[juaristi22]

Fixes #2454
Fixes #2173

Apply the modeled pension salary-sacrifice cap only to Class 1 NI earnings. Ordinary employment income and member pension payments continue to represent actual payments. salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess measures the NI-only excess; salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income remains a supplied actual cash/member-payment input, with default zero and no computed excess formula.

This PR was originally stacked on #2464 at 4d4787e654e7e3bc0a48500fb2c8beb8c78ea306. #2464 merged as 73d8889aae11099bd00299eace658a1916b10480. The PR now targets main; integration commit 893dcff6bb5babdca2794aea71fdcbbbfc27163d combines the previous PR head with captured main b9b567144d45add85bc58ad7908dddd12e0be14d. Its 22 feature-file blobs and modes remain unchanged, and all other files match that captured main. It retains the parent's common relevant-earnings helper, coherent pension-relief/annual-allowance callers and all 12 statutory-pay fixtures, including supplied-ANI, net-pay/RAS, trading-loss, age and direct-input behavior. The two private-test names/docstrings now describe NI excess accurately; their executable assertions, fixtures and numbers are unchanged.

The nine return-input policy cases comprise seven retained cases and two additions: a natural #2173 childcare-income regression and a separately qualified supplied-ANI/SSP/actual-return control. In the natural 2029 case, £97,000 pay before the existing labour-supply response and £10,000 employer sacrifice give ordinary pay/ANI £96,844.80, NI-only excess £8,000 and NI earnings £104,844.80. Both childcare income tests remain satisfied without forcing intermediate eligibility or income variables. This checks the income conditions, not complete childcare awards.

The 2026 Act and Treasury guidance establish the NI-only cap; the employer-contribution exemption remains under ITEPA 2003 s308.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/pensions/salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income.yaml::NI-only sacrifice excess preserves both childcare income tests, 2173

Historical validation at 3531d110b5a821b32f10087e02720af1757cdf81:

• Full YAML suite: 3,589 passed.
• One full native Python run with CI's sysmon coverage settings: 6,542 passed, 95 skipped, one expected failure; all 128 previously unfinished focused nodes ran once and passed. Python 3.13.14 / locked Core 3.33.2.
• The unchanged source-mode outcome auditor rejects the glibc-only skip on Darwin. A separate RUN-only allowlist containing only that exact node/reason accepts the same unchanged 6,638 outcomes. The original audit failure is retained; the glibc assertion did not execute and no Linux pass is claimed.
• Native formatting/Ruff, diff and trusted Fix-evidence checks passed. Captured-C independent CODE, POLICY and regulatory review is complete with no findings or material gaps; final local Fix verification is CLEAN (5/5 planned items). Those historical local results do not certify the current combined tree or merge readiness. Hosted checks were absent on the stacked head because the workflow filtered to base main. Fresh required and applicable hosted checks, including documentation and aggregate-impact checks, remain necessary for the integrated head.

Current integration validation at 893dcff6bb5babdca2794aea71fdcbbbfc27163d qualifies 116 unique Python cases: 46 from the independent CODE run and 70 from two separately recorded targeted runs of 47 and 23 cases. Named call outcomes and JUnit results cover the exact collected set with no failed or skipped cases. The original six-file command timed out at 600 seconds and is retained as an incomplete run; it is not counted as a pass. The complete pensions and National Insurance YAML directories passed 271 cases. Formatting, lint, Towncrier, diff and trusted actual-base Fix-evidence checks passed on the unchanged captured source/runtime. These local results do not replace required and applicable hosted CI on the combined head.

Private population benchmarks were not executed. Annual-age, cash-proxy and future payroll-interval limitations remain. Parent #2464 has merged; its issue #2371 remains partial and SPP/#2368 remains open. The current-main integration preserves the previously reviewed feature files and requires fresh combined-head hosted CI. It does not certify separate consumer branches or their landing.

Own #2490 and external #2363 require separate NI-excess-input/curve landing coordination; external #2386 requires separate pension-doc reconciliation. This PR does not repair those branches or certify their combined compatibility. Existing #2493/#2452 and Axiom follow-ups remain.

Landing coordination

Landing and consumer plan: #2464, then #2462, then #2363. #2464 has merged and #2462 now targets main with the captured current-main integration described above. Required hosted CI and aggregate-impact checks on the combined head remain outstanding before #2462 merges. #2363 then needs to read salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess for its NI-excess measures while preserving salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income as an actual-pay/member-payment input. Vahid's existing coordination handoff records that consumer change and proposed order. The draft author's acceptance and migration remain outstanding; this handoff does not certify the combined tree.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#477 queued

Owned parity handoff: @juaristi22. The signed encoder is blocked because its separately billed run has not been approved. The underlying encoding/parity follow-up remains needed and OPEN; this queued tracking reference does not certify encoding or parity.

[juaristi22]

Rebased onto main 62a0117f and reconciled the merged pension rules with the NI-only cap. The annual-allowance helpers now preserve actual pay/member-payment inputs while retaining the age, relief and trading-loss rules. The inherited YAML case keeps its inputs and five annual-allowance expectations; its two old synthetic-pay expectations now match the NI-only behavior.

All 282 distinct targeted cases passed across the qualified bounded runs. Independent policy/source and code/test reviews completed with no findings or material gaps; the code reviewer passed 144 committed-snapshot tests. Formatting, lint, diff and Fix-evidence checks passed. The existing review request and axiom: needed follow-up remain in place.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Fine once the linked issue and the #2363 clash are sorted. The law change looks right to me.

@juaristi22, the core change matches the statute. The NICs (Employer Pensions Contributions) Act 2026 s.1 inserts SSCBA 1992 s.4(6A), which treats sacrifice above the cap as earnings for Part 1 (contributions) only. ITEPA 2003 s.308 still exempts the employer contribution from income tax. So the excess belongs in ni_class_1_income and nowhere else, which is what this PR does. The salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee and _employer measures are not added to any NI total, so the excess is not charged twice.

1. should: link #2173 as well (changelog.d/2454.fixed.md, PR body). #2173 reports the same defect from the adjusted net income side: sacrifice above £2,000 raised ANI from 2029-30 and switched off 30 hours and Tax-Free Childcare. I ran its example on this head (£97,000 pay after a £10,000 sacrifice, one two-year-old). In 2029 ANI is now £96,844.80 (only the broad-base haircut), ni_class_1_income is £104,844.80, and both childcare income tests pass. Adding "Fixes #2173" would close it with this PR.

2. should: this changes the meaning of an input that open #2363 relies on. #2363 rebuilds the two NI measures as Class 1 on earnings less salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income. After this PR that variable defaults to zero, so #2363's measures would come out as zero unless it is moved onto salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess. #2490 also edits both measure files. The PR body says the #2363 limitations remain, but the two PRs need a merge order and a follow-up edit on whichever lands second.

3. should: keep the earnings base in step with #2464 (policyengine_uk/utils/pensions.py:40). annual_allowance_net_income takes relevant earnings as employment_income plus positive self-employment income. #2464 adds employment_benefits (SSP, SMP and so on) to the same base in pension_contributions_relief. If both merge as they stand, the AA net-pay ordering and the relief itself would use different earnings for someone on statutory pay. Whichever lands second should align the helper.

4. nit: the microsimulation test module still describes the old method (policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/test_salary_sacrifice_cap_reform.py:7 "matching blog", :11 "redirected excess"). test_excess_redirected_to_pension (:151) and test_full_excess_redirected (:214) now test NIC-only excess, so the names mislead. The blog method no longer matches the model: it redirected the excess into member contributions.

5. nit: salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income keeps a name that no longer says what it is. It is now an optional input for an actual return to pay. That is fine for compatibility. A line in the docstring saying the model never computes it would help readers who know the old behaviour.

No overlap with #1820, #1855, #1864, #2184, #2187, #2189, #2193, #2382, #2386 or #2433.

What I checked

• Read #2454 and #2173, the full PR body and the full diff, against main 62a0117f. The head contains main.
• Read the NICs (Employer Pensions Contributions) Act 2026 s.1 on legislation.gov.uk. Checked the ITEPA 2003 s.308 reference.
• Followed every reader of salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income, ni_class_1_income and the two NI measures, to check for double counting.
• Hand-checked the AA YAML case. Pay of £175,000 less a 0.16% haircut gives £174,720. Threshold income is £174,720 + £30,000 = £204,720. Adjusted income is £174,720 + £130,000 = £304,720. The tapered allowance is £60,000 − £44,720/2 = £37,640, and the charge is (£130,000 − £37,640) × 45% = £41,562. All match.
• policyengine-core test on tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/national_insurance and .../pensions: 257 passed.
• pytest on test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py and test_salary_sacrifice_needs_pay_properties.py: 31 passed.
• Restored main's salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income.py and ni_class_1_income.py. The reproducer test_nic_cap_preserves_ordinary_tax_pay_member_payments_and_allowances then fails for 2029 and 2030, and 3 cases in salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income.yaml fail.
• ruff check and ruff format --check on the 15 changed Python files: clean.
• CI on this head is green, including Fix evidence. The changelog type is fixed, and the Reproducer: and axiom: lines are present.
• Not checked: the microsimulation revenue test (about £3.3bn). It needs private data, and I couldn't confirm that CI runs it.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Addressed review 5563241802 on the stacked candidate 3531d110b5a821b32f10087e02720af1757cdf81:

• Added the natural Salary sacrifice above the April 2029 NI cap raises adjusted net income, but HMRC says the cap leaves ANI unchanged #2173 ANI/both-childcare-income regression and changelog link; retained the seven existing return-input policy cases and added a separate supplied-ANI/SSP/actual-return control.
• Stacked on Include SSP and SMP in pension-relief earnings #2464's common earnings helper and all three pension callers, preserving its 12 statutory-pay fixtures. Include SSP and SMP in pension-relief earnings #2464 lands first; Pension contribution relief is capped at wages and profit and leaves out statutory pay #2371 remains partial and SPP/Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay #2368 stays open.
• Renamed the two private-test functions/docstrings without changing their executable assertions or benchmarks. Documented the legacy return input as supplied actual pay/member payment, default zero, never computed NI excess.
• Kept Store marginal National Insurance schedules as scales #2490/Make the salary sacrifice NI measures equal the change in Class 1 liability, and correct mis-declared units #2363 curve/input and Add twenty planning and validation docs pages #2386 documentation landing work separate, with current-main integration required after parent merge.

Local validation: 3,589 YAML passes; one full native Python run gives 6,542 passes, 95 skips and one expected failure. The original source audit rejects Darwin's glibc-only skip; a separate exact one-node local exception accepts the unchanged outcomes. No Linux/glibc assertion or private benchmark pass is claimed. Hosted new-head CI and human review remain separate; the stack is not merge-ready while its parent is open.

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 round 2, at 3531d110b. This is now stacked on #2464 (base fix-2371-statutory-pay-pension-relief), so I reviewed this PR's own diff against #2464's head 4d4787e65.

Verdict: items 1 and 3 to 5 are fixed. Item 2 (#2363) is still open, and nothing has run CI on this head, so I'm not approving yet. The law change was already right in round 1 and hasn't moved.

Round-1 points

1. should: link #2173: fixed. The body has "Fixes #2173" and the changelog mentions it. The new case NI-only sacrifice excess preserves both childcare income tests, 2173 in salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income.yaml is the issue's own household. In 2029, ANI is £96,844.80, NI earnings £104,844.80, and both childcare income tests pass.
2. should: #2363 relies on salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income: not fixed. The body now says the two need landing coordination, but there is no merge order or plan. git merge-tree against #2363's head 385c547b5 still conflicts in both salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_*.py files and in salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer.yaml. If #2363 rebases onto this as it stands, its measures will come out as zero. #2363 is Max's draft, so I'd land this first and leave a comment on #2363 saying it needs to read salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess. Once that comment is up and the order is in this PR's body, I'll treat this point as closed.
3. should: same earnings base as #2464: fixed. annual_allowance_net_income now uses #2464's relevant_uk_earnings helper, so it includes employment_benefits. The supplied-ANI case with SSP and an actual return covers this.
4. nit: microsimulation test names and docstring: fixed. These are now test_excess_included_in_ni_earnings and test_full_excess_included_in_ni_earnings, and the module docstring describes the NI-only method.
5. nit: salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income docstring: fixed. It now says this is an optional supplied input that the model never computes.

New findings

6. should: no CI on this head. gh pr checks reports no checks, because the workflows don't run for a PR whose base isn't main. Once #2464 merges, please retarget this to main so that CI and the aggregate-impact report run on the combined change before merge.

What I checked

• Read the three commits and both replies, and the diff against 4d4787e65.
• Fresh worktree and uv venv at the head. policyengine-core test on tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/pensions and .../national_insurance: 271 passed. pytest on test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py and test_salary_sacrifice_needs_pay_properties.py: 31 passed. ruff check and ruff format --check on the 15 changed Python files: clean.
• git merge-tree against current main (clean), #2490 (clean) and #2363 (conflicts, as above).
• Not checked: the private-data revenue test (about £3.3bn), and hosted CI, which hasn't run.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Documented the landing order #2464 → #2462 → #2363 and linked your existing #2363 coordination handoff, so no duplicate comment is needed. That handoff names salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess for NI-only measures. The verified #2462 input contract preserves the supplied actual-return input. Retargeting to main and hosted CI/aggregate checks remain pending until #2464 actually merges; #2363's author acceptance and migration remain outstanding. Axiom and the other recorded dependencies remain open.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base b9b567144d against head f9fc0bd937, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 59 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Household market income	2029-30	£1,887.41bn	£1,872.88bn	-£14.54bn
Household market income	2031-32	£2,017.37bn	£2,001.98bn	-£15.39bn
Household market income	2030-31	£1,945.59bn	£1,930.99bn	-£14.60bn
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	1,451k	1,406k	-44.9k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£48,192	£47,930	-£263
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£47,705	£47,447	-£257
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£54,501	£54,240	-£261
Universal Credit	2031-32	£90.81bn	£90.33bn	-£474.1m
Universal Credit	2030-31	£89.46bn	£89.00bn	-£462.7m
Universal Credit	2029-30	£88.03bn	£87.58bn	-£453.5m
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£42,631	£42,824	+£193
Universal Credit	2028-29	£87.10bn	£86.65bn	-£442.6m
Universal Credit	2027-28	£85.33bn	£84.89bn	-£432.2m
Universal Credit	2026-27	£83.51bn	£83.09bn	-£420.9m
Universal Credit	2025-26	£79.18bn	£78.78bn	-£404.2m
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	12.7%	12.3%	-0.39pp
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£44,701	£44,874	+£173
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£49,917	£50,076	+£159
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	23.7%	23.4%	-0.26pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2031-32	6,738k	6,651k	-86.7k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£50,386	£50,259	-£126
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2031-32	12,060k	11,914k	-146.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2029-30	6,617k	6,537k	-80.0k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£49,438	£49,323	-£115
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,680k	1,661k	-19.5k
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£46,052	£46,154	+£102
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	3,642k	3,602k	-40.2k
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£40,991	£40,904	-£87
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2031-32	16.9%	16.7%	-0.21pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2030-31	1,651k	1,634k	-17.0k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£53,033	£52,925	-£108
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2031-32	15.2%	15.0%	-0.20pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2029-30	11,816k	11,706k	-110.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2029-30	15.1%	14.9%	-0.18pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2029-30	1,637k	1,623k	-13.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	14.6%	14.4%	-0.17pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2029-30	16.7%	16.6%	-0.16pp
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£56,419	£56,335	-£85
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2030-31	14.4%	14.2%	-0.15pp
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£35,848	£35,900	+£53

19 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	0	0	0	0	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	0	0	0	0	-£19	-£12	+£1
National Insurance (employer)	0	0	0	0	-£9	-£46	-£31
Capital gains tax	0	0	0	0	+£0	+£0	+£0

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	-£404.2m	-£420.9m	-£432.2m	-£442.6m	-£453.5m	-£462.7m	-£474.1m
Council Tax Reduction	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	0	+£3,273	+£3,288	+£4,190
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	-98	-336	-337	-242	-243	-244	-245
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	0	0	0	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m
Government spending	-£404.1m †	-£420.8m †	-£432.1m †	-£442.6m †	-£453.5m †	-£462.7m †	-£474.0m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£404.1m †	+£420.8m †	+£432.1m †	+£442.6m †	+£453.2m †	+£462.5m †	+£473.8m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	0	0	0	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m
household_tax	0	0	0	0	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	0	0	0	0	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m
gov_spending	-£404.1m †	-£420.8m †	-£432.1m †	-£442.6m †	-£453.5m †	-£462.7m †	-£474.0m †
household_benefits	-£404.1m †	-£420.8m †	-£432.1m †	-£442.6m †	-£453.5m †	-£462.7m †	-£474.0m †
gov_balance	+£404.1m †	+£420.8m †	+£432.1m †	+£442.6m †	+£453.2m †	+£462.5m †	+£473.8m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	0	0	0	0	-£14.54bn	-£14.60bn	-£15.39bn
Household net income	-£404.1m †	-£420.8m †	-£432.1m †	-£442.6m †	-£453.2m †	-£462.5m †	-£473.8m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£404.1m	-£420.8m	-£432.1m	-£442.6m	-£453.2m	-£462.5m	-£473.8m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+0.01pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.06pp	0	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.16pp	-0.05pp	-0.21pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.14pp	0	-0.03pp	-0.01pp	-0.11pp	-0.04pp	-0.26pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.05pp	0	-0.03pp	-0.02pp	-0.18pp	-0.04pp	-0.20pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	0	-0.04pp	-0.06pp	-0.12pp	-0.15pp	-0.17pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	-0.07pp	+0.00pp	-0.09pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	-0.01pp	+0.01pp	-0.10pp	-0.02pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	-0.11pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	0	-0.39pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	0	+1.5k	+1.5k	+1.5k	+1.5k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+4.6k	+3.7k	+3.7k	+5.3k	+5.3k	+5.3k	+5.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	+2.3k	+1.9k	+1.9k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+2.3k	+1.9k	+1.9k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-43.3k	0	-22.1k	-18.4k	-110.2k	-38.3k	-146.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-21.4k	0	-4.1k	-2.3k	-16.3k	-5.6k	-40.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-20.5k	0	-13.7k	-9.0k	-80.0k	-15.8k	-86.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-1.5k	0	-4.3k	-7.1k	-13.9k	-17.0k	-19.5k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-3.3k	+2.2k	+3.7k	-52.1k	+2.4k	-64.1k	-8.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	+2.9k	+1.6k	+1.9k	-1.2k	+1.7k	-15.7k	-3.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-5.4k	+790	+1.9k	-6.0k	+496	-48.6k	-4.2k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-850	-151	0	-44.9k	+201	+246	-1.4k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.04 †	+£0.04 †	+£0.04 †	0 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.80 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.33 †	-£0.34 †	-£0.34 †	-£0.35 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£14 †	+£53 †	-£2.67 †	-£6.45 †	-£14 †	+£39 †	-£20 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£14 †	-£87 †	+£14 †	+£193 †	-£19 †	-£12 †	-£7.95 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£173 †	+£102 †	+£39 †	-£257 †	+£11 †	-£46 †	+£159 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£263 †	-£115 †	-£126 †	-£53 †	-£60 †	-£108 †	-£261 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£85 †	-£19 †	-£47 †	+£58 †	-£36 †	+£38 †	-£13 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£7.71 †	-£102 †	-£24 †	-£99 †	+£4.57 †	-£81 †	-£2.07 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£11 †	-£1.05 †	+£7.15 †	-£15 †	-£1.62 †	-£1.65 †	-£1.69 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£12 †	-£13 †	-£13 †	-£13 †	-£14 †	-£14 †	-£14 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£21,358	+£72,252	+£73,743	+£50,157	+£50,847	+£50,343	+£52,587
Raise higher rate by 1pp	0	+£25,369	+£29,237	+£32,749	+£29,864	+£43,585	+£50,891
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£14,790	-£37,338	-£37,422	-£22,939	-£22,836	-£23,197	-£9,492
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£25,957	-£23,966	-£22,688	-£33	-£17	-£23	+£131
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	+£0.7m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£0.9m	+£0.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£42,725	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£85,486	+£67,062
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£3	-£24	+£5	+£40	-£499	-£379	-£1,082
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	-£0	0	-£0	+£238	-£3,939	-£14,549
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	+£68,539	+£0.3m	+£0.3m	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£99,175	+£71,843
Raise the State Pension by 10%	-£17,969	-£22,263	-£10,503	-£22	+£2	+£2	-£13

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	+£85	+£38	+£54
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	-£11,674	-£9,569	-£2,816
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	-£5	-£19	+£1
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	-£0.7m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£0.9m	-£0.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	0	0	0	0	+£25	+£10	-£27
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	-£2	-£3,774	-£14,686
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	-£68,555	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£99,249	-£71,880

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3	fewer than 10 households change	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£3 (-0.0%)
Decile 4	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)
Decile 5	-£20 (-0.0%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)
Decile 6	-£46 (-0.1%)	-£43 (-0.1%)	-£47 (-0.1%)	-£47 (-0.1%)	-£49 (-0.1%)	-£50 (-0.1%)	-£52 (-0.1%)
Decile 7	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£22 (-0.0%)	-£23 (-0.0%)	-£27 (-0.0%)
Decile 8	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)
Decile 9	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)
Decile 10	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)
all	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	1.0%
2026-27	0.0%	1.0%
2027-28	0.0%	1.0%
2028-29	0.0%	1.0%
2029-30	0.0%	1.0%
2030-31	0.0%	1.0%
2031-32	0.0%	1.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
• maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main b9b567144d	uk 2.139.4 (files eed46a161ef2), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	f76faf9d83f5	0d0426ee9e38	921.87s
head	#2462 merged into main f9fc0bd937	uk 2.140.1 (files 3ba3c7b94ea4), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	4eb152553cbe	f210f83d5be4	931.24s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.11bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.06bn	£7.04bn	£7.11bn	£7.23bn	£7.37bn	£7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.60bn	£8.93bn	£9.20bn	£9.34bn	£9.62bn	£9.88bn	£10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.24bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,253k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,213k	3,226k	3,247k	3,263k	3,282k	3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.39bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£536.61bn †	£550.95bn †	£557.29bn †	£564.36bn †	£572.91bn †	£582.17bn †	£591.33bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.78bn †	£388.26bn †	£418.88bn †	£444.96bn †	£471.97bn †	£499.50bn †	£531.17bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.52bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£536.61bn †	£550.95bn †	£557.29bn †	£564.36bn †	£572.91bn †	£582.17bn †	£591.33bn †
household_benefits	£536.61bn †	£550.95bn †	£557.29bn †	£564.36bn †	£572.91bn †	£582.17bn †	£591.33bn †
gov_balance	£365.91bn †	£391.39bn †	£422.01bn †	£448.09bn †	£475.10bn †	£502.63bn †	£534.30bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,658.22bn †	£1,706.81bn †	£1,738.65bn †	£1,772.83bn †	£1,809.10bn †	£1,850.82bn †	£1,902.56bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.78bn	£1,513.59bn	£1,545.85bn	£1,578.89bn	£1,613.08bn	£1,652.22bn	£1,702.66bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.2%	12.0%	12.2%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.3%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.3%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.5%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.3%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.6%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.3%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.3%	12.2%	12.3%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,078k	11,209k	11,217k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,314k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,543k	1,560k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,540k	14,214k	14,692k	14,933k	15,150k	15,388k	15,522k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,767k	4,515k	4,643k	4,699k	4,756k	4,835k	4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,277k	8,253k	8,666k	8,844k	8,993k	9,141k	9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,496k	1,445k	1,382k	1,390k	1,402k	1,412k	1,424k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,759k	11,456k	11,529k	11,625k	11,706k	11,867k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,515k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,366k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,765k	1,758k	1,648k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,912k	14,719k	14,901k	15,009k	15,218k	15,281k	15,509k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,889k	4,715k	4,697k	4,720k	4,791k	4,799k	4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,435k	8,497k	8,758k	8,884k	9,018k	9,074k	9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,588k	1,506k	1,446k	1,406k	1,408k	1,408k	1,422k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3065	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£18,017 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,364 †	£29,040 †	£28,680 †	£29,001 †	£29,377 †	£29,781 †	£30,332 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,611 †	£35,900 †	£36,502 †	£37,005 †	£37,283 †	£37,961 †	£38,665 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,326 †	£40,904 †	£41,932 †	£42,824 †	£43,176 †	£43,833 †	£44,936 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,874 †	£46,154 †	£46,943 †	£47,447 †	£48,381 †	£49,255 †	£50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,323 †	£50,259 †	£51,047 †	£52,157 †	£52,925 †	£54,240 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,335 †	£57,591 †	£58,487 †	£59,458 †	£60,171 †	£61,648 †	£62,900 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,228 †	£70,340 †	£71,615 †	£72,863 †	£74,332 †	£75,678 †	£77,547 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,674 †	£82,009 †	£83,247 †	£84,449 †	£86,137 †	£87,749 †	£89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,666 †	£120,533 †	£122,448 †	£124,609 †	£126,968 †	£129,679 †	£132,877 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.93bn	£-9.14bn	£-9.04bn	£-9.09bn	£-9.29bn	£-9.54bn	£-9.81bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

[juaristi22]

#2464 has merged, and #2462 now targets main. Integration commit 893dcff6bb5babdca2794aea71fdcbbbfc27163d combines the prior PR head with captured main b9b567144d45add85bc58ad7908dddd12e0be14d, retaining all 22 feature-file blobs and modes and that main's other files.

Validation qualifies 116 unique Python cases: 46 independently recorded cases plus targeted runs of 47 and 23 cases, with named outcomes and JUnit evidence. The original six-file command timed out at 600 seconds and remains recorded as incomplete; it is not counted as a pass. The complete pensions and NI YAML directories passed 271 cases.

Consumer acceptance/migration for #2363, #2490 API/owner/landing gates, #2386 documentation reconciliation, and existing Axiom follow-ups remain open. This does not certify those separate branches or parity.

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 round 3, at 893dcff6b. Since round 2 (3531d110b), #2464 has merged and this PR targets main through the integration merge.

Verdict: both round-2 points are fixed and CI is green. One should is left, on the axiom: line. I missed it in rounds 1 and 2, sorry. I'll approve once it is changed. The law change hasn't moved since round 1.

Round-2 points

2. should: landing order with #2363: fixed. The body now gives #2464, then #2462, then #2363, and links my handoff comment on #2363, which names salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess as the input #2363 should read. Nothing more is needed from this PR. git merge-tree against #2363's head 385c547b5 still conflicts in both salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_*.py files and salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer.yaml, as expected. That work belongs to #2363.
3. should: no CI on the stacked head: fixed. All 16 checks pass on 893dcff6b, including Test / Python 1/4 to 4/4, Test / Result, Test / YAML, Fix evidence, Lint, the docs builds and Aggregate impact. That covers the full Python suite, so the six-file local command that timed out no longer matters.

Round-1 items 1 and 3 to 5 were already fixed in round 2 and are unchanged.

The integration keeps #2464

• 893dcff6b has parents 3531d110b (the round-2 head) and b9b567144 (main after #2464's merge 73d8889aa).
• The PR's own diff in round 2 (4d4787e65..3531d110b) and its diff against b9b567144 cover the same 22 files, so the merge dropped none of them. Each of them has the same blob as at 3531d110b. In each of them, main's blob equals #2464's stacked head 4d4787e65. So main had not changed any of these files after #2464, and taking this PR's side dropped nothing.
• #2464's other files (pension_contributions_relief.py, statutory_pay_pension_relief.yaml, the README) are at main's version. Its two files that this PR also edits (utils/pensions.py, pension_annual_allowance_threshold_income.py) still use the shared relevant_uk_earnings helper and pension_contributions_relief.
• statutory_pay_pension_relief.yaml passes (it is in the pensions run below).

New findings

7. should: PR body: axiom: needed. The template and docs/engineering/skills/github-prs.md keep needed for external contributors who can't do the Axiom work, so that a maintainer can follow up. On a maintainer's PR it leaves the parity step with no owner. Please use one of the standard options. rulespec-uk main has no module for SSCBA 1992 s.4 or the 2026 Act. It has uk/statutes/ukpga/1992/4/ for other sections, and the Class 1 pilot pipelines under uk/statutes/social_security/workers/ don't mention salary sacrifice. I found no open issue there for the cap. So encoded-correct isn't open to you. That leaves <rulespec-uk PR> encoded, or <rulespec-uk issue> queued with the blocker recorded and the pe-parity label, as CONTRIBUTING.md asks. For companion cases, use values from the Act rather than ones the model computes: the £2,000 cap, and a plain case such as a £10,000 sacrifice giving £8,000 of Class 1 earnings. The #2173 household's figures include the model's 0.16% haircut, so they don't fit.
8. nit: policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml:484. The note on salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee still says "The excess sacrifice is added back to employment_income, so Class 1 already charges it." After this PR it is added to ni_class_1_income only. The measure_within classification is still right, so only the note's wording is out of date.

Overlaps

• Current main 47642d1ee: none of the 10 PRs merged since b9b567144 touches the 22 files, and git merge-tree is clean.
• My draft #2505 (employer NI zero rate for under-21s and apprentices): it changes ni_class_1_employer.py, not the salary-sacrifice measure files, and merges cleanly with this PR. On the combined tree the NI YAML directory passes (152) and so do test_ni_class_1_age_properties.py and test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py (30). The actual employer liability handles the excess correctly. For a 19-year-old on £40,000 with a £6,000 sacrifice in 2029, ni_class_1_income includes the £4,000 excess and ni_class_1_employer is £0. The flat-rate salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer measure still reports £600. That measure was already a flat-rate approximation before this PR, and #2363 replaces it with the change in Class 1 liability. So no change is needed here, but whichever of #2505 and #2363 lands second should check that case.
• #2490: clean on the files here. Its only conflict with this PR is in carers_allowance_earnings.py, which this PR doesn't touch. #2386: no shared files.

What I checked

• Read the integration commit, your 19 and 20 Oct comments and the updated body, against round 2 at 3531d110b.
• Fresh worktree and uv venv at 893dcff6b. policyengine-core test on tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/pensions and .../national_insurance: 271 passed. pytest on test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py and test_salary_sacrifice_needs_pay_properties.py: 31 passed.
• Aggregate impact on certified data: 0 checks broken. Market income falls by about £14.5bn a year from 2029-30, because main used to put the excess into employment_income. NI receipts barely move, and income tax falls by £0.3m. That is what the NI-only cap should do.
• Not checked: the private-data revenue test.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Created the owned, pe-parity tracking handoff TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#477 and changed the descriptive fiscal-partition note to name ni_class_1_income in 3c7f6bcb7f4dfb22190b8b4cf700394a5ff1fd3e. The parsed-YAML mask and exact byte inverse checks passed; classifications, formulas and tests are unchanged. Source, formatting, Towncrier and trusted Fix checks passed locally. The annual companion cases are conditional on implementing regulations. No billed encoder run is approved, and encoding/parity plus all existing API, consumer, documentation, private-data and Linux qualifications remain open. Current-head hosted CI still needs to pass before the next review request.

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 round 4, at 3c7f6bcb7.

Approving. Both round-3 points are fixed and CI is green. Two optional nits on rulespec-uk#477 below.

Round-3 points

7. should, axiom: line: fixed. The body now reads axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#477 queued. Fix evidence ran after your last body edit (09:03:44Z) and passed at 3c7f6bcb7. #477 is open, labelled pe-parity, and is ready to dispatch:

   • Module paths and corpus: proposed paths for ss.1 to 3 of the 2026 Act and for s.4 of both 1992 Acts, with the pinned corpus and its hash.
   • Law verbatim: I fetched the enacted 2026 Act from legislation.gov.uk. The XML hash matches the one in the issue. A word-level diff of your ss.1, 2 and 3 quotes against it differs only in one space before a comma in each of ss.1 and 2. That includes the NI text's "in respect of benefit", which is how the source reads.
   • Outputs and companion cases: the £2,000 limit, jurisdiction, effective tax year and added Class 1 earnings. The five cases (£0, £1,999.99, £2,000, £2,000.01, £10,000) are worked out from the Act's figures, not the model's, and match the cap in the PE parameter.
   • Blocker: recorded as no approved billed signed-encoder run, the same pattern as the other queued issues.

   The conditional companion cases are fine. New s.4(6A) only says regulations may treat the excess as earnings. Section 1(4) fixes £2,000 for the first regulations, and s.4(6B) requires amounts up to that limit to stay untreated. I found no regulations under the Act on legislation.gov.uk (made or draft). So no case can be unconditional until regulations exist. PolicyEngine's 2029 baseline assumes the same thing. Saying so in the issue, with s.4(6C) and (6D) kept as unencoded boundaries, is the honest framing.

8. nit, fiscal_partition.yaml note: fixed. 3c7f6bcb7 has a single parent, 893dcff6b, and changes only line 484, from employment_income to ni_class_1_income. The classification and every other file are unchanged.

New nits (optional)

9. nit, #477 opening line. It still says "Proposed label: pe-parity. This is a nonexecuting local draft; no issue has been created." That was true of the draft, but now it's wrong. It also names an owner by handle, which the other queued issues avoid. A few spaces were also lost in the prose, though not in the quotes: "or2026Act", "Class1", "5April2029", "up to£1". Worth a quick edit so the encoder isn't confused.
10. nit, later and outside this PR. salary_sacrifice_pension_cap.yaml still cites only the GOV.UK policy paper and Budget 2025. Now that the Act is law, a later PR could add ukpga/2026/15/section/1 as a reference.

What I checked

• CI at 3c7f6bcb7: all 16 checks pass, including Test / Python 1/4 to 4/4, Test / Result, Test / YAML, Fix evidence and Aggregate impact.
• Merges cleanly with current main (42c01db91), and nothing merged since round 3 touches the PR's 23 files. Round 3's notes on #2363 and #2505 still stand.

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