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Count the State Pension as step-one tax credit income - #2057

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 2, 2026 •

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Fixes #2052

State Pension is step-one pension income for tax credits. It now shares the single £300 disregard per claim with other step-one income, rather than being counted in full as step-two social-security income. Depending on other income and the final loss floor, current-year tax credit income can fall by up to £300.

The statutory route is SI 2002/2006 reg. 3(1) (the steps), reg. 5(1)(a) and ITEPA 2003 s. 577 (State Pension is pension income), and reg. 7(2) (exclude that pension from social-security income). The shared social_security_income variable is unchanged.

Merged current main using a merge commit. #2034 is already merged (7d202ab9) and is included; this PR is now based directly on main. Its current-year/passported-income separation and the childcare criteria are retained.

The conflict resolution preserves subsequent main fixes:

  • Count only claimant/partner income; a child's own income and losses do not count.
  • Count property income after finance costs.
  • Deduct claimant trading losses and retain the final zero floor.
  • Retain Scottish Carer Supplement in step two. Reg. 7(1)(ab) includes payments under section-28 regulations, and SSI 2023/302 reg. 14A makes it a component under those regulations. The separate disregard for a supplement to section-70 Carer's Allowance is not extended to this distinct Carer Support Payment component. It starts in 2026, after tax credit awards end.

The previous-formula reform in the property tests now differs only in State Pension classification and preserves main’s other income rules. A new regression checks child income exclusion, finance costs, claimant trading losses and the zero floor. The nine existing hand-computed YAML cases cover the disregard, a joint claim, CTC/WTC, Pension Credit and the childcare income boundary. No new edits to simulation.py beyond the merge from main.

The "Pension Credit is paid without the passport" case in tax_credits_state_pension_step_one.yaml supplied pension_credit_earnings of £2,340, already net of the SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI para 5 disregard. Main now deducts that disregard (pension_credit_earnings_disregard, read at pension_credit_income.py:71), so it came off twice. Pension Credit income with the test lifted fell to £11,115, below the £11,343.80 guarantee, and the passport set applicable income to nil. The case now enters the £2,600 employment income gross, as tax_credits_pension_credit_passport.yaml already requires. It also pins the £260 disregard and £10,987.55 Pension Credit income. Its outputs are unchanged: £8,900 income, £2,047.55 WTC, £356.25 Pension Credit.

Validation at 3008a29 (main c65bced merged), local, locked venv:

Tests Result
test_tax_credits_state_pension_step_one_properties.py (-n 4, shrinking off, same examples) 3 passed
Tax credits YAML (dir, Pension Credit passport and State Pension step-one files), Pension Credit YAML and DfE YAML 616 passed

uvx ruff format --check . passes. The full YAML suite was not run locally; CI runs it.

Open items: CI and hub independent review. Historical Enhanced FRS impacts from the original PR were not rerun; no microsimulation or dataset build started. PR remains draft; the hub owns landing.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/tax_credits_state_pension_step_one.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/test_tax_credits_state_pension_step_one_properties.py::test_state_pension_is_step_one_income

axiom: PENDING from the original PR.

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 2, 2026 08:06
SI 2002/2006 reg 3(1) puts pension income (reg 5(1)) in step one, where only
the excess over £300 counts. Reg 5(1)(a) covers "any pension to which section
577 ... of ITEPA applies", which is the State Pension (ITEPA 2003 s.577(1)),
and reg 7(2) takes it out of social security income. The model counted it in
step two through social_security_income, so a pensioner whose other step-one
income was under £300 had tax credit income overstated by up to £300.

tax_credits_current_year_income now lists step-one income and reg 7 social
security income explicitly. YAML cases are computed by hand from the law;
Hypothesis properties check the income against the law, against the previous
formula (applied as a reform), and the award bounds that follow.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Half the drawn adults now have no private pension, interest, dividends or
property income, where the State Pension disregard changes the income.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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#2034 (the State Pension Credit passport), which this PR was stacked on, merged on 2026-10-13 at 07:35Z through the merge queue, as 7d202ab9f. GitHub deleted its branch and retargeted this PR to main. Merging origin/main into this branch will bring in #2034 from main.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis

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Adoption hand-off for the UK hub

Head: 15f8ce10b411774237ca790543f8d7fdf2d84fe6; merged current main d62d5f3b6d66c0a9657d26cca66bc5e6a5b7dd00 with a merge commit. Original author retained. #2034 (7d202ab9) is included; the branch is based directly on main.

Changed: resolved tax_credits_current_year_income.py with State Pension in step one, while retaining claimant-only income, property finance costs, claimant trading losses, and the zero floor. Preserved #2034’s current-year/passported-income and childcare structure. Updated the differential test reform to current main and added a preservation regression. No new simulation.py changes beyond main’s merge.

Legal reading: kept Scottish Carer Supplement in step-two income because reg. 7(1)(ab) covers its section-28 basis; the separate supplement disregard expressly concerns section-70 Carer's Allowance. This preserves main and cannot affect pre-2026 awards. Sources are linked in the body.

Tests: 0 runtime tests run; full YAML suite not rerun. Required gate failed repeatedly (latest load1 31.18; free disk 50.93 decimal GB from os.statvfs; minimum 55 GB). Changed Python lint passed; repository-wide uvx ruff format --check . passed, 1,943 files. The historical 1,584 passed / 2 failed result is stale; #2034’s childcare fixes are included but unvalidated at this head.

Open items: full YAML suite and State Pension properties with -n 2 once disk permits; CI; hub independent review. Historical survey impacts not rerun. No microsimulation/dataset build launched. Remains draft; not merged or closed.

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github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base c65bced644 against head 29bbcbca67, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main c65bced644 uk 2.148.3 (files d7572c3e5c6c), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 31784e87dc6a d4c1e9f08160 1533.8s
head #2057 merged into main 29bbcbca67 uk 2.148.3 (files ab8f225da713), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 31784e87dc6a d4c1e9f08160 1535.71s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,226k 3,245k 3,264k 3,281k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
Government spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.39bn £567.58bn £589.79bn £614.24bn £640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £537.04bn £558.54bn £580.51bn £604.69bn £631.05bn
gov_spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
household_benefits £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
gov_balance £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.67bn † £1,705.92bn † £1,739.31bn † £1,773.51bn † £1,809.65bn † £1,851.24bn † £1,902.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,544.54bn £1,577.63bn £1,611.73bn £1,650.77bn £1,701.20bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.8% 22.0% 21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.2% 31.3% 31.7% 32.2% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.1% 31.0% 31.0% 31.1% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,858k 11,007k 11,103k 11,238k 11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,267k 3,285k 3,319k 3,371k 3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,071k 6,182k 6,234k 6,302k 6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,519k 1,540k 1,550k 1,566k 1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 14,956k 15,179k 15,479k 15,741k 15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,709k 4,752k 4,834k 4,930k 4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,796k 8,942k 9,125k 9,271k 9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,452k 1,485k 1,520k 1,539k 1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,528k 11,641k 11,552k 11,677k 11,832k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,543k 3,556k 3,491k 3,522k 3,593k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,359k 6,462k 6,453k 6,536k 6,596k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,627k 1,623k 1,608k 1,619k 1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,915k 14,985k 15,110k 15,227k 15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,698k 4,701k 4,731k 4,765k 4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,769k 8,885k 8,981k 9,056k 9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,448k 1,398k 1,398k 1,405k 1,516k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3067 0.3074 0.3079 0.3085 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £18,026 † £18,059 † £18,395 † £18,583 † £18,743 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,134 † £29,089 † £28,825 † £29,239 † £29,564 † £29,945 † £30,476 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,264 † £36,779 † £37,076 † £37,626 † £38,511 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £42,036 † £42,777 † £43,509 † £44,366 † £44,673 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £46,119 † £46,804 † £47,819 † £48,805 † £49,921 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,906 † £51,593 † £52,132 † £53,429 † £54,829 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,356 † £57,547 † £58,429 † £59,170 † £60,256 † £60,799 † £62,484 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,736 † £73,017 † £74,372 † £75,880 † £77,602 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,308 † £84,528 † £86,191 † £87,657 † £90,676 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,670 † £126,895 † £129,221 † £132,115 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 23, 2026 03:23
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…es once

The "Pension Credit is paid without the passport" case supplied
pension_credit_earnings of £2,340, already net of the SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI
para 5 disregard (£5 a week). Main now deducts that disregard from the
claimant's £2,600 employment income (pension_credit_earnings_disregard,
read by pension_credit_income), so it came off twice: Pension Credit
income with the test lifted fell to £11,115, below the £11,343.80
guarantee, and the passport set tax credit applicable income to nil. The
override is removed, as tax_credits_pension_credit_passport.yaml already
requires, and the case pins the £260 disregard and £10,987.55 Pension
Credit income; its outputs are unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Backlog F hand-off (UK hub build job, 2026-10-23)

Head: 3008a29208029be97868e1f7b03a8777cf69c2cb. I merged origin/main at c65bced64 with a merge commit (1143786d0), then added one test-only commit (3008a2920). There is no force-push and the author is unchanged.

Change. This fixes the blocking finding in the tax3 review. In tax_credits_state_pension_step_one.yaml, the case "Where Pension Credit is paid without the passport, it falls by the WTC gained" supplied pension_credit_earnings: 2_340, already net of the SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI para 5 disregard. Main now deducts the £260 from the £2,600 employment income itself (pension_credit_earnings_disregard). The disregard therefore came off twice, and I checked this in the model:

  • With the override: Pension Credit income was £11,115 with the test lifted, below the £11,343.80 guarantee. The passport applied, so tax_credits_applicable_income was £0.
  • With gross earnings: Pension Credit income is £10,987.55 and applicable income is £8,900.

The override is removed, following the convention already stated in tax_credits_pension_credit_passport.yaml. The comment now explains the disregard, and the case pins pension_credit_earnings_disregard: 260 and pension_credit_income: 10_987.55. Its intent and outputs are unchanged: £8,900 income, £2,047.55 WTC, £356.25 Pension Credit, and the £123 of extra WTC is £123 less Guarantee Credit. No formula changed.

Citation: the body already gives the legal route as SI 2002/2006 reg 3(1), reg 5(1)(a) (with ITEPA s.577) and reg 7(2), and does not cite reg 4 for the State Pension. The code's one "reg 4" is for employment income, in the step-two comment, which is correct. No citation change was needed.

Tests at 3008a29 (local, foreground):

Tests Result
test_tax_credits_state_pension_step_one_properties.py (-n 4) 3 passed
tax_credits_state_pension_step_one.yaml 9 passed
Tax credits, Pension Credit and DfE YAML, together 616 passed

Hypothesis shrinking was off for the property run, with the same examples. Ruff format check passes. I did not run the full YAML suite locally; CI runs it.

Impact: the earlier aggregate impact report showed no household change in 2025–26 to 2031–32, after tax credits closed. The historical Enhanced FRS impact was not re-run.

Open: CI at this head and the hub's independent review. The PR is still a draft; I have not merged it or marked it ready.

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Tax credit income counts the State Pension in step two, missing the £300 step-one disregard (SI 2002/2006 regs 3, 5(1)(a), 7(2))

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