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Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests - #2387

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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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means-tests-dependants-income
Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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means-tests-dependants-income

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 12, 2026 •

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Fixes #2385

Summary

Housing Benefit, Income Support, tax credit and Council Tax Reduction applicable income counted the family's own children's and young persons' income, and subtracted their tax, National Insurance and pension contributions. Each formula's comment said the law counts only the claimant's and partner's, and that "dropping dependants' own income is a follow-up". This PR does that.

On main (a8b2848), 2026-27, England, a lone parent with a 17-year-old at school who earns £8,000 (YAML Case 1):

Variable main This PR
housing_benefit_applicable_income £8,000 £0
income_support_applicable_income £6,960 £0
tax_credits_applicable_income £8,000 £0
council_tax_reduction_applicable_income £8,000 £0

It is needed by #2299 (Child Benefit routes for young people who have left education), whose review ran a working 18-year-old school-leaver: once rightly a young person, their £20,000 of earnings entered the parent's Housing Benefit, Income Support and Council Tax Reduction means tests.

The law

Change

The four formulas' member mask is now the claimant and partner alone (is_claimant_or_partner; for Council Tax Reduction, is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner), where it was that or the programme's own child or young person. That covers the income components, the personal benefits, tax, National Insurance and pension contributions they add up. Unchanged: who is a child or young person, the allowances for them, and the benefit-unit awards these formulas add (Child Benefit, Income Support, the claimant-or-partner JSA and ESA, Universal Credit, tax credits). On main, tax credits' mask now sits in tax_credits_current_year_income, and Council Tax Reduction's starts from #2078's is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner, which counts a household head who applies alone as the applicant whatever their age; this PR drops only the children-and-young-persons term from each.

Invariants

  1. A child's or young person's own income, tax and personal benefits never change any of the four (nor Universal Credit's or Pension Credit's income, which already followed the rule).
  2. The claimant's and partner's income still counts in full.
  3. Anyone outside the family still never counts (the existing property).

Tests

  • Properties, test_means_test_income_properties.py: new test_income_of_children_and_young_persons_never_counts (invariant 1), on generated families with a child under 16 or a young person at school, each with up to £50,000 of earnings, pension and savings income, with every family on and off Universal Credit, across all seven income totals. It first checks that the dependant is each legacy programme's own child or young person, so the property cannot pass by excluding them. The existing outside-member property (invariant 3) is unchanged.
  • YAML, new means_tests_young_person_income.yaml, three cases hand-computed (2026-27), each failing on main:
Case Family Expected
1 lone parent, no income; 17-year-old at school earning £8,000 all four applicable incomes £0
2 as 1, parent earning £5,000 HB £5,000 − £25 × 52 = £3,700; IS £5,000 − £20 × 52 = £3,960; tax credits and CTR £5,000
3 pension-age HB: grandparent with a £20,000 pension, grandchild of 17 earning £8,000 HB and CTR £20,000 − £1,486 income tax = £18,514 (on main £26,514)
  • Changed expectations. council_tax_reduction_young_person.yaml Cases 2 and 3 counted the young person's £2,000 of earnings (£3,406.60); they now give Child Benefit alone, £1,406.60. test_council_tax_reduction_young_person_properties.py invariant 6: a non-applicant young person's earnings never count; the applicant's always do.

Mutation checks at fafd220, before the merge of main that moved the tax credit mask and brought in #2078's CTR mask, each applied alone in a copy of the branch (mutation/prG2.txt):

Mutation YAML cases that fail Property test
HB counts dependants again 1, 2, 3 fails
IS counts dependants again 1, 2 fails
Tax credits count dependants again 1, 2 fails
CTR counts dependants again 1, 2, 3, and the Scottish CTR file's Cases 2 and 3 fails
CTR drops the household head who applies alone the Scottish CTR file's Cases 9 and 10 passes (no head applicant in its families)

Run locally at 78a8cca (main a8b2848 merged):

At fafd220, before the merge: the 103 YAML files then matching, 1,140 passed (the two changed CTR expectations were the only failures before they changed); 18 Python files, 105 passed.

The full suites run in CI.

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

The report runs main a8b2848 against this PR merged into it (78a8cca) on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1), one full run per side for each year 2025-26 to 2031-32. Result: pass, 0 checks broken, no moves flagged, and no change in any year: no household's net income, receipt, spending line, poverty count or standard reform costing moves. The local run below agrees: its only award change is in 2024-25, before the report's first year.

Local runs

Real runs on Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (uk-data 1.58.0, sha256 5ba399ea5ab9a6c7), main e01f2f5 against this branch at fafd220, one run each for 2024-25 to 2030-31, exact comparison of every record (impact/prG2/ in the session folder).

Household incomes change only in 2024-25, for 2 records (343 weighted households), +£42,197 in working tax credit (mean £123). No household loses, and no Housing Benefit, Income Support, Council Tax Reduction, Universal Credit or Pension Credit award changes in any year: few families in the data have a dependant with income of their own, and those that do are not on these benefits.

The applicable incomes move (£ million a year; records that differ in brackets):

Variable 2024-25 2026-27 2030-31
tax_credits_applicable_income −840.1 (555) −913.1 (557) −1,049.4 (557)
housing_benefit_applicable_income −0.42 (6) −0.34 (8) +0.38 (12)
income_support_applicable_income −0.46 (4) −0.34 (8) +0.38 (12)
council_tax_reduction_applicable_income −0.42 (6) −0.34 (8) +0.38 (12)

Tax credits count investment income at step one, so children's savings and the like drop out there in many more records than in the other three. In the other three, the change can be upward: where a dependant paid income tax on income those formulas never counted, main subtracted the tax from the family's income. In 2030-31, 10 records rise and 2 fall in each of the three; each value appears in two records. Each rise equals a dependant's own income tax (£337.18, £110.64 twice, £484.63, £2,199.95), and each fall is a 19-year-old's own social security income of £4,880.24 (impact/prG2/dependants_2030.txt).

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_means_test_income_properties.py::test_income_of_children_and_young_persons_never_counts

axiom: SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 11 encoded-correct (uk/regulations/uksi/2012/2885/schedule/1/paragraph/11.yaml, companion test household_member_is_not_treated_without_polygamous_marriage); HB Regs 2006 reg 25, HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 23, IS Regs 1987 reg 23, SI 2002/2006 reg 3, WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 5, SSI 2012/319 reg 21 and SSI 2021/249 reg 36 TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#463 queued (blocker stated there: no module cites the rows, and a billed encoder run needs approval)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Fixes #2385. Housing Benefit, Income Support, tax credit and Council Tax
Reduction applicable income counted the family's own children's and young
persons' income, tax, contributions and personal benefits too, an
approximation each formula's comment called a follow-up. The law counts
the claimant's and partner's alone: HB Regs 2006 reg 25(3) and IS Regs
1987 reg 23(2) say in terms that a child's or young person's income is
not the claimant's; the tax credit income regulations (reg 3(1)) and every
Council Tax Reduction scheme count the claimant or applicant and partner
(SSI 2021/249 reg 36(2) says so in terms). The household head who applies
alone for Council Tax Reduction keeps the treatment #2288 gave them.

Tests: new YAML (three cases, each failing on main), a property test that
a dependant's income never changes any of the seven income totals, and
the Scottish CTR young-person tests updated to the rule.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026
…routes

Brings in #2387 (only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy
means tests), which this PR needs, and main e01f2f5 with it. The one
conflict, the means-test property docstring, keeps both changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026
…ent's means tests

Review round 1 of #2299: a young person who qualifies through reg. 7 and
works 24 hours stays a young person, so their earnings must not enter the
parent's Housing Benefit, Income Support or Council Tax Reduction income.
#2387, merged in here, makes that so; Case 11 now has £20,000 of earnings
and asserts the three applicable incomes are nil.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026
…outes

Brings in #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head 9d2fadb.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026
…lusion

Brings in #2301 and #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head. The
one conflict, the CTC QYP docstring, keeps both changes: the ceased-
education wording and the Income Support own-right input.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Main has moved the tax credit member mask into tax_credits_current_year_income
and, through #2078, means-tests the Council Tax Reduction applicant and
partner. Both conflicts take main's code and re-apply this PR's change
where the masks now live: the tax credit income counts the claimants
alone, and the CTR income the applicant and partner alone, dropping the
family's children and young persons that #2078 still counted.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 22, 2026
…routes

Brings in #2387 at 78a8cca, which carries main. The one conflict, the
legacy readers property test, takes #2279's current version: this PR's
own commits do not touch it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 22, 2026
…outes

Brings in #2299 on main with #2279 and #2387.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base a8b2848c13 against head f17090da0f, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main a8b2848c13 uk 2.146.0 (files 2365d367e734), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 2fbc53dd45f8 f210f83d5be4 1518.2s
head #2387 merged into main f17090da0f uk 2.146.0 (files 481ac73af4c5), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 2fbc53dd45f8 f210f83d5be4 1485.92s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.02bn £336.48bn £351.64bn £367.18bn £385.30bn £403.61bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.78bn £83.08bn £84.89bn £86.65bn £87.58bn £88.99bn £90.32bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,092k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,420k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 81k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.39bn £939.26bn £976.20bn £1,009.40bn £1,045.68bn £1,082.62bn £1,123.50bn
Government spending £536.25bn † £550.47bn † £556.59bn † £563.63bn † £572.17bn † £581.40bn † £590.57bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £363.14bn † £388.78bn † £419.61bn † £445.76bn † £473.50bn † £501.22bn † £532.92bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.52bn £942.39bn £979.33bn £1,012.53bn £1,048.81bn £1,085.75bn £1,126.63bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.67bn £548.46bn £570.65bn £592.86bn £617.31bn £644.02bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.35bn £514.55bn £540.11bn £561.61bn £583.58bn £607.77bn £634.13bn
gov_spending £536.25bn † £550.47bn † £556.59bn † £563.63bn † £572.17bn † £581.40bn † £590.57bn †
household_benefits £536.25bn † £550.47bn † £556.59bn † £563.63bn † £572.17bn † £581.40bn † £590.57bn †
gov_balance £366.27bn † £391.91bn † £422.74bn † £448.89bn † £476.63bn † £504.35bn † £536.05bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,657.86bn † £1,706.29bn † £1,737.92bn † £1,772.03bn † £1,808.11bn † £1,849.74bn † £1,901.49bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.42bn £1,513.07bn £1,545.12bn £1,578.09bn £1,612.10bn £1,651.13bn £1,701.58bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.0% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.1% 20.6% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 22.2% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 32.1% 30.3% 30.9% 31.1% 31.7% 32.3% 32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.6% 19.4% 20.2% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.9% 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 31.1% 31.3% 31.6% 32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 20.0% 20.0% 20.3% 20.4% 20.6% 20.8% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 12.8% 13.0% 12.7% 12.9% 13.2%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,057k 10,437k 10,858k 10,961k 11,093k 11,222k 11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,560k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,864k 5,737k 6,070k 6,165k 6,237k 6,315k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,663k 14,366k 14,907k 15,144k 15,491k 15,755k 15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,809k 4,556k 4,676k 4,719k 4,835k 4,939k 4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,333k 8,326k 8,775k 8,931k 9,122k 9,275k 9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,780k 11,464k 11,541k 11,665k 11,708k 11,832k 11,879k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,538k 3,514k 3,525k 3,542k 3,554k 3,565k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,160k 6,365k 6,466k 6,530k 6,636k 6,628k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,786k 1,766k 1,661k 1,673k 1,636k 1,643k 1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,110k 14,866k 14,956k 15,109k 15,281k 15,513k 15,696k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,948k 4,756k 4,684k 4,715k 4,771k 4,840k 4,916k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,531k 8,560k 8,793k 8,917k 9,054k 9,187k 9,257k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,631k 1,551k 1,479k 1,477k 1,456k 1,486k 1,523k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3066 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,700 † £17,996 † £17,934 † £17,991 † £18,328 † £18,506 † £18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,322 † £29,102 † £28,705 † £28,983 † £29,330 † £29,734 † £30,317 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,628 † £35,807 † £36,445 † £37,018 † £37,220 † £37,811 † £38,491 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,334 † £40,803 † £41,758 † £42,693 † £43,435 † £44,025 † £44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,856 † £46,150 † £47,078 † £47,577 † £48,027 † £49,181 † £50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,930 † £49,334 † £50,290 † £51,060 † £52,167 † £52,953 † £54,205 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,319 † £57,568 † £58,473 † £59,423 † £60,149 † £61,621 † £62,893 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,269 † £70,357 † £71,673 † £72,812 † £74,353 † £75,799 † £77,580 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,648 † £81,992 † £83,193 † £84,487 † £86,057 † £87,571 † £90,646 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,618 † £120,489 † £122,421 † £124,552 † £126,802 † £129,073 † £131,887 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.21bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.29bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.95bn £-22.32bn £-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.47bn £12.81bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.86bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 22, 2026 03:59
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Hand-off to the UK hub from the QYP follow-ups session (local_1b6fef51-8f78-48d7-addf-36982ce71831).

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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit ea5ca88 Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the means-tests-dependants-income branch October 22, 2026 13:16
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Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) as ea5ca8854 at 13:16Z on its merge gates (hand-off line 91, QYP session local_1b6fef51). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head 78a8cca52ec6775cf7cfa4baf4666e214e3907bd.

  • Change: the legacy means tests (tax credits, CTR, HB, IS) count only the claimant's and partner's income, not children's or young persons' (SI 2002/2006 reg 3(1); SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 11; WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 5; SSI 2012/319 reg 21(3); SSI 2021/249 reg 36(2)).
  • Reviews: GPT-6.1 Sol round 1 APPROVE at fafd2202c; GPT-6.1 Sol delta review APPROVE at this exact head (~/reviews/uk-hub/reviews/uk2387/REVIEW_2387.md). It read both conflict files in full and the provisions on legislation.gov.uk.
  • Tests: the 3 new YAML cases fail on main and pass here; 1,762 YAML in 144 files and 210 Python pass.
  • Impact: the Aggregate impact report shows no change in 2025-26 to 2031-32.
  • Follow-up (P3): council_tax_reduction_applicable_income.py:22 and :135 docstrings are stale.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates (hand-off line 91, QYP session local_1b6fef51). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head 78a8cca52ec6775cf7cfa4baf4666e214e3907bd.

  • Change: the legacy means tests (tax credits, CTR, HB, IS) count only the claimant's and partner's income, not children's or young persons' (SI 2002/2006 reg 3(1); SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 11; WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 5; SSI 2012/319 reg 21(3); SSI 2021/249 reg 36(2)).
  • Reviews: GPT-6.1 Sol round 1 APPROVE at fafd2202c; GPT-6.1 Sol delta review APPROVE at this exact head (~/reviews/uk-hub/reviews/uk2387/REVIEW_2387.md). It read both conflict files in full and the provisions on legislation.gov.uk.
  • Tests: the 3 new YAML cases fail on main and pass here; 1,762 YAML in 144 files and 210 Python pass.
  • Impact: the Aggregate impact report shows no change in 2025-26 to 2031-32.
  • Follow-up (P3): council_tax_reduction_applicable_income.py:22 and :135 docstrings are stale.

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Housing Benefit, Income Support, tax credit and CTR means tests count a young person's own income

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