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Apply minimum ages to computed carer and DLA mobility awards - #2474

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fix-1793-benefit-minimum-ages
Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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fix-1793-benefit-minimum-ages

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@juaristi22

@juaristi22 juaristi22 commented Oct 17, 2026 •

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Fixes #1793.

Computed Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment now require the person's annual age to be at least 16, including routes triggered by reported receipt. DLA mobility applies age 3 to HIGHER and age 5 to LOWER categories. The DLA care component, rates, overlap, claim preferences and generic explicit amount overrides retain their behavior.

The new independently reformable age parameters use CA section 70(3) and its NI counterpart, CSP regulation 4(1), and DLA section 73 in GB and NI. CA's 2015-01-01 parameter date is the existing model-coverage anchor, not legal commencement. CSP uses 19 November 2023 and DLA mobility 9 April 2001. These changes preserve the modeled Scottish 2024 CA/2025 CSP switch and do not extend historical rate coverage.

Age remains a Person/YEAR FLOAT stock compared directly, without rounding or a new birthday/part-year calculation. Positive cash cases assume the remaining qualifying-care/disability/duration conditions; report-only positives retain an input proxy. Direct final/pre-overlap amounts remain overrides, not statutory entitlement proof. There is no new DLA-care floor, PIP/CDP/upper-age, education or caree-status rule. The assumptions page records these limits, including CSP's unimplemented exact leap-day treatment.

Historical validation at 312b572: the 14 natural actual-rate YAML cases produced 9 genuine cash failures and 5 passing controls on untouched production. One bounded combined run passed 109 unique cases:33 new (14 YAML/19 Python) and 76 unchanged direct regressions, with 0 failures/errors/skips;54.747 s pytest/62.2458 s CLI. Cases cover both carer routes, age/fractional boundaries, DLA totals/care preservation, programme-specific age reforms, direct overrides, default age and personal/multiple-family/order isolation. Native HTML build passed in10.7355 s; existing config/Node warnings and public-template bootstrap are retained.

That historical validation used Python 3.13.14/Core 3.32.27/Hypothesis 6.168.2 versus locked Core 3.33.2/Hypothesis 6.169.0, without environment sync/install or private population data. Hosted full CI and human review remain required. No population effect or independently encoded parity was established; the historical Axiom 146 disposition does not certify this head.

Coordination: reviewed child commit 315e374 stacks on repaired #2473 commit d7f1a43, which integrates captured main42c01db9 after #2444. The shared CSP formula retains BOTH age and earnings conditions. Seven natural-input combined cases cover underage/age16, reported-receipt proxy, exact/fractional/first-excluded penny and personal mixed-vector behavior; two failed on unchanged production and all seven now pass. The original annual/award-week/PAYE and unmodelled-condition qualifications remain. The proposed publication base is the existing #2473 branch fix-2345-csp-earnings-limit; the child branch remains fix-1793-benefit-minimum-ages. Only after #2473 actually merges should this child retarget main and rerun combined cash checks against that integration before merging. Passing local tests or queue admission does not establish parent landing.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/integration/carer_and_dla_minimum_ages.yaml::Reported Carers Allowance cannot pay a fifteen year old

Current private runtime: Python3.13.14, UK2.141.1, Core3.33.2 and Hypothesis6.169.0, offline/no-sync with actual-worktree imports and external caches. Current combined validation passed 40 Python checks and 178 successful raw YAML checks (218 raw checks) across the frozen 12-file policy manifest, with no failures/errors/skips. Both affected assumptions pages built with cached MyST; existing builder warnings are retained. Historical counts above are not transferred to this combined head. Independent captured-head reviews are complete for these exact commits; fresh publication guards, new-head hosted CI and separate publication authority remain required.

Captured current-main check: separate local test projections of the reviewed heads with main c281c2e passed 17 CSP earnings/NI/pension-age YAML checks for #2473 and 21 age/earnings/DLA YAML checks for #2474. These projections used UK2.141.2/Core3.33.2. The checks overlap earlier validation; the counts are not added across heads or batches. They do not replace new-head hosted CI or establish that either PR has landed.

Pension reform scope remains open. Captured main c281c2e reads gov.dwp.carers_allowance.pension_contribution_deduction_rate, whose default is 0.5, through the shared CA earnings reader. Changing only that CA-labelled share from 0.5 to 0 changed a Scottish carer's earnings from £10,500 to £11,000 and CSP from £4,495.40 to £0 in the 2026 natural-input check (£11,000 pay, £1,000 employee pension contributions, age 45 and 40 weekly care hours). CSP schedule 2 paragraphs 9 and 12 separately specify half the individual's pension contributions. The shared reader has no independent CSP pension-share reform control. The default checks passed; no default-law defect, independent CA-only reform behavior or encoded parity is claimed. A proposed shared pre-floor calculation with programme-specific pension shares and locality tests remains an unimplemented follow-up.

axiom: needed

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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Fine once the clash with #2473 is settled.

@juaristi22, the ages and formulas match the statute. One process point and some nits.

  1. should: policyengine_uk/variables/gov/social_security_scotland/carer_support_payment_pre_overlap.py:33-40 conflicts textually with #2473, which adds the CSP earnings condition to the same eligible expression. I merged the two heads locally and git reports a content conflict there. You already flag this in the PR body. Whichever lands second needs a rebase that keeps both conditions, ideally with one combined YAML case covering age and earnings together.
  2. nit: policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/dla/mobility/higher_min_age.yaml:3 dates the age 3 rule from 9 April 2001 but cites only SSCBA s.73. Adding the Welfare Reform and Pensions Act 1999 amendment and its commencement as a reference would support the date.
  3. nit: policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/carers_allowance/min_age.yaml:5 uses 2015-01-01 as a model-coverage anchor. That is explained in the comment, but an earlier date would read less like a commencement date. Not a blocker.
  4. nit: s.70(3) also excludes people in full-time education, and #1793 mentions dla_sc. Both are outside this PR, which the body and assumptions page say. Worth a follow-up issue for the education rule so Fixes #1793 does not leave it untracked.

On the law:

  • SSCBA 1992 s.70(3): no Carer's Allowance under 16. Checked on legislation.gov.uk.
  • SSI 2023/302 reg. 4(1): CSP only for someone 16 or older. Checked on legislation.gov.uk.
  • SSCBA 1992 s.73(1) and (1A): the "relevant age" is 3 for the higher-rate conditions and 5 for the lower-rate condition (para. (d)). Checked on legislation.gov.uk. select falls through to 0 for a HIGHER or LOWER category below the age, so the child gets no mobility component, which is right.
  • DLA care is untouched, which matches the statute having no categorical floor there.

Hand checks (2026): higher mobility £80.00 × 52 = £4,160; lower mobility £30.30 × 52 = £1,575.60; higher care £114.60 × 52 = £5,959.20. These match the expectations in carer_and_dla_minimum_ages.yaml.

What I checked

  • Read the PR body, issue #1793 and the full diff. Fetched SSCBA s.70 and s.73 and SSI 2023/302 reg. 4.
  • policyengine-core test on carer_and_dla_minimum_ages.yaml: 14 passed. With the three formulas reverted to main: 9 failed, 5 passed, as the PR says.
  • pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_carer_and_dla_minimum_ages.py: 19 passed.
  • Social Security Scotland YAML tests, the Carer's Allowance YAML files and every YAML test using dla_m or dla_m_category: 139 passed.
  • ruff check and ruff format --check on the changed Python files: clean.
  • Hosted CI is green on the current head. Changelog fragment is fixed; Reproducer and axiom lines are present.
  • Merged with #2473 locally: content conflict. No overlap with the other open PRs I checked.
  • Not checked: the docs page build, and any population-level effect.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@juaristi22
juaristi22 changed the base branch from main to fix-2345-csp-earnings-limit October 20, 2026 14:56
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 42c01db91f against head 62c539b646, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 13 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2031-32 83k 73k -10.1k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 2031-32 83k 73k -10.1k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2030-31 83k 73k -10.0k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 2030-31 83k 73k -10.0k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2029-30 83k 73k -10.0k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 2029-30 83k 73k -10.0k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2028-29 82k 72k -9.9k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 2028-29 82k 72k -9.9k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2027-28 82k 72k -9.9k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 2027-28 82k 72k -9.9k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2026-27 82k 72k -9.9k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 2026-27 82k 72k -9.9k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 2025-26 81k 71k -9.8k

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£9.5m -£12.4m -£13.4m -£14.1m -£14.8m -£15.1m -£15.7m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Universal Credit +£29.1m +£30.3m +£31.1m +£31.9m +£32.6m +£33.4m +£34.3m
Disability Living Allowance -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.8m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -£42.6m -£44.4m -£45.5m -£46.6m -£47.8m -£49.0m -£50.2m
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -£6.0m -£6.0m -£6.0m -£6.1m -£6.1m -£6.1m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -9.8k -9.9k -9.9k -9.9k -10.0k -10.0k -10.1k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -9.9k -9.9k -9.9k -10.0k -10.0k -10.1k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£9.5m -£12.4m -£13.4m -£14.1m -£14.8m -£15.1m -£15.7m
Government spending -£14.1m † -£20.7m † -£21.2m † -£21.5m † -£22.0m † -£22.4m † -£22.8m †
Government balance, each receipt once +£4.7m † +£8.4m † +£7.8m † +£7.4m † +£7.1m † +£7.3m † +£7.1m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£9.5m -£12.4m -£13.4m -£14.1m -£14.8m -£15.1m -£15.7m
household_tax -£9.5m -£12.4m -£13.4m -£14.1m -£14.8m -£15.1m -£15.7m
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£9.5m -£12.4m -£13.4m -£14.1m -£14.8m -£15.1m -£15.7m
gov_spending -£14.1m † -£20.7m † -£21.2m † -£21.5m † -£22.0m † -£22.4m † -£22.8m †
household_benefits -£14.1m † -£20.7m † -£21.2m † -£21.5m † -£22.0m † -£22.4m † -£22.8m †
gov_balance +£4.7m † +£8.4m † +£7.8m † +£7.4m † +£7.1m † +£7.3m † +£7.1m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income -£4.7m † -£8.4m † -£7.8m † -£7.4m † -£7.1m † -£7.3m † -£7.1m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) -£4.7m -£8.4m -£7.8m -£7.4m -£7.1m -£7.3m -£7.1m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -11
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k -11

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household +£0.23 † +£0.11 † +£0.11 † +£0.12 † +£0.12 † +£0.12 † +£0.13 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household +£0.94 † +£0.18 † +£0.37 † +£0.58 † +£0.76 † +£0.86 † +£0.90 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household +£5.68 † +£5.72 † +£5.91 † -£0.30 † -£0.14 † -£0.23 † -£0.16 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£4.89 † -£5.03 † -£5.20 † +£0.11 † -£0.85 † +£0.07 † +£0.08 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household -£1.43 † -£1.64 † -£1.67 † -£1.71 † -£1.75 † -£1.78 † -£1.81 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household -£0.58 † -£0.57 † -£0.59 † -£0.69 † -£0.77 † -£0.88 † -£0.83 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£0 +£0 -£0 0 -£1 -£0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£0 0 -£0 -£0 -£1 0 +£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£79,992 -£31,815
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child 0 -£0 +£0 -£0 -£1 -£1 +£1
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£1.7m -£1.9m -£1.9m -£1.9m -£2.0m -£2.0m -£2.0m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% -£1 +£0 +£2 -£1 +£11 -£0 +£0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£0 -£6 -£6 +£0 +£11 +£0 -£4
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£0 0 0 +£0 +£0 -£0 -£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% +£0 +£0 +£12 -£0 +£0 +£9 +£0
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£0 0 0 0 +£0 -£0 0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax 0 0 +£0 0 0 +£0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax 0 0 +£0 0 +£0 0 -£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£79,993 -£31,813
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£1.7m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.0m +£2.0m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax -£0 0 +£0 +£0 0 0 -£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£1 -£0 +£1 +£0 +£1 -£1 +£2

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 2 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 5 0 0 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 6 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.0%
2026-27 0.0% 0.0%
2027-28 0.0% 0.0%
2028-29 0.0% 0.0%
2029-30 0.0% 0.0%
2030-31 0.0% 0.0%
2031-32 0.0% 0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 42c01db91f uk 2.141.1 (files ac9f2d6e0b13), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 92d4027fa1c9 0d0426ee9e38 917.21s
head #2474 merged into main 62c539b646 uk 2.141.2 (files 134559e2a9e1), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 e4bd31f5fe63 0d0426ee9e38 919.75s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.28bn £318.97bn £336.44bn £351.54bn £367.03bn £385.10bn £403.41bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.51bn £62.45bn £64.90bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £175.57bn £181.08bn £188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.49bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.50bn £127.12bn £128.28bn £130.21bn £134.05bn £138.02bn £142.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.02bn £7.09bn £7.21bn £7.34bn £7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.81bn £83.12bn £84.93bn £86.69bn £87.61bn £89.03bn £90.37bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.92bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,490k 1,489k 1,477k 1,455k 1,457k 1,454k 1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,008k 6,593k 6,509k 6,491k 6,377k 6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,419k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,244k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,185k 3,210k 3,223k 3,244k 3,262k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.20bn £976.15bn £1,009.30bn £1,044.87bn £1,081.65bn £1,122.49bn
Government spending £536.56bn † £550.90bn † £557.23bn † £564.30bn † £572.85bn † £582.10bn † £591.26bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.82bn † £388.30bn † £418.92bn † £445.00bn † £472.03bn † £499.55bn † £531.23bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.51bn £942.33bn £979.28bn £1,012.43bn £1,048.00bn £1,084.78bn £1,125.62bn
household_tax £496.16bn £522.62bn £548.42bn £570.55bn £592.61bn £616.99bn £643.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.34bn £514.50bn £540.07bn £561.51bn £583.33bn £607.44bn £633.79bn
gov_spending £536.56bn † £550.90bn † £557.23bn † £564.30bn † £572.85bn † £582.10bn † £591.26bn †
household_benefits £536.56bn † £550.90bn † £557.23bn † £564.30bn † £572.85bn † £582.10bn † £591.26bn †
gov_balance £365.95bn † £391.43bn † £422.05bn † £448.13bn † £475.16bn † £502.68bn † £534.36bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,887.41bn £1,945.59bn £2,017.37bn
Household net income £1,658.19bn † £1,706.77bn † £1,738.61bn † £1,772.79bn † £1,809.04bn † £1,850.76bn † £1,902.50bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.75bn £1,513.55bn £1,545.80bn £1,578.85bn £1,613.03bn £1,652.16bn £1,702.60bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 14.9% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 20.9% 20.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.5% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 31.8% 30.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.2% 31.6% 31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.4% 19.2% 20.0% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.6% 12.3% 12.0% 12.2% 12.3% 12.3% 12.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.2% 23.2% 23.3% 23.4% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9% 15.1% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.9% 14.1% 14.3% 14.2% 14.2% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.6% 21.5% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 32.6% 31.3% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.3% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.6% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.4% 12.8% 12.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.3% 12.4%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,050k 10,425k 10,846k 10,946k 11,077k 11,208k 11,218k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,560k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,862k 5,735k 6,068k 6,164k 6,235k 6,313k 6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,627k 1,549k 1,517k 1,529k 1,544k 1,561k 1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,541k 14,217k 14,696k 14,937k 15,157k 15,396k 15,530k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,767k 4,515k 4,643k 4,699k 4,756k 4,835k 4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,277k 8,253k 8,666k 8,844k 8,994k 9,142k 9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,497k 1,449k 1,386k 1,394k 1,408k 1,419k 1,431k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,760k 11,456k 11,504k 11,625k 11,706k 11,868k 11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,538k 3,514k 3,525k 3,546k 3,582k 3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,160k 6,365k 6,465k 6,537k 6,651k 6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,766k 1,758k 1,625k 1,634k 1,623k 1,634k 1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,916k 14,721k 14,905k 15,007k 15,225k 15,288k 15,517k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,889k 4,715k 4,697k 4,719k 4,791k 4,799k 4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,435k 8,497k 8,758k 8,878k 9,019k 9,074k 9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,591k 1,508k 1,451k 1,410k 1,415k 1,415k 1,429k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3065 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,707 † £17,997 † £17,941 † £17,992 † £18,326 † £18,522 † £18,686 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,363 † £29,041 † £28,672 † £29,013 † £29,374 † £29,780 † £30,330 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,608 † £35,902 † £36,508 † £37,009 † £37,264 † £37,950 † £38,657 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,329 † £40,908 † £41,942 † £42,838 † £43,195 † £43,846 † £44,955 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,879 † £46,157 † £46,937 † £47,446 † £48,380 † £49,253 † £50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,926 † £49,316 † £50,267 † £51,051 † £52,160 † £52,926 † £54,242 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,322 † £57,584 † £58,472 † £59,449 † £60,165 † £61,636 † £62,887 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,251 † £70,362 † £71,638 † £72,872 † £74,335 † £75,702 † £77,572 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,674 † £82,008 † £83,246 † £84,448 † £86,136 † £87,748 † £89,957 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,666 † £120,533 † £122,448 † £124,609 † £126,968 † £129,679 † £132,877 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.71bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.35bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.20bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.96bn £-22.33bn £-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.46bn £12.80bn £13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.43bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-8.92bn £-9.13bn £-9.03bn £-9.06bn £-9.26bn £-9.51bn £-9.78bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.87bn £7.07bn £7.29bn £7.53bn £7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.54bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.27bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.77bn £13.12bn £13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.38bn £3.43bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £12.25bn £12.71bn £12.83bn £13.02bn £13.41bn £13.80bn £14.21bn

@juaristi22

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The published child retains both the minimum-age and earnings/penny gates on repaired #2473, with seven combined natural-input regression cases. It remains stacked on fix-2345-csp-earnings-limit; after #2473 actually merges, this child still needs retargeting to main and combined cash checks before merging. The shared CA pension-share lever can also move CSP, so that follow-up and all Axiom-needed qualifications remain open. Current-head hosted checks are green.

Base automatically changed from fix-2345-csp-earnings-limit to main October 22, 2026 02:55
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 7cf7194 Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix-1793-benefit-minimum-ages branch October 22, 2026 04:34
@MaxGhenis

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Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on Max's explicit instruction to merge the team's ready PRs before the Budget (21 October, about 23:00Z: "go ahead and merge them. none of us has time to wait on each other"). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head 315e374446626427b66d2b2082c5fe3025fad94c.

  • Gates at this head: every check passes; GitHub reports MERGEABLE; not a draft; juaristi22, review decision . The merge queue re-tests against current main.
  • Review: no independent agent review was run at this head before merging, on Max's instruction. Any finding after merge goes to a follow-up PR.
  • Budget: the Budget runs on a locked pe-uk release (microcosm#1333). This change reaches Budget-day numbers only if the lock moves to a release that contains it.

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Reported/category benefit inputs bypass statutory minimum-age eligibility (Carer's Allowance, Carer Support Payment, child DLA mobility)

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