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Deal the slowest tests to CI shards by duration, not hash - #2637

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vahid-ahmadi merged 4 commits into
mainfrom
ci-balance-test-shards
Oct 26, 2026
Merged

vahid-ahmadi merged 4 commits into
mainfrom
ci-balance-test-shards

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@vahid-ahmadi

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi commented Oct 24, 2026 •

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Summary

Shard 2/5 of "Test / Python" is the slowest shard in most runs. Shards are chosen by a hash of each test's node id (--shard in conftest.py), not by file, so a file's tests are already spread over all five. A hash spreads thousands of short tests evenly but not a few long ones, and by chance the longest test in the suite (test_capital_share_components.py::test_capital_matches_the_original_lists, about 22 minutes on one worker) and several of 4 to 7 minutes hashed to shard 2.

This PR deals the slowest tests out by duration instead:

  • policyengine_uk/tests/shard_durations.toml lists the 567 tests that took at least 20 seconds on CI (about three quarters of the suite's time), with their mean duration over nine runs.
  • conftest.py deals those tests out longest first, each to the least loaded shard (deterministic, ties by node id then shard). Every other test keeps its hash. A test missing from the table, or the table missing, falls back to the hash, so a stale table only costs balance, never coverage.
  • .github/test_durations.py (standard library) regenerates the table from saved shard logs: it times each test as the gap between consecutive results from the same pytest-xdist worker.
  • test_ci_test_shards.py gains invariant 12: the dealing is order-independent and no shard's listed load exceeds another's by more than the longest test, shards still partition any collection that includes listed tests, shard_of follows the table, and every table entry names a test function that exists.

The 60-minute limit itself is already 75 on main (#2626). Runs cancelled at 60 minutes after that, such as run 40050823323, came from branches cut before it. This PR adds headroom under that limit; it does not change it.

Evidence (before)

All 95 Code changes runs since 21 October with all five shards green (merge queue and pull requests), minutes in "Run the tests":

Shard Mean Max
1/5 48.5 55.0
2/5 57.4 69.5
3/5 54.7 61.2
4/5 55.1 63.4
5/5 52.8 58.7

Shard 2/5 was the slowest in 54 of the 95. Summing the per-test durations from eight of those runs by shard reproduces this (48, 59, 55, 56, 53 minutes at four workers). With this table the same durations come out at about 54 minutes each.

Locally, --collect-only --shard K/5 for K = 1 to 5 partitions all 9,140 collected tests (1,782 / 1,873 / 1,828 / 1,829 / 1,828).

After

Job durations from this PR's own runs, minutes:

Run 1/5 2/5 3/5 4/5 5/5
First commit, 60-second table (source) 54 47 55 60 55
First commit (release wheel) 58 48 49 51 53
Head, 20-second table (source) 58 51 57 55 56
Head (release wheel) 56 52 53 56 50

Shard 2/5 is no longer the slowest. With the 60-second table shard 4/5 carried 235 worker-minutes against 180 to 209, because the hashed remainder (41% of the time) was uneven; the 20-second table fixes that. The slowest shard in each head run is 56 to 58 minutes against a 59-minute mean of the slowest shard over the 95 runs before. The remaining spread between shards is run-to-run noise in individual tests (one took 11 minutes in one run and 7.7 on average), which no static table removes. One run each is not much evidence: the gain is mainly that no shard is now systematically slow.

Notes

  • Model Marriage Allowance as the statutory s.55B transfer and Step 6 reduction #1963 changes the shard count to eight for its own reasons. The table works for any count, so whichever lands second needs no change here.
  • Follow-up, not changed here: test_capital_matches_the_original_lists alone takes about 22 minutes (max_examples=25, up to 30 households and a full Simulation per example). It sets a floor for whichever shard holds it.

Tests

  • pytest policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_ci_test_shards.py: 51 passed.
  • ruff check and ruff format --check on the changed Python.

Reproducer: n/a: CI test sharding only; model source and dependencies are unchanged
axiom: n/a: CI change, no policy content

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Over 95 runs on 24 October, shard 2/5 averaged 57 minutes (up to 70)
against 49 for shard 1/5. Shards are chosen by a hash of each node id,
which spreads short tests evenly but not long ones: a 22-minute property
test and several of 4 to 7 minutes hashed to shard 2.

shard_durations.toml lists the 295 tests that took at least a minute,
measured from the logs of eight merge queue runs by
.github/test_durations.py. conftest.py deals them out longest first, each
to the least loaded shard; every other test keeps its hash. On the
measured durations the shards come out at 53 to 55 minutes instead of 48
to 59.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 24, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 49a759063a against head 64d3c8040b, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 49a759063a uk 2.162.2 (files 4c101c84b385), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 f4e8a9cd55ad 4f86ac4248d9 1888.21s
head #2637 merged into main 64d3c8040b uk 2.162.2 (files 4c101c84b385), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 f4e8a9cd55ad 4f86ac4248d9 1871.35s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.91bn £8.21bn £8.43bn £8.63bn £8.85bn £9.10bn £9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
Government spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.95bn † £398.19bn † £428.68bn † £456.13bn † £486.76bn † £514.23bn † £546.36bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
household_tax £496.91bn £527.60bn £554.51bn £577.74bn £603.32bn £627.65bn £654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
household_benefits £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
gov_balance £369.95bn † £398.19bn † £428.68bn † £456.13bn † £486.76bn † £514.23bn † £546.36bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.34bn † £1,688.53bn † £1,719.29bn † £1,750.26bn † £1,781.23bn † £1,820.53bn † £1,866.75bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.21bn £1,504.32bn £1,537.33bn £1,569.01bn £1,602.22bn £1,639.95bn £1,686.40bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.2% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 30.9% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,051k 10,489k 10,774k 10,897k 11,005k 11,092k 11,140k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,580k 3,185k 3,232k 3,242k 3,284k 3,321k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,846k 5,754k 6,039k 6,139k 6,191k 6,232k 6,270k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,858k 14,424k 14,825k 15,016k 15,271k 15,438k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,944k 4,610k 4,671k 4,688k 4,757k 4,821k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,410k 8,361k 8,749k 8,916k 9,053k 9,141k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,405k 1,412k 1,461k 1,475k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,898k 11,405k 11,470k 11,490k 11,425k 11,528k 11,710k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,918k 3,524k 3,519k 3,491k 3,451k 3,492k 3,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,203k 6,137k 6,339k 6,402k 6,387k 6,441k 6,540k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,587k 1,595k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,969k 14,592k 14,740k 14,824k 14,961k 15,048k 15,363k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,977k 4,676k 4,652k 4,634k 4,691k 4,712k 4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,455k 8,452k 8,697k 8,846k 8,924k 8,983k 9,107k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,464k 1,391k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,462k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3086 0.3059 0.3066 0.3072 0.3077 0.3083 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,773 † £17,876 † £17,831 † £17,889 † £18,127 † £18,315 † £18,445 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,956 † £28,855 † £28,514 † £28,878 † £29,157 † £29,624 † £30,132 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,379 † £35,481 † £36,103 † £36,490 † £36,752 † £37,303 † £38,128 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,782 † £40,746 † £41,895 † £42,415 † £43,112 † £43,928 † £44,188 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,785 † £44,532 † £45,603 † £46,280 † £47,374 † £48,286 † £49,557 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,210 † £49,520 † £50,751 † £51,516 † £52,206 † £53,079 † £54,258 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,210 † £57,193 † £57,748 † £58,266 † £58,991 † £60,089 † £61,812 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,153 † £70,584 † £71,803 † £73,070 † £74,090 † £75,614 † £77,419 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,488 † £81,416 † £82,836 † £84,144 † £85,527 † £87,051 † £89,927 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,580 † £120,294 † £121,931 † £124,160 † £126,041 † £128,335 † £131,104 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.24bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.57bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

The first run with the 60-second table (run 40095846881) took 53, 46,
55, 60 and 55 minutes: shard 2/5 dropped from the slowest to the
fastest, but shard 4/5 carried 235 worker-minutes against 180 to 209
for the others. The 295 listed tests were only 59% of the suite's time,
and the hash left the remainder uneven. The 567 tests of 20 seconds or
more are 75% of it; on the measured durations of nine runs the shards
then come out at 54 minutes each, give or take half a minute.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi marked this pull request as ready for review October 24, 2026 21:17
vahid-ahmadi and others added 2 commits October 25, 2026 23:45
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
#2040 (9d3a9be) replaced test_frs_shaped_units_keep_the_under_20_presumption,
so after merging main the existence check in test_ci_test_shards.py failed on
its table line. The test it became is placed by the hash until the table is
regenerated. The table's header said a stale entry was harmless; it now says
the check fails on one and what a renaming PR should do.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi

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Merged main (49a7590) into this branch and pushed, head now aa09c20.

After the merge, test_the_checked_in_shard_durations_name_tests_that_exist failed: #2082 (merged at aa478f5 on 24 Oct, after the table was measured) removed test_frs_shaped_units_keep_the_under_20_presumption, which had an 83-second line in shard_durations.toml. So this PR would have failed in the merge queue as it stood. I deleted that line (566 entries now); the test that replaced it is placed by the hash until the table is regenerated. The commit message wrongly cites #2040 as the source; it was #2082.

The table header said a stale entry was harmless, which the existence check contradicts. It now says the check fails on a stale entry, and that a PR renaming or removing a listed test should edit its line here. That is a small cost this table puts on other PRs; the alternative is to drop the existence check and accept silent drift.

Ran locally on the merged tree: pytest policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_ci_test_shards.py (51 passed) and --collect-only --shard 1/5 (collects). No full suite run; CI is rerunning.

Still needs a reviewer: none is assigned or requested.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Program review

Base repository: PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
PR number: 2637
Reviewed head SHA: aa09c20
Merge base SHA: 49a7590
Mode: full
Scope: All six changed files: duration-based CI sharding, advisory table, offline generator, tests and changelog; affected build, workflow and coverage-checker contracts.
Source manifest: /private/tmp/policyengine-command-runs/d69b42c555e3/pr2637-external-review-20261026-review-sources.json
Review status: COMPLETE

Source Documents

No source documents registered; see scope and validation.

Critical

None.

Should Address

None.

Suggestions

S1 — source-1 — Match the PR prose count to the checked-in table (OPEN)

Location: captured PR body Summary, versus policyengine_uk/tests/shard_durations.toml's [seconds] mapping. The summary says567 listed tests; independently parsing the exact head gives566 unique entries. All566 have positive finite weights and refer to existing files. This is a minor descriptive count mismatch; it does not drop a collected test or undermine assignment. Update the prose count when editing the description. Evidence: pr2637-external-review-20261026-policy-static-proof.json.

Evidence Gaps

No material gaps reported.

Notes

  • No blocking defects or material evidence gaps found. S1 is an optional correction to the PR description: the table contains 566 entries, while the description says 567. Routing and coverage are unaffected.
  • Duration weights affect routing only. Stable hash fallback, test collection and the final exactly-once coverage audit remain intact. Source and wheel packaging were checked.
  • The generator estimates durations from gaps in offline worker logs. Historical performance figures remain author-reported; this review does not independently measure CI speed or guarantee total wall time.
  • The captured default branch is 16 commits ahead. Being behind main is informational. Both reviewers examined the exact aa09c20 snapshot and full merge-base diff.
  • The disposable snapshot was removed normally after both reviewers finished. Four independent identity/status checks passed. No new external policy sources were needed.
  • Timings cover capture through consolidation and normal cleanup. Role durations overlap and are not additive.

Validation Summary

Local tests and collection were NOT RUN; no country/Core imports, environment changes, private CI logs or artifacts were used. Matching-head CI for aa09c20 records 34 successful checks and one skipped Publish step. Source and release YAML tests, all ten Python shards, Test/Result and Lint succeeded. Publish is skipped because PR builds explicitly set publish=false. Static TOML/AST inspection checked all 566 table entries and 160 referenced files, with no invalid references. These source checks and matching-head CI support the review; no additional local execution gate is required.

Timing

elapsed seconds: 1130.92s; code role seconds: 275.21s; policy role seconds: 350.01s

Review Severity

APPROVE. Open findings: 0 critical, 0 should address, 1 suggestions.

@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 26, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit e5b34ba Oct 26, 2026
35 checks passed
@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi deleted the ci-balance-test-shards branch October 26, 2026 19:09
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2 participants