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Release cached test systems and simulations at module end - #2358

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •

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Fixes #2357

What and why

Five test modules cached tax-benefit systems or simulations in module-level functools.lru_caches that nothing cleared, so a pytest worker kept them for the rest of its run. Each cached system also keeps the last simulation built on it (Simulation.__init__ sets tax_benefit_system.simulation = self). On CI run 38165445604, the worker that ran test_two_child_limit_age_exemption_properties.py built 13 systems, went from 1.10 to 1.65 GiB RSS during that file and stayed there.

This PR changes test code only. It does not touch conftest.py, and it branches from main, independent of #2269, #2317 and #2331.

Changes

  1. Two-child limit property test. tax_benefit_system(parameter, value) returned override(CountryTaxBenefitSystem()) from an unbounded cache: a new full system plus a reform for every threshold Hypothesis drew. It now builds one baseline system and builds each reform over it. Reform.__init__ clones only the baseline's parameter tree and copies its variables dict, so a reform over the shared baseline keeps 20 MiB and takes 0.53 s of CPU, against 54 MiB and 1.69 s for a reform over its own fresh system (tracemalloc, Python 3.13.9, policyengine-core 3.33.2). The reform cache holds the last two reforms. Each example uses the repealed limit and then one threshold, so the repealed limit's reform is never evicted and a reform is built only when the threshold changes.
  2. Cliff property test. Same shared baseline; the cache holds the four reforms that mtr_adults in st.integers(0, 3) can ask for.
  3. Module-end release. Each of the five modules gets a module-scoped autouse fixture that calls cache_clear() after its yield: the two files above, test_state_pension_age.py (differential_simulation, situation_template), test_state_pension_credit_qualifying_age.py (one_person_units_template and its own copy of differential_simulation) and test_uc_work_related_groups_properties.py (qualifying_age_couples).
    • The SPC file imports differential_simulation from policyengine_uk.tests.test_state_pension_age. Pytest collects the files in this directory by bare name (no __init__.py), so that import is a second module object with its own cache: sys.modules holds both test_state_pension_age and policyengine_uk.tests.test_state_pension_age, with different differential_simulation objects. The two files never shared the simulation, and each now clears its own.
  4. Guard. code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py is a static check that every functools cache a test module defines, imports from another test file, or fills through a helper imported from another test file is cleared after the yield of a module-scoped autouse fixture. It reports all five modules as they are on main.

Measured

Before is main at c6d15c8 in a clean worktree; after is this branch. Each pair ran at the same time on the same host (macOS 26.6.2, Apple M5 Max, Python 3.13.9, serial pytest), so both sides saw the same load. The host was heavily loaded, so compare within a pair and prefer CPU time to wall time. A pytest plugin outside the repo recorded, per module, wall and CPU time, RSS (sampled every 20 ms), tracemalloc, the systems and reforms built, and the TaxBenefitSystem, Reform and Simulation objects alive after the module's teardown and a gc.collect().

The five files in one process, in collection order

File Wall, s CPU, s RSS added and kept, MiB Systems + reforms built
test_cliff_evaluated_properties.py 5.1 → 3.4 4.9 → 3.2 +314 → +91 4 + 4 → 1 + 4
test_state_pension_age.py 24.9 → 26.0 24.0 → 25.2 +233 → +138 0 → 0
test_state_pension_credit_qualifying_age.py 18.4 → 18.1 17.4 → 17.3 +314 → +168 0 → 0
test_two_child_limit_age_exemption_properties.py 14.2 → 5.6 13.3 → 5.1 +805 → −4 13 + 12 → 1 + 16
test_uc_work_related_groups_properties.py 198.8 → 184.0 184.8 → 173.3 +710 → +90 145 + 0 → 145 + 0
  • RSS after the last file: 2,761 → 750 MiB.
  • Objects alive after the last file: 28 systems, 16 reforms and 33 simulations → 1 system (the package's own system), 0 reforms and 0 simulations. After this PR that is the count after every one of the five modules.
  • macOS does not return all freed memory to the system, so RSS "kept" overstates what is still referenced. The tracemalloc table shows the Python heap itself.

Python heap (tracemalloc), same five files

File Heap growth at its peak during the file, MiB Heap kept after the file, MiB
test_cliff_evaluated_properties.py +302 → +196 +286 → +11
test_state_pension_age.py +330 → +282 +156 → 0
test_state_pension_credit_qualifying_age.py +395 → +338 +362 → 0
test_two_child_limit_age_exemption_properties.py +806 → +164 +739 → +11
test_uc_work_related_groups_properties.py +653 → +394 +109 → +43

Heap after the last file: 1,660 → 74 MiB.

Each property file alone in a fresh process, three runs

File Wall, s CPU, s RSS peak during the file, MiB RSS after the file, MiB
Two-child limit, before 13.2, 14.1, 14.6 10.8, 12.7, 12.5 1,077 to 1,078 1,077 to 1,078
Two-child limit, after 4.8, 6.5, 6.3 4.6, 5.5, 5.3 409 to 411 347 to 352
Cliff, before 6.2, 6.1, 5.8 5.4, 5.4, 5.2 571 to 574 571 to 574
Cliff, after 4.8, 4.0, 3.9 3.6, 3.5, 3.5 460 to 461 346 to 348

RSS before each file's first test was 255 to 260 MiB in all twelve runs.

Under coverage, as CI measures it

Cliff then two-child limit in one process with --cov=policyengine_uk and COVERAGE_CORE=sysmon (coverage 7.16.2 reports the SysMonitor core with that setting): the two-child limit file took 15.2 → 5.9 s, peaked at 1,453 → 458 MiB RSS and kept +839 → +63 MiB; the cliff file took 6.0 → 4.1 s and kept +325 → +99 MiB.

Time

The caches exist for speed, and this PR does not cost any. The two property files are faster because they build 1 system instead of 13 and 4. The other three files only gain a cache_clear() at module end. Their CPU times moved by +5% (State Pension age), −1% (SPC) and −6% (UC work-related groups) in the paired run; three identical runs of the two-child limit file on main ranged from 10.8 to 12.7 s on this host, so those differences are within run-to-run variation.

One cost to know about: CI runs -n 4 --dist worksteal. If a worker runs a module's tests in two stretches with another module's tests between them, the fixture's teardown runs in between and the next call rebuilds the cache. Results do not change. Before this PR, a module split across workers already built its cache once per worker.

Outcomes are unchanged

  • Same tests. pytest --collect-only policyengine_uk/tests gives the same 5,111 test IDs before and after, plus the guard's 5 new tests.
  • Same results. All 87 tests in the five files passed on both sides of all six paired runs of those files.
  • Same computed values. A second plugin recorded the variable, period, dtype, shape and SHA-1 of every top-level Simulation.calculate result. With --hypothesis-seed=0, the 8,390 records from the five files are identical and in the same order before and after.
    • Without a fixed seed, the Hypothesis tests in the State Pension age and SPC files draw different examples on every run, on main too, because they do not set derandomize=True. The two-child limit, cliff and UC work-related groups files do set it, and their 6,253 records matched without a seed.
  • Same Hypothesis examples. derandomize=True seeds from the test function's own source and signature. All 32 test functions in the five files, 16 of them Hypothesis tests, have byte-identical source to main.

Reviews

  • Two independent Opus 5.5 reviews approved at a30aa90 with no blocking findings (the Codex lanes were closed then, so neither ran on GPT-6.1 Sol).
  • A GPT-6.1 Sol re-review approved at da5a9c8 with nits only.
  • Commits da5a9c8 and 5420c06 take the reviewers' non-blocking points: the guard follows aliased and relative imports, helper functions and assignment-form caches, and three comments are more exact. Seven mutations of the guard's scan each fail one of its self-tests.
  • A Sol re-review of 5420c06 is running.

None of the three finished reviews completed a pytest run, because their sandboxes were read-only. The Sol re-review ran ruff, the guard's scan and four of its self-tests in memory. The pytest runs in this description are this session's.

Caches main added since

Merging main brought module-level caches into six more test modules. The guard caught every one, and each module now clears them after the yield of a module-scoped autouse fixture, as above. The guard itself is unchanged.

Module Caches released
test_council_tax_uprating.py _country_of_each_region
test_water_uprating.py _country_of_each_region
test_current_education_order.py last_data_year
test_dated_reform_routes.py current_law_leaf_values, later_first_dated_parameters, parameters_with_a_closed_span
test_fiscal_partition.py partition, traced_reads, baseline_values, baseline_entity_values
test_reform_inputs_survive_reset.py base (a cached Simulation)

These were not measured for memory. Most hold computed results (a region mapping, a year, parameter tables, traced reads, baseline values); base holds a simulation and its system.

Not in this PR

  • Six other test modules build a system or a clone at import time and keep it as a module global (SYSTEM = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(), _PROPERTY_SYSTEM = system.clone()). Every xdist worker imports every test module, so each worker holds them for the whole session: collecting the suite holds 315 MiB of heap and 8 systems, against 148 MiB and 2 systems with those six files ignored. Queued as a separate task.
  • test_uc_work_related_groups_properties.py builds a new system for every Simulation (145 here), which is Follow-ups from #2160: qualifying-age docstring, UC work-related groups property-file speed, changelog fragment example #2162 item 2. Queued as a separate task.

Test plan

  • Not a policy change: no YAML tests apply.
  • ruff format and ruff check on the six touched files (run on those files rather than make format, to leave other files alone).
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/2357.fixed.md.
  • The five touched test files and the guard pass locally on Python 3.13: 92 passed.
  • The guard reports unreleased caches in all five modules as they are on main, and none on this branch.
  • At 5ce4095 (main c65bced merged): the guard and the five original files 108 passed; the six newly released modules 200 passed (-n 4, Hypothesis shrinking off, same examples).
  • The full suite was not run locally, because the host was heavily loaded. CI runs it.

axiom: n/a: test infrastructure

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py::test_every_test_module_cache_is_released, policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py::test_the_scan_finds_caches_and_releases, policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py::test_the_scan_follows_functions_to_the_caches_they_fill, policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py::test_the_scan_follows_imports_from_other_test_files, policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py::test_the_scan_resolves_this_directorys_imports

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 11, 2026 17:38
Five test modules cached tax-benefit systems or simulations in module-level
lru_caches that were never cleared, so a pytest worker kept them for the rest
of its run. The two-child limit file kept one fresh system per parameter value
drawn (13 on CI, +0.54 GiB RSS that stayed).

- two-child limit and cliff property tests: build reforms over one shared
  baseline system (a reform clones only the parameters), keep the last two
  reforms (two-child) or the four mtr_adults values (cliff), and clear the
  caches in a module-scoped autouse fixture.
- test_state_pension_age, test_state_pension_credit_qualifying_age and
  test_uc_work_related_groups_properties: clear their cached simulations in a
  module-scoped autouse fixture.
- code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py: every module-level
  functools cache a test module defines or imports must be cleared after the
  yield of a module-scoped autouse fixture.

Test functions' source is unchanged, so Hypothesis's derandomized examples are
the same.

Fixes #2357

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The guard only saw a yield written directly in the fixture body, so a
fixture that yields inside a with or try block (as reuse_country_model
does) was reported as not releasing its caches. Count any cache_clear()
after the fixture's first yield, and test decorator forms, that case and
imports from other test files. Drop the leading "- " from the changelog
fragment: towncrier's default template adds the bullet (#2162).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
From the two reviews of #2358 (both approve, no blocking findings):

- The guard now also sees async cached functions and
  `name = lru_cache(...)(function)`, follows aliased and relative imports
  from other test files, and requires a module to clear a cache it fills
  through a helper imported from another test file. It ignores a yield or
  cache_clear inside a function nested in the fixture, and only treats
  `lru_cache`/`cache` and `functools.*` as caches. Its docstring says what a
  static scan cannot see.
- The two-child comment states why a reform is built only when the
  threshold changes instead of quoting a count that depends on the
  Hypothesis version.
- The SPC comment says which module the import loads.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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CI run cancelled to free runners (UK hub, 2026-10-11 23:30Z). The PolicyEngine org is at GitHub's limit of 60 concurrent jobs, with about 360 queued. Fleet ops asked the hub to let the Budget-critical #2305 take runners first. This PR's queued run had not started, so I cancelled it. Nothing is wrong with the PR.

Please don't re-run it or push just to retrigger CI. The hub re-runs this run itself once #2305 has runners. The record is ~/reviews/uk-hub/ci-yield-2026-10-11.json; see notice 17 in ~/reviews/uk-hub/notices.md.

From the GPT-6.1 Sol re-review of #2358 at da5a9c8 (approve, nits only):

- A cache made by assignment (`name = cache(function)`) is followed into
  the function it wraps, and `name = lru_cache(maxsize=1)` is not taken for
  a cache.
- A cache imported under several names is released by clearing any of them.
- The self-tests cover a relative import from a subdirectory, which only
  the import's level resolves. Seven mutations of the scan each fail a
  self-test.
- The docstring and the SPC comment say the second module copy arises under
  pytest's default import mode, and the docstring lists re-exports through a
  third test file among what the scan does not see.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Brings the branch up to date and runs the checks main now requires (Test / Result, Lint).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base fe0b99a36b against head 18e3d5e2cb, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main fe0b99a36b uk 2.147.2 (files 16352cfe8445), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5c9a49667c9b d4c1e9f08160 1524.75s
head #2358 merged into main 18e3d5e2cb uk 2.147.2 (files 16352cfe8445), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5c9a49667c9b d4c1e9f08160 1505.75s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £82.55bn £84.28bn £85.26bn £86.64bn £87.92bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.69bn £3.18bn £3.26bn £3.33bn £3.42bn £3.51bn £3.60bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,402k 6,412k 6,386k 6,378k 6,363k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,029k 1,033k 1,035k 1,039k 1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
Government spending £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.45bn † £392.26bn † £423.13bn † £449.35bn † £477.06bn † £504.85bn † £536.62bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.32bn £567.51bn £589.72bn £614.17bn £640.87bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £536.97bn £558.47bn £580.44bn £604.62bn £630.98bn
gov_spending £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
household_benefits £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
gov_balance £367.45bn † £392.26bn † £423.13bn † £449.35bn † £477.06bn † £504.85bn † £536.62bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.69bn † £1,705.94bn † £1,737.53bn † £1,771.57bn † £1,807.68bn † £1,849.24bn † £1,900.92bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,542.73bn £1,575.67bn £1,609.74bn £1,648.74bn £1,699.14bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0% 15.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 22.0% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 22.2% 22.4% 22.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.6% 31.8% 32.4% 32.9% 33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.4% 20.6% 20.9% 21.2% 21.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.7% 23.6% 23.2% 23.3% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.4% 14.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.4% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.4% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5% 32.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,975k 11,077k 11,210k 11,339k 11,354k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,332k 3,325k 3,371k 3,407k 3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,115k 6,209k 6,281k 6,360k 6,367k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 15,080k 15,313k 15,657k 15,918k 16,049k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,776k 4,818k 4,933k 5,035k 5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,848k 9,001k 9,191k 9,342k 9,400k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,639k 11,698k 11,596k 11,730k 11,890k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,578k 3,587k 3,531k 3,566k 3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,401k 6,485k 6,468k 6,552k 6,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,660k 1,627k 1,597k 1,611k 1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,981k 15,071k 15,191k 15,336k 15,683k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,751k 4,755k 4,774k 4,816k 4,937k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,784k 8,917k 9,017k 9,112k 9,256k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,445k 1,399k 1,399k 1,408k 1,491k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3074 0.3080 0.3085 0.3091 0.3102
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £17,980 † £18,037 † £18,364 † £18,545 † £18,723 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,135 † £29,092 † £28,744 † £29,163 † £29,434 † £29,997 † £30,442 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,229 † £36,632 † £36,967 † £37,482 † £38,380 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £41,970 † £42,713 † £43,280 † £44,024 † £44,550 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £45,872 † £46,588 † £47,624 † £48,569 † £49,772 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,932 † £51,700 † £52,150 † £53,469 † £54,371 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,360 † £57,552 † £58,380 † £59,120 † £60,160 † £60,882 † £62,979 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,732 † £72,842 † £74,422 † £75,795 † £77,575 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,280 † £84,576 † £86,144 † £87,656 † £90,725 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,692 † £126,940 † £129,209 † £132,023 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.40bn £-21.83bn £-21.91bn £-22.28bn £-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.48bn £12.82bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.39bn £21.82bn £21.90bn £22.27bn £22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.24bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 23, 2026 04:13
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
After the merges of main, test_every_test_module_cache_is_released found
module-level functools caches that nothing clears in six test modules that
gained them on main since this branch's base (c6d15c8):
test_council_tax_uprating.py and test_water_uprating.py
(_country_of_each_region), test_current_education_order.py
(last_data_year, added after the hub's merge of fe0b99a),
test_dated_reform_routes.py (current_law_leaf_values,
later_first_dated_parameters, parameters_with_a_closed_span),
test_fiscal_partition.py (partition, traced_reads, baseline_values,
baseline_entity_values) and test_reform_inputs_survive_reset.py (base, a
cached Simulation). Each module now clears them after the yield of a
module-scoped autouse fixture, as the other five modules do. The guard is
unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Backlog F hand-off (UK hub build job, 2026-10-23)

Head: 5ce40959d3e2e526e0c42230559714f6645af602. I merged origin/main at c65bced64 with a merge commit (15b4a68c9), then added one test-only commit (5ce40959d). There is no force-push and the author is unchanged.

Failure: after the main merges, code_health/test_test_module_caches_released.py::test_every_test_module_cache_is_released reported module-level functools caches that nothing clears in six modules. Since this branch's base (c6d15c8e6), main added five of them and gave the sixth (test_council_tax_uprating.py) its cache. test_current_education_order.py gained its cache after the hub's fe0b99a36 merge.

Change: each module gets a module-scoped autouse fixture that calls cache_clear() after its yield, placed after the module's last cache, as the PR does for its own five modules:

Module Caches released
test_council_tax_uprating.py _country_of_each_region
test_water_uprating.py _country_of_each_region
test_current_education_order.py last_data_year
test_dated_reform_routes.py current_law_leaf_values, later_first_dated_parameters, parameters_with_a_closed_span
test_fiscal_partition.py partition, traced_reads, baseline_values, baseline_entity_values
test_reform_inputs_survive_reset.py base (a cached Simulation)

The code-health test is unchanged (no allowlist, no weakened scan). No production code changed. test_fiscal_partition.py sits next to W3's fiscal-partition work; the change there is only the fixture.

Tests at 5ce4095 (local, foreground, -n 4):

Tests Result
Guard 5 passed (it was 1 failed and 4 passed before this commit)
Guard plus the PR's five modules 108 passed
The six modules above 200 passed

Hypothesis shrinking was off for these runs, with the same examples. Ruff format and check pass. I did not run the full suite locally; CI runs it. The new releases were not memory-measured.

Open: CI at this head and the hub's independent review. The PR is still a draft; I have not merged it or marked it ready.

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Test modules keep cached tax-benefit systems and simulations for the rest of the test run

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