite baseline values as blocking failures and continues checking readable households.

changelog.d/2791.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Pay the Scottish Carer Supplement for each award week in which Carer Support Payment is payable, up to 52 a year, counting the weeks from the larger of the payment and the entitlement before the overlapping-benefit reduction, so a carer paid 13 weeks of Carer Support Payment after moving to England gets £152.10 of supplement in 2026-27 rather than £608.40.

changelog.d/2801.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The model now dates the main residential rates in s. 55(1B) Table A from 4 December 2014, first-time buyers' relief from 22 November 2017, the higher rates for additional dwellings from 1 April 2016 and the 2016 non-residential rates from 17 March 2016. Before 17 March 2016 it computes SDLT on a non-residential purchase as one percentage of the whole price. It computes SDLT on purchases in Wales until 31 March 2018 and Land Transaction Tax from 1 April 2018.

changelog.d/2804.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Excluded from the Universal Credit qualifying young person test a person who reports their own income-related ESA, income-based JSA, Income Support, Housing Benefit, Child Tax Credit or Working Tax Credit in a year the model pays that benefit, unless the model's legacy closure, or for a claimant or partner the family's Universal Credit claim, has ended the award on that report or a reform neutralises it, and a claimant or partner on the couple's tax credit award (SI 2014/1230 reg. 28). The Universal Credit education condition reads that test as it stands on the first day of a claimant's Universal Credit award, while a Housing Benefit award (in Northern Ireland, a rent rebate or allowance) or an income-related ESA award the claim ends still runs, and reads every reported existing benefit for the migration day's reg. 60(1) protection, and the formula for Scotland's working-age Council Tax Reduction reads the Universal Credit Regulations 2013 reg. 5 test without reg. 28. The supplied input `housing_benefit_report_is_rate_rebate_only` marks a Northern Ireland report that covers only a rate rebate, which the claim ends the day before the award (SR 2016/226 reg. 6(2)).

changelog.d/2863.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The student loan repayment formula now charges Plan 5 borrowers nothing before 6 April 2026, as SI 2009/470 reg. 15(2BA) requires.

changelog.d/2874.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The test suite fails on any new random draw, sampling call or hash of entity ids in the package, and lists today's draws in a ratchet.

changelog.d/2875.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The real income variables now price to the year in gov.simulation.price_base_year (2026) instead of the year the simulation runs, and inflation_adjustment_ahc uses one price index on both sides of its ratio.

changelog.d/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Added the Child Benefit qualifying young person conditions for young people who have left education (Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7), which the Housing Benefit, legacy benefit and Council Tax Reduction young persons follow: a 16-year-old counts until the 31 August after their 16th birthday, in any year that starts before it, two new inputs place the 20-week extension period and the terminal date, and the model pays no Child Benefit for a young person who qualifies only through the terminal date and works 24 hours or more a week (reg. 7(3)). A young person who reports their own Universal Credit, Employment and Support Allowance or income-based Jobseeker's Allowance, or their own Income Support while DWP pays it, is not one, on any route (reg. 8).

changelog.d/certified-aggregate-one-shard.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Run every test in test_aggregate_impact_certified.py in one CI shard, so the other six shards no longer build its simulations.

changelog.d/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Counted a 16-year-old who has left education as a Child Tax Credit qualifying young person until the 31 August after their 16th birthday, in any year that starts before it (Child Tax Credit Regulations 2002 reg. 4), and added an input for the 20 weeks after leaving while registered for work or training (reg. 5(3)(b)). Remunerative work of 24 hours a week ends both for a young person who has left education (reg. 5(4)(a)), and Income Support received by the young person ends every route (reg. 5(4)(c)).

changelog.d/qyp-income-support-exclusion.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Tested that Pension Credit, Child Benefit and Child Tax Credit each stop counting a young person who receives Income Support in their own right as a qualifying young person, and Universal Credit does not (SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(5); Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 reg. 8(2)(a); CTC Regs 2002 reg. 5(4)(c); UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(5)), in the baseline and under reforms that remove Income Support. Pension Credit and Child Tax Credit read the benefit unit's calculated Income Support for whichever of the claimant and partner receives it, so a reform that pays no Income Support ends the exclusion for that person; Child Benefit reads the young person's own report while Income Support is in payment.

changelog.d/qyp-terminal-date-19.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Placed the 1 September following a qualifying young person's 19th birthday from their date of birth, for Universal Credit and Pension Credit (UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(b); SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(b)). The model now counts a 19-year-old in education for Universal Credit by default in household calculations, as the microdata already did, and applies the date to Pension Credit, which had no terminal date.

changelog.d/state-pension-reported-weeks.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Document that state_pension_reported is the weekly State Pension times 52, the weeks the State Pension components read it back at, and test the route from a survey's weekly amount to Income Tax under the Pension Tax Allowance.

changelog.d/uc-capital-sale-expenses.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Value Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, Income Support, income-based JSA, income-related ESA and Pension Credit capital at market value less 10% where a sale would incur expenses and less any debt secured on the asset, as UC Regs 2013 reg. 49(1) and its legacy equivalents require. The 10% applies to land, property and share-like capital (share_like_capital), not to cash savings; share-like capital also holds unit trusts, which have no costs of sale, and in datasets built before the private pension split it holds pension wealth, so the deduction reaches those too until the data separate them. Adds secured-debt inputs for other residential property, non-residential property and land, and the council tax reduction formula deducts the debt secured on land from the land on its own household route. Each programme rounds a fraction of a penny in its capital calculations as its regulations require: to the nearest penny for Universal Credit (UC Regs 2013 reg. 6(1)) and Housing Benefit, and down for the legacy benefits and Pension Credit. The model works out a Lifetime ISA's surrender value from its balance and rounds it under the same rule, and keeps explicit Lifetime ISA capital inputs and reformed valuation formulas.