Fix DfE childcare funding rates for 2025 and 2026

changelog.d/2183.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+- Updated England childcare entitlement valuations to the published 2025–26 and 2026–27 national-average funding rates.

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dfe/childcare_funding_rate.yaml

@@ -1,4 +1,7 @@
-description: The Department for Education converts childcare hours into expenses for childcare entitlement at these rates.
+description: >-
+  National-average English local-authority hourly funding used to value
+  childcare entitlements. These combined age-group averages are a model
+  valuation proxy, not individual provider fees or programme-specific rates.
 metadata:
   type: single_amount
   threshold_unit: year
@@ -8,17 +11,30 @@ metadata:
   reference:
     - title: House of Commons Library | Early years funding in England
       href: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8052/
+    - title: DfE 2025 to 2026 early years national funding formulae technical note, Table 6 (historical, withdrawn)
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/early-years-funding-2025-to-2026/2025-to-2026-early-years-national-funding-formulae-technical-note#table-6-2025-to-2026-national-average-of-local-authority-hourly-funding-rates
+    - title: DfE 2026 to 2027 early years national funding formulae technical note, Table 6
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/early-years-funding-2026-to-2027/2026-to-2027-early-years-national-funding-formulae-technical-note#table-6-2026-to-2027-national-average-of-local-authority-hourly-funding-rates
 
+# Funding years run April to March. The existing annual model samples
+# 30 April; it retains its separate annual approximation of the hours rollout.
+# Later years continue to use the existing CPI projection, not official rates.
 brackets:
   - threshold:
       2015-01-01: 0
     amount:
       2024-04-01: 11.22
+      2025-04-01: 11.54
+      2026-04-01: 12.04
   - threshold:
       2015-01-01: 2
     amount:
       2024-04-01: 8.28
+      2025-04-01: 8.53
+      2026-04-01: 8.90
   - threshold:
       2015-01-01: 3
     amount:
-      2024-04-01: 5.88
+      2024-04-01: 5.88
+      2025-04-01: 6.12
+      2026-04-01: 6.61

policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement.yaml

@@ -3,8 +3,8 @@
 # counts those hours towards the 30. Every child here is in England (the default)
 # and claims the universal entitlement (the default), so a 3- or 4-year-old's
 # universal 570 hours a year come off the 1,140 the parameter gives. Rates per
-# hour: 2025 £8.486995 (age 2) and £6.026996 (3-4); 2026 £8.775556 (age 2) and
-# £6.231916 (3-4).
+# hour: 2025 £8.53 (age 2) and £6.12 (3-4); 2026 £8.90 (age 2) and
+# £6.61 (3-4).
 - name: 3-year-old gets the 15 working parent hours above the universal 15
   period: 2025
   absolute_error_margin: 0.05
@@ -17,9 +17,9 @@
         members: [child1]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # (1,140 - 570) x 6.026996
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3435.39
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3435.39
+    # (1,140 - 570) x 6.12
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3488.40
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3488.40
 
 - name: Eligible for 15 hours - 2 year old (evaluated at Jan 1, 2025 before Sept expansion)
   period: 2025
@@ -33,8 +33,8 @@
         members: [child1]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 15 x 38 x 8.486995; no targeted hours, so nothing comes off.
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 4837.59
+    # 15 x 38 x 8.53; no targeted hours, so nothing comes off.
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 4862.10
 
 - name: Not eligible (one condition not met)
   period: 2025
@@ -64,8 +64,8 @@
         members: [child1, child2]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 570 x 8.486995 + (1,140 - 570) x 6.026996
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 8272.97
+    # 570 x 8.53 + (1,140 - 570) x 6.12
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 8350.50
 
 - name: Not eligible - Family with multiple children but conditions not met
   period: 2025
@@ -100,8 +100,8 @@
         family_type: COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 570 x 8.486995 + 2 x (1,140 - 570) x 6.026996
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 11708.36
+    # 570 x 8.53 + 2 x (1,140 - 570) x 6.12
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 11838.90
 
 - name: No expenses for zero hours
   period: 2025
@@ -130,10 +130,10 @@
         members: [child1]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # (20 x 38 - 570) x 6.026996: 190 working parent hours on top of the
+    # (20 x 38 - 570) x 6.12: 190 working parent hours on top of the
     # universal 570.
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 1145.13
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3435.39
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 1162.80
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3488.40
 
 - name: Child using fewer hours than maximum entitlement - multiple children
   period: 2025
@@ -151,8 +151,8 @@
         members: [child1, child2]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 10 x 38 x 8.486995 + max(0, 15 x 38 - 570) x 6.026996
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3225.06
+    # 10 x 38 x 8.53 + max(0, 15 x 38 - 570) x 6.12
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3241.40
 
 - name: Benefit unit maximum hours cap applied
   period: 2025
@@ -171,8 +171,8 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage: 40
   output:
-    # The cap applies to each child: 2 x (1,140 - 570) x 6.026996
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 6870.78
+    # The cap applies to each child: 2 x (1,140 - 570) x 6.12
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 6976.80
 
 - name: A family cap below the universal hours leaves the universal hours whole
   period: 2025
@@ -191,7 +191,7 @@
     # 10 x 38 = 380 hours is under the universal 570, so no working parent
     # hours, and the universal 570 stay.
     extended_childcare_entitlement: 0
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3435.39
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3488.40
 
 - name: A family cap above 15 adds the hours between 15 and the cap
   period: 2025
@@ -207,8 +207,8 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage: 18
   output:
-    # (18 x 38 - 570) x 6.026996
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 687.08
+    # (18 x 38 - 570) x 6.12
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 697.68
 
 - name: Benefit unit without maximum hours cap applied with 3 years old child
   period: 2025
@@ -226,7 +226,7 @@
   output:
     # The child uses 15 hours, all of them universal.
     extended_childcare_entitlement: 0
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3435.39
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3488.40
 
 - name: Eligible for 30 hours - 2 year old after September 2025 expansion
   period: 2026
@@ -240,8 +240,8 @@
         members: [child1]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 30 x 38 x 8.775556; no targeted hours.
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 10004.13
+    # 30 x 38 x 8.90; no targeted hours.
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 10146.00
 
 - name: Eligible for 30 hours - Family with multiple 2-year-olds after expansion
   period: 2026
@@ -257,8 +257,8 @@
         members: [child1, child2]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 1,140 x 8.775556 + (1,140 - 570) x 6.231916
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 13556.33
+    # 1,140 x 8.90 + (1,140 - 570) x 6.61
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 13913.70
 
 # SI 2022/1134 reg 13(2)(b): a child looked after by a local authority is not a
 # qualifying child, so only the other three-year-old's working parent hours
@@ -279,5 +279,5 @@
         members: [child1, child2]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3435.39
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: [3435.39, 3435.39]
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3488.40
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: [3488.40, 3488.40]

policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/extended_childcare_entitlement/extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child.yaml

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 # Each child's working parent hours are the part of its funded hours above the
 # universal (3-4) or targeted (2) hours: Childcare Act 2016 s.1(6)(a), and DfE's
 # statutory guidance (April 2026) para A1.11 for a 2-year-old eligible for both.
-# Rates per hour: 2025 £8.486995 (age 2); 2026 £11.891514 (under 2),
-# £8.775556 (age 2) and £6.231916 (3-4).
+# Rates per hour: 2025 £8.53 (age 2); 2026 £12.04 (under 2),
+# £8.90 (age 2) and £6.61 (3-4).
 - name: A 2-year-old eligible for both gets 15 targeted plus 15 working parent hours
   period: 2026
   absolute_error_margin: 0.05
@@ -16,10 +16,10 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 570 x 8.775556 each
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 5002.07
-    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 5002.07
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 5002.07
+    # 570 x 8.90 each
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 5073.00
+    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 5073.00
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 5073.00
 
 - name: Before September 2025 a 2-year-old eligible for both gets the targeted 15 hours
   period: 2025
@@ -35,8 +35,8 @@
         targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
     # The working parent total (15 hours at 1 January 2025) is no more than
-    # the targeted 570 hours: 570 x 8.486995 targeted, nothing on top.
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 4837.59
+    # the targeted 570 hours: 570 x 8.53 targeted, nothing on top.
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 4862.10
     extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 0
 
 - name: A 1-year-old has no universal or targeted hours to come off
@@ -51,8 +51,8 @@
         members: [child]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # 30 x 38 x 11.891514
-    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 13556.33
+    # 30 x 38 x 12.04
+    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 13725.60
 
 - name: Working parent participation funds universal first even with false standalone take-up
   period: 2026
@@ -67,10 +67,10 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         would_claim_universal_childcare: false
   output:
-    # 15 x 38 x 6.231916 in each programme, preserving all 30 funded hours.
+    # 15 x 38 x 6.61 in each programme, preserving all 30 funded hours.
     universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3552.19
-    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 3552.19
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 3767.70
+    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 3767.70
     is_child_receiving_universal_childcare: true
     is_child_receiving_extended_childcare: true
 
@@ -88,8 +88,8 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         would_claim_universal_childcare: false
   output:
-    # 10 x 38 x 6.231916; the unpaid standalone floor is not added.
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 2368.13
+    # 10 x 38 x 6.61; the unpaid standalone floor is not added.
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 2511.80
     extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 0
     is_child_receiving_universal_childcare: true
     is_child_receiving_extended_childcare: false
@@ -108,7 +108,7 @@
         maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage: 10
         would_claim_universal_childcare: false
   output:
-    universal_childcare_entitlement: 2368.13
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: 2511.80
     extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 0
 
 - name: Legal universal eligibility alone does not create take-up
@@ -142,9 +142,9 @@
         would_claim_targeted_childcare: false
   output:
     targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
-    # 15 x 38 x 8.775556 in each programme (DfE A1.11).
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 5002.07
-    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 5002.07
+    # 15 x 38 x 8.90 in each programme (DfE A1.11).
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 5073.00
+    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 5073.00
     is_child_receiving_targeted_childcare: true
     is_child_receiving_extended_childcare: true
 
@@ -163,8 +163,8 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         would_claim_targeted_childcare: false
   output:
-    # 10 x 38 x 8.775556, with no unfunded floor subtracted.
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 3334.71
+    # 10 x 38 x 8.90, with no unfunded floor subtracted.
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 3382.00
     extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 0
     is_child_receiving_targeted_childcare: true
     is_child_receiving_extended_childcare: false
@@ -183,7 +183,7 @@
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
         would_claim_targeted_childcare: false
   output:
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 4837.59
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 4862.10
     extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 0
 
 - name: Legal targeted eligibility alone does not create take-up
@@ -231,9 +231,9 @@
         members: [parent, child]
         extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
   output:
-    # (1,140 - 570) x 6.231916 for the child only
-    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: [0, 3552.19]
-    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3552.19
+    # (1,140 - 570) x 6.61 for the child only
+    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: [0, 3767.70]
+    extended_childcare_entitlement: 3767.70
 
 # The same overlap through the targeted eligibility formula itself: Income
 # Support is a qualifying benefit, and eligibility for the working parent
@@ -256,9 +256,9 @@
         country: ENGLAND
   output:
     targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
-    # 570 x 8.775556 each
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 5002.07
-    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 5002.07
+    # 570 x 8.90 each
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 5073.00
+    extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 5073.00
     is_child_receiving_targeted_childcare: true
     is_child_receiving_extended_childcare: true
 
@@ -280,8 +280,8 @@
         country: ENGLAND
   output:
     targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible: true
-    # 570 x 8.486995 targeted; the 15-hour working parent total adds nothing.
-    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 4837.59
+    # 570 x 8.53 targeted; the 15-hour working parent total adds nothing.
+    targeted_childcare_entitlement: 4862.10
     extended_childcare_entitlement_per_child: 0
     is_child_receiving_targeted_childcare: true
     is_child_receiving_extended_childcare: false

policyengine_uk/tests/policy/integration/entitledto_scenarios.yaml

@@ -74,7 +74,10 @@
     universal_credit: 12_490.86
     housing_benefit: 0
     child_benefit: 2_251.60
-    household_net_income: 36_114.90
+    # The 3yo's 570 universal hours at the 2025 funding rate of £6.12
+    # are valued at £3,488.40, up £53.01 from £3,435.39.
+    universal_childcare_entitlement: [0, 0, 0, 3_488.40]
+    household_net_income: 36_167.91
 
 - name: "EntitledTo #3 - pensioner couple, low state pension, qualifies for Pension Credit"
   period: 2025