[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2120
Fixes #2124

Since the approval at 649d3ad8f

• 99b284783 merges main at 5800015f2, which has taken in 15 pull requests since 0520d9646. Two files changed on both sides. In utils/supplied_inputs.py, the merge adds this branch's universal_credit entry to the module as Count only supplied inputs that are still stored in their tier #2308 and Bar income-related ESA at pensionable age and on Pension Credit #2807 rewrote it, with no conflict. In council_tax_reduction_premiums.py, Count enhanced PIP daily living and AFIP for the enhanced premium #2808 and this branch each add a term to the working-age premiums and rewrite the comment above them. The merge keeps both terms, Count enhanced PIP daily living and AFIP for the enhanced premium #2808's enhanced disability premium and this branch's carer premium, and one comment now describes all three substitutions. The merge also brings Require policyengine-core 3.34.9 #2897's policyengine-core>=3.34.9, whose cycle check matches 3.34.1's (The cycle and where the model cuts it).

Between the approvals at 835fab99c and 649d3ad8f

• c14d6a79d merges main at 0520d9646. It resolves one conflict, in the documentation of uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit.
• f43bdd292 updates the two veteran tests for the para 15 renter exemption that main now holds.
• 649d3ad8f applies this branch's reading of para 6(1)(c) to council_tax_reduction_working_age_carers, which Scotland's working-age award has read since Give Scotland and Wales working-age CTR their own rules #1966 (Scotland's working-age award).

What and why

DWP and councils count Universal Credit carer-element awards, as they count Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment, when deciding the premiums and additions below. The model left the awards out.

• Severe disability premium and Pension Credit addition (Count Universal Credit carer-element awards in the severe disability premium and addition carer test #2120). DWP and councils withhold the premium or addition when a carer "has an award of universal credit which includes the carer element in respect of caring for" the claimant (HB Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 14(2)(a)(iii) and (b)(iii); HB(SPC) Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 6(2); IS Regs 1987 Sch 2 para 13(2); SPC Regs 2002 Sch I para 1(1)(a)(iii), (b), (c)(iv) and (4)). Councils apply the same words in England's, Wales's and Scotland's pension-age council tax reduction schemes. is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient attributed only Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment.
• Scotland's working-age CTR carer premium (Scottish working-age CTR carer premium ignores the UC carer element limb (SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 para 6(1)(c)) #2124). The Scottish Ministers require councils to include the premium for an applicant or partner who has "an award of universal credit which includes the carer element described in regulation 29" (SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 para 6(1)(c)). carer_premium applied limbs (a) and (b) only. No other scheme's carer premium has limb (c): under HB Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 17, HB(SPC) Sch 3 para 9, IS Sch 2 para 14ZA, England SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 para 9, Wales WSI 2013/3029 Sch 2 para 9 and Sch 7 para 14, Scotland SSI 2012/319 Sch 1 para 10 and the pre-2022 SSI 2012/303 Sch 1 para 14, DWP and councils test entitlement to Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment.

Changes

• has_uc_award_with_carer_element (Person) reads the carer's actual award. It counts a claimant in respect of whom the award includes the carer element (uc_carer_element_included_for_claimant) where the family's award before the benefit cap (universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap) comes to more than nil. Parliament makes it a financial condition of an award that the amount payable reach the prescribed minimum (Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.5(1)(b) and (2)(b)), and DWP sets that minimum at one penny (UC Regs 2013 reg 17). SPC Sch I para 1(4) asks whether "the person has an award of universal credit which includes an amount which is the carer element under regulation 29". So a carer whose award comes to nil, however it gets there, has no award and no longer bars the premium or addition. Where an input or a scenario stores universal_credit for the period, or a reform neutralizes it, the test reads the award itself (receives_uc_carer_element): reading a stored award runs no formula, so it cannot cycle. universal_credit joins SUPPLIED_INPUT_VARIABLES for that check.
• The award before the cap. universal_credit subtracts the benefit cap reduction, which reads Child Tax Credit, whose income reads Pension Credit, whose addition reads the carer test, so a carer test that read universal_credit would cycle. The award before the cap and the final award agree for a family whose award includes the carer element: DWP exempts that award from the cap (UC Regs 2013 reg 83(1)(j); is_uc_benefit_cap_exempt_specified_benefit), and uc_deductions leaves at least one penny payable. Invariant 5 checks that agreement.
• is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient counts a carer-element holder as a carer, in the existing attribution order: claimants and partners of the carer's own benefit unit first, then other members, then claimants and partners of other benefit units, eldest unit first. A carer with both Carer's Allowance and a carer element counts once (SSCBA 1992 s.70(7)). Partners caring for the same severely disabled person have one relevant entitlement between them (s.70(7ZA) and (7A)), so where one receives a carer benefit, the other's carer element adds no second carer.
• New council_tax_reduction_carer_premium (BenUnit). council_tax_reduction_premiums reads it at working age in the same way as council_tax_reduction_severe_disability_premium. Outside Scotland's working-age scheme it equals carer_premium. In Scotland it counts each claimant or partner entitled to Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment (limbs (a) and (b), as carer_premium) or with an award of at least one penny that includes the carer element (limb (c), receives_uc_carer_element), in every year from 2022-23. It counts each person once (paras 5(2) and 6(1)), and only one of two partners who care for the same person (para 5(3) and (4)). Councils give the carer-element holder priority under para 5(4), which leaves the amount unchanged.
• council_tax_reduction_working_age_carers (BenUnit). Scotland's working-age award and earnings disregard read this count. In Scotland from 1 April 2022 it counts each applicant or partner entitled to a carer benefit or with an award that includes the carer element (receives_uc_carer_element), where it used to add one carer for any award with the element when no one had a carer benefit.
• Parameter gov.local_authorities.scotland.council_tax_reduction.working_age.carer_premium_counts_uc_carer_element: false from 1 April 2013, true from 1 April 2022.
• Documentation of severe_disability_premium, pension_age_severe_disability_premium, severe_disability_minimum_guarantee_addition, carer_premium and council_tax_reduction_premiums now describes the limb. The documentation of uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit now says when its branch's Pension Credit can differ from the family's own: where the family's severe disability addition reads a renter's carer element, the branch reads that award without housing costs. A household head who applies alone holds no Universal Credit award of their own in the model, so the head branch of council_tax_reduction_premiums keeps its carer test.

Three routes to a nil award, and the executed case

Each of these awards comes to nil, so the carer has no award, and the model now pays the premium or addition. policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py asserts each, after premise checks that raise RuntimeError.

• A non-dependant deduction (test_a_non_dependant_deduction_that_takes_the_award_to_nil_leaves_no_award). A carer aged 40, not blind, cares 35 hours a week for a disabled person aged 50 on the PIP daily living component and earns £27,000. The carer and the disabled person rent a home privately, each liable for half of £12,000, and a blind non-dependant aged 30 earning £20,000 lives with them. DWP deducts £96.55 × 12 = £1,158.60 a year for the non-dependant (UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 paras 13 and 16; blindness brings no exemption, and para 15 does not exempt the carer: the carer claims alone, and the Schedule reserves "joint renters" for joint claimants (para 1(2)), so the disabled co-tenant's PIP brings the carer no exemption under para 15(1)(b)). The carer's housing costs element falls to £6,000 − £1,158.60 = £4,841.40 and the maximum amount to £12,452.28, which the taper of 0.55 × £22,959.60 = £12,627.78 exceeds, so the award comes to nil. DWP does not count the disabled person, a joint tenant, as the carer's non-dependant (para 9(2)(d)), and the council does not count the carer as the disabled person's (HB Regs 2006 reg 3(2)(d)). A blind non-dependant does not bar the disabled person's premium (Sch 3 para 14(4)). The model now pays the disabled person the premium of £86.05 × 52 = £4,474.60.
• Tax-Free Childcare (test_a_family_that_takes_tax_free_childcare_instead_has_no_award). A blind carer aged 35, earning £60,000, has a child aged 3 in £12,000 of childcare, and the disabled person aged 60 on the PIP daily living component lives in another benefit unit of the household. The family's award would come to £21,458.16 − £20,260.57 = £1,197.59, and Tax-Free Childcare to £2,000, so the family takes no award (forgoes_universal_credit_for_tax_free_childcare). The model now pays the disabled person the premium of £4,474.60.
• A small housing costs element with a work allowance (test_small_housing_costs_with_a_work_allowance_leave_no_award). A blind carer aged 35 cares 35 hours a week for a disabled person aged 60 on the PIP daily living component, who lives in another benefit unit of the household and claims no Universal Credit. DWP has determined that the carer has limited capability for work (UC Regs 2013 reg 39(1)(a)), and under reg 41(1A) cannot treat the carer's paid work as a relevant change of circumstances when it decides whether to reassess that determination (reg 41(1)(b)). So the award has a work allowance (reg 22(1)(b)) and the carer element too: DWP puts the LCWRA element in its place only for a claimant who also has limited capability for work-related activity (reg 29(4)). The carer earns £25,000, claims no Carer's Allowance and pays the council £600 a year in rent. After income tax of £2,486.00 and National Insurance of £994.40, the carer keeps earned income of £21,519.60. With a housing costs element of £600, DWP applies the lower work allowance, £427 × 12 = £5,124 (reg 22(2)(b)). DWP's reduction of 0.55 × (£21,519.60 − £5,124) = £9,017.58 exceeds the maximum amount, (£424.90 + £209.34) × 12 + £600 = £8,210.88, so the award comes to nil. The council ignores the blind carer as a resident (HB Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 14(4)(b)), and the model now pays the disabled person the premium of £4,474.60.
• The executed case (uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml, the case "A blind carer whose award comes to nil with a small housing costs element does not bar a pensioner's addition"). The carer of the third route, now the household head, cares for a person aged 75 in another benefit unit who receives Attendance Allowance at the higher rate, £114.60 × 52 = £5,959.20, and £10,000 of State Pension. The carer's award comes to nil as above. DWP ignores the blind carer as a resident (SPC Sch I para 2(2)(b)), and no one has an award including the carer element in respect of caring for the pensioner, so DWP includes the addition, £86.05 × 52 = £4,474.60. The minimum guarantee comes to £238.00 × 52 + £4,474.60 = £16,850.60, and against £10,000 of State Pension, guarantee credit comes to £6,850.60; qualifying income of £192.31 a week falls short of the savings credit threshold of £208.07. Household net income comes to £25,000 + £10,000 + £5,959.20 + £6,850.60 + £200 Winter Fuel Payment + £100 Household Energy Payment − £2,486.00 − £994.40 = £44,629.40. Counting the carer would take the addition away and leave Pension Credit at £2,376.00 and household net income at £40,154.80; the model now gives £6,850.60 and £44,629.40.

The cycle and where the model cuts it

The carer test reads the award, and three routes lead from the award back to the carer test:

• The non-dependant deduction. With the cut removed, a trace runs universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap → uc_maximum_amount → uc_housing_costs_element → uc_non_dep_deductions → uc_individual_non_dep_deduction → uc_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible → uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt → uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit → pension_credit → … → severe_disability_minimum_guarantee_addition → is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient → has_uc_award_with_carer_element.
• Tax-Free Childcare. forgoes_universal_credit_for_tax_free_childcare reads uc_maximum_amount and uc_income_reduction, and so the same housing costs element.
• The benefit cap. universal_credit → uc_benefit_cap_reduction_after_floor → uc_benefit_cap_reduction → benefit_cap_welfare_benefits → child_tax_credit → ctc_entitlement → child_tax_credit_pre_minimum → tax_credits_reduction → tax_credits_applicable_income → pension_credit.

uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit already calculates the non-dependant family's Pension Credit in a branch (simulation.get_branch) with uc_housing_costs_element supplied as nil for every family. In policyengine-core 3.34.9, which uv.lock pins, _check_for_cycle compares only the stack frames whose branch_name matches the calculating simulation's, as 3.34.1 does, and in the branch the housing costs element reads no formula. So the branch keeps a carer test that reads the award before the cap from cycling through the first two routes: in the branch, the test reads the award without housing costs. The branch does not cut the third route, which cycles inside the branch, so the carer test reads the award before the cap rather than universal_credit.

The branch's result decides only the exemption in uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt; nothing else reads uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit. The attribution can change that exemption only through the Pension Credit addition of the non-dependant's own family, which then gets Pension Credit with the addition and none without it (uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit reads pension_credit for the whole family). The addition needs a claimant or partner with a qualifying benefit in SPC Sch I para 1(1), and the model reads the list from gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.severe_disability.relevant_benefits: Attendance Allowance, the DLA care component at the middle or highest rate, the PIP daily living component and armed forces independence payment. uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt exempts everyone who receives one of the four in their own right: the DLA care component under UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 para 16(2)(c), the PIP daily living component under para 16(2)(e), and Attendance Allowance and armed forces independence payment under para 16(2)(d). Para 16(2)(d) uses "attendance allowance" as reg 2 defines it, with armed forces independence payment at head (f) (uc_receives_attendance_allowance). So the branch's result can change the exemption only for a member of that family who receives none of the four and has no other exemption: under head (c) of SPC Sch I para 1(1), a blind partner of a claimant who receives one. Para 16(2) lists no blindness. Where the branch's Pension Credit and the family's own differ, the model then reads that partner's exemption from the counterfactual award.

DWP treats those households differently from the model. The family gets the addition under head (c) only if "no person who has attained the age of 18 is normally residing with the partners, nor are the partners normally residing with such a person, other than a person to whom paragraph 2 applies" (para 1(1)(c)(iii)), and the renter lives with them. DWP ignores, under para 2(2), a person who receives a qualifying benefit (head (a)) or whom a consultant ophthalmologist has certified as severely sight impaired or blind (head (b)). Under UC Sch 4 para 15(1)(a), DWP makes no para 13 deduction at all for a single renter to whom para 15(2) applies. Para 15(2) lists a blind person (a), the DLA care component at the middle or highest rate (b), attendance allowance (c), which reg 2's head (f) extends to armed forces independence payment, the PIP daily living component (d) and the Scottish payments ((bb), (ca) and (da)). So wherever DWP ignores a single renter under para 2(2)(a) or (b), it deducts nothing for any non-dependant, whatever the non-dependant's Pension Credit. A couple who claim jointly both live with the partners, so DWP must ignore both, and para 15(1)(b) then exempts them through either. Two questions stay open. One concerns a renter whom DWP ignores only under heads (c) to (f) of para 2(2) (certified blind until up to 28 weeks earlier, engaged by a charity to care, that carer's partner, or a child or qualifying young person), whom para 15(2) does not list. The other concerns any person under a sub-paragraph of para 2 after (2), which we haven't quoted. The model ignores a resident who is blind, receives a qualifying benefit or counts as a qualifying young person (is_counted_resident_for_severe_disability_addition), so in the model too the addition needs such a renter. uc_non_dep_deductions_renter_exempt applies para 15 where a claimant is blind or receives one of the four benefits, so the model deducts nothing from that claimant's award, whatever the branch returns.

test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs pins the branch's reading, whichever of universal_credit, pension_credit and the carer test the simulation requests first. A blind carer aged 40 earning £20,000 rents from the council at £6,000 a year as household head and cares for a veteran aged 70 in another benefit unit, who receives armed forces independence payment and £13,000 of State Pension. The carer's award comes to (£424.90 + £209.34) × 12 + £6,000 − 0.55 × £17,919.60 = £3,755.10, which includes the carer element, so the veteran gets no addition. The veteran keeps £12,914.00 after £86.00 of income tax, which exceeds the standard minimum guarantee of £238.00 × 52 = £12,376.00, so the veteran gets no Pension Credit. In the branch, without housing costs, the carer's award comes to nil, the veteran gets the addition and Pension Credit of (£238.00 + £86.05) × 52 − £12,914.00 = £3,936.60, and the branch returns true. When the test supplies the branch's result as false, its value in law, the model still exempts the veteran through armed forces independence payment, deducts nothing, and leaves the award at £3,755.10 with the carer element and the veteran's Pension Credit at nil. DWP deducts nothing for this household either, on two grounds: para 15(1)(a) and (2)(a) exempt the carer, a blind single renter, from every deduction, and para 16(2)(d), read with head (f) of reg 2's definition of "attendance allowance", exempts the veteran. The model holds both grounds, so the model's award and the law's agree. When the test supplies the veteran's exemption as false, the carer's own exemption still leaves no deduction, an award of £3,755.10 that includes the carer element, and nil Pension Credit for the veteran.

test_the_branch_decides_a_blind_partners_exemption pins a household where the branch's result decides an exemption. The veteran now has £21,000 of State Pension and a blind partner aged 68 who receives no disability benefit. After income tax of (£21,000 − £12,570) × 0.20 − £1,260 × 0.20 = £1,434.00, with the partner's marriage allowance, the couple keep £19,566.00, which exceeds the couple's standard minimum guarantee of £363.25 × 52 = £18,889.00, so they get no Pension Credit. In the branch, head (c) gives them the addition and Pension Credit of (£363.25 + £86.05) × 52 − £19,566.00 = £3,797.60, so the branch returns true, and the model exempts the partner. When the test supplies the branch's result as false, its value in law, the model no longer exempts the partner. DWP and the model deduct nothing either way, because para 15(1)(a) and (2)(a) exempt the carer, and the carer's award stays at £3,755.10.

Scotland's definition by date

Before the scheme started on 1 April 2022, the Scottish Ministers inserted into SSI 2021/249 reg 4(1) (SSI 2022/52 reg 3(b)):

"award of universal credit" includes a universal credit award with a value of zero,

From 1 April 2025, they substituted (SSI 2025/24 reg 8):

"award of universal credit" means an award of universal credit made under Part 1 of the 2012 Act,

and inserted reg 10A (reg 9):

For the purposes of these Regulations an award of universal credit includes—
(a) an award the amount of which is reduced to zero, as a result of a failure by a claimant which is sanctionable under section 26 (higher-level sanctions) or section 27 (other sanctions) of the 2012 Act, and
(b) an award to which entitlement has ceased in terms of regulation 32A(1)(b) of the Universal Credit, Personal Independence Payment, Jobseeker's Allowance and Employment and Support Allowance (Claims and Payments) Regulations 2013 (reclaims of universal credit after nil award due to earnings), but in relation to which the Secretary of State treats the claimant as making a claim under regulation 32A(2) of those Regulations.

UC Claims and Payments Regs 2013 reg 32A(1):

(1) This regulation applies where—
(a) a claim is made for universal credit, but no award is made because the condition in section 5(1)(b) or 5(2)(b) of the 2012 Act (condition that the claimant's income, or joint claimants' combined income is such that the amount payable would not be less than the prescribed minimum) is not met; or
(b) entitlement to an award of universal credit ceases because that condition is not met.

In its policy note to SSI 2025/24, the Scottish Government records the 2022 intention:

When the Working Age Regulations were brought into force in April 2022, the policy intention was to ensure that in instances where a Universal Credit claimant was receiving £0.00 in Universal Credit due to excess earnings in any Universal Credit assessment period their CTR calculation would be carried out as though the person did have an award of Universal Credit.

and describes reg 10A as:

an expansion of the circumstances in which the provisions applicable to a council tax reduction applicant with an award of Universal Credit will be taken to continue to apply - covering the scenario of a council tax reduction applicant who is a Universal Credit claimant falling within regulation 32A(2) of the 2013 Regulations, as well as, as at present, the scenario of a claimant the amount of whose award is reduced to zero. A reduction to zero will take place because of a sanction, rather than because of excess earnings.

From 2022-23 to 2024-25 the Scottish Ministers' definition takes in an award that exists with a value of zero, and in its note the Scottish Government confines that case to a sanction. Earnings that take the amount payable below one penny fail the s.5 financial condition, so DWP makes no award or entitlement to the award ceases, and no award remains to have a value of zero. The Scottish Ministers added reg 10A(b) in 2025 to bring part of that case in. So the model reads limb (c) from the positive award (receives_uc_carer_element) in every year from 2022-23. A council could still read the 2022 definition to take in an award that earnings end, for its last assessment period and any reclaim months from 2022-23 to 2024-25. The model cannot tell that award from a first claim, on which DWP makes no award (reg 32A(1)(a)). The model has no input for a sanction or a reg 32A reclaim, so it pays no premium for reg 10A's awards, nor for a sanctioned nil award before 2025.

For example, take a Scottish carer aged 40 who cares 35 hours a week, claims neither Carer's Allowance nor Carer Support Payment, and earns £20,000:

• 2024-25. The maximum amount comes to (£393.45 + £198.31) × 12 = £7,101.12. The carer keeps earned income of £17,942.66, and DWP's reduction of 0.55 × £17,942.66 = £9,868.46 takes the award to nil. The carer has no award, and the model pays no carer premium, where an award would bring £45.60 × 52 = £2,371.20.
• 2025-26. The maximum amount comes to (£400.14 + £201.68) × 12 = £7,221.84. The carer keeps earned income of £17,947.87, and DWP's reduction of £9,871.33 takes the award to nil, which leaves no award and no carer premium.

Northern Ireland

has_uc_award_with_carer_element, is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient, severe_disability_premium and severe_disability_minimum_guarantee_addition read no country, so the model applies the same rule in Northern Ireland, with the same parameters for the amounts. Northern Ireland's legislation uses the same words:

• Welfare Reform (Northern Ireland) Order 2015 art. 10 sets the financial conditions in the words of s.5, and UC Regs (NI) 2016 reg 17 sets the minimum at one penny.
• UC Regs (NI) 2016 reg 30 includes the carer element, and Sch 4 para 15(2)(b) exempts a non-dependant "in receipt of state pension credit" from the deduction.
• SR 2016/236 reg 31(7) inserted ", or has an award of universal credit which includes the carer element," into SPC Regs (NI) 2003 Sch 1 para 1(1)(a)(iii), (b) and (c)(iv), and added para 1(4), which refers to UC Regs (NI) 2016 reg 30. legislation.gov.uk's revised text of para 1 predates that amendment.
• HB Regs (NI) 2006 Sch 4 para 14(2)(a)(iii) withholds the premium where a person "has an award of universal credit which includes the carer element under regulation 30 of the Universal Credit Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2016 in respect of caring for him".
• SR 2016/236 regs 26, 28, 35 and 36 insert the same words in Northern Ireland's Income Support, Jobseeker's Allowance, pension-age Housing Benefit and ESA schemes.

uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml adds a Northern Ireland case: a blind son aged 40 with no income, caring for a parent aged 75 on Attendance Allowance at the higher rate, has an award of (£424.90 + £209.34) × 12 = £7,610.88 that includes the carer element, so the Department for Communities includes no addition, which would otherwise come to £86.05 × 52 = £4,474.60. The model reads the Universal Credit amounts from gov.dwp.universal_credit and the addition from gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.severe_disability.addition in every country.

The 2022-23 Scottish amount

The Scottish Ministers left two amounts in force on 1 April 2022. SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 para 5(1) still read £37.70, as made, while the Ministers had replaced £37.70 with £38.85 in para 17's table (SSI 2022/52 reg 25(c)(ii)). They set both to £42.75 from 1 April 2023 (SSI 2023/38 reg 20(h) and (i)). In its Council Tax Reduction in Scotland: 2022-2023 statistics (Table 1), the Scottish Government gives the 2022-23 carer premium as £38.85, the para 17 figure, and the model pays the same amount, reading gov.dwp.carer_premium.single at 30 April 2022.

Which years

• The model reads each year's parameters at 30 April of that year (policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py).
• Severe disability premium and addition. DWP added the limb to HB, HB(SPC), IS, JSA, ESA and SPC through SI 2015/1754, from 4 November 2015. The government added it to England's pension-age CTR for schemes from 1 April 2016 (SI 2015/2041 reg 1(2)). The Scottish Ministers added it to Scotland's from 1 April 2016 (SSI 2016/81), had it in the working-age SSI 2012/303 by 1 April 2021, and included it in SSI 2021/249 from its start on 1 April 2022. The Welsh Ministers added it to Wales's for schemes from 1 April 2017 (WSI 2017/46 reg 1(3)). No parameter gates the limb. The carer element parameter starts on 9 April 2016, and the programmes' verified years start at 2019 (Universal Credit) and 2022 (Housing Benefit, Pension Credit, Income Support). Before them the model applies the limb in Welsh pension-age CTR in model year 2016, a year before WSI 2017/46, and in model year 2015 before SI 2015/1754, wherever a hand-built household has a carer-element award.
• Scottish working-age carer premium. The model applies limb (c) from model year 2022 and needs an award of at least one penny in every year.

Reforms

A reform that makes is_uc_eligible read Pension Credit, or that makes the award before the cap read it, would cycle through the attribution; the invariants below hold for baseline households and stored awards.

Scotland's working-age award

Since #1966, Scotland's and Wales's working-age CTR has its own applicable amount (council_tax_reduction_working_age_applicable_amount), which reads council_tax_reduction_working_age_carers in place of council_tax_reduction_premiums. So Scotland's award takes limb (c) through that count, and this branch applies the reading above there too. The count takes each applicant or partner with is_entitled_to_carer_benefit or receives_uc_carer_element before the same-person cap, and carer_premium_counts_uc_carer_element gates limb (c). Where one partner has a carer benefit and the other has a carer element for a different person, the model now includes two premiums (£5,007.60 in 2026-27), as councils do under para 5(2). Before 1 April 2022 it includes none for a carer element. The earnings disregard reads the same count, so a carer element brings no carer disregard before that date.

Overlap with open branches

This branch merges main at 5800015f2. Its earlier merge, of main at 0520d9646, brought #2010 and, through it, #2007 and #2017. Since #2815, uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt reads uc_receives_attendance_allowance, which counts armed forces independence payment under head (f) of reg 2's definition of "attendance allowance", the term UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 para 16(2)(d) uses. So the model exempts the veteran in test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs whatever the branch returns. #2017 added the para 15 renter exemption, uc_non_dep_deductions_renter_exempt, which exempts the carer in both veteran tests, so those tests now expect no deduction and an award of £3,755.10 in every run.

With explicit SHAs, git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only finds that each of the other 52 open pull requests merges with 99b284783 as it merges with main at 5800015f2: 34 cleanly, #2861 among them, and 18 with conflicts in the same files. So this branch adds no conflict.

Invariants

On generated households under baseline law, policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py checks:

1. No change without a carer element. In a household where no one has has_uc_award_with_carer_element or receives_uc_carer_element, the attribution, the severe disability premium and its CTR and pension-age variants, and the addition equal their values with has_uc_award_with_carer_element supplied as false, and council_tax_reduction_carer_premium equals carer_premium.
2. A carer element never raises the severe disability premium or addition, and never removes anyone from the cared-for set.
3. The Scottish carer premium never lowers the carer premium and differs from carer_premium only for a Scottish working-age family.
4. Bounds. The Scottish premium comes to a whole number of weekly amounts, at most one per claimant or partner, at most one where partners care for the same person. council_tax_reduction_working_age_carers, which Scotland's working-age award reads, gives the same number for every Scottish working-age family unless the household head applies alone.
5. The carer test matches the award. has_uc_award_with_carer_element equals receives_uc_carer_element for every person. universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap comes to more than nil wherever universal_credit does and, for every family with a carer element, only where universal_credit does. The equality also holds where the simulation stores the award (test_a_stored_award_is_the_award_and_reads_no_cycle, both reader orders).
6. Attribution. Everyone the attribution counts as cared for meets the Carer's Allowance severe disability test; no household has more people cared for than carers; the attribution never counts a lone carer as cared for.
7. No cycle. Every reader, with universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap, universal_credit, pension_credit, housing_benefit, income_support, council_tax_reduction and household_net_income, calculates on one simulation in either order, on generated baseline households and where the simulation stores the award.
8. The cut. In the non-dependant family's Pension Credit branch the carer test reads the award without housing costs; test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs pins the veteran's household above in three request orders, where the branch's result changes no exemption and the model's award matches the law's, and test_the_branch_decides_a_blind_partners_exemption pins the blind partner's household, where the branch's result decides the partner's exemption.

Test plan

CI runs the suite at 99b284783. The first item lists the runs at 99b284783. The rest ran at f75f41abc unless they say otherwise, before f8cba9d54 (documentation and a comment in uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit), the merge 835fab99c and the three commits under Between the approvals at 835fab99c and 649d3ad8f.

• At 99b284783, one single-process run each, on policyengine-core 3.34.1:
  • YAML: every file in gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/, 525 cases, among them this branch's council_tax_reduction_carer_premium.yaml and Count enhanced PIP daily living and AFIP for the enhanced premium #2808's enhanced_disability_premium.yaml and applicant_or_partner.yaml; uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml, 12 cases; and gov/dwp/housing_benefit_pre_cutoff_period.yaml, 4 cases. All passed.
  • test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py: 13 passed (241 s). Count enhanced PIP daily living and AFIP for the enhanced premium #2808's test_enhanced_disability_premium_properties.py: 4 passed (51 s). test_council_tax_reduction_applicant_properties.py, which Count enhanced PIP daily living and AFIP for the enhanced premium #2808 changed: 2 passed (214 s). test_housing_benefit_pension_age_cohorts.py: 80 passed (381 s). test_supplied_inputs.py and test_subsample.py, which came with Count only supplied inputs that are still stored in their tier #2308 and test the module both sides changed: 61 passed (149 s), and 58 of 60 passed (521 s). The other two, the cases of test_neutralized_inputs_and_model_values_survive_subsampling, fail the same way on main at 5800015f2 under 3.34.1: Count only supplied inputs that are still stored in their tier #2308 marked them as expected failures ("needs policyengine-core holder resync"), and Require policyengine-core 3.34.9 #2897 removed the mark when it raised the requirement to policyengine-core>=3.34.9.
  • ruff 0.17.2 format --check ., check . and check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk, and git diff --check 649d3ad8f 99b284783: clean.
• YAML tests whose comments work the arithmetic and cite the provision, amounts from DWP Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 / SI 2026/148 and SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 paras 5(1) and 17 as amended:
  • policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/household/demographic/uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml: 12 cases, 12 passed. The blind carer; a partner inside the benefit unit (couple rate to single rate); a son outside it (addition and pension-age premium); a carer on Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit (one carer); a partner's carer element beside the other partner's allowance (one carer); a carer whose income tapers the award to nil (premium kept); a council-renting carer whose housing costs element keeps an award (premium withheld); a son whose income tapers the award to nil (addition kept); a stored award with no claim (premium withheld); no claim, no award; the executed case (addition £4,474.60, Pension Credit £6,850.60, household net income £44,629.40); and the Northern Ireland son (addition withheld).
  • policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_carer_premium.yaml: 12 cases, 12 passed. The issue's Scottish carer aged 40 with care_hours: 35; 2022 and 2021; English and Welsh controls; the nil award in 2026, 2024 and 2025 (no premium in each); allowance and carer element together; a couple caring for the same person; a Scottish pensioner; a dependant who receives Carer Support Payment (no premium).
• Every YAML file under policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/ that names the carer test, the attribution, the severe disability premiums, the addition or the Scottish carer premium, every file in gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/, and every YAML file the branch adds or changes since f9fdc636a (including two that main brought in): 29 files, one policyengine-core test run each, 439 cases passed, none failed. Count AFIP as attendance allowance in UC housing cost contributions #2815's three YAML files (uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt.yaml, uc_receives_attendance_allowance.yaml and integration/uc_afip_housing_contribution.yaml): 24 cases passed, none failed.
• policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py, 13 tests: 13 passed in one -n 4 run (76 s), with no expected failures. At the merge with main (cdf5fbd91), before the changes to the veteran test, the three runs of test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs failed at the deduction once the test supplied the branch's result as false (assert np.float32(0.0) == 1158.6 ± 0.0011586), and the other 9 passed.
  • test_issue_households_read_the_carer_element_award (the reproducer; reads only variables that predate the fix): passed; on main (557087da1) it fails with assert np.float32(4474.6) == 0, the blind carer's premium.
  • The three nil-award routes: 3 passed, with no expected-failure marker and no allowlist entry.
  • test_a_stored_award_is_the_award_and_reads_no_cycle, forward and reverse reader order: 2 passed.
  • test_a_reform_that_abolishes_universal_credit_leaves_no_carer_element_award: passed.
  • test_the_carer_element_limb_moves_only_its_readers_and_only_one_way (Hypothesis, invariants 1 to 6) and test_every_reader_calculates_on_one_simulation_in_any_order (Hypothesis, invariant 7): passed.
  • test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs (invariant 8), three request orders: 3 passed.
  • test_the_branch_decides_a_blind_partners_deduction (invariant 8, since renamed test_the_branch_decides_a_blind_partners_exemption): passed.
• The Python suites on these readers, one -n 4 run each: test_severe_disability_premium_properties.py 6 passed (125 s), test_severe_disability_addition_properties.py 7 passed (230 s), test_legacy_carer_premium_properties.py 4 passed (86 s), test_pension_age_severe_disability_premium_properties.py 3 passed (62 s), test_disable_simulated_benefits_carers.py 18 passed (120 s), test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py 20 passed (189 s), test_council_tax_reduction_severe_disability_family.py 8 passed (17 s), and Count AFIP as attendance allowance in UC housing cost contributions #2815's test_uc_afip_housing_contribution_properties.py 3 passed (21 s).
• policyengine_uk/tests/code_health -n 4: 3,153 passed.
• Mutations, each in a copy of the branch: B3 at f75f41abc; B1, B2 and B4 to B7 at b6b1ce7c, which differs from 31139e82 only in Scotland's carer premium; and S1 and S2 at 31139e82:
  • B1, the carer test reads the old bound (uc_award_upper_bound from f9fdc636a, restored, with the claim and eligibility) in place of the award: the three nil-award route tests fail at has_uc_award_with_carer_element, and the executed YAML case fails (carer test true); the mutant gives Pension Credit £2,376 and household net income £40,154.80.
  • B2, the carer test reads universal_credit in place of the award before the cap: 11 of 12 property tests fail with CycleError through the benefit cap route; the abolition test passes.
  • B3, uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit calculates Pension Credit without the branch: 12 of 13 property tests (all but the abolition test) and 10 of the 12 carer-test YAML cases fail with CycleError ("Circular definition detected on formula has_uc_award_with_carer_element@2026") through the non-dependant deduction route.
  • B4, the attribution ignores the carer element (carer = receives): 6 of the 24 cases in the two new YAML files fail, including the Northern Ireland case.
  • B5, the attribution drops the same-person rule: 1 fails, the partners' case.
  • B6, the carer test ignores a stored award: 1 fails, the stored award.
  • B7, the carer test ignores a neutralized award: the abolition test fails.
  • S1, Scotland counts a nil award from 2022-23 to 2024-25 (the old conditions route): 1 fails, 2024 (£2,371.20 instead of £0).
  • S2, Scotland counts a nil award in every year (uc_carer_element_included_for_claimant in place of the award): 3 fail, 2026 (£2,503.80), 2024 (£2,371.20) and 2025 (£2,412.80).
  • At fff13eda8 (31139e82 keeps the lines these three change): M4, limb (c) from 2013 (the 2021 case fails); M5, council_tax_reduction_premiums drops the carer premium substitution (2 fail); M6, the Scottish premium counts every member (1 fails, the dependant).
• uvx ruff@0.17.2 format --check ., ruff check ., ruff check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk and git diff --check 31139e822..HEAD: clean.
• Not rerun at this head: the 150-household differential against main.
• .github/check_fix_pr.py on this title and body at 99b284783, as pr_fix_evidence.yaml runs it: PASS against main at 5800015f2.
• Changelog fragment changelog.d/2120.fixed.md.

Reproducer

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py::test_issue_households_read_the_carer_element_award

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#520 queued, with an addendum for the carer's actual award, Scotland's limb (c) by date and Northern Ireland (TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#520 (comment))

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 5800015f26 against head 78e1f790ee, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-52,314,332 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,150,722 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,043,426 in total

Counted-once check

The check raised each of 92 components by £1 per unit in 2026-27 and read every head of its totals household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A response that is not finite breaks every rule. The check measures a head that breaks a rule twice more: once holding every other head at its baseline value, and once holding every other head at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. The head fails where either measurement still shows the response. The check cannot hold a head at a value that is not finite. In each unit where another head is not finite after the first £1, it holds that head at its baseline value, and the second measurement judges no household the unit belongs to. There a head fails wherever it first broke a rule, or wherever the check could not confirm whether its response contains the component. 0 failed and the check skipped 0.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 5800015f26	uk 2.177.6 (files 199c7a206577), core 3.34.9, py 3.13.18 aarch64	c1fd70ad8334	93bd0b3e0f8d	2547.32s
head	#2827 merged into main 78e1f790ee	uk 2.177.6 (files b9750eb01178), core 3.34.9, py 3.13.18 aarch64	c1fd70ad8334	93bd0b3e0f8d	2651.68s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.22bn	£335.80bn	£351.26bn	£366.94bn	£385.33bn	£399.97bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£242.22bn	£249.47bn	£258.67bn	£264.86bn	£270.95bn	£277.04bn	£283.21bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.20bn	£2.26bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.13bn	£26.00bn	£26.83bn	£26.51bn	£25.78bn	£24.63bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.72bn	£129.48bn	£132.98bn	£136.65bn	£140.41bn
Pension Credit	£6.21bn	£6.46bn	£6.68bn	£6.82bn	£6.89bn	£7.07bn	£7.22bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.70bn	£81.81bn	£84.29bn	£86.34bn	£87.51bn	£89.06bn	£89.70bn
Housing Benefit	£8.57bn	£8.52bn	£8.85bn	£9.06bn	£9.29bn	£9.57bn	£9.84bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.19bn	£2.32bn	£2.44bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.87bn	£3.02bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.27bn	£5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Scottish Carer Supplement	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.59bn	£3.71bn	£3.78bn	£3.86bn	£3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.37bn	£2.43bn	£2.48bn	£2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Household Energy Payment	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,489k	1,484k	1,476k	1,454k	1,452k	1,457k	1,466k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,343k	6,419k	6,408k	6,369k	6,364k	6,343k	6,295k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,182k	1,181k	1,165k	1,164k	1,166k	1,168k
Council Tax Reduction	3,326k	3,344k	3,351k	3,364k	3,376k	3,388k	3,395k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,060k	1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Scottish Carer Supplement	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	353k	350k	348k	337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,043k	1,027k	1,014k	1,009k	1,011k	1,009k	993k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	796k	797k	798k	798k	792k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,072k	1,073k	1,076k	1,079k	1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Household Energy Payment	0k	21,065k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£884.84bn	£927.26bn	£972.82bn	£1,008.07bn	£1,046.20bn	£1,083.34bn	£1,116.49bn
Government spending	£529.29bn †	£545.32bn †	£550.39bn †	£559.10bn †	£566.74bn †	£575.46bn †	£583.06bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£355.55bn †	£381.94bn †	£422.43bn †	£448.97bn †	£479.47bn †	£507.89bn †	£533.43bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£884.84bn	£927.26bn	£972.82bn	£1,008.07bn	£1,046.20bn	£1,083.34bn	£1,116.49bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.41bn	£551.19bn	£575.98bn	£600.98bn	£626.67bn	£648.39bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.14bn	£512.28bn	£542.80bn	£566.93bn	£591.70bn	£617.14bn	£638.59bn
gov_spending	£529.29bn †	£545.32bn †	£550.39bn †	£559.10bn †	£566.74bn †	£575.46bn †	£583.06bn †
household_benefits	£529.29bn †	£545.32bn †	£550.39bn †	£559.10bn †	£566.74bn †	£575.46bn †	£583.06bn †
gov_balance	£355.55bn †	£381.94bn †	£422.43bn †	£448.97bn †	£479.47bn †	£507.89bn †	£533.43bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.60bn †	£1,687.48bn †	£1,715.10bn †	£1,747.11bn †	£1,778.25bn †	£1,816.55bn †	£1,859.17bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.49bn	£1,499.49bn	£1,530.51bn	£1,564.79bn	£1,597.45bn	£1,635.12bn	£1,676.10bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.4%	16.3%	16.2%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.9%	23.1%	22.7%	22.9%	23.0%	23.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.0%	13.7%	14.6%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.4%	14.0%	13.9%	14.0%	14.0%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.0%	22.0%	22.5%	22.8%	23.0%	23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.2%	32.1%	32.4%	32.8%	33.2%	34.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.0%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	13.2%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	15.9%	16.3%	16.2%	16.3%	16.2%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.8%	22.6%	23.1%	22.7%	22.8%	22.6%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.0%	14.6%	14.6%	14.7%	14.6%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.1%	14.0%	13.8%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.9%	21.2%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.9%	31.0%	31.1%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.7%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.8%	11.7%	11.8%	12.1%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,251k	10,708k	11,337k	11,302k	11,412k	11,452k	11,588k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,677k	3,272k	3,456k	3,407k	3,443k	3,465k	3,511k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,950k	5,860k	6,279k	6,333k	6,390k	6,402k	6,493k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,576k	1,602k	1,562k	1,579k	1,585k	1,584k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,871k	14,567k	15,264k	15,691k	15,911k	16,096k	16,374k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,941k	4,671k	4,815k	4,873k	4,932k	5,015k	5,146k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,436k	8,944k	9,325k	9,475k	9,560k	9,684k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,460k	1,505k	1,493k	1,505k	1,520k	1,545k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,698k	11,036k	11,323k	11,301k	11,352k	11,354k	11,588k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,849k	3,391k	3,456k	3,407k	3,429k	3,416k	3,511k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,131k	5,993k	6,272k	6,333k	6,359k	6,362k	6,493k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,719k	1,652k	1,594k	1,561k	1,565k	1,576k	1,584k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,802k	14,520k	14,761k	14,796k	14,871k	15,007k	15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,916k	4,649k	4,663k	4,653k	4,675k	4,703k	4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,397k	8,415k	8,702k	8,816k	8,873k	8,962k	9,052k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,488k	1,455k	1,395k	1,326k	1,324k	1,342k	1,369k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3076	0.3049	0.3055	0.3054	0.3059	0.3064	0.3080

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,748 †	£17,980 †	£17,927 †	£18,181 †	£18,318 †	£18,537 †	£18,742 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,048 †	£29,038 †	£28,757 †	£28,999 †	£29,261 †	£29,678 †	£30,174 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,220 †	£35,425 †	£36,066 †	£36,547 †	£37,156 †	£37,773 †	£38,102 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,925 †	£40,769 †	£41,716 †	£42,763 †	£43,387 †	£44,167 †	£44,499 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,346 †	£45,603 †	£46,054 †	£47,001 †	£47,756 †	£48,626 †	£50,309 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,936 †	£49,179 †	£50,883 †	£52,036 †	£52,926 †	£53,947 †	£54,723 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,669 †	£56,646 †	£57,489 †	£57,670 †	£58,788 †	£59,702 †	£61,102 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,785 †	£70,807 †	£71,868 †	£73,482 †	£73,889 †	£75,324 †	£77,180 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,889 †	£81,012 †	£80,860 †	£82,645 †	£85,463 †	£86,945 †	£89,508 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£116,861 †	£120,160 †	£124,545 †	£126,419 †	£125,752 †	£128,367 †	£130,693 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.63bn	£6.85bn	£7.03bn	£7.25bn	£7.47bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.22bn	£4.44bn	£4.71bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.81bn	£-3.93bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.05bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.24bn	£-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.18bn	£-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.83bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.81bn	£-22.02bn	£-22.37bn	£-22.77bn	£-22.96bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.71bn	£12.01bn	£12.31bn	£12.62bn	£13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.17bn	£24.97bn	£25.86bn	£26.46bn	£27.07bn	£27.68bn	£28.31bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.41bn	£3.61bn	£3.85bn	£4.14bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.23bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.40bn	£-3.48bn	£-3.53bn	£-3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.76bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.22bn	£-8.44bn	£-8.79bn	£-8.52bn	£-8.86bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.79bn	£7.00bn	£7.20bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.94bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.14bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.22bn	£-4.40bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.79bn	£21.36bn	£21.84bn	£22.07bn	£22.39bn	£22.80bn	£23.01bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	£12.94bn	£13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£23.98bn	£24.77bn	£25.66bn	£26.24bn	£26.85bn	£27.46bn	£28.07bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	£3.86bn	£4.12bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.22bn	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.48bn	£3.54bn	£3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.03bn	£12.46bn	£12.96bn

[juaristi22]

Reviewed f9fdc636a34ce29e0de508b0b5386ea70175e727. REQUEST_CHANGES: C1 is a confirmed material defect. Overall review PARTIAL because two source questions also remain unresolved.

C1 — A positive hypothetical UC bound is not an actual award. At has_uc_award_with_carer_element.py:65, uc_award_upper_bound > 0 can be true when final UC is zero. The new attribution then wrongly removes the cared-for person's severe disability addition. SPC Schedule I paragraph 1 requires an actual UC award including the carer element; the earnings-nil distinction is supported by WRA section 5, UC regulation 17 and Ipswich BC v TD, paragraphs 36–39.

Executed 2026 example in England: a blind 35-year-old household head has an LCW determination, cares 35 hours, earns £25,000 annually, claims no Carer's Allowance and pays £600 annual council rent. A 75-year-old in a separate benefit unit in the same household receives higher Attendance Allowance and £10,000 State Pension. Both actual UC awards calculate to zero, but the carer's bound is £461.10 and the new predicate reads true. Final Pension Credit is £2,376 instead of £6,850.60; household net income is £40,154.80 instead of £44,629.40. The blind-resident exception is supported by SPC paragraph 2(2)(b). A fresh control setting only the new carer-award limb false isolates the £4,474.60 annual loss; this is not a separately executed base branch.

Please distinguish actual-zero award routes without reintroducing the documented UC/PC dependency cycle. Require the three #2795 legal-outcome tests to pass and remove their xfail/allowlist exceptions. Local validation was 99 passed, three strict expected failures, with no unexpected failures. Those expected failures expose this defect; green CI does not establish those outcomes are correct.

Two additional material evidence gaps remain, independently of C1:

• The Scottish 2022–2024 earnings-nil interpretation needs authority reconciling the old zero-value-award definition, regulation 32A and the 2025 expansion. I am not asserting that interpretation is wrong.
• The changed shared severe-disability variables reach Northern Ireland, but the operative NI UC-carer/minimum-award counterparts were not fully established within the bounded source review. GB clauses do not certify NI results.

The actual Axiom #520 dispatch is filed with source excerpts, outputs, companions and approval/ingest blockers. It does not resolve the historical Scottish interpretation or amount to completed parity. Positive-award PC and Scottish final CTR/household-income paths, supplied-input/cache/deletion checks and the other new properties passed.

[MaxGhenis]

Picking this up for the UK hub. Reply here if you're mid-change and I'll stop.

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[MaxGhenis]

PR_TITLE.txt

Count UC carer awards for severe disability and Scottish CTR premiums

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[MaxGhenis]

PR_BODY.md

Fixes #2120
Fixes #2124

## What and why

DWP and councils count Universal Credit carer-element awards, as they count Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment, when deciding the premiums and additions below. The model left the awards out.

- **Severe disability premium and Pension Credit addition (#2120).** DWP and councils withhold the premium or addition when a carer "has an award of universal credit which includes the carer element in respect of caring for" the claimant (HB Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 14(2)(a)(iii) and (b)(iii); HB(SPC) Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 6(2); IS Regs 1987 Sch 2 para 13(2); [SPC Regs 2002 Sch I para 1(1)(a)(iii), (b), (c)(iv) and (4)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I/paragraph/1)). Councils apply the same words in England's, Wales's and Scotland's pension-age council tax reduction schemes. `is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient` attributed only Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment.
- **Scotland's working-age CTR carer premium (#2124).** The Scottish Ministers require councils to include the premium for an applicant or partner who has "an award of universal credit which includes the carer element described in regulation 29" (SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 para 6(1)(c)). `carer_premium` applied limbs (a) and (b) only. No other scheme's carer premium has limb (c): under HB Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 17, HB(SPC) Sch 3 para 9, IS Sch 2 para 14ZA, England SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 para 9, Wales WSI 2013/3029 Sch 2 para 9 and Sch 7 para 14, Scotland SSI 2012/319 Sch 1 para 10 and the pre-2022 SSI 2012/303 Sch 1 para 14, DWP and councils test entitlement to Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment.

### Changes

- **`has_uc_award_with_carer_element` (Person)** reads the carer's actual award. It counts a claimant in respect of whom the award includes the carer element (`uc_carer_element_included_for_claimant`) where the family's award before the benefit cap (`universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap`) comes to more than nil. Parliament makes it a financial condition of an award that the amount payable reach the prescribed minimum ([Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.5(1)(b) and (2)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/5/section/5)), and DWP sets that minimum at one penny ([UC Regs 2013 reg 17](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/17)). SPC Sch I para 1(4) asks whether "the person has an award of universal credit which includes an amount which is the carer element under regulation 29". So a carer whose award comes to nil, however it gets there, has no award and no longer bars the premium or addition. Where an input or a scenario stores `universal_credit` for the period, or a reform neutralizes it, the test reads the award itself (`receives_uc_carer_element`): reading a stored award runs no formula, so it cannot cycle. `universal_credit` joins `SUPPLIED_INPUT_VARIABLES` for that check.
- **Why the award before the cap.** `universal_credit` subtracts the benefit cap reduction, which reads Child Tax Credit, whose income reads Pension Credit, whose addition reads the carer test; the model would cycle. The award before the cap and the final award agree for a family whose award includes the carer element: DWP exempts that award from the cap (UC Regs 2013 reg 83(1)(j); `is_uc_benefit_cap_exempt_specified_benefit`), and `uc_deductions` leaves at least one penny payable. Invariant 5 checks that agreement.
- **`is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient`** counts a carer-element holder as a carer, in the existing attribution order: claimants and partners of the carer's own benefit unit first, then other members, then claimants and partners of other benefit units, eldest unit first. A carer with both Carer's Allowance and a carer element counts once (SSCBA 1992 s.70(7)). Partners caring for the same severely disabled person have one relevant entitlement between them (s.70(7ZA) and (7A)), so where one receives a carer benefit, the other's carer element adds no second carer.
- **New `council_tax_reduction_carer_premium` (BenUnit).** `council_tax_reduction_premiums` reads it at working age in the same way as `council_tax_reduction_severe_disability_premium`. Outside Scotland's working-age scheme it equals `carer_premium`. In Scotland it counts each claimant or partner entitled to Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment (limbs (a) and (b), as `carer_premium`) or with an award of at least one penny that includes the carer element (limb (c), `receives_uc_carer_element`), in every year from 2022-23. It counts each person once (paras 5(2) and 6(1)), and only one of two partners who care for the same person (para 5(3) and (4)). Councils give the carer-element holder priority under para 5(4), which leaves the amount unchanged.
- **Parameter** `gov.local_authorities.scotland.council_tax_reduction.working_age.carer_premium_counts_uc_carer_element`: false from 1 April 2013, true from 1 April 2022.
- Documentation of `severe_disability_premium`, `pension_age_severe_disability_premium`, `severe_disability_minimum_guarantee_addition`, `carer_premium` and `council_tax_reduction_premiums` now describes the limb. A household head who applies alone holds no Universal Credit award of their own in the model, so the head branch of `council_tax_reduction_premiums` keeps its carer test.

### Three routes to a nil award, and the executed case

Each of these awards comes to nil, so the carer has no award, and the model now pays the premium or addition. `policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py` asserts each, after premise checks that raise `RuntimeError`.

- **A non-dependant deduction** (`test_a_non_dependant_deduction_that_takes_the_award_to_nil_leaves_no_award`). A carer aged 40, not blind, cares 35 hours a week for a disabled person aged 50 on the PIP daily living component and earns £27,000. The carer and the disabled person rent a home privately, each liable for half of £12,000, and a blind non-dependant aged 30 earning £20,000 lives with them. DWP deducts £96.55 × 12 = £1,158.60 a year for the non-dependant (UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 paras 13 and 16; blindness brings no exemption, and para 15 does not exempt the carer: she claims alone, and the Schedule's joint renters are joint claimants (para 1(2)), so the disabled co-tenant's PIP gives her no exemption under para 15(1)(b)). Her housing costs element falls to £6,000 − £1,158.60 = £4,841.40 and her maximum amount to £12,452.28, which the taper of 0.55 × £22,959.60 = £12,627.78 exceeds, so the award comes to nil. DWP does not count the disabled person, a joint tenant, as her non-dependant (para 9(2)(d)), and the council does not count her as his (HB Regs 2006 reg 3(2)(d)). A blind non-dependant does not bar his premium (Sch 3 para 14(4)). The model now pays him the premium of £86.05 × 52 = £4,474.60.
- **Tax-Free Childcare** (`test_a_family_that_takes_tax_free_childcare_instead_has_no_award`). A blind carer aged 35, earning £60,000, has a child aged 3 in £12,000 of childcare, and the disabled person aged 60 on the PIP daily living component lives in another benefit unit of the household. The family's award would come to £21,458.16 − £20,260.57 = £1,197.59, and Tax-Free Childcare to £2,000, so the family takes no award (`forgoes_universal_credit_for_tax_free_childcare`). The model now pays the disabled person the premium of £4,474.60.
- **A small housing costs element with a work allowance** (`test_small_housing_costs_with_a_work_allowance_leave_no_award`). A blind carer aged 35 cares 35 hours a week for a disabled person aged 60 on the PIP daily living component, who lives in another benefit unit of the household and claims no Universal Credit. DWP has determined that the carer has limited capability for work (UC Regs 2013 reg 39(1)(a)), and under reg 41(1A) cannot treat the carer's paid work as a relevant change of circumstances when it decides whether to reassess that determination (reg 41(1)(b)). So the award has a work allowance (reg 22(1)(b)) and the carer element too: DWP puts the LCWRA element in its place only for a claimant who also has limited capability for work-related activity (reg 29(4)). The carer earns £25,000, claims no Carer's Allowance and pays the council £600 a year in rent. After income tax of £2,486.00 and National Insurance of £994.40, the carer keeps earned income of £21,519.60. With a housing costs element of £600, DWP applies the lower work allowance, £427 × 12 = £5,124 (reg 22(2)(b)). DWP's reduction of 0.55 × (£21,519.60 − £5,124) = £9,017.58 exceeds the maximum amount, (£424.90 + £209.34) × 12 + £600 = £8,210.88, so the award comes to nil. The council ignores the blind carer as a resident (HB Regs 2006 Sch 3 para 14(4)(b)), and the model now pays the disabled person the premium of £4,474.60.
- **The executed case** (`uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml`, the case "A blind carer whose award comes to nil with a small housing costs element does not bar a pensioner's addition"). The carer of the third route, now the household head, cares for a person aged 75 in another benefit unit who receives Attendance Allowance at the higher rate, £114.60 × 52 = £5,959.20, and £10,000 of State Pension. The carer's award comes to nil as above. DWP ignores the blind carer as a resident ([SPC Sch I para 2(2)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2002/1792/schedule/I/paragraph/2)), and no one has an award including the carer element in respect of caring for the pensioner, so DWP includes the addition, £86.05 × 52 = £4,474.60. The minimum guarantee comes to £238.00 × 52 + £4,474.60 = £16,850.60, and against £10,000 of State Pension, guarantee credit comes to £6,850.60; qualifying income of £192.31 a week falls short of the savings credit threshold of £208.07. Household net income comes to £25,000 + £10,000 + £5,959.20 + £6,850.60 + £200 Winter Fuel Payment + £100 Household Energy Payment − £2,486.00 − £994.40 = £44,629.40. Counting the carer would take the addition away and leave Pension Credit at £2,376.00 and household net income at £40,154.80; the model now gives £6,850.60 and £44,629.40.

### The cycle and where the model cuts it

The carer test reads the award, and four routes lead from the award back to the carer test. A trace with the cut removed shows the first:

- **The non-dependant deduction.** `universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap` → `uc_maximum_amount` → `uc_housing_costs_element` → `uc_non_dep_deductions` → `uc_individual_non_dep_deduction` → `uc_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible` → `uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt` → `uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit` → `pension_credit` → … → `severe_disability_minimum_guarantee_addition` → `is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient` → `has_uc_award_with_carer_element`.
- **Tax-Free Childcare.** `forgoes_universal_credit_for_tax_free_childcare` reads `uc_maximum_amount` and `uc_income_reduction`, and so the same housing costs element.
- **The benefit cap.** `universal_credit` → `uc_benefit_cap_reduction_after_floor` → `uc_benefit_cap_reduction` → `benefit_cap_welfare_benefits` → `child_tax_credit` → `ctc_entitlement` → `child_tax_credit_pre_minimum` → `tax_credits_reduction` → `tax_credits_applicable_income` → `pension_credit`.

`uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit` already calculates the non-dependant family's Pension Credit in a branch (`simulation.get_branch`) with `uc_housing_costs_element` supplied as nil for every family. In policyengine-core 3.34.1, which `uv.lock` pins, `_check_for_cycle` compares only the stack frames whose `branch_name` matches the calculating simulation's, and in the branch the housing costs element reads no formula. So the branch keeps a carer test that reads the award before the cap from cycling through the first two routes: in the branch, the test reads the award without housing costs. The branch does not cut the third route, which cycles inside the branch, so the carer test reads the award before the cap rather than `universal_credit`.

**Whom the cut can affect.** The branch's result decides only the exemption in `uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt`; nothing else reads `uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit`. The attribution can change that exemption only through the Pension Credit addition of the non-dependant's own family, which then gets Pension Credit with the addition and none without it (`uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit` reads `pension_credit` for the whole family). The addition needs a partner or claimant with a qualifying benefit in SPC Sch I para 1(1)(a)(i), and the model counts Attendance Allowance, the DLA care component at the middle or highest rate, the PIP daily living component and armed forces independence payment (`gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.severe_disability.relevant_benefits`). `uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt` already exempts everyone who receives one of the first three, as UC Regs 2013 Sch 4 para 16(2)(c), (d) and (e) do, but not armed forces independence payment, which para 16(2) does not list. So the cut can change the deduction only for a member of that family with no other exemption: someone who receives armed forces independence payment and none of the other benefits, or, under head (c) of para 1(1), a blind partner who receives none. The model can then exempt a non-dependant whom the law does not, or the reverse.

`test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs` pins one such case, whichever of `universal_credit`, `pension_credit` and the carer test the simulation requests first. A blind carer aged 40 earning £20,000 rents from the council at £6,000 a year as household head and cares for a veteran aged 70 in another benefit unit, who receives armed forces independence payment and £13,000 of State Pension. The carer's award comes to (£424.90 + £209.34) × 12 + £6,000 − 0.55 × £17,919.60 = £3,755.10, which includes the carer element, so the veteran gets no addition and, with £250 a week against £238.00, no Pension Credit. In the branch, without housing costs, the carer's award comes to nil, the veteran gets Pension Credit, and the model exempts the veteran and deducts nothing. The law deducts £1,158.60 and leaves an award of £2,596.50, which still includes the carer element. The test asserts both sets of figures, the second with the exemption supplied as the law reads it.

### Scotland's definition by date

SSI 2022/52 reg 3(b) inserted into SSI 2021/249 reg 4(1), before the scheme started on 1 April 2022:

> "award of universal credit" includes a universal credit award with a value of zero,

From 1 April 2025, SSI 2025/24 reg 8 substituted:

> "award of universal credit" means an award of universal credit made under Part 1 of the 2012 Act,

and reg 9 inserted reg 10A:

> For the purposes of these Regulations an award of universal credit includes—
> (a) an award the amount of which is reduced to zero, as a result of a failure by a claimant which is sanctionable under section 26 (higher-level sanctions) or section 27 (other sanctions) of the 2012 Act, and
> (b) an award to which entitlement has ceased in terms of regulation 32A(1)(b) of the Universal Credit, Personal Independence Payment, Jobseeker's Allowance and Employment and Support Allowance (Claims and Payments) Regulations 2013 (reclaims of universal credit after nil award due to earnings), but in relation to which the Secretary of State treats the claimant as making a claim under regulation 32A(2) of those Regulations.

UC Claims and Payments Regs 2013 reg 32A(1):

> (1) This regulation applies where—
> (a) a claim is made for universal credit, but no award is made because the condition in section 5(1)(b) or 5(2)(b) of the 2012 Act (condition that the claimant's income, or joint claimants' combined income is such that the amount payable would not be less than the prescribed minimum) is not met; or
> (b) entitlement to an award of universal credit ceases because that condition is not met.

The Scottish Government's policy note to SSI 2025/24 records the 2022 intention:

> When the Working Age Regulations were brought into force in April 2022, the policy intention was to ensure that in instances where a Universal Credit claimant was receiving £0.00 in Universal Credit due to excess earnings in any Universal Credit assessment period their CTR calculation would be carried out as though the person did have an award of Universal Credit.

and describes reg 10A as:

> an expansion of the circumstances in which the provisions applicable to a council tax reduction applicant with an award of Universal Credit will be taken to continue to apply - covering the scenario of a council tax reduction applicant who is a Universal Credit claimant falling within regulation 32A(2) of the 2013 Regulations, as well as, as at present, the scenario of a claimant the amount of whose award is reduced to zero. A reduction to zero will take place because of a sanction, rather than because of excess earnings.

**The reading.** From 2022-23 to 2024-25 the definition reached an award that exists with a value of zero, which the Scottish Government's own note confines to a sanction. Earnings that take the amount payable below one penny fail the s.5 financial condition, so DWP makes no award or the award ends, and there is no award to have a value; the Scottish Ministers needed reg 10A(b) in 2025 to bring part of that case in. So the model reads limb (c) from the positive award (`receives_uc_carer_element`) in every year from 2022-23. One case stays arguable: for an award that earnings end, its last assessment period and any reclaim months from 2022-23 to 2024-25. The model cannot tell that award from a first claim, on which DWP makes no award (reg 32A(1)(a)). The model has no input for a sanction or a reg 32A reclaim, so it pays no premium for reg 10A's awards, nor for a sanctioned nil award before 2025.

A Scottish carer aged 40, caring 35 hours a week, with no Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment claim and £20,000 of earnings:

- **2024-25.** The maximum amount comes to (£393.45 + £198.31) × 12 = £7,101.12. The carer keeps earned income of £17,942.66, and DWP's reduction of 0.55 × £17,942.66 = £9,868.46 takes the award to nil. The carer has no award, and the model pays no carer premium, where an award would bring £45.60 × 52 = £2,371.20.
- **2025-26.** The maximum amount comes to (£400.14 + £201.68) × 12 = £7,221.84. The carer keeps earned income of £17,947.87, and DWP's reduction of £9,871.33 takes the award to nil, which leaves no award and no carer premium.

### Northern Ireland

The shared variables reach Northern Ireland: `has_uc_award_with_carer_element`, `is_cared_for_by_carer_benefit_recipient`, `severe_disability_premium` and `severe_disability_minimum_guarantee_addition` read no `country`, so the model applies the same rule there, with the same parameters for the amounts. Northern Ireland's legislation uses the same words:

- [Welfare Reform (Northern Ireland) Order 2015 art. 10](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisi/2015/2006/article/10) sets the financial conditions in the words of s.5, and [UC Regs (NI) 2016 reg 17](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2016/216/regulation/17) sets the minimum at one penny.
- [UC Regs (NI) 2016 reg 30](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2016/216/regulation/30) includes the carer element, and [Sch 4 para 15(2)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2016/216/schedule/4/paragraph/15) exempts a non-dependant "in receipt of state pension credit" from the deduction.
- [SR 2016/236 reg 31(7)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2016/236/regulation/31/made) inserted ", or has an award of universal credit which includes the carer element," into [SPC Regs (NI) 2003 Sch 1 para 1](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2003/28/schedule/1/paragraph/1)(1)(a)(iii), (b) and (c)(iv), and added para 1(4), which refers to UC Regs (NI) 2016 reg 30. legislation.gov.uk's revised text of para 1 predates that amendment.
- [HB Regs (NI) 2006 Sch 4 para 14(2)(a)(iii)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2006/405/schedule/4/paragraph/14) withholds the premium where a person "has an award of universal credit which includes the carer element under regulation 30 of the Universal Credit Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2016 in respect of caring for him".
- SR 2016/236 regs 26, 28, 35 and 36 insert the same words in Northern Ireland's Income Support, Jobseeker's Allowance, pension-age Housing Benefit and ESA schemes.

`uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml` adds a Northern Ireland case: a blind son aged 40 with no income, caring for his mother aged 75 on Attendance Allowance at the higher rate, has an award of (£424.90 + £209.34) × 12 = £7,610.88 that includes the carer element, so DWP includes no addition, which would otherwise come to £86.05 × 52 = £4,474.60. The model reads the Universal Credit amounts from `gov.dwp.universal_credit` and the addition from `gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.severe_disability.addition` in every country.

### The 2022-23 Scottish amount

The Scottish Ministers left two amounts in force on 1 April 2022. SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 para 5(1) still read £37.70, as made, while the Ministers had replaced £37.70 with £38.85 in para 17's table (SSI 2022/52 reg 25(c)(ii)). They set both to £42.75 from 1 April 2023 (SSI 2023/38 reg 20(h) and (i)). In its *Council Tax Reduction in Scotland: 2022-2023* statistics (Table 1), the Scottish Government gives the 2022-23 carer premium as £38.85, the para 17 figure, and the model pays the same amount, reading `gov.dwp.carer_premium.single` at 30 April 2022.

### Which years

- The model reads each year's parameters at 30 April of that year (`policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py`).
- **Severe disability premium and addition.** DWP added the limb to HB, HB(SPC), IS, JSA, ESA and SPC through SI 2015/1754, from 4 November 2015. The government added it to England's pension-age CTR for schemes from 1 April 2016 (SI 2015/2041 reg 1(2)). The Scottish Ministers added it to Scotland's from 1 April 2016 (SSI 2016/81), had it in the working-age SSI 2012/303 by 1 April 2021, and included it in SSI 2021/249 from its start on 1 April 2022. The Welsh Ministers added it to Wales's for schemes from 1 April 2017 (WSI 2017/46 reg 1(3)). No parameter gates the limb. The carer element parameter starts on 9 April 2016, and the programmes' verified years start at 2019 (Universal Credit) and 2022 (Housing Benefit, Pension Credit, Income Support). Before them the model applies the limb in Welsh pension-age CTR in model year 2016, a year before WSI 2017/46, and in model year 2015 before SI 2015/1754, wherever a hand-built household has a carer-element award.
- **Scottish working-age carer premium.** The model applies limb (c) from model year 2022 and needs an award of at least one penny in every year.

### Reforms

A reform that makes `is_uc_eligible` read Pension Credit, or that makes the award before the cap read it, would cycle through the attribution; the invariants below hold for baseline households and stored awards.

### Interaction with #1966

#1966 (draft) gives Scotland's and Wales's working-age CTR their own applicable amount (`council_tax_reduction_working_age_applicable_amount`), with its own carer count in place of `council_tax_reduction_premiums`, so it needs no subtraction from the shared premiums. Its `council_tax_reduction_working_age_carers` adds the carer element as one carer only when neither the claimant nor a partner has a carer benefit entitlement, with no date gate, and reads a positive award (`uc_carer_element > 0` with `council_tax_reduction_working_age_has_universal_credit`). When merging #1966, count each claimant or partner with `is_entitled_to_carer_benefit` or `receives_uc_carer_element` before applying the same-person cap, as `council_tax_reduction_carer_premium` does, and gate limb (c) on `carer_premium_counts_uc_carer_element`. Its positive award matches this branch's reading in every year from 2022-23.

### Overlap with open branches

Against this head, `git merge-tree --write-tree` finds:

- `main` (`9b456bda6`): merges cleanly (`git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only HEAD origin/main` exits 0).
- `fix-1971-enhanced-disability` (`6563f73e`): one textual conflict in `council_tax_reduction_premiums.py`, where both branches add a substitution term to the working-age premiums (this branch the carer premium, that one the enhanced disability premium). Keep both substitutions when resolving the conflict.
- `fix-1933-ctr-pensioner-children` (`e8831fb6b`): merges cleanly. In the merged tree, all 12 property tests (`-n 4`, 156 s) and the 24 cases of the two new YAML files pass; a check with historical Child Tax Credit households stays pending.
- `hb-ctr-non-dep-exemptions` (`fde435bd`): merges cleanly. Its HB and CTR non-dependant exemptions read `universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap` and Pension Credit, as the carer test now does. In the merged tree, all 12 tests in `test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py` (`-n 4`, 108 s) and the 24 cases of the two new YAML files pass.
- #1966 (`ctr-working-age-shortfall`, `a013f520a`): merges cleanly.

## Invariants

On generated households under baseline law, `policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py` checks:

1. **No change without a carer element.** In a household where no one has `has_uc_award_with_carer_element` or `receives_uc_carer_element`, the attribution, the severe disability premium and its CTR and pension-age variants, and the addition equal their values with `has_uc_award_with_carer_element` supplied as false, and `council_tax_reduction_carer_premium` equals `carer_premium`, exactly.
2. **A carer element never raises the severe disability premium or addition**, and never removes anyone from the cared-for set.
3. **The Scottish carer premium never lowers the carer premium** and differs from `carer_premium` only for a Scottish working-age family.
4. **Bounds.** The Scottish premium comes to a whole number of weekly amounts, at most one per claimant or partner, at most one where partners care for the same person.
5. **The carer test is the award.** `has_uc_award_with_carer_element` equals `receives_uc_carer_element` for every person. `universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap` comes to more than nil wherever `universal_credit` does, and for every family with a carer element, exactly where `universal_credit` does. The equality also holds where the simulation stores the award (`test_a_stored_award_is_the_award_and_reads_no_cycle`, both reader orders).
6. **Attribution.** Everyone the attribution counts as cared for meets the Carer's Allowance severe disability test; no household has more people cared for than carers; the attribution never counts a lone carer as cared for.
7. **No cycle.** Every reader, with `universal_credit_pre_benefit_cap`, `universal_credit`, `pension_credit`, `housing_benefit`, `income_support`, `council_tax_reduction` and `household_net_income`, calculates on one simulation in either order, on generated baseline households and where the simulation stores the award.
8. **The cut.** In the non-dependant family's Pension Credit branch the carer test reads the award without housing costs; `test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs` pins the armed forces independence payment case above in three request orders.

## Test plan

Runs at `31139e82` unless stated.

- [x] YAML tests with hand-worked arithmetic citing the provision, amounts from DWP Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 / SI 2026/148 and SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 paras 5(1) and 17 as amended:
  - `policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/household/demographic/uc_carer_element_carer_test.yaml`: 12 cases, 12 passed. The blind carer; a partner inside the benefit unit (couple rate to single rate); a son outside it (addition and pension-age premium); a carer on Carer's Allowance and Universal Credit (one carer); a partner's carer element beside the other partner's allowance (one carer); a carer whose income tapers the award to nil (premium kept); a council-renting carer whose housing costs element keeps an award (premium withheld); a son whose income tapers the award to nil (addition kept); a stored award with no claim (premium withheld); no claim, no award; the executed case (addition £4,474.60, Pension Credit £6,850.60, household net income £44,629.40); and the Northern Ireland son (addition withheld).
  - `policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_carer_premium.yaml`: 12 cases, 12 passed. The issue's Scottish carer aged 40 with `care_hours: 35`; 2022 and 2021; English and Welsh controls; the nil award in 2026, 2024 and 2025 (no premium in each); allowance and carer element together; a couple caring for the same person; a Scottish pensioner; a dependant who receives Carer Support Payment (no premium).
- [x] Every YAML file under `policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/` that names the carer test, the attribution, the severe disability premiums, the addition or the Scottish carer premium, every file in `gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/`, and every YAML file the branch adds or changes since `f9fdc636a` (including two that `main` brought in): 29 files, one `policyengine-core test` run each, 439 cases passed, none failed.
- [x] `policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py`, 12 tests: 12 passed in one `-n 4` run (54 s), with no expected failures.
  - `test_issue_households_read_the_carer_element_award` (the reproducer; reads only variables that predate the fix): passed; on `main` (`9b456bda6`) it fails with `assert np.float32(4474.6) == 0`, the blind carer's premium.
  - The three nil-award routes: 3 passed, with no expected-failure marker and no allowlist entry.
  - `test_a_stored_award_is_the_award_and_reads_no_cycle`, forward and reverse reader order: 2 passed.
  - `test_a_reform_that_abolishes_universal_credit_leaves_no_carer_element_award`: passed.
  - `test_the_carer_element_limb_moves_only_its_readers_and_only_one_way` (Hypothesis, invariants 1 to 6) and `test_every_reader_calculates_on_one_simulation_in_any_order` (Hypothesis, invariant 7): passed.
  - `test_the_non_dependant_branch_reads_the_award_without_housing_costs` (invariant 8), three request orders: 3 passed.
- [x] `policyengine_uk/tests/code_health -n 4`: 3,097 passed.
- [x] Mutations, each in a scratch copy of `31139e82` (b6b1ce7c for the carer test, 31139e82 for Scotland):
  - B1, the carer test reads the old bound (`uc_award_upper_bound` from `f9fdc636a`, restored, with the claim and eligibility) in place of the award: the three nil-award route tests fail at `has_uc_award_with_carer_element`, and the executed YAML case fails (carer test true); the mutant gives Pension Credit £2,376 and household net income £40,154.80.
  - B2, the carer test reads `universal_credit` in place of the award before the cap: 11 of 12 property tests fail with `CycleError` through the benefit cap route; the abolition test passes.
  - B3, `uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit` calculates Pension Credit without the branch: 11 of 12 property tests and 10 of the 12 carer-test YAML cases fail with `CycleError` through the non-dependant deduction route.
  - B4, the attribution ignores the carer element (`carer = receives`): 6 of the 24 cases in the two new YAML files fail, including the Northern Ireland case.
  - B5, the attribution drops the same-person rule: 1 fails, the partners' case.
  - B6, the carer test ignores a stored award: 1 fails, the stored award.
  - B7, the carer test ignores a neutralized award: the abolition test fails.
  - S1, Scotland counts a nil award from 2022-23 to 2024-25 (the old conditions route): 1 fails, 2024 (£2,371.20 instead of £0).
  - S2, Scotland counts a nil award in every year (`uc_carer_element_included_for_claimant` in place of the award): 3 fail, 2026 (£2,503.80), 2024 (£2,371.20) and 2025 (£2,412.80).
  - At `fff13eda8`, unchanged here: M4, limb (c) from 2013 (the 2021 case fails); M5, `council_tax_reduction_premiums` drops the carer premium substitution (2 fail); M6, the Scottish premium counts every member (1 fails, the dependant).
- [x] `uvx ruff@0.17.2 format --check .`, `ruff check .`, `ruff check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk` and `git diff --check`: clean.
- [ ] Not rerun at this head: the 150-household differential against `main` and the Python suites on these readers (`test_severe_disability_premium_properties.py`, `test_severe_disability_addition_properties.py`, `test_legacy_carer_premium_properties.py`, `test_pension_age_severe_disability_premium_properties.py`, `test_disable_simulated_benefits_carers.py`, `test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py`, `test_council_tax_reduction_severe_disability_family.py`); CI runs the suites.
- [x] Changelog fragment `changelog.d/2120.fixed.md`.

## Reproducer

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_carer_element_award_properties.py::test_issue_households_read_the_carer_element_award

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#520 queued

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

---

Generated by Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Approved at f8cba9d544a2c493e6388b374b4739d86e43b54f.

Review status: COMPLETE — no remaining findings or material evidence gaps. The completed review remains valid: the code, description and source evidence are unchanged. Validation retains 33 passing checks at this head: 24 YAML tests, eight Python tests and one final-output diagnostic. No tests were rerun for this readiness-only follow-up.

The PR is now ready for review. All 20 latest CI checks pass at this exact commit. Head, description, human feedback, source-issue evidence and applicable branch rules were refreshed before approval.

[MaxGhenis]

#2002's landing put a conflict in uc_non_dep_receives_pension_credit.py, so I was wrong that this one needed no push from me. I merged main in at 835fab99c, and that file now takes #2002's benunit_is_liable_for_household_rent check and its documentation, with the rest of this pull request's text unchanged. I'll ask you to look again when CI passes at this head.

[juaristi22]

Incremental review at 835fab99c9f02efdb6a1caaee407728a48127dec: COMPLETE, no remaining findings or material evidence gaps. Prior C1 and A1 remain resolved.

The main-merge conflict correctly adopts benunit_is_liable_for_household_rent in the Pension Credit non-dependant exemption. Fourteen of the fifteen authored feature paths are unchanged from the approved head; the affected composition was checked against the retained UC rules.

22 current tests passed (15 YAML and 7 Python), plus a final UC/net-income accounting control for the actual-input lodger case. The earlier 33 outcomes remain separate historical evidence. All 51 source originals and their extracts passed integrity checks. A reviewer-only period-mapping error was corrected and retained in the diagnostic history.

Exact-head CI is still pending, so this is a completed review comment. The completed code/source review can be retained when CI is checked again.

[MaxGhenis]

CI passes at 835fab99c, with all 20 checks green, and it still merges cleanly with main at e0502003d, after #2300.

[juaristi22]

Approved at 835fab99c9f02efdb6a1caaee407728a48127dec. The completed independent review has no remaining findings or material evidence gaps; C1 and A1 remain resolved. A targeted exact-head check confirms all 20 latest checks pass, including Aggregate impact, Lint and Test / Result.

This closes the pending-CI approval hold. The reviewed code and description are unchanged, and all 51 retained source pairs were integrity-checked. No code review, tests or model calculations were repeated.

[juaristi22]

Completed incremental review at 649d3ad8fd7aa71b165d4b50032f2bb4fb815d88: no open findings or material evidence gaps. Both earlier findings remain resolved. Approval is deferred until the pending exact-head CI checks complete. All 38 targeted tests passed.

Program review

Base repository: PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
PR number: 2827
Reviewed head SHA: 649d3ad
Merge base SHA: 0520d96
Mode: incremental from 835fab9
Scope: Authored changes since approved835fab: merge-main conflict resolution, veteran-renter tests and Scottishworking-agecarer count; reuse unaffected main/parent behavior and recheck affected final results.
Source manifest: /privateretained review artifacts/pr-2827-sweep20261109-1259-review-sources.json
Review status: COMPLETE

Source Documents

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Critical

C1 — A positive hypothetical UC bound wrongly removes support when the actual award is nil (RESOLVED)

Prior C1 remains RESOLVED. The award gate and severe-disability consumer functions are unchanged from the approved feature. The current selected suite again passes actual-nil UC, non-dependant deduction, Tax-Free Childcare, request-order, stored-input and reader-order regressions; a positive potential carer element is not substituted for an actual award. The veteran tests now retain the blind renter's own paragraph 15 exemption even when a veteran exemption input is false. A1 remains resolved in the sole current policy-role selector; it is not duplicated as a new code finding.

Should Address

A1 — Apply the blind-renter exemption to the stated legal comparison (RESOLVED)

The adopted veteran comparisons now apply both the blind single renter’s UC Schedule4para15(1)(a)/(2)(a) exemption and the veteran’s separate para16/AFIP exemption. Supplying the veteran’s exemption as false still leaves the renter exemption: no housing contribution, rather than a purported lawful£1,158.60 deduction. Renaming the blind partner test to “exemption” preserves the distinction between the Pension Credit branch predicate and the final deduction. No statutory overpayment or general branch-equivalence claim is alleged. PriorC1’s actual-nil-award correction remains resolved; current execution is code-owned.

Suggestions

None.

Evidence Gaps

No material gaps reported.

Notes

• Both prior findings remain resolved. The incremental review covers the authored Scottish working-age count, updated veteran renter tests and merge conflict resolution; unchanged imported main behavior reuses prior evidence.
• Approval deferred while exact-head hosted Python tests and aggregate impact remain pending. A later CI check can complete the approval gate without repeating this completed code and source review.
• 51 cached primary originals and 51 text extracts validated; no new source acquisition or rendering. 73 immutable technical evidence members validated. The detached snapshot was removed normally after both roles completed.
• The repository campaign passed all 38 selected outcomes. One native positive-UC Scottish couple witness reached final CTR and household net income; failed diagnostic setup and an excluded nil-UC control are preserved and are not passes.

Validation Summary

38 current targeted passes (25 YAML and 13 Python), serial campaign exit0; exact snapshot/runtime pins verified. Scottish two-carer native witness: actual UC £1,932.4004; current CTR £1,368 versus previous-helper control £867.2399, household net income £18,224.1992 versus £17,723.4414, with float32 qualification. No population simulation, private data, install or dependency sync.

Timing

setup seconds: 278.45s; parallel review seconds: 521.55s; consolidation cleanup seconds: 333.07s; elapsed seconds: 1133.07s

Review Severity

APPROVE. Open findings: 0 critical, 0 should address, 0 suggestions.

[juaristi22]

Approve at 649d3ad8fd7aa71b165d4b50032f2bb4fb815d88. The pending-CI gate from the completed incremental review has cleared: all 20 latest exact-head contexts passed, including Lint and Test / Result. The completed code/source review has no open findings or material gaps; its 38 targeted passes are retained, with no repeated code review or model execution.

The current head, description, human activity, source dependencies, readiness and applicable required checks are refreshed before this approval.

[juaristi22]

Review status: COMPLETE at 99b2847831b494c6fe648cee253faa888b6411ed. No new findings or material evidence gaps. C1 and A1 remain resolved. Approval is deferred while exact-head CI finishes.

The incremental review checked the merge with main at 5800015f2, particularly the supplied-UC input helper and the combined Scottish CTR premiums. Both the enhanced disability premium from #2808 and this branch's carer premium survive the integration. The source review confirms that the Scottish enhanced disability premium can accompany the carer premium under the stated conditions.

29 targeted tests passed (13 YAML, 16 Python; 54.76s pytest), covering UC awards/cycles and readers, stored inputs and carer premiums, with the locked Core 3.34.9. A two-household standard/enhanced-PIP comparison also passed through final CTR and household net income: actual UC and both carer counts remain positive; the enhanced case adds £1,632.80 to the £5,007.60 carer premiums, with final CTR £1,694.56 versus £1,368.00. This isolates the premium composition; it does not certify general ordinary-disability-premium coverage.

The prior 38 passing tests and native evidence are retained for unchanged behavior and are not counted as new executions. All 51 cached source/extract pairs and the unchanged RuleSpec #520 packet/addendum were validated. No dependencies were installed or private population data used. The initial reviewer-only native component expectation was corrected within the original test window; it is excluded from PR failures and test counts.

Seven Python shards and Aggregate impact are still running in the refreshed CI capture, with no failed latest check. A later run can check CI and approve without repeating the completed code/source review, provided the head, description and relevant activity remain unchanged.

[juaristi22]

Approve at 99b2847831b494c6fe648cee253faa888b6411ed. The pending-CI gate from the completed incremental review has cleared: all 21 latest exact-head CI contexts passed, including Lint and Test / Result.

The completed review has no open findings or material evidence gaps; C1 and A1 remain resolved. Its 29 passing targeted tests and two final-output household checks are retained without repeating code review, tests or model runs. The 51 cached source pairs, 264 technical receipt members and durable custody archive were integrity-checked.

The current head, description, human activity, source dependencies, readiness and applicable required checks are refreshed before this approval.