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Restrict the ordinary ATI pension uplift to relief at source - #2488

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juaristi22 merged 3 commits into
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fix-2486-ordinary-ati-net-pay-limit
Oct 20, 2026
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juaristi22 merged 3 commits into
mainfrom
fix-2486-ordinary-ati-net-pay-limit

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@juaristi22

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Fixes #2486

Ordinary loss-cap adjusted total income (ATI) lets pure net-pay pension contributions use the basic-amount uplift above relevant earnings. Limit that increment to actual gross personal pension contributions, the model's relief-at-source input, while retaining the cap on all member contributions. Preserve ATI's own taxable-employment/statutory-pay and pre-carry-forward-profit base, age gate, zero floor and reformable parameters.

A source-native 2026 case has £2,000 pay, £250,000 dividends, a £200,000 trading loss and £3,600 reported employee pension contributions. Current ATI is £248,400 and final tax £59,954.86; corrected ATI is £250,000 and final tax £59,797.46. The £2,000-payment control already gives the corrected result. No calculated tax base, relief or award is forced as input. Mixed net-pay £3,000/RAS £600 retains £2,600 relief under the existing input convention; pure RAS keeps the basic uplift.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/reliefs/adjusted_total_income_pension_relief.yaml::Pure net pay above earnings cannot use the RAS basic uplift

Validation: 68 distinct cases pass (14 new YAML + 54 existing pension/trading-loss cases, including unchanged properties). Genuine RED: 10 passes/4 failures before production changes, including final tax, mixed payments, person separation and query order. No expectations or property domains/settings changed. make format, lint, protected-file/AST checks and the trusted-base committed-head fix-evidence gate pass.

Actual offline runtime: Python 3.13.14, Core 3.32.27 and microdf 1.2.1; locked Core 3.33.2/microdf 1.5.11 were not run locally. Four cached official sources/extracts reused; no new requests, install, private-population impact, broader pension/history audit or parity run.

Draft #2066 changes winter-fuel accounting in this same file. Whichever lands second must preserve both that accounting and this RAS restriction. Draft #2441 explicitly defers ordinary ATI; its unmerged utility is not imported. This change retains the existing scheme-input convention and does not certify a new mixed-scheme allocation contract.

axiom: needed

@juaristi22 juaristi22 self-assigned this Oct 17, 2026

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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Looks right, fine to approve.

@juaristi22, the fix follows FA 2004. Under s 190(1) relief is capped at relevant UK earnings. Section 190(2) raises the cap to the basic amount, and s 190(3) makes that subject to s 191(7), which says the increase "may only be given in accordance with section 192" (relief at source). The new basic_amount_increase is the same expression that pension_contributions_relief.py:53-61 already uses, so the ATI cap and the relief itself now agree.

  1. nit: adjusted_total_income.py:65-75 and pension_contributions_relief.py:53-61 now compute the same uplift with different earnings bases. ATI uses taxable_employment_income plus profits before carry-forward. The relief uses employment_income plus positive profits. The PR body says the ATI base is kept on purpose, and I agree that this PR is not the place to change it. A shared helper would stop the two copies drifting. This is fine as a follow-up.
  2. nit: the mixed case (net pay £3,000, relief at source £600, earnings £2,000) gives £2,600. That is right whichever contributions take the earnings-limited £2,000 first, because only the £600 can use the £1,600 uplift. A one-line comment in the YAML saying so would help the next reader.

What I checked

  • Read the full diff, the PR body and #2486. Checked FA 2004 ss 190 and 191 on legislation.gov.uk.
  • Hand-computed the primary 2026 case. ATI = £252,000 − £2,000 = £250,000. Cap = max(£50,000, 25% × £250,000) = £62,500. ANI = £252,000 − £62,500 − £2,000 = £187,500, so the personal allowance is nil. Tax = (£37,700 − £500) × 10.75% + (£125,140 − £37,700) × 35.75% + (£187,500 − £125,140) × 39.35% = £59,797.46, matching the YAML.
  • policyengine-core test on adjusted_total_income_pension_relief.yaml: 14 passed. On the whole income_tax/reliefs folder: 60 passed.
  • Reverted adjusted_total_income.py to main: 4 of the 14 cases fail, including the Reproducer.
  • ruff check and ruff format --check on the changed variable: clean.
  • Hosted CI: all 14 checks pass at 3a195c3.
  • The changelog fragment is fixed. The Reproducer and axiom lines are present.
  • As the body says, draft #2066 edits the same file. I did not check that merge.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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Approving, per my review above. The nits can follow.

vahid-ahmadi added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 18, 2026
The page said the earnings limit applies first, so someone with no
earnings gets no relief, and that the annual allowance caps relief. On
main, relief at source can use the £3,600 basic amount above earnings
(FA 2004 s. 191(7)), the annual allowance does not limit relief, the
taper tests adjusted and threshold income, the charge is sliced across
the rate bands, and relieved contributions reduce adjusted net income.
Mentions #2464 (SSP and SMP in relevant earnings) and #2488 (ATI uplift)
as pending. Figures re-run on policyengine-uk 2.135.6.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@juaristi22
juaristi22 added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 19, 2026
@juaristi22
juaristi22 removed this pull request from the merge queue due to a manual request Oct 20, 2026
@juaristi22

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Integrated current main (47642d1) and corrected only the statutory-pay ATI fixture’s pension-relief expectation from £3,600 to £4,000. Its inputs, £250,000 ATI, tolerance, production logic and existing changelog are unchanged.

Local validation passed 38 focused YAML cases, 318 income-tax programme cases (14 overlap with the focused run), and 17 Python tests. Independent verification also passed the 38 focused cases. Formatting, lint, source/preservation and actual-base Fix checks passed. Hosted CI for the updated head remains pending.

Axiom-needed follow-up remains open; no parity is claimed. The updated head needs a fresh review before any future queue admission.

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 47642d1ee0 against head 23529c9cb5, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 47642d1ee0 uk 2.140.0 (files 6811dd0f7ec5), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 5e53eba11a50 0d0426ee9e38 870.64s
head #2488 merged into main 23529c9cb5 uk 2.140.0 (files 427928c56eee), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 5e53eba11a50 0d0426ee9e38 872.59s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £318.98bn £336.45bn £351.55bn £367.04bn £385.12bn £403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.51bn £62.45bn £64.90bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £175.57bn £181.08bn £188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.49bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.50bn £127.12bn £128.28bn £130.21bn £134.05bn £138.02bn £142.08bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.06bn £7.04bn £7.11bn £7.23bn £7.37bn £7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.78bn £83.09bn £84.89bn £86.65bn £87.58bn £89.00bn £90.33bn
Housing Benefit £8.60bn £8.93bn £9.20bn £9.34bn £9.62bn £9.88bn £10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.24bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,477k 1,455k 1,457k 1,454k 1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,008k 6,593k 6,509k 6,491k 6,377k 6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,419k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,253k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,213k 3,226k 3,247k 3,263k 3,282k 3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 81k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.39bn £939.21bn £976.17bn £1,009.31bn £1,044.89bn £1,081.66bn £1,122.50bn
Government spending £536.61bn † £550.95bn † £557.29bn † £564.36bn † £572.91bn † £582.17bn † £591.33bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.78bn † £388.26bn † £418.88bn † £444.96bn † £471.97bn † £499.50bn † £531.17bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.52bn £942.34bn £979.30bn £1,012.44bn £1,048.02bn £1,084.79bn £1,125.63bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.63bn £548.43bn £570.57bn £592.62bn £617.00bn £643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.34bn £514.51bn £540.08bn £561.53bn £583.34bn £607.46bn £633.81bn
gov_spending £536.61bn † £550.95bn † £557.29bn † £564.36bn † £572.91bn † £582.17bn † £591.33bn †
household_benefits £536.61bn † £550.95bn † £557.29bn † £564.36bn † £572.91bn † £582.17bn † £591.33bn †
gov_balance £365.91bn † £391.39bn † £422.01bn † £448.09bn † £475.10bn † £502.63bn † £534.30bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,887.41bn £1,945.59bn £2,017.37bn
Household net income £1,658.22bn † £1,706.81bn † £1,738.65bn † £1,772.83bn † £1,809.10bn † £1,850.82bn † £1,902.56bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.78bn £1,513.59bn £1,545.85bn £1,578.89bn £1,613.08bn £1,652.21bn £1,702.66bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 14.9% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.6% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 20.9% 20.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.5% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 31.8% 30.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.2% 31.6% 31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.4% 19.2% 20.0% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.2% 12.0% 12.2% 12.2% 12.3% 12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.3% 23.2% 23.3% 23.4% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9% 15.1% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.2% 14.2% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.5% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 32.6% 31.3% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.3% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.6% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.3% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.3% 12.2% 12.3%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,051k 10,427k 10,848k 10,947k 11,078k 11,209k 11,217k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,560k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,864k 5,737k 6,070k 6,165k 6,237k 6,314k 6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,627k 1,549k 1,517k 1,529k 1,543k 1,560k 1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,540k 14,214k 14,692k 14,933k 15,150k 15,388k 15,522k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,767k 4,515k 4,643k 4,699k 4,756k 4,835k 4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,277k 8,253k 8,666k 8,844k 8,993k 9,141k 9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,496k 1,445k 1,382k 1,390k 1,402k 1,412k 1,424k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,759k 11,456k 11,529k 11,625k 11,706k 11,867k 11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,538k 3,515k 3,525k 3,546k 3,582k 3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,160k 6,366k 6,465k 6,537k 6,651k 6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,758k 1,648k 1,634k 1,623k 1,634k 1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,912k 14,719k 14,901k 15,009k 15,218k 15,281k 15,509k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,889k 4,715k 4,697k 4,720k 4,791k 4,799k 4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,435k 8,497k 8,758k 8,884k 9,018k 9,074k 9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,588k 1,506k 1,446k 1,406k 1,408k 1,408k 1,422k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3065 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,707 † £17,997 † £17,941 † £18,017 † £18,326 † £18,522 † £18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,364 † £29,040 † £28,680 † £29,001 † £29,377 † £29,781 † £30,332 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,611 † £35,900 † £36,502 † £37,005 † £37,283 † £37,961 † £38,665 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,326 † £40,904 † £41,932 † £42,824 † £43,176 † £43,833 † £44,936 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,874 † £46,154 † £46,943 † £47,447 † £48,381 † £49,255 † £50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,930 † £49,323 † £50,259 † £51,047 † £52,157 † £52,925 † £54,240 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,335 † £57,591 † £58,487 † £59,458 † £60,171 † £61,648 † £62,900 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,228 † £70,340 † £71,615 † £72,863 † £74,332 † £75,678 † £77,547 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,674 † £82,009 † £83,247 † £84,449 † £86,137 † £87,749 † £89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,666 † £120,533 † £122,448 † £124,609 † £126,968 † £129,679 † £132,877 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.71bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.35bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.11bn £-4.20bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.96bn £-22.33bn £-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.46bn £12.80bn £13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.43bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-8.93bn £-9.14bn £-9.04bn £-9.09bn £-9.29bn £-9.54bn £-9.81bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.87bn £7.07bn £7.29bn £7.53bn £7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.54bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.11bn £-4.19bn £-4.27bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.77bn £13.12bn £13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.38bn £3.43bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £12.25bn £12.71bn £12.83bn £13.02bn £13.41bn £13.80bn £14.21bn

@juaristi22
juaristi22 added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 20, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 9cf93da Oct 20, 2026
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@juaristi22
juaristi22 deleted the fix-2486-ordinary-ati-net-pay-limit branch October 20, 2026 22:12
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 21, 2026
…benefits

No conflicts: none of the ten files main changed since 76cfc9e is
changed by this PR.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 21, 2026
…arge

adjusted_total_income: main's #2488 relief limit (relevant earnings, raised
towards the basic amount only by relief-at-source contributions) with this
branch's Step 1 from total_income_charged_to_tax and its net pay add-back.
Documentation keeps both. The net pay property test's reference takes
#2488's limit for invariant 3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
juaristi22 added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 21, 2026
…income

adjusted_total_income gave contributions relief up to its own earnings
figure (taxable employment income plus trading profits before losses
brought forward), while pension_contributions_relief and the annual
allowance tests used pay before expenses plus trading profit before capital
allowances and the trading allowance. Finance Act 2004 s. 189(2) counts
employment income chargeable to income tax, here pay and statutory pay less
allowable expenses but before the pension deductions the relief itself
gives, and income chargeable under ITTOIA 2005 Part 2, which is after
capital allowances and the trading allowance and before losses.

Move that definition into utils/pensions.py (relevant_uk_earnings and
trading_profits_before_losses) and use it, with
pension_contributions_relief_amount, in all four places. The relief-at-source
limit on the basic amount is unchanged from #2488.

Part of #2523; follows #2488.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Ordinary loss-cap adjusted total income gives the basic RAS uplift to pure net pay

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