[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #1941

Additional pensions (SERPS/S2P) and new State Pension protected payments rise each April by September CPI. The model raised them by the full rate's own triple-lock ratio. This uprates them by September CPI from the data year, as the Up-rating Orders do.

Law

Additional pensions and protected payments follow prices separately from the full State Pension rates. SI 2026/148 article 4(3) directs the covered additional pensions to be “increased by 3.8 per cent.”, with a final relevant year before 2025–26. Article 6(3)(b) covers amounts “at the transitional rate which exceed the full rate” and applies the same 3.8%. The full rates rise about 4.8%: £176.45→£184.90 and £230.25→£241.30 (articles 4(2) and 6(1)).

The equivalent 2025 article 4(3) and article 6(3)(b) direct the add-ons to be “increased by 1.7 per cent.”, against about 4.1% for the full rates. The made HTML and XML were read for both Orders; the current 2025 /data.xml omits these provisions, so the operative text was checked at /made/data.xml.

SSAA 1992 sections 150–151 provide the prices review and percentage increase for additional pensions; section 151A covers the transitional excess. These duties prescribe an increase when prices rise, rather than a cut when they fall. The 2016 Order explanatory memorandum, paragraph 4.2 and footnote 2, confirms no increase under section 150 when September 2015 CPI was −0.1%. Section 150A sets an earnings minimum for the full rates; it does not itself legislate all three triple-lock elements.

Change

additional_state_pension uprates the reported excess above the period type's legislated data-year full rate by I(period) / I(data_year), where I is the simulation's own gov.economic_assumptions.indices.september_cpi_uprating. CPI or macro scenarios can therefore move the add-on. The baseline data-year split from #2122 remains; basic and new flat-rate components retain their full-rate ratios.

Reforms to the full rates or the triple lock no longer move the add-on, because in law it follows prices (SI 2026/148 articles 4(3) and 6(3)(b)). For the years the Up-rating Orders cover (to April 2026) the model reproduces each Order's percentage exactly. From April 2027 SSAA 1992 ss.150(2) and 151A(3) set a floor ("not less than" the rise in prices); the model pays exactly September CPI, the floor and what every Order has given. A reform that raises the add-on by more would need a reform to this variable. This intentionally changes the #2122 full-rate-reform expectations, including a rate of zero. gov.contrib.abolish_state_pension still removes the entire pension.

The existing September CPI builder was read, including its docstring: published September CPI is rounded to 0.1 percentage points and floored at zero. The test reference hard-codes the statutory rises for 2011–2026 and independently rounds CPI inputs only for forecast years; it never calls the production index. Those historical percentages were checked against the Orders, including zero in April 2016. The model rounds each compounded index to five decimal places, so ratio/reference checks allow 1e-5 rounding tolerance.

Files: policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/additional_state_pension.py (the add-on's uprating), policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py (statutory reference, dataset-built regressions, properties), docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/state-pension.md (Components, Uprating, the forecast-year floor, one remaining simplification, What's been fixed), changelog.d/1941.fixed.md.

Tests and fail-on-main evidence

Dataset-built cases (the YAML runner has no dataset, so its data year is the period and it cannot show uprating): a basic pensioner reporting £200 a week in 2024-25 has 2026-27 additional pension (200 − 169.50) × 52 × 1.017 × 1.038 = £1,674.25; a new State Pension recipient reporting £240 has a 2026-27 protected payment (240 − 221.20) × 52 × 1.017 × 1.038 = £1,032.00; and the add-on grows each year by that year's September CPI rise. The independent review recomputed both by hand.

Fail on main, pass on head. policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py from this head, copied into a detached tree at main 76cfc9e79: 23 failed, 8 passed (16 min, -n 4). Every failure is an assertion showing main's flat-rate uprating, for example an add-on ratio of 1.0410 (176.45 / 169.50) where the 2025 Order gives 1.017. The 8 passes are the cases this PR doesn't change. At 2fd0c7a8 the same file passed 31/31; since then only merges of main and docs changed, and CI runs the full suite on this head.

Invariants and mutation evidence

Four Hypothesis tests, ten deterministic examples each, cover:

• Deflating each component by its own uprating recovers the reported pension for eligible records, including arbitrary later ages and BASIC/NEW type transitions; components have no gap or overlap.
• The add-on is nonnegative and monotone in reported pension; annual growth equals September CPI when the type is unchanged.
• Differential against the old main formula: flat parts unchanged, data-year add-on unchanged, later differences attributable only to CPI versus the flat-rate ratio.
• Differential for the same records with and without arbitrary full-rate reforms (including zero, undated and future-dated): add-on unchanged.

All four properties were also reduced to one initial BASIC record (male, age 90, three months since birthday, £200/week in 2024): 4 expected failures on main in 7.33 seconds; 4 passes on head in 6.98 seconds. The monotonicity case adds the required paired record reporting £1/week more; the reform case sets both full rates to zero, undated. Main's deflated accounting result is £10,437.43275 against a £10,400 report, and its zero-rate reform removes £1,586 of data-year add-on; the fix preserves both identities. These are synthetic counterexamples, not national figures.

The saved mutation run had 12/12 unmutated checks pass and 5/5 mutants killed: restore full-rate uprating; read CPI from baseline instead of the scenario; remove the floor; use the prior-year index; split at the reformed data-year full rate. This evidence predates the main merges; its formula source is identical to the merged formula head. A fresh scratch-tree confirmation passed three unmutated statutory/scenario controls, then killed both restored full-rate uprating (one intended assertion failure) and baseline-CPI reading (one intended assertion failure). The source was restored and the scratch clone removed. Each command used uv run --active --no-sync pytest <selected nodeids> -n 0 -vv --tb=short -o usefixtures=cloned_uk_tax_benefit_system; no model file was mutated in the actual head.

Impact on the certified pair

Real Microsimulation runs, one per code version and year, on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 from policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1 (sha256 056e80fd8e91…, the dataset in policyengine.py's certified UK bundle, pe-uk 2.130.1 + uk-data 1.58.1). Base: main 76cfc9e79. Head: this PR at fa27e4948. Both trees clean. About 10 s a year each.

£m change	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31
additional_state_pension	+0.0	-352.7	-477.8	-713.7	-738.5	-758.9	-781.9
state_pension	+0.0	-352.7	-477.8	-713.7	-738.5	-758.9	-781.9
pension_credit	+0.0	+22.9	+29.4	+43.0	+45.0	+47.5	+50.2
housing_benefit	+0.0	+2.0	+4.7	+3.6	+3.8	+6.7	+6.5
universal_credit	+0.0	+0.2	+0.1	+0.2	+0.2	+0.2	+0.1
council_tax_reduction	+0.0	+1.3	+2.2	+3.3	+3.5	+3.8	+4.1
income_tax	+0.0	-67.6	-96.7	-148.0	-157.3	-164.3	-171.9
household_net_income	+0.0	-258.3	-343.2	-513.1	-525.2	-535.1	-547.2
gov_balance	+0.0	+258.3	+343.2	+513.1	+525.2	+535.1	+547.2

additional_state_pension 2030-31: base £12,616.6m, head £11,834.7m, records changed 14600, weighted 5,543,341
state_pension 2030-31: base £138,021.6m, head £137,239.7m, records changed 14600, weighted 5,543,341

Poverty change (pp)	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
in_poverty_bhc:all	+0.000	+0.009	–	+0.015	–	–	+0.017
in_poverty_bhc:pensioners	+0.000	+0.052	–	+0.089	–	–	+0.102
in_poverty_ahc:all	+0.000	+0.006	+0.007	+0.013	+0.021	+0.012	+0.014
in_poverty_ahc:pensioners	+0.000	+0.028	+0.037	+0.070	+0.126	+0.067	+0.082
in_relative_poverty_bhc:all	+0.000	–	+0.011	–	+0.056	+0.002	-0.050
in_relative_poverty_bhc:pensioners	+0.000	–	+0.067	–	+0.342	+0.105	+0.075
in_relative_poverty_ahc:all	+0.000	–	-0.007	+0.028	-0.009	-0.051	+0.012
in_relative_poverty_ahc:pensioners	+0.000	–	+0.026	+0.170	+0.033	+0.020	+0.069

• 2024-25 is the data year: no change, as the split identity requires.
• The change is the add-on: £15.3bn of additional pension in 2025-26 uprated by 1.017 instead of 1.041 is about £353m, which is what the runs give. It grows as the full rates' rise outpaces prices.
• The lower State Pension raises Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and CTR a little and lowers income tax. The government balance improves by the fall in household net income: £258m in 2025-26 to £547m in 2030-31.
• Poverty (people, percentage points): pensioner absolute poverty before housing costs rises by 0.05pp in 2025-26 and 0.10pp in 2030-31; cells resting on fewer than three changed records are suppressed (–).
• Differential check: the CI "Aggregate impact on certified data" report on this PR (W3's workflow, same base and dataset, run 39506093016) gives the same State Pension changes to £0.1m, its precision (−£352.7m in 2025-26 … −£781.9m in 2030-31).
• The same report shows the intended reform change: under a "raise the State Pension by 10%" reform, State Pension rises £1.1-1.5bn a year less than on main, and the net cost falls by £0.76-1.11bn, because the 10% no longer scales additional pension.

Disclosure: any cell resting on fewer than three dataset records is shown as –, with complementary suppression. Scripts: run_impact.py and compare.py (kept with the evidence, outside the repo).

Overlaps

• Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80 #2340 (State Pension age addition (25p a week at 80, SSCBA 1992 s.79) is not modelled #2139, the 25p age addition) is stacked on this PR. Merge this first.
• Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092 (draft) edits docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/state-pension.md and create_triple_lock.py; expect a text conflict in the docs page.
• uk-triple-lock's engine pins additional_state_pension per person with set_input, so this formula doesn't run in its simulations; that project has been told, and the variable name and set_input behaviour are unchanged.

Review

GPT-6.1 Sol reviewed 4e495b77e (APPROVE on law and code) and then this head, fa27e4948 (APPROVE). The first review's P2 findings (stale body, a pre-fix figure in the docs, a wrong overlap note) and P3 notes (the forecast-year floor, a stated simplification) are addressed; the second review's two wording notes are in this body. The commits after the first review change only docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/state-pension.md.

Axiom parity

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#457 queued

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py::test_additional_pension_rises_with_september_cpi_not_the_basic_rate, policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py::test_protected_payment_rises_with_september_cpi_not_the_new_rate, policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py::test_add_on_grows_each_year_by_that_years_september_cpi_rise

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 76cfc9e798 against head 8d8cb4244c, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 97 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2025-26	£12.25bn	£10.72bn	-£1.53bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2026-27	£12.71bn	£11.23bn	-£1.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2027-28	£12.83bn	£11.37bn	-£1.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2025-26	£-8.92bn	£-7.81bn	+£1.11bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2028-29	£13.02bn	£11.62bn	-£1.40bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2026-27	£-9.13bn	£-8.07bn	+£1.06bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2027-28	£-9.03bn	£-7.99bn	+£1.03bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2029-30	£13.41bn	£12.08bn	-£1.32bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2028-29	£-9.06bn	£-8.11bn	+£958.4m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2030-31	£13.80bn	£12.54bn	-£1.26bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2029-30	£-9.26bn	£-8.36bn	+£900.7m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2030-31	£-9.51bn	£-8.66bn	+£854.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	2031-32	£14.21bn	£13.07bn	-£1.14bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2031-32	£-9.78bn	£-9.02bn	+£758.3m
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£48,380	£48,030	-£350
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£43,195	£43,445	+£250
State Pension	2028-29	£130.21bn	£129.47bn	-£738.5m
State Pension	2030-31	£138.02bn	£137.24bn	-£781.9m
State Pension	2029-30	£134.05bn	£133.29bn	-£758.9m
State Pension	2027-28	£128.28bn	£127.57bn	-£713.7m
State Pension	2031-32	£142.08bn	£141.32bn	-£758.1m
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	1,634k	1,673k	+38.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	1,625k	1,661k	+36.5k
State Pension	2026-27	£127.12bn	£126.64bn	-£477.8m
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	14.3%	14.7%	+0.34pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	14.1%	14.4%	+0.32pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,661k	1,686k	+24.3k
State Pension	2025-26	£122.50bn	£122.15bn	-£352.7m
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	1,451k	1,470k	+19.6k
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£40,908	£40,803	-£105
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	23.4%	23.2%	-0.25pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2025-26	1,766k	1,786k	+20.1k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2031-32	31.8%	31.6%	-0.23pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	14.4%	14.6%	+0.21pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	3,602k	3,564k	-37.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	1,394k	1,408k	+14.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2030-31	23.4%	23.2%	-0.19pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	1,529k	1,543k	+13.9k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2029-30	1,544k	1,558k	+14.0k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,565k	1,579k	+13.4k

57 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	-£67.6m	-£96.7m	-£148.0m	-£157.3m	-£164.3m	-£171.9m	-£165.7m
Capital gains tax	-£69,280	-£0.1m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m
TV licence fee	-£20,477	-£74,024	-£86,209	-£0.7m	-£0.3m	-£0.4m	-£0.2m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	-£352.7m	-£477.8m	-£713.7m	-£738.5m	-£758.9m	-£781.9m	-£758.1m
Pension Credit	+£23.0m	+£29.6m	+£43.3m	+£45.2m	+£47.7m	+£50.5m	+£52.5m
Winter Fuel Payment	+£0.2m	+£1.0m	+£2.0m	+£2.4m	+£0.6m	+£0.9m	+£3.1m
Universal Credit	+£0.2m	+£86,983	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£0.1m	+£97,857
Housing Benefit	+£2.0m	+£4.8m	+£3.6m	+£3.8m	+£6.7m	+£6.6m	+£4.5m
Council Tax Reduction	+£1.3m	+£2.2m	+£3.3m	+£3.5m	+£3.8m	+£4.1m	+£3.7m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	+958	+524	+423	+3.6k	+1.9k	+2.7k	+2.9k
Winter Fuel Payment	+998	+3.6k	+7.1k	+8.3k	+2.3k	+3.3k	+11.4k
Universal Credit	0	0	0	+430	+432	+434	+293
Housing Benefit	0	+305	-190	-190	+247	+248	0
Council Tax Reduction	+2.1k	+970	+1.6k	+1.3k	+3.0k	+1.2k	+437
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	-£67.7m	-£96.9m	-£148.3m	-£158.2m	-£164.8m	-£172.5m	-£166.2m
Government spending	-£326.0m †	-£440.2m †	-£661.4m †	-£683.4m †	-£699.8m †	-£719.7m †	-£694.1m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£258.3m †	+£343.2m †	+£513.1m †	+£525.2m †	+£535.1m †	+£547.2m †	+£527.9m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	-£67.7m	-£96.9m	-£148.3m	-£158.2m	-£164.8m	-£172.5m	-£166.2m
household_tax	-£67.7m	-£96.9m	-£148.3m	-£158.2m	-£164.8m	-£172.5m	-£166.2m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	-£67.7m	-£96.9m	-£148.3m	-£158.2m	-£164.8m	-£172.5m	-£166.2m
gov_spending	-£326.0m †	-£440.2m †	-£661.4m †	-£683.4m †	-£699.8m †	-£719.7m †	-£694.1m †
household_benefits	-£326.0m †	-£440.2m †	-£661.4m †	-£683.4m †	-£699.8m †	-£719.7m †	-£694.1m †
gov_balance	+£258.3m †	+£343.2m †	+£513.1m †	+£525.2m †	+£535.1m †	+£547.2m †	+£527.9m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£258.3m †	-£343.2m †	-£513.1m †	-£525.2m †	-£535.1m †	-£547.2m †	-£527.9m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£258.3m	-£343.3m	-£513.3m	-£525.4m	-£535.2m	-£547.4m	-£528.1m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	+0.00pp	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+0.05pp	+0.08pp	+0.09pp	+0.12pp	+0.12pp	+0.10pp	+0.12pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.03pp	+0.04pp	+0.07pp	+0.13pp	+0.07pp	+0.08pp	+0.07pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.03pp	+0.01pp	+0.05pp	+0.06pp	+0.00pp	-0.05pp	-0.05pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	0	0	0	-0.03pp	-0.19pp	-0.25pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0.00pp	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	-0.02pp	-0.04pp	-0.06pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+0.17pp	+0.07pp	+0.32pp	+0.34pp	+0.11pp	+0.07pp	+0.21pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	-0.01pp	+0.03pp	-0.01pp	-0.05pp	+0.01pp	-0.09pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	0	-0.01pp	-0.17pp	0	-0.23pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	-0.02pp	0	-0.02pp	-0.03pp	+0.00pp	-0.08pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.05pp	+0.03pp	+0.17pp	+0.03pp	+0.02pp	+0.07pp	+0.05pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+6.2k	+10.0k	+10.2k	+13.9k	+14.0k	+12.4k	+14.1k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	+1	0	+20	+20	+657	+639
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+6.2k	+10.0k	+10.2k	+13.9k	+14.0k	+11.7k	+13.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+3.8k	+5.0k	+8.8k	+15.0k	+8.8k	+10.0k	+8.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+467	+636	+814	+608	+1.0k	+614	+616
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+3.4k	+4.4k	+8.0k	+14.4k	+7.7k	+9.4k	+7.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+20.1k	+7.9k	+36.7k	+39.6k	+1.6k	-35.4k	-37.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	0	0	0	-3.8k	-28.4k	-37.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0	0	+167	+653	-6.6k	-15.6k	-24.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+20.1k	+7.9k	+36.5k	+38.9k	+12.1k	+8.6k	+24.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+5.3k	-4.5k	+19.6k	-6.4k	-35.9k	+8.5k	-65.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-86	-1.0k	0	-1.9k	-25.2k	0	-34.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-34	-6.6k	0	-8.2k	-13.0k	+614	-35.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+5.4k	+3.1k	+19.6k	+3.7k	+2.3k	+7.9k	+5.3k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£6.91 †	-£1.20 †	-£7.38 †	-£0.48 †	+£1.95 †	-£16 †	-£3.60 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£40 †	-£28 †	+£33 †	-£31 †	-£43 †	-£46 †	-£14 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£21 †	+£51 †	-£62 †	+£10 †	-£43 †	+£21 †	-£61 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£5.18 †	-£105 †	-£9.59 †	-£6.34 †	+£250 †	+£11 †	+£21 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£15 †	+£3.29 †	-£39 †	-£20 †	-£350 †	-£69 †	-£37 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.34 †	+£7.32 †	+£18 †	-£13 †	-£1.22 †	+£14 †	-£3.42 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£1.42 †	+£8.55 †	+£3.95 †	-£7.80 †	-£8.45 †	+£19 †	+£18 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	+£19 †	-£3.36 †	+£38 †	-£57 †	+£39 †	+£31 †	-£5.88 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	-£38 †	-£18 †	-£52 †	+£41 †	-£107 †	-£97 †	-£6.36 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£5.51 †	-£18 †	+£7.68 †	-£10 †	+£25 †	+£11 †	+£23 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£2.6m	-£3.3m	-£5.4m	-£5.7m	-£5.7m	-£5.9m	-£5.6m
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£0.3m	-£0.4m	-£0.7m	-£0.8m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£0.9m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£0.9m	+£0.9m	+£3.3m	+£5.6m	+£4.7m	+£3.8m	+£60,965
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	+£0	+£18	+£4	+£18	-£3,115	+£0	-£1,602
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£0.3m	-£0.6m	-£0.9m	-£0.7m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.3m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£380	-£28	+£142	+£36	-£108	+£305	+£223
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£405	+£403	-£361	+£144	-£84	-£376	-£214
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£42,401	-£52,608	-£85,472	-£95,276	-£0.1m	-£0.1m	-£0.1m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£318	-£20	-£16	-£23,656	-£56,791	-£0.1m	-£0.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£1.11bn	+£1.06bn	+£1.03bn	+£958.4m	+£900.7m	+£854.1m	+£758.3m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£2.7m	-£3.8m	-£5.8m	-£6.2m	-£6.3m	-£6.5m	-£6.3m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£0.3m	-£0.4m	-£0.7m	-£0.8m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£0.9m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	+£1.3m	+£3.1m	+£1.6m	+£4.1m	+£2.7m	+£2.0m	+£0.5m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£0.3m	+£0.6m	+£0.9m	+£0.7m	+£0.3m	+£0.3m	+£0.3m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	-£42,179	-£53,055	-£85,046	-£95,231	-£0.1m	-£0.1m	-£0.1m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£306	+£15	+£24	+£23,669	+£56,832	+£0.1m	+£0.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	-£1.53bn	-£1.48bn	-£1.46bn	-£1.40bn	-£1.32bn	-£1.26bn	-£1.14bn

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)
Decile 2	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.1%)	-£21 (-0.1%)	-£20 (-0.1%)	-£21 (-0.1%)	-£22 (-0.1%)	-£22 (-0.1%)
Decile 3	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)	-£23 (-0.1%)	-£23 (-0.1%)	-£24 (-0.1%)	-£25 (-0.1%)	-£24 (-0.1%)
Decile 4	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£28 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£28 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)
Decile 5	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£20 (-0.0%)	-£21 (-0.0%)	-£21 (-0.0%)	-£20 (-0.0%)	-£20 (-0.0%)
Decile 6	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)
Decile 7	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)
Decile 8	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£9 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)
Decile 9	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)
Decile 10	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)
all	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	12.4%
2026-27	0.0%	12.7%
2027-28	0.0%	12.2%
2028-29	0.0%	11.6%
2029-30	0.0%	11.3%
2030-31	0.0%	10.9%
2031-32	0.0%	10.3%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 76cfc9e798	uk 2.141.5 (files 4d0b2fda524f), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	07447b138c83	0d0426ee9e38	911.34s
head	#2336 merged into main 8d8cb4244c	uk 2.141.5 (files 59d949277345), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	07447b138c83	0d0426ee9e38	916.2s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.22bn	£318.89bn	£336.30bn	£351.39bn	£366.88bn	£384.94bn	£403.26bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,092k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,211k	3,225k	3,245k	3,265k	3,281k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.32bn	£939.12bn	£976.02bn	£1,009.16bn	£1,044.72bn	£1,081.49bn	£1,122.34bn
Government spending	£536.25bn †	£550.48bn †	£556.59bn †	£563.63bn †	£572.17bn †	£581.40bn †	£590.59bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£363.07bn †	£388.64bn †	£419.43bn †	£445.52bn †	£472.55bn †	£500.09bn †	£531.75bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.45bn	£942.25bn	£979.15bn	£1,012.29bn	£1,047.85bn	£1,084.62bn	£1,125.47bn
household_tax	£496.10bn	£522.54bn	£548.28bn	£570.41bn	£592.46bn	£616.83bn	£643.54bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.28bn	£514.41bn	£539.93bn	£561.37bn	£583.18bn	£607.28bn	£633.64bn
gov_spending	£536.25bn †	£550.48bn †	£556.59bn †	£563.63bn †	£572.17bn †	£581.40bn †	£590.59bn †
household_benefits	£536.25bn †	£550.48bn †	£556.59bn †	£563.63bn †	£572.17bn †	£581.40bn †	£590.59bn †
gov_balance	£366.20bn †	£391.77bn †	£422.56bn †	£448.65bn †	£475.68bn †	£503.22bn †	£534.88bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,657.94bn †	£1,706.44bn †	£1,738.10bn †	£1,772.27bn †	£1,808.52bn †	£1,850.22bn †	£1,901.98bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.49bn	£1,513.22bn	£1,545.30bn	£1,578.33bn	£1,612.50bn	£1,651.62bn	£1,702.08bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.0%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.6%	12.3%	12.1%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.0%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.9%	14.4%	14.7%	14.3%	14.3%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.6%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.3%	31.3%	31.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.6%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.4%	12.8%	12.8%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,057k	10,437k	10,858k	10,961k	11,093k	11,222k	11,232k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,315k	6,320k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,545k	14,222k	14,704k	14,952k	15,166k	15,406k	15,539k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,767k	4,515k	4,643k	4,699k	4,756k	4,835k	4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,278k	8,254k	8,667k	8,845k	8,995k	9,142k	9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,500k	1,453k	1,394k	1,408k	1,416k	1,428k	1,439k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,780k	11,464k	11,541k	11,665k	11,708k	11,832k	11,876k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,514k	3,525k	3,542k	3,554k	3,564k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,365k	6,466k	6,530k	6,636k	6,627k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,786k	1,766k	1,661k	1,673k	1,636k	1,643k	1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,921k	14,716k	14,925k	15,000k	15,189k	15,296k	15,451k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,889k	4,714k	4,697k	4,717k	4,766k	4,799k	4,856k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,435k	8,491k	8,758k	8,869k	9,006k	9,075k	9,161k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,597k	1,511k	1,470k	1,414k	1,417k	1,422k	1,435k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3066	0.3073	0.3079	0.3085	0.3095

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,700 †	£17,996 †	£17,934 †	£17,991 †	£18,328 †	£18,506 †	£18,682 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,323 †	£29,012 †	£28,705 †	£28,983 †	£29,331 †	£29,734 †	£30,315 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,628 †	£35,953 †	£36,445 †	£37,018 †	£37,220 †	£37,971 †	£38,595 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,334 †	£40,803 †	£41,933 †	£42,832 †	£43,445 †	£43,857 †	£44,976 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,858 †	£46,155 †	£46,892 †	£47,426 †	£48,030 †	£49,185 †	£50,040 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,328 †	£50,291 †	£51,037 †	£52,160 †	£52,940 †	£54,238 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,320 †	£57,593 †	£58,476 †	£59,442 †	£60,156 †	£61,655 †	£62,905 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,270 †	£70,361 †	£71,677 †	£72,817 †	£74,376 †	£75,734 †	£77,568 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,636 †	£81,991 †	£83,195 †	£84,490 †	£86,030 †	£87,652 †	£89,952 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,661 †	£120,515 †	£122,455 †	£124,599 †	£126,993 †	£129,690 †	£132,901 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.21bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.29bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (W7, session local_94f3ee40).

• Head: fa27e494826858baf2732cdb00efefad4941f2ea, ready for review.
• Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at this exact head (delta review of fa27e4948, after an APPROVE of 4e495b77e). Reviews: ~/reviews/w7-uk-defects-2026-10-11/reviews/review-2336-r1.md and review-2336-2340-r2.md. Its two P3 wording notes are applied in the body.
• CI: gh pr checks all pass at this head, including the four Python shards, YAML and Aggregate impact. GitHub reports it MERGEABLE.
• Impact (real runs, uk-data 1.58.1): in the body. State Pension falls £352.7m in 2025-26 and £781.9m in 2030-31, with no change in the 2024-25 data year. W3's CI report agrees to £0.1m.
• Depends on: nothing. Dependent: Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80 #2340 (State Pension age addition (25p a week at 80, SSCBA 1992 s.79) is not modelled #2139) is stacked on this branch; merge this first.
• Decision: none. The plan session ruled this matches the statute (SI 2026/148 arts 4(3), 6(3)(b)), so it merges on gates.
• Follow-ups: rulespec-uk#457 (Axiom parity, queued). uk-triple-lock has been told about the reform-behaviour change; its engine pins additional_state_pension, so keep the name.
• Merge with a merge commit, per the hub's gates.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, as 6a674987b at 20:32Z 10/21, from the owner session's hand-off (W7, local_94f3ee40, hand-off line 88). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head fa27e494826858baf2732cdb00efefad4941f2ea.

• Change: additional State Pension and protected payments are uprated by September CPI (3.8% for 2026-27 under SI 2026/148 arts 4(3) and 6(3)(b)), not by the full rates' rise. Fixes Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by CPI, not the flat rate #1941.
• Reviews: GPT-6.1 Sol APPROVE at 4e495b77e (r1). Its delta review APPROVE at this exact head fa27e4948 (r2) found the P2 body notes resolved. Evidence: ~/reviews/w7-uk-defects-2026-10-11/reviews/review-2336-r1.md and review-2336-2340-r2.md. The plan session ruled this matches the statute, so no Max decision is needed.
• Tests: CI is green at this head: four Python shards, YAML, Lint, docs, Aggregate impact and Fix evidence. The property tests fail on main and pass on head (23 failed, 8 passed on main; 31/31 on head). The merge queue re-tests against current main.
• Impact (in the body, uk-data 1.58.1): State Pension falls £352.7m in 2025-26, rising to £781.9m in 2030-31, with no change in the 2024-25 data year. The government balance improves by £258m to £547m. W3's CI report agrees to £0.1m.
• Follow-ups: Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80 #2340 is stacked on this branch and has its own REQUEST_CHANGES (carer property test). rulespec-uk#457 (Axiom parity) is queued. uk-triple-lock pins additional_state_pension, and it has been told about the reform-behaviour change. The Budget pair's locked model does not include this fix; the hub has told the Budget coordinator.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code