Stop early years hours once a child starts school, and start working parent hours with the next term by juaristi22 · Pull Request #2570 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

juaristi22 · 2026-10-22T11:09:39Z

What and why

Funded early years hours tested the child's age only. So a 4-year-old in reception kept both the universal and the working parent hours, and in Scotland a child in primary 1 kept funded early learning and childcare. Working parent hours were decided once, on the age in the middle of the year. Survey ages are whole years, so no child aged 0 then ever qualified, though children reach nine months all through the year.

Three ordered commits. The first two are the original change. The third answers the review: the start of school now comes from the date of birth, not from current_education.

1. No funded early years hours once a child has started school (`e64fc90`, then `a464aac`)

universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible and extended_childcare_entitlement_qualifying_child stop from the term a child starts school. In England the council meets both duties through a state-funded or council-funded reception place, and the child is "not entitled to any additional free hours outside their school reception class place" (statutory guidance from April 2026, footnotes 7 and 17, paras A4.8 and C.6). Both variables need it, since Preserve universal and targeted hours alongside extended childcare #2177 splits a child's hours between them.
scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible stops too: an eligible pre-school child "has not commenced attendance at a primary school (other than at a nursery class in such a school)" (Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s.47(2)(b)).
New Person variable early_years_term_share_before_school: the share of the year's terms (from 1 April, 1 September and 1 January) that begin before the child starts school, from the date of birth.
- England and Wales. Reception starts in the September following the fourth birthday. The guidance's legal annex says the School Admissions Code requires admission "in the September following their fourth birthday" (para 2.17 of the Code; C.5).
- Scotland. Primary 1 starts in August for children who turn five by the council's latest date, the end of February (Education (Scotland) Act 1980 s.32).
- Northern Ireland. Primary 1 starts in September for children who are four by 1 July (Education and Libraries (Northern Ireland) Order 1986 art 46(2)). No Northern Irish rule reads it yet.
Universal hours and the working parent total are scaled by the share. A child stays eligible while any term comes before school. So most 4-year-olds keep the summer term only: in England, those aged 4 on 6 October whose fourth birthday was before 1 September.
A household simulation that gives only a whole age of 4 takes the child to be born on 6 April. It now gets a third of the year's universal and working parent hours.
New Person input early_years_school_start_deferred keeps the whole year. Set it for a deferred start (England: until later in the school year; Scotland: a deferred primary 1 year, funded since August 2023, SSI 2021/67) or for a council-funded independent reception place.
The first commit read current_education (early_years_child_in_school). That is enrolment at the survey interview, so it caught about half the September starters and applied to the whole year. The third commit replaces it, and current_education is no longer read here.

2. Working parent hours start with the term after the minimum age (`369f550`)

SI 2022/1134 reg 27(1)(a): a child is eligible from "whichever of 1st January, 1st April or 1st September is the first date after the day on which a declaration in respect of the child has effect". For a declaration made in advance, that day is the day the child meets reg 13, nine months old since September 2024 (regs 20(a) and 25(1)). Before December 2022, SI 2016/1257 reg 35(3) set the same dates from the third birthday.
New Person variable extended_childcare_entitlement_term_share: the share of the year's three terms that begin after the child attains the minimum age. Each term counts as a third of the year, and the term dates are shared with the school rule (policyengine_uk.utils.dates.term_starts). The variable reads date_of_birth, or age with months_since_last_birthday, which spreads each single year of age over the year in data.
extended_childcare_entitlement_qualifying_child needs a share above 0. extended_childcare_entitlement_total_per_child is scaled by it. It uses the hours for the minimum age when the child reaches that age later in the year: age 0 otherwise gets no hours.
Universal and targeted hours meet the working parent hours term by term:
- Hours allocated from participation (standalone take-up false) come only in the qualifying terms.
- A standalone claim's hours run all year, and only the qualifying terms' share of them counts against the working parent total.
- The minimum age is below the school starting age, so the two shares never both fall short of the whole year.
- With both shares at 1, all formulas reduce to the old ones.
Effect:
- A child aged 0 in the middle of the year who was born from October to March gets one or two terms' hours, where none did before.
- A 1-year-old who reached nine months after 1 April loses the summer term.
- From 2025, household simulations that give only whole ages are unchanged for the term rule. In 2024 and earlier, the minimum age was two or three, and a child born on 6 April who reaches it during the year now qualifies from September.
Funding rates still use the age in the middle of the year.

Not in this PR

policyengine-uk-data. The childcare take-up refit is Refit childcare take-up for funded hours that stop at school entry and start by term (policyengine-uk#2570) policyengine-uk-data#633.
- DfE's comparators are January counts that leave reception children out. The refit should count children funded in the spring term, since summer-term-only 4-year-olds now still count as receiving.
- The universal comparator change in Count working parent children in the universal childcare caseload target policyengine-uk-data#545 belongs in the same refit.
- Give children recorded as aged 0 an age in months policyengine-uk-data#547 is no longer needed for the nine-month rule.
Parameters by term. The minimum age and the hours schedule are still read once per year, at 30 April. Reading them at each term's start would give 2024-25 its nine-month autumn and spring terms, and 2025-26 its 30-hour autumn and spring terms for under-3s. The under-2 hours in hours.yaml start in January 2025, not September 2024, and would need re-dating too. Both affect past years only.
Wales. Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535 can read early_years_term_share_before_school.
Make current_education and maintenance loan evidence independent of calculation order #2403 rewrites how current_education carries into later years. This PR no longer reads it, so the two PRs can merge in either order.
Other start dates. Universal hours (third birthday) and the 2-year-old offer still use the whole-year age; their own term-start rules are not modelled.

Test plan

YAML tests whose expected values come from the regulations' dates, the admissions rule and DfE's guidance, with amounts at the model's DfE funding rates:
- new household/demographic/early_years_term_share_before_school.yaml: each nation's cohort boundary, the whole-age default, and a deferred start beside a sibling;
- new extended_childcare_entitlement_term_share.yaml: each term boundary, whole and fractional ages, and the 2024 and 2022 minimum ages;
- added cases in universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible.yaml, universal_childcare_entitlement.yaml and extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible.yaml: a September starter funded for the summer term (the reproducer), a September birthday keeping the year, a deferred start, a child at school all year, and a sibling;
- added cases in extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child.yaml: partial-year amounts, and universal hours term by term in 2023;
- added cases in funded_early_learning_childcare.yaml: an August primary 1 starter and a child at school all year.
- Two older tests of a 4-year-old's hours cap now give the child a September birthday, so they keep testing the cap. Two older "aged 4 is eligible" amounts are now the summer term, a third.
New test_early_years_school_start.py: every date of birth for children aged 3 to 5 in each nation, against a calendar-date reference from each nation's rule, and a deferred start.
New test_extended_childcare_term_share.py: every date of birth for children aged 0 to 4, against a calendar-date reference written from reg 27, for 2022 to 2026.
test_childcare_entitlement_floor_properties.py:
- children are drawn with or without a deferred start (invariant 11: no hours after the start of school);
- the reference applies the school rule and the term rule (invariant 12), with invariants 3 and 4 stated term by term;
- examples for September starters and a deferred one, ages 0.75, 0 and 1 in 2026, and 2-year-olds in 2024.
Run locally, all passing at a464aac:
- the full YAML suite (4,220);
- test_childcare_entitlement_floor_properties.py (20);
- test_early_years_school_start.py (5);
- test_extended_childcare_term_share.py and the Python tests that set current_education for children or read dates of birth or funding rates (46): test_claimant_not_own_child_properties.py, test_means_test_income_properties.py, test_uc_claimant_elements_properties.py, test_household_head_agreement_properties.py, test_date_of_birth.py and test_childcare_funding_rates.py.
The reproducers fail on main.
ruff format and ruff check on the changed files. The full Python suite is left to CI.
Changelog fragments: changelog.d/2567.fixed.md and changelog.d/2567-term-starts.fixed.md.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/universal_childcare_entitlement/universal_childcare_entitlement.yaml::A 4-year-old starting reception in September gets free hours for the summer term only, policyengine_uk/tests/test_early_years_school_start.py::test_the_share_before_school_follows_each_nations_school_start, policyengine_uk/tests/test_extended_childcare_term_share.py::test_term_share_follows_the_date_of_birth

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#364 queued (extension: SI 2022/1134 regs 20(a), 25(1) and 27(1)(a), with SI 2016/1257 reg 35(3)); TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#439 queued (extension: a reception place meets both duties); TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#484 queued (Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s.47(2))

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A council meets the universal and working parent duties for a child in a state-funded or council-funded reception class through the school place: DfE's statutory guidance (April 2026, footnotes 7 and 17, paras A4.8 and C.6) gives such a child no free hours outside it. In Scotland a child in primary 1 is no longer an eligible pre-school child (Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s.47(2)(b)). early_years_child_in_school is true when current_education is primary or a later stage, and can be set directly. Universal eligibility, the working parent qualifying child and Scottish funded early learning and childcare leave such a child out. Without a current_education input a 4-year-old is not in school, so situations without one are unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

SI 2022/1134 reg 27(1)(a): a child is eligible from the first 1 January, 1 April or 1 September after the day its declaration has effect, which for a declaration made in advance is the day it attains the reg 13 minimum age (regs 20(a) and 25(1)(b)). SI 2016/1257 reg 35(3) set the same dates from the third birthday before December 2022. The model tested the age once, in the middle of the year, so no child aged 0 then qualified and every child aged 1 qualified all year. extended_childcare_entitlement_term_share is the share of the year's terms, beginning on 1 April, 1 September and 1 January, that begin after the child attains the minimum age, read from the date of birth. The qualifying child needs a share above 0, the working parent total is scaled by it, and universal and targeted hours meet it term by term. With a share of 1 every formula is unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

vahid-ahmadi

@juaristi22 thanks, this is my review at 369f5503763ed908a3981596c1d4c83d48a14cf6.

Both parts are right in law, and the term rule is a clear improvement. I have two shoulds and two nits. CI at this sha: YAML, lint, docs, smoke imports and fix evidence pass; the five Python shards and Aggregate impact were still pending when I posted.

What I checked

Sources, read today. SI 2022/1134 regs 13(2)(a), 20(a), 25(1)(b) and 27(1)(a); SI 2016/1257 reg 35(3) as made; Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s.47(2)(b); DfE early education and childcare statutory guidance from 1 April 2026, footnotes 7 and 17, A1.10 and A1.17, A4.8, C.5 and C.6. Each says what the PR says. Footnotes 7 and 17 give no free hours outside a state-funded or council-funded reception place. C.6 tells parents they cannot take the free hours once the child takes up that place.
Term rule. The strict < in extended_childcare_entitlement_term_share.py:47-50 matches reg 27(1)(a) ("the first date after the day") and DfE's A1.10 table. A child who turns nine months on 1 April starts on 1 September. hours_age = max_(age, minimum age) gives 30 hours at age 0 from September 2025, and the funding rate stays the under-2 rate. In extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child.py, the where(claims_universal, term_share * universal, universal) branch matches the two allocation branches in the universal and targeted formulas. With a share of 1, everything reduces to the old formulas.
Not modelled, and fine for an annual model. The model takes the code as valid at each term start (the 31 March, 31 August and 31 December deadlines). The three-monthly reconfirmation and the grace period are also left out.
Wales and Northern Ireland are unaffected. No Welsh or NI variable reads either new variable. scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible has no consumer yet, so the Scottish change does not move any aggregate.
Tests, in a fresh venv at the head. The DfE, Scottish and new demographic YAML tests all pass (291). So do test_extended_childcare_term_share.py and test_childcare_entitlement_floor_properties.py (25), and the six date, education and funding-rate Python files you list (41). The reproducer YAML fails on main (2f1606e99) and passes here.
PR body. Reproducer: is there. The axiom: line is a maintainer line, not axiom: needed. Both changelog fragments are there.

Effect on costs (Microcosm a858c100, England, £bn)

2027-28	main	this PR
Funded hours (universal + targeted + extended)	11.44	10.24
of which reception rule		-1.50
of which term rule		+0.30
Static cost of removing the £100,000 limit (funded hours only)	0.930	0.917

The term rule brings under-2s closer to DfE. On this release the age 0 and 1 extended hours are about £2.9bn in 2026-27, against DfE's illustrative £3.0bn for under-2s. On main they were about £2.6bn.
On the £100,000 reform, the reception rule moves the cost by -0.085bn and the term rule by +0.07bn. The reception figure matches a separate estimate of -0.083bn on an older engine.

Findings

should: the reception flag is a survey snapshot applied to the whole year, and it covers about half the children who start reception. early_years_child_in_school.py:41-43, used at universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible.py:47-48, extended_childcare_entitlement_qualifying_child.py:59-66 and scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible.py:43-46.
- The model's age is the age on 6 October. Under the School Admissions Code (guidance C.5), a child aged 4 then and born before 1 September four years earlier starts reception on 1 September of the same year. By months_since_last_birthday, that is 89% of 4-year-olds on this release.
- The data flag only 52% of them (weighted). current_education is enrolment at the survey interview, so the flag mostly records whether the interview came after September.
- The legal pattern for those children is the summer term funded and the autumn and spring terms not. The PR does something different: a flagged child loses all three terms, including the summer term it is entitled to, and an unflagged one keeps the autumn and spring terms it is not.
- In aggregate it nearly washes out. In 2027-28 the PR keeps £1.17bn for 4-year-olds, and a date rule would keep £1.11bn. Per household it does not, and that matters for distributional results, including the £100,000 reform.
- Suggested fix, since the PR already reads birth_day: in England, a child born before 1 September of the year it turns 4 is in reception from the 1 September term. It gets funded hours in the summer term only (a school-start share alongside extended_childcare_entitlement_term_share). early_years_child_in_school stays as an override for household inputs and fee-paying independent schools. Scotland's P1 starts in August, so the same approach fits there with a 1 March to end-of-February cohort.
- If you would rather do this separately, a follow-up issue plus a sentence in the docs and changelog saying the flag is point-in-time would be enough for this PR.
should: link the policyengine-uk-data issue for the take-up refit before merge. The PR body says the refit is needed, but the issue isn't filed yet. The reception share and the fitted take-up were calibrated together. Until the refit, this PR lowers baseline funded hours by about £1.2bn in 2027-28 on the current release. Finding 1 decides which children the refit should exclude, so the uk-data issue should cite it.
nit: the minimum age is read once per year, though the rule is now term by term. extended_childcare_entitlement_term_share.py:42 reads parameters(period), so in 2024-25 every term uses two years. Under SI 2023/1330 reg 2(5)(b), nine months applied from 1 September 2024, so the autumn and spring terms should use it. Reading the parameter at each term's start date would fix 2024-25 at no extra cost. The same applies to the hours schedule in 2025-26 (15 hours for under-2s until 1 September 2025, then 30). Both are older than this PR and only affect past years, so this is optional.
nit: axiom extension comments. The axiom: line says the reg 27 and reception-place comments and the new s.47(2) parity issue are drafted but not posted. Worth posting them before merge so the line points at something that exists.

Overlaps and merge order

No file overlaps with other open PRs apart from the ones you name.
#2403 rewrites current_education. This PR only reads it, so either order works.
#2535 (Wales) can read early_years_child_in_school. If finding 1 changes the flag, #2535 should follow the new definition.
#2557 changes childcare_funding_rate uprating but says the projected path stays the same. If it does move 2026+ rates, whichever PR merges second re-runs the YAML amounts.
#2552 touches only the UC criteria for targeted hours.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

github-actions · 2026-10-22T12:02:25Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 849975f27b against head 541c23b183, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 62 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Universal childcare entitlement	2031-32	£4.08bn	£2.78bn	-£1.30bn
Universal childcare entitlement	2030-31	£3.99bn	£2.72bn	-£1.27bn
Universal childcare entitlement	2029-30	£3.88bn	£2.64bn	-£1.24bn
Universal childcare entitlement	2028-29	£3.78bn	£2.58bn	-£1.21bn
Universal childcare entitlement	2027-28	£3.69bn	£2.51bn	-£1.18bn
Universal childcare entitlement	2026-27	£3.59bn	£2.45bn	-£1.15bn
Extended childcare entitlement	2031-32	687k	743k	+56.3k
Extended childcare entitlement	2030-31	686k	741k	+54.8k
Extended childcare entitlement	2029-30	682k	737k	+54.7k
Extended childcare entitlement	2028-29	677k	732k	+54.4k
Extended childcare entitlement	2027-28	675k	728k	+53.5k
Extended childcare entitlement	2026-27	671k	724k	+53.3k
Extended childcare entitlement	2025-26	665k	718k	+53.1k
Universal childcare entitlement	2025-26	£3.32bn	£2.26bn	-£1.06bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2026-27	£391.15bn	£392.26bn	+£1.11bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2025-26	£366.42bn	£367.45bn	+£1.03bn
gov_balance	2026-27	£394.28bn	£395.39bn	+£1.11bn
gov_balance	2025-26	£369.55bn	£370.58bn	+£1.03bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2027-28	£421.99bn	£423.13bn	+£1.14bn
gov_balance	2027-28	£425.12bn	£426.26bn	+£1.14bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2028-29	£448.18bn	£449.35bn	+£1.17bn
gov_balance	2028-29	£451.31bn	£452.48bn	+£1.17bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2029-30	£475.87bn	£477.06bn	+£1.20bn
gov_balance	2029-30	£479.00bn	£480.19bn	+£1.20bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2030-31	£503.61bn	£504.85bn	+£1.24bn
gov_balance	2030-31	£506.74bn	£507.98bn	+£1.24bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2031-32	£535.36bn	£536.62bn	+£1.25bn
gov_balance	2031-32	£538.49bn	£539.75bn	+£1.25bn
gov_spending	2030-31	£578.99bn	£577.76bn	-£1.24bn
household_benefits	2030-31	£578.99bn	£577.76bn	-£1.24bn
Government spending	2030-31	£578.99bn	£577.76bn	-£1.24bn
gov_spending	2031-32	£588.12bn	£586.86bn	-£1.25bn
household_benefits	2031-32	£588.12bn	£586.86bn	-£1.25bn
Government spending	2031-32	£588.12bn	£586.86bn	-£1.25bn
gov_spending	2029-30	£569.80bn	£568.60bn	-£1.20bn
household_benefits	2029-30	£569.80bn	£568.60bn	-£1.20bn
Government spending	2029-30	£569.80bn	£568.60bn	-£1.20bn
gov_spending	2028-29	£561.20bn	£560.03bn	-£1.17bn
household_benefits	2028-29	£561.20bn	£560.03bn	-£1.17bn
Government spending	2028-29	£561.20bn	£560.03bn	-£1.17bn

22 more flags are in the report artifact.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Extended childcare entitlement	+£25.7m	+£35.6m	+£35.7m	+£36.0m	+£37.6m	+£36.8m	+£46.0m
Universal childcare entitlement	-£1.06bn	-£1.15bn	-£1.18bn	-£1.21bn	-£1.24bn	-£1.27bn	-£1.30bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Extended childcare entitlement	+53.1k	+53.3k	+53.5k	+54.4k	+54.7k	+54.8k	+56.3k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	-£1.03bn †	-£1.11bn †	-£1.14bn †	-£1.17bn †	-£1.20bn †	-£1.24bn †	-£1.25bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£1.03bn †	+£1.11bn †	+£1.14bn †	+£1.17bn †	+£1.20bn †	+£1.24bn †	+£1.25bn †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	-£1.03bn †	-£1.11bn †	-£1.14bn †	-£1.17bn †	-£1.20bn †	-£1.24bn †	-£1.25bn †
household_benefits	-£1.03bn †	-£1.11bn †	-£1.14bn †	-£1.17bn †	-£1.20bn †	-£1.24bn †	-£1.25bn †
gov_balance	+£1.03bn †	+£1.11bn †	+£1.14bn †	+£1.17bn †	+£1.20bn †	+£1.24bn †	+£1.25bn †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£1.03bn †	-£1.11bn †	-£1.14bn †	-£1.17bn †	-£1.20bn †	-£1.24bn †	-£1.25bn †

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£23 †	-£16 †	-£15 †	-£15 †	-£17 †	-£17 †	-£17 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£24 †	-£31 †	-£28 †	-£29 †	-£28 †	-£32 †	-£32 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£32 †	-£34 †	-£39 †	-£39 †	-£40 †	-£39 †	-£40 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£26 †	-£30 †	-£32 †	-£33 †	-£35 †	-£36 †	-£39 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£10 †	-£7.52 †	-£7.76 †	-£7.61 †	-£6.36 †	-£6.21 †	-£1.03 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£21 †	-£27 †	-£29 †	-£30 †	-£29 †	-£45 †	-£48 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£30 †	-£32 †	-£33 †	-£33 †	-£36 †	-£21 †	-£19 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£65 †	-£69 †	-£69 †	-£73 †	-£76 †	-£78 †	-£78 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	-£62 †	-£67 †	-£70 †	-£69 †	-£70 †	-£72 †	-£79 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£43 †	-£47 †	-£48 †	-£49 †	-£50 †	-£50 †	-£46 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£15	+£55	-£2	-£8	+£134	-£130	+£47
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£85	+£3	+£33	-£18	+£57	-£21	-£34
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£63	+£8	+£22	+£13	+£142	-£43	+£25
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£4	+£743	-£578	-£2	+£45	-£4	-£355
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£49	+£64	+£71	+£36	+£88	+£90	-£107
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£96	-£2	-£14	+£28	+£96	-£54	+£17
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£159	+£219	+£33	+£1	+£8	+£12	-£49
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£1	+£6	+£22	-£0	+£32	-£65	-£8
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£19	+£83	+£47	+£21	+£66	-£90	-£7
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£11	-£0	+£257	-£131	-£285	-£135	-£258

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	-£23 (-0.1%)	-£16 (-0.1%)	-£15 (-0.1%)	-£15 (-0.1%)	-£17 (-0.1%)	-£17 (-0.1%)	-£17 (-0.1%)
Decile 2	-£24 (-0.1%)	-£31 (-0.1%)	-£28 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£28 (-0.1%)	-£32 (-0.1%)	-£32 (-0.1%)
Decile 3	-£32 (-0.1%)	-£34 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)	-£40 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)	-£40 (-0.1%)
Decile 4	-£26 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£32 (-0.1%)	-£33 (-0.1%)	-£35 (-0.1%)	-£36 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)
Decile 5	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)
Decile 6	-£21 (-0.0%)	-£27 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£45 (-0.1%)	-£48 (-0.1%)
Decile 7	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£32 (-0.1%)	-£33 (-0.1%)	-£33 (-0.1%)	-£36 (-0.1%)	-£21 (-0.0%)	-£19 (-0.0%)
Decile 8	-£65 (-0.1%)	-£69 (-0.1%)	-£69 (-0.1%)	-£73 (-0.1%)	-£76 (-0.1%)	-£78 (-0.1%)	-£78 (-0.1%)
Decile 9	-£62 (-0.1%)	-£67 (-0.1%)	-£70 (-0.1%)	-£69 (-0.1%)	-£70 (-0.1%)	-£72 (-0.1%)	-£79 (-0.1%)
Decile 10	-£43 (-0.0%)	-£47 (-0.0%)	-£48 (-0.0%)	-£49 (-0.0%)	-£50 (-0.0%)	-£50 (-0.0%)	-£46 (-0.0%)
all	-£33 (-0.1%)	-£35 (-0.1%)	-£36 (-0.1%)	-£37 (-0.1%)	-£38 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.3%	3.1%
2026-27	0.3%	3.1%
2027-28	0.3%	3.1%
2028-29	0.3%	3.1%
2029-30	0.3%	3.1%
2030-31	0.3%	3.1%
2031-32	0.3%	3.1%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; components the model counts twice; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `849975f27b`	uk 2.146.6 (files `80f68805b134`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`63a673d207d1`	`f210f83d5be4`	1490.63s
head	#2570 merged into main `541c23b183`	uk 2.146.6 (files `08ace5d92340`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`63a673d207d1`	`f210f83d5be4`	1542.78s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£82.55bn	£84.28bn	£85.26bn	£86.64bn	£87.92bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.69bn	£3.18bn	£3.26bn	£3.33bn	£3.42bn	£3.51bn	£3.60bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.26bn	£2.45bn	£2.51bn	£2.58bn	£2.64bn	£2.72bn	£2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,402k	6,412k	6,386k	6,378k	6,363k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,029k	1,033k	1,035k	1,039k	1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement	718k	724k	728k	732k	737k	741k	743k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£531.94bn †	£546.98bn †	£553.05bn †	£560.03bn †	£568.60bn †	£577.76bn †	£586.86bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£367.45bn †	£392.26bn †	£423.13bn †	£449.35bn †	£477.06bn †	£504.85bn †	£536.62bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.31bn	£1,012.51bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.73bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.75bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£531.94bn †	£546.98bn †	£553.05bn †	£560.03bn †	£568.60bn †	£577.76bn †	£586.86bn †
household_benefits	£531.94bn †	£546.98bn †	£553.05bn †	£560.03bn †	£568.60bn †	£577.76bn †	£586.86bn †
gov_balance	£370.58bn †	£395.39bn †	£426.26bn †	£452.48bn †	£480.19bn †	£507.98bn †	£539.75bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,653.56bn †	£1,702.81bn †	£1,734.40bn †	£1,768.44bn †	£1,804.55bn †	£1,846.11bn †	£1,897.79bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,463.15bn	£1,510.70bn	£1,542.73bn	£1,575.67bn	£1,609.74bn	£1,648.74bn	£1,699.14bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.2%	15.7%	15.8%	15.9%	16.0%	15.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.4%	22.0%	21.9%	22.1%	22.3%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.4%	14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.2%	22.4%	22.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.6%	31.8%	32.4%	32.9%	33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.4%	20.6%	20.9%	21.2%	21.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.4%	16.5%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.7%	23.6%	23.2%	23.3%	23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.4%	14.3%	14.0%	14.0%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.4%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.4%	31.3%	31.3%	31.5%	32.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.2%	12.2%	12.9%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,270k	10,578k	10,975k	11,077k	11,210k	11,339k	11,354k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,696k	3,227k	3,332k	3,325k	3,371k	3,407k	3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,940k	5,792k	6,115k	6,209k	6,281k	6,360k	6,367k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,972k	14,539k	15,080k	15,313k	15,657k	15,918k	16,049k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,005k	4,656k	4,776k	4,818k	4,933k	5,035k	5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,445k	8,399k	8,848k	9,001k	9,191k	9,342k	9,400k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,980k	11,485k	11,639k	11,698k	11,596k	11,730k	11,890k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,967k	3,570k	3,578k	3,587k	3,531k	3,566k	3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,227k	6,161k	6,401k	6,485k	6,468k	6,552k	6,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,785k	1,754k	1,660k	1,627k	1,597k	1,611k	1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,057k	14,705k	14,981k	15,071k	15,191k	15,336k	15,683k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,024k	4,718k	4,751k	4,755k	4,774k	4,816k	4,937k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,480k	8,486k	8,784k	8,917k	9,017k	9,112k	9,256k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,552k	1,501k	1,445k	1,399k	1,399k	1,408k	1,491k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3087	0.3060	0.3074	0.3080	0.3085	0.3091	0.3102

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,789 †	£17,970 †	£17,920 †	£17,977 †	£18,305 †	£18,487 †	£18,664 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,075 †	£29,032 †	£28,684 †	£29,103 †	£29,375 †	£29,941 †	£30,386 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,397 †	£35,623 †	£36,172 †	£36,574 †	£36,910 †	£37,423 †	£38,318 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,310 †	£40,956 †	£41,896 †	£42,643 †	£43,210 †	£43,954 †	£44,483 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,613 †	£44,933 †	£45,790 †	£46,503 †	£47,541 †	£48,486 †	£49,689 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,417 †	£49,698 †	£50,857 †	£51,632 †	£52,083 †	£53,402 †	£54,305 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,271 †	£57,461 †	£58,292 †	£59,029 †	£60,066 †	£60,789 †	£62,887 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,696 †	£70,286 †	£71,615 †	£72,722 †	£74,302 †	£75,676 †	£77,457 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,578 †	£81,928 †	£83,118 †	£84,413 †	£85,981 †	£87,493 †	£90,562 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,542 †	£120,412 †	£122,340 †	£124,471 †	£126,719 †	£128,989 †	£131,806 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.40bn	£-21.83bn	£-21.91bn	£-22.28bn	£-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.48bn	£12.82bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.39bn	£21.82bn	£21.90bn	£22.27bn	£22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.24bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

…view current_education is enrolment at the survey interview, so as a reception flag it caught about half the children who start reception in September and applied to the whole year. A child is entitled to a reception place in the September following its fourth birthday (School Admissions Code 2021 para 2.17), and the place then meets the universal and working parent duties, so such a child keeps the summer term only. early_years_term_share_before_school replaces early_years_child_in_school: the share of the year's terms that begin before the child starts school, from the date of birth. - England and Wales: the September following the fourth birthday. - Scotland: primary 1 in August for children who turn five from March to the next February (Education (Scotland) Act 1980 s.32). - Northern Ireland: September for children who are four by 1 July (Education and Libraries (Northern Ireland) Order 1986 art 46(2)). Universal hours and the working parent total are scaled by it, and a child stays eligible while any term comes before school. early_years_school_start_deferred keeps the year for a deferred start or a council-funded independent reception place. The term start dates move to utils.dates.term_starts, shared with the minimum-age term share. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

juaristi22 · 2026-10-22T12:39:27Z

@vahid-ahmadi thanks. a464aac (pushed) addresses the two shoulds and the Axiom nit, and the minimum-age nit is answered below. The PR body is updated.

should, the reception flag: done, with the date rule you suggested.
- early_years_term_share_before_school replaces early_years_child_in_school. It is the share of the year's terms before the child starts school, worked out from the date of birth:
  - England and Wales: the September following the fourth birthday;
  - Scotland: August, for children who turn five from March to the next February (Education (Scotland) Act 1980 s.32);
  - Northern Ireland: September, for children who are four by 1 July (art 46(2)). Nothing reads this one yet.
- Universal hours and the working parent total are scaled by the share, so a September starter keeps the summer term only. On a858c100 this gives the same 2027-28 figure for 4-year-olds as your estimate.
- The override is a separate input, early_years_school_start_deferred. It covers a deferred start or a council-funded independent reception place. It is not the boolean, because a situation that sets a variable for some people gives the others its default, not its formula. Overriding the share directly would have put a sibling on the default. For the same reason the share defaults to 1.
- current_education is no longer read. A household simulation that gives only a whole age of 4 now gets a third of the year, since the child is taken to be born on 6 April. The changelog says so.
- Tests:
  - test_early_years_school_start.py checks every date of birth for ages 3 to 5 in each nation against a calendar-date reference.
  - The YAML covers each cohort boundary, and a deferred start beside a sibling.
  - The property test draws deferred starts.
should, the uk-data issue: filed as Refit childcare take-up for funded hours that stop at school entry and start by term (policyengine-uk#2570) policyengine-uk-data#633, citing finding 1.
- It asks for the refit after the release, with caseloads on DfE's January basis: children funded in the spring term. The annual is_child_receiving_* flags still count summer-term-only 4-year-olds.
- It links Count working parent children in the universal childcare caseload target policyengine-uk-data#545 for the universal comparator.
- It notes that Give children recorded as aged 0 an age in months policyengine-uk-data#547 is no longer needed for the nine-month rule.
nit, parameters by term: left for later, and listed under Not in this PR.
- Reading the minimum age at each term start would not change 2024-25 on its own. The under-2 bracket in hours.yaml starts in January 2025, so the autumn 2024 term would still pay nothing.
- Doing it properly means preserve_calendar_dates on both parameters and re-dating that bracket to September 2024. Every reader of the hours schedule would then have to annualise it.
- It affects past years only, so I'd rather do it on its own.
nit, Axiom: posted.
- An extension comment on Encode Childcare Act 2016 s.1 and SI 2022/1134 regs 14 and 15 (extended childcare parent and partner conditions) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#364: reg 27, with regs 20(a) and 25(1), and SI 2016/1257 reg 35(3).
- An extension comment on Encode Childcare Act 2016 s.1(1) and (6): working parent hours count the s.7(1) universal and early learning hours (PE parity: policyengine-uk#2177) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#439: the reception place, now with its admission date.
- A new pe-parity issue for s.47(2): Encode Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s.47(2): eligible pre-school children for funded early learning and childcare (PE parity: policyengine-uk#2570) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#484.
- The axiom: line links all three.

On merge order: #2535 should read early_years_term_share_before_school. Everything else you listed stands.

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vahid-ahmadi

@juaristi22 thanks, this is my review at a464aac656954380c992b1a1ed04dca6cde65122.

Both shoulds are resolved, so I'm approving. The date rule does what I hoped: the cost lands where the round 1 estimate said, and the £100,000 reform cost is now the same as on main. I have two small new nits, both fine as follow-ups. CI at this sha: Changes, Fix evidence and the docs test build pass; Lint, the YAML and Python shards, smoke imports, the docs build and Aggregate impact were still running when I posted. The Aggregate impact comment on the PR is from the round 1 head, so its universal caseload drop of about 300k no longer applies.

Round 1 findings

should, reception flag: resolved. early_years_term_share_before_school.py:57-72 works out the school start from the date of birth, and current_education is no longer read.
- I checked each nation's cohort boundary against the source, read today. England: the September following the fourth birthday (Admissions Code 2.17), so 1 September. Scotland: Education (Scotland) Act 1980 s.32(4), (6) and (7) give an August start for children who turn five by the latest date, so 1 March. Northern Ireland: art 46(2)(a) and (b) give 1 August for a child who is four by 1 July, so 2 July. start_year and the strict < against the term starts get every boundary right, including 29 February.
- On Microcosm a858c100, 88% of English 4-year-olds now get the summer term only, against 52% flagged before. In 2027-28, 4-year-olds keep £1.11bn of funded hours, the same as the date rule estimate in round 1.
- Using a separate early_years_school_start_deferred input is the right call, for the reason you give. Defaulting the share to 1 keeps a sibling on the formula.
should, uk-data issue: resolved. PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#633 is open and cites this PR and finding 1. The spring-term caseload basis is right, since is_child_receiving_extended_childcare now counts summer-term-only 4-year-olds (236.8k aged 4 in England in 2027-28, the same as main).
nit, parameters by term: agreed to leave. hours.yaml does start the under-2 bracket in January 2025, so reading the minimum age by term would not fix autumn 2024 by itself. It's listed under Not in this PR.
nit, Axiom: resolved. Both extension comments on rulespec-uk#364 and #439 are posted, and #484 exists. The axiom: line links all three.

What I checked again

Code. In universal_childcare_entitlement.py:33-48, the share scales base_value before the standalone and participating branches, so both see it. extended_childcare_entitlement_total_per_child.py:44-53 scales by both shares. extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child.py does not need the school share again: the term share is 1 for every child of school-starting age. Scotland's eligibility only gains before_school > 0 and still has no consumer.
Household default. A bare age of 4 now gets a third of the year. That is a visible change for app users, but it is the right modal case, and the changelog says so.
Tests, in a fresh venv at this sha. The DfE, Scottish and demographic YAML tests pass (361), as do test_early_years_school_start.py, test_extended_childcare_term_share.py, test_childcare_entitlement_floor_properties.py, test_date_of_birth.py and test_childcare_funding_rates.py (53). ruff format --check, ruff check and the F811/F821 check are clean on the changed Python files.

Effect on costs (Microcosm a858c100, England, £bn)

2027-28	main	round 1	this head
Funded hours (universal + targeted + extended)	11.44	10.24	10.18
Static cost of removing the £100,000 limit (funded hours only)	0.930	0.917	0.930

The reception rule and the term rule now offset almost exactly on the £100,000 reform. In round 1 they moved it by -0.085bn and +0.07bn.
Until #633 refits take-up, this PR still lowers baseline funded hours by about £1.3bn in 2027-28.

New findings

nit: 5-year-olds with a summer term before school still get nothing. The whole-year age gates (age < p.age.max at universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible.py:32 and under_compulsory_school_age in extended_childcare_entitlement_qualifying_child.py) drop a child aged 5 on the reference date who starts reception in September. In England that is a child born from 1 September to early October, and 8.6% of English 5-year-olds have a share of a third. They are entitled to the summer term, like the 4-year-olds this PR fixes. It's older than this PR and small, so adding it to "Other start dates" under Not in this PR is enough.
nit: the deferred flag keeps the whole year for any deferral. The docstring at early_years_school_start_deferred.py:9-14 covers a deferral "until later in the school year". A child deferred to January gets the summer and autumn terms, not the spring term too. One clause saying the flag fits a deferral to the summer term or a year out of age group would do.

Overlaps and merge order

Unchanged from round 1. #2535 should read early_years_term_share_before_school, as you say. #2557 and #2552 are unaffected by the third commit.

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MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T16:08:39Z

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head a464aac65, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

Review: @vahid-ahmadi (22 Oct) approved at this exact head.
CI: every check on gh pr checks passed at this head.
Why now: Max asked (22 Oct) to clear the policyengine-uk PR backlog before the Autumn Budget on 28 October, without waiting on each other.

The UK lock moves from 2.145.0 to 2.147.2 (policyengine-core stays at 3.33.3). 2.147.2 stops the early years hours at school start by date of birth and starts working-parent hours the term after the minimum age (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2570). The uprating pins' stamp, the concept coverage (311 to 314 inputs), the coverage manifest, the cited versions and APPROVED_UV_LOCK_SHA256 re-derive. The liquid-asset reason follows 2.147.0's share_like_capital; the three new inputs stay at their defaults. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

juaristi22 and others added 2 commits October 22, 2026 11:56

juaristi22 marked this pull request as ready for review October 22, 2026 11:17

vahid-ahmadi reviewed Oct 22, 2026

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vahid-ahmadi approved these changes Oct 22, 2026

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juaristi22 enabled auto-merge October 22, 2026 13:06

juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

UK: track the defects uk-data is fixing that microcosm still has PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095

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Stop early years hours once a child starts school, and start working parent hours with the next term - #2570

Stop early years hours once a child starts school, and start working parent hours with the next term#2570
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What and why

1. No funded early years hours once a child has started school (e64fc90, then a464aac)

2. Working parent hours start with the term after the minimum age (369f550)

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What I checked

Effect on costs (Microcosm a858c100, England, £bn)

Findings

Overlaps and merge order

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

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Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Government balance, each component counted once

Model totals

Household income totals

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Household net income by decile

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juaristi22 commented Oct 22, 2026

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Round 1 findings

What I checked again

Effect on costs (Microcosm a858c100, England, £bn)

New findings

Overlaps and merge order

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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3 participants

juaristi22 commented Oct 22, 2026 •

edited

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1. No funded early years hours once a child has started school (`e64fc90`, then `a464aac`)

2. Working parent hours start with the term after the minimum age (`369f550`)

github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026 •

edited

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