Split pension-age Housing Benefit allowances by when State Pension age was attained

[MaxGhenis]

Summary

Since 1 April 2021 the pension-age Housing Benefit personal allowance has had two rates. The rate depends on when the claimant, or a couple's members, attained State Pension age. PolicyEngine UK applied the higher rate to every pension-age benefit unit, so it overstated the applicable amount by £18.00 a week (£20.10 for a couple) in 2026-27 for everyone who reached State Pension age on or after that date.

2026-27, £ a week	Attained State Pension age before 1 April 2021	On or after 1 April 2021
Single claimant or lone parent	256.00 (para 1(1)(b))	238.00 (para 1(1)(c))
Couple	383.35 (para 1(2)(b): one or both members)	363.25 (para 1(2)(c): both members)

Source: SI 2006/214 Sch 3 para 1, as amended by SI 2021/188, with amounts set by the Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026 (SI 2026/148). The Northern Ireland regulations, SR 2006/406 Sch 4 para 1, carry the same rates. The lower rate equals the Pension Credit standard minimum guarantee. SI 2021/188's explanatory note describes the gap as the "savings credit uplift", kept only for people who already had it.

Reported example (2026): a 70-year-old with a £30,000 State Pension. The report's figures (£656.08 at the higher rate, £47.68 at the lower) included a £365.20 income disregard that main has since removed (#1908: with no earnings there is no earnings disregard). On main's income rules, with £9,000 private rent, HB is £418.70 at the higher rate and nil here. As a council tenant with £12,000 rent, HB is £3,418.70 at the higher rate and £2,810.30 here. The difference is 0.65 × (256 − 238) × 52 = £608.40.

Builds on #1899 (merged), which sets State Pension age from date of birth: the cohort test needs the day each person attained State Pension age. The DWP rates PR #1925 (merged) set the 2025-26 higher rates to the enacted £244.40 / £366.00.

Changes

• state_pension_age_date (new, Person): the day the person attains State Pension age, written as a YYYYMMDD number. It reads the date of birth as state_pension_age does (birth_instant, so a given date_of_birth is used) and applies the same timetable, using integer date arithmetic so no rounding can move a day. state_pension_age itself is unchanged (main's version).
• housing_benefit_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff (new, BenUnit): whether any member attained State Pension age before the cutoff.
  • Couples follow para 1(2)(b): "one member or both members". The regulations don't cover a couple where one member hasn't reached State Pension age and the other reached it after the cutoff; this PR gives them the lower rate, following SI 2021/188's explanatory note ("where one or more members ... attained pensionable age before 1st April 2021, the benefit unit will continue to receive the uplift").
  • Before April 2021 there was one pension-age rate. The variable is true for every unit then, and the cutoff parameter only starts on 2021-04-01.
• Parameters in gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances:
  • pension_age_cutoff: 20210401.
  • {single,couple,lone_parent}.aged_from_cutoff: the (c) rates for 2021-22 to 2026-27, each year cited to its source. 2021-22 comes from SI 2021/188 reg 2(3). 2022-23 to 2025-26 come from the point-in-time Sch 3, set by the Up-rating Orders SI 2022/292, 2023/316, 2024/242 and 2025/295. 2026-27 comes from SI 2026/148.
  • They are uprated like the existing aged rates.
• housing_benefit_applicable_amount picks the (b) or (c) rate per unit.
• Council Tax Reduction (council_tax_reduction_applicable_amount) reuses the HB allowances:
  • England's pensioner scheme has the same split and amounts (SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 para 1, amended by SI 2021/29 for financial years from 2021-22), so England now splits too.
  • Scotland (SSI 2012/319 Sch 1 para 2) and Wales (SI 2013/3029 Sch 2 para 1) have one pension-age rate, the higher one, and are unchanged.
• The HB docs page explains the split and charts the lower rates.

This PR doesn't touch the existing aged files. Their 2025-26 values and references are corrected in the companion DWP rates PR, #1925.

Invariants (tested)

For every pension-age single person or couple, in every year:

1. Differential against the statute. The allowance is the higher rate exactly when a member's attainment day is before 1 April 2021, where that day is read from the Pensions Act 1995 timetable by Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899's independent reference_attainment_day. Otherwise it's the lower rate. This is checked for single people of each sex born every fifth day from 1938, and on both sides of 1 April 1955, in each year 2019-2030. It is also checked for random singles and couples, mixed-age included, under Hypothesis.
2. Bounds. The lower rate is below the higher rate in every year 2021-2040, including uprated years. Lone parents get the single rates.
3. Monotonicity. Among pension-age single people of one sex in one year, an earlier date of birth never gives a lower allowance.
4. One rate before April 2021. Every pension-age unit gets the higher rate in 2019 and 2020.
5. Council Tax Reduction. England's pension-age CTR allowance equals HB's. Scotland's and Wales's equal the one higher rate. This is tested with Hypothesis over regions and units.
6. Attainment date. state_pension_age_date equals the statute's day for every birth date in Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899's differential set, in each of its 13 years. It is also invariant to the year the person is placed from. The age it implies equals state_pension_age (a differential test in 2021, 2026 and 2030).

YAML tests cover:

• the boundaries: attained on 31 March 2021 vs 1 April 2021, for singles, couples, a lone parent and mixed-age couples (the mixed-age cases set the pension-age switch, as for a protected couple with no Universal Credit, since main now puts a mixed-age couple on Universal Credit in the working-age tables);
• 2021-22 and 2026-27 amounts;
• the reported household, and a council tenant with the same income;
• tests from main whose arithmetic assumes the higher rate (Pension Credit carer income, England CTR, including the claimant-family and Carer Support Payment cases) now use pensioners aged 72, who reached State Pension age in 2019, so they keep testing what they were written for.
• CTR in England, Scotland and Wales;
• state_pension_age_date at each rule of the timetable, including rule (7A).

Impact (Enhanced FRS 2024-25)

These are two real runs over the same dataset, fiscal years 2025-26 to 2030-31, on policyengine-core 3.33.2: main (4dfc979, which includes the DWP rates fix #1925, so the 2025-26 higher rates are the enacted £244.40 / £366.00) and this PR (7e2c1f0). Nothing is scaled or interpolated.

Fiscal year	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31
Housing Benefit (£m)	-7.4	-7.7	-10.3	-13.0	-18.2	-43.3
Council Tax Reduction, England (£m)	-2.2	-2.3	-2.5	-3.4	-4.3	-5.0
Household net income (£m)	-9.6	-10.1	-12.8	-16.4	-22.5	-48.3
Pension-age HB units in the later cohort (k)	209	215	231	246	282	384
Benefit units with lower HB (k)	25.8	27.3	31.3	38.2	64.5	99.0
Mean HB change among them (£ a year)	-288	-283	-329	-341	-283	-437
Pensioners in poverty AHC (k)	+1.6	+0.1	+0.5	+1.7	+2.0	+2.4
Pensioners in poverty BHC (k)	+0.0	+0.0	+0.5	+1.2	+1.2	+0.5

The allowance only changes HB for a claim on the taper. In 2026-27, 215k pension-age HB units are in the later cohort; about 27k of them get less HB, and the other 187k get the same HB at either rate. In the microdata, #1899 spreads birthdays within each year of age, so 48.4% of 71-year-olds in 2026-27 attained State Pension age before 1 April 2021. The statute implies 48%: those born 7 October 1954 to 31 March 1955. Totals grow as later cohorts make up more of the pension-age population. Pension-age HB levels on this dataset await the HB calibration rebuild after #1901 (policyengine-uk-data#490), and the size of this change scales with those levels.

Axiom

axiom: uk/regulation/uksi/2006/214/schedule/3 queued TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#108 | uk/regulation/uksi/2012/2885/schedule/2 queued TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#378

• The HB pipeline (uk/policies/housing_benefit_composed_entitlement_pipeline.yaml) encodes only the (b) rates, from 2026-04-01, and has no cohort input. rulespec-uk#108 is now dispatch-ready with the verbatim law, required outputs and companion tests.
• England's CTR Schedule 2 is not encoded; it's queued in the issue named above.
• Both citations are in the served corpus with the split and the 2026-27 amounts. The signed encodes are OpenAI-billed and need approval.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/housing_benefit_pension_age_personal_allowance.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_carer_income.yaml::Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction no longer fall where Guarantee Credit used to end for a couple whose partner receives Carer's Allowance, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_carer_income.yaml::Net income rises where Guarantee Credit now ends for a couple whose partner receives Carer's Allowance, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_carer_income.yaml::Pension-age Housing Benefit counts Carer Support Payment but not the Scottish Carer Supplement, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/state_pension_age_date.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/claimant_family_scheme.yaml::Oxford, working-age head and pension-age sharer each claim under their own scheme

[MaxGhenis]

Response to the independent review (Opus, subfleet job 20260930-083145-review-1913), addressed in f159ff4:

1. 2025-26 higher rates wrong in aged.yaml (should-fix). Agreed. The fix belongs to the companion DWP rates PR, Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925. It sets the 2025-26 (b) rates to the enacted £244.40 / £366.00 (and 2020-21 to £187.75 / £280.85), cites SI 2006/214 in place of 2006/213, and tests the values against the published tables. This PR keeps the lower (c) rates, now also checked against a hard-coded statute table for 2021-22 to 2026-27 (test_lower_rates_and_cutoff_match_the_statute). I re-ran the impact on a base that includes Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925. The 2025-26 mean loss is now £208 (it was £173 on the uncorrected base), and totals move by less than £1m a year. The PR body table is the corrected one.
2. "The boundary cohort always gets the lower rate" (should-fix): the data refute this. In simulations built from data, Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899 spreads birthdays within each single year of age with a weight-stratified draw. months_since_last_birthday is not the mid-year default there. On the Enhanced FRS, 48.4% of 71-year-olds in 2026-27 attained State Pension age before 1 April 2021 (state_pension_age_date < 20210401); the statute implies 48% (born 7 October 1954 to 31 March 1955). Household situations with a whole age use the middle of the year of age, which is Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899's documented default; a fractional age or months_since_last_birthday pins the date. I reworded the YAML header ("measured at 6 October") so it doesn't read as "born on 6 October".
3. Mixed-age couples (should-fix). Done. The HB comment now says that in law this couple can't be on pension-age HB, since mixed-age couples keep it only under the savings for awards before 15 May 2019 (SI 2019/37 art 4), when the older member had already reached State Pension age. It also explains that PE can still reach it through a reported continuing award. The CTR formula has its own note for England's rows (2) and (5). Added a CTR YAML test for this couple in England (lower rate, £363.25).
4. Which definition of "pensionable age" (nit). The definition is SSCBA 1992 s.122(1) (Pensions Act 1995 Sch 4 para 1), which the Interpretation Act 1978 s.11 applies to these regulations. The Interpretation Act's Schedule 1 doesn't define it. Now cited in the variable.
5. Date precision (nit). Added a comment that dates are compared as YYYYMMDD integers, which are exact.
6. Country lookup (nit). Now benunit.household("country", period), as in the CTR award formula.
7. Narrow property tests (nit). Added the hard-coded statute table test (invariant 5). The differential and Hypothesis tests compare against Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899's independent reference_attainment_day.
8. Unverified figures. Re-run and verified. The 47.68 in the YAML is a passing test. For the "why small" explanation: of 215k later-cohort pension-age HB units in 2026-27, 88% have Guarantee Credit, 95% have applicable income at or below the applicable amount, and the remaining 10.5k tapered claims are exactly the units with lower HB. All three figures come from a run.

Tests after the changes: the cohort property file (40), #1899's attainment-date differential (13 years), and the HB, CTR, PC and SPA YAML folders (130 in the last run) all pass.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Reviewed: not ready (stacked on #1899, no CI). The code itself is approve-with-nits.

The split matches the law. HB has the (b) and (c) rates in SI 2006/214 Sch 3 para 1, and Northern Ireland's SR 2006/406 Sch 4 Part I has the same rates. England's CTR splits the same way (SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 para 1, amended by SI 2021/29 for schemes from 2021-22). Scotland (SSI 2012/319 Sch 1 para 2) and Wales (WSI 2013/3029 Sch 2 para 1) keep the single £256 / £383.35 rate.

1. Should fix: the base is state-pension-age-67-phase-in (Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899, still open and behind main), so no CI has run on this branch. Rebase onto main once Set State Pension age from date of birth, including the rise to 67 #1899 merges, and get CI green.
2. Should fix (coordination): merging this first breaks 4 YAML cases in Disregard guarantee credit recipients' income and capital in pensioner council tax reduction #1909 and 1 in Give pension-age HB and CTR the severe disability premium Pension Credit uses #1938, all with 70-year-old claimants. The fixes belong in those PRs; say so in the merge order.
3. Nit: housing_benefit_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff.py:49. In the household calculator, a whole age of 71 in 2026 gives an attainment date of 6 April 2021, so that age always gets the lower rate, although about 48% of that cohort attained before the cutoff. Add this to the variable's documentation, and point users to months_since_last_birthday.
4. Nit: council_tax_reduction_applicable_amount.py:31-33 gives the reason "as for Housing Benefit". But the pensioner test in SI 2012/2885 reg 3 has no 2019-style mixed-age restriction, only the exclusion for claimants on IS, JSA, ESA or UC, so this gap in the law affects real claimants there. Say that the lower rate is a choice.
5. Nit: couple/aged_from_cutoff.yaml:7 (346.60) differs from the repo's 2025 couple minimum guarantee (338.61). So "the lower rate equals the minimum guarantee" holds only once Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925 lands.

Verified: I read the current Sch 3 para 1 HB text and the England, Scotland, Wales and NI equivalents, and checked the SI 2021/29 and SI 2021/188 commencement. Tests at f159ff4: 32 new YAML; 77 pytest (cohorts and State Pension age); 174 YAML across the HB, CTR and Pension Credit folders. All pass. CI: none reported.

[MaxGhenis]

Follow-up review (GPT-6.1 Sol, subfleet job 20260930-114706-rereview2-1925-1913) at f159ff4:

• Resolved: findings 2-6, plus finding 8 with limits. It independently reproduced the microdata figure (48.39% of 71-year-olds in 2026-27 attained State Pension age before the cutoff). All 48 impact-table cells reconcile with the saved runs. It ran the cohort pytest file (40 passed) and the HB and CTR YAML folders (76 and 43 passed). It found no behavioural regression.
• Partly resolved: findings 1 and 7.
  • This head still has the old 2025-26 higher rates (£239.20 / £357.98). Their correction, to £244.40 / £366.00, is in Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925.
  • The higher-rate expectations are still read from the parameters, so no test catches that.

Plan once #1899 and #1925 have merged:

1. Rebase this PR onto main.
2. Add a hard-coded statute table for the higher rates, 2021-22 to 2026-27, alongside the existing lower-rate one.
3. Re-run CI and the impact on that single tree.

The current impact table already uses a base that includes #1925's rates (stated in the body).

[vahid-ahmadi]

Fine once main is merged in and CI's Test job is green. The law and the code are right.

@MaxGhenis, round 2, at 7e2c1f0d. Since my 1 October review (at f159ff4), #1899, #1925, #1909 and #1938 have all merged, and the branch now sits on main. My round-1 items 1, 2 and 5 are resolved:

• the branch has a real base and CI runs;
• the #1909 and #1938 fixtures are on main with 72-year-olds;
• the 2025 lower couple rate (£346.60) now matches main's minimum guarantee.

1. should (CI). The Test job at this head fails one case: test_dataframe_dataset.py::test_an_exported_frame_loads_back_and_exports_itself. The re-exported frame has 38 columns, where 18 were expected: it gains *_id__2026 to *_id__2029. The same example also fails on the base commit (main 4dfc979f) without this PR. It passes on main 714b1438 and on this head merged with main, so this comes from the base, not this PR. git merge-tree against main is clean. Merging main in and re-running CI should clear it.

2. nit (still open from round 1) housing_benefit_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff.py:7-14. In the household calculator a whole age with no months_since_last_birthday places the birthday at the middle of the year of age. So a woman aged 71 in 2026 gets an attainment date of 6 April 2021 and the lower rate (£238.00), although about half that cohort attained before the cutoff. state_pension_age_date mentions months_since_last_birthday; this variable's documentation should say the whole-age result too.

3. nit (still open from round 1) council_tax_reduction_applicable_amount.py:46-48. "as for Housing Benefit" reads as if the law settles it. For England's CTR it doesn't. SI 2012/2885 reg 3 has no 2019-style mixed-age bar, so a pensioner couple where one member is under pensionable age and the other attained it after 1 April 2021 is a real case. Sch 2 para 1 rows (2) and (5) don't cover it. Say the lower rate is a modelling choice.

4. nit. docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/housing-benefit.ipynb is also changed by #1910 and #2089. Whichever merges second will need a notebook merge.

What I checked

• I read SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 para 1 as revised (SI 2026/27 amounts: rows (1)/(4) £256.00/£238.00, rows (2)/(5) £383.35/£363.25).
• I checked the aged_from_cutoff values for 2021-22 to 2026-27 against main's minimum guarantee for those years. They match.
• I hand-checked by date of birth:
  • The YAML boundary cases: 71 years and 6.19 months at 6 October 2026 is born 31 March 1955, so State Pension age at 66 falls on 31 March 2021.
  • The council tenant: 0.65 × (256 − 238) × 52 = £608.40, which equals £3,418.70 − £2,810.30.
• I set up a fresh uv env at this head and ran:
  • The 9 changed YAML files: 123 passed.
  • The 4 changed pytest files plus the dataframe test: 1,424 passed, 66 skipped, and 1 failed (the item 1 case).
  • ruff check and ruff format --check on the 8 changed Python files: clean.
• I ran the same YAML (123 passed) and the cohort and published-rates pytests (1,337 passed) on this head merged with main 714b1438.
• I made housing_benefit_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff always true. 11 of the 22 new HB and CTR allowance cases then fail, so the tests catch the change.
• I ran the dataframe case on the base 4dfc979f, on this head, on main and on the merged tree (item 1).
• No overlap with #1820, #1855, #1864, #2184, #2187, #2189, #2193 or #2382.
• I couldn't check: CI after a main merge, or a dataset re-run of the impact table.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base e2ea328931 against head eae3bbcd54, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 4 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£18,016	£17,990	-£26
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,423k	1,431k	+7.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,423k	1,431k	+7.6k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2030-31	1,411k	1,418k	+7.1k

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Housing Benefit	-£6.0m	-£7.0m	-£9.7m	-£11.4m	-£15.8m	-£17.3m	-£17.6m
Council Tax Reduction	-£1.8m	-£2.5m	-£3.1m	-£3.7m	-£5.0m	-£6.2m	-£7.7m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Housing Benefit	0	-249	-269	-270	-271	-272	-273
Council Tax Reduction	-2.7k	-2.3k	-2.6k	-3.5k	-1.4k	-2.2k	-3.3k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	-£7.8m †	-£9.5m †	-£12.8m †	-£15.1m †	-£20.8m †	-£23.6m †	-£25.3m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£7.8m †	+£9.5m †	+£12.8m †	+£15.1m †	+£20.8m †	+£23.6m †	+£25.3m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	-£7.8m †	-£9.5m †	-£12.8m †	-£15.1m †	-£20.8m †	-£23.6m †	-£25.3m †
household_benefits	-£7.8m †	-£9.5m †	-£12.8m †	-£15.1m †	-£20.8m †	-£23.6m †	-£25.3m †
gov_balance	+£7.8m †	+£9.5m †	+£12.8m †	+£15.1m †	+£20.8m †	+£23.6m †	+£25.3m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£7.8m †	-£9.5m †	-£12.8m †	-£15.1m †	-£20.8m †	-£23.6m †	-£25.3m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£7.8m	-£9.5m	-£12.8m	-£15.1m	-£20.8m	-£23.6m	-£25.3m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.00pp	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+0.00pp	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.01pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.05pp	+0.06pp	+0.07pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.00pp	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0.00pp	0	0	0	0	0	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+0.00pp	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.03pp	+0.02pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.06pp	+0.06pp	+0.07pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+67	0	0	0	+476	+472	+474
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+67	0	0	0	+476	+472	+474
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+1.1k	+3.4k	+3.9k	+4.0k	+6.3k	+7.1k	+7.6k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	0	+7	+7	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+1.1k	+3.4k	+3.9k	+4.0k	+6.3k	+7.1k	+7.6k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+1.1k	0	+85	+86	+68	+69	+69
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+522	0	0	0	0	0	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+594	0	+85	+86	+68	+69	+69
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+3.4k	+2.2k	+4.8k	+4.0k	+6.6k	+6.5k	+7.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	0	+7	+7	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+3.4k	+2.2k	+4.8k	+4.0k	+6.6k	+6.5k	+7.6k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.07 †	-£0.08 †	-£0.06 †	-£26 †	-£0.05 †	-£0.06 †	+£0.19 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£2.37 †	-£0.44 †	-£8.51 †	+£11 †	-£3.91 †	-£1.78 †	-£3.05 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£6.24 †	+£3.83 †	+£3.94 †	+£6.07 †	-£17 †	-£9.23 †	-£7.12 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£8.36 †	+£3.83 †	+£23 †	+£14 †	+£18 †	+£19 †	+£20 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.10 †	-£2.21 †	-£9.82 †	-£0.79 †	-£0.83 †	-£1.22 †	-£1.37 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.09 †	-£3.61 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.11 †	-£2.56 †	-£2.73 †	-£2.71 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£5.26 †	+£0.37 †	+£0.37 †	+£3.70 †	+£2.15 †	+£3.78 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.02 †	-£0.04 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.12 †	-£0.15 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	-£0.01 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£33,933	+£8,774	-£58,336	-£0.1m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m
Raise higher rate by 1pp	0	+£0	+£0	0	+£0	0	+£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£46,055	+£0.2m	+£1.4m	+£1.6m	+£1.7m	+£1.7m	+£0.7m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	+£1	+£1	+£0	0	+£0	+£0	-£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£42,999	-£44,720	-£45,918	-£47,023	-£48,175	-£49,359	-£50,562
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£0	+£0	+£0	+£2	+£1	+£2	-£0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£2	-£4	-£4	-£2	+£3	+£2	+£1
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£0	0	+£0	+£0	-£0	-£0	-£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£1	-£4	-£2	-£0	-£1	+£1	-£83,661
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£9.0m	+£11.5m	+£12.1m	+£14.0m	+£15.4m	+£16.3m	+£17.3m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	0	0	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0
Decile 2	0	0	0	0	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)
Decile 3	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£3 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)
Decile 4	-£1 (-0.0%)	0	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)
Decile 5	0	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)
Decile 6	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7	0	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0
Decile 8	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9	0	0	0	0	0	0	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	0	0	0	0	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.1%
2026-27	0.0%	0.1%
2027-28	0.0%	0.1%
2028-29	0.0%	0.1%
2029-30	0.0%	0.1%
2030-31	0.0%	0.1%
2031-32	0.0%	0.1%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; components the model counts twice; population; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
• maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main e2ea328931	uk 2.139.2 (files d88d91491312), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	8f88dca3cb2d	0d0426ee9e38	929.31s
head	#1913 merged into main eae3bbcd54	uk 2.139.2 (files 118304b6a11f), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	8f88dca3cb2d	0d0426ee9e38	941.93s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.17bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.12bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.06bn	£7.04bn	£7.11bn	£7.23bn	£7.37bn	£7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£79.17bn	£83.50bn	£85.32bn	£87.08bn	£88.02bn	£89.45bn	£90.80bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.92bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,372k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,244k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,185k	3,210k	3,223k	3,244k	3,262k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.27bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£536.99bn †	£551.35bn †	£557.69bn †	£564.77bn †	£573.34bn †	£582.60bn †	£591.77bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.28bn †	£387.86bn †	£418.47bn †	£444.54bn †	£471.55bn †	£499.07bn †	£530.73bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.40bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.05bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.23bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£536.99bn †	£551.35bn †	£557.69bn †	£564.77bn †	£573.34bn †	£582.60bn †	£591.77bn †
household_benefits	£536.99bn †	£551.35bn †	£557.69bn †	£564.77bn †	£573.34bn †	£582.60bn †	£591.77bn †
gov_balance	£365.41bn †	£390.99bn †	£421.60bn †	£447.67bn †	£474.68bn †	£502.20bn †	£533.86bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,658.73bn †	£1,707.21bn †	£1,739.06bn †	£1,773.25bn †	£1,809.52bn †	£1,851.25bn †	£1,903.00bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,467.29bn	£1,513.99bn	£1,546.25bn	£1,579.31bn	£1,613.51bn	£1,652.64bn	£1,703.10bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.6%	12.3%	12.0%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%	12.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.8%	16.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.7%	23.5%	23.3%	23.2%	23.4%	23.4%	23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	15.1%	15.1%	15.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.4%	14.4%	14.3%	14.4%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.4%	21.6%	21.6%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.4%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.4%	12.8%	12.6%	12.8%	12.4%	12.3%	12.4%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,945k	11,077k	11,208k	11,216k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,297k	3,334k	3,333k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,236k	6,314k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,528k	1,543k	1,560k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,537k	14,213k	14,692k	14,932k	15,151k	15,390k	15,525k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,765k	4,513k	4,641k	4,697k	4,753k	4,833k	4,894k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,275k	8,251k	8,665k	8,841k	8,991k	9,139k	9,200k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,497k	1,449k	1,386k	1,393k	1,407k	1,418k	1,431k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,803k	11,456k	11,551k	11,643k	11,816k	11,906k	12,060k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,861k	3,538k	3,519k	3,528k	3,562k	3,588k	3,642k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,175k	6,160k	6,380k	6,474k	6,617k	6,667k	6,738k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,767k	1,758k	1,652k	1,641k	1,637k	1,651k	1,681k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,919k	14,719k	14,902k	15,065k	15,222k	15,351k	15,525k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,886k	4,714k	4,695k	4,721k	4,789k	4,814k	4,894k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,440k	8,497k	8,756k	8,890k	9,018k	9,123k	9,201k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,592k	1,509k	1,451k	1,455k	1,415k	1,414k	1,431k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3051	0.3065	0.3072	0.3077	0.3083	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,705 †	£17,995 †	£17,940 †	£17,990 †	£18,324 †	£18,521 †	£18,684 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,363 †	£29,040 †	£28,672 †	£29,013 †	£29,373 †	£29,780 †	£30,329 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,590 †	£35,852 †	£36,523 †	£37,018 †	£37,280 †	£37,913 †	£38,678 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,347 †	£40,994 †	£41,920 †	£42,644 †	£43,212 †	£43,863 †	£44,962 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,700 †	£46,049 †	£46,893 †	£47,703 †	£48,369 †	£49,299 †	£49,915 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,191 †	£49,435 †	£50,386 †	£51,100 †	£52,214 †	£53,030 †	£54,499 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,419 †	£57,616 †	£58,534 †	£59,400 †	£60,211 †	£61,612 †	£62,916 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,235 †	£70,442 †	£71,639 †	£72,963 †	£74,327 †	£75,759 †	£77,549 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,661 †	£82,010 †	£83,240 †	£84,464 †	£86,139 †	£87,751 †	£89,960 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,718 †	£120,546 †	£122,461 †	£124,622 †	£126,982 †	£129,693 †	£132,891 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.25bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.92bn	£-9.13bn	£-9.03bn	£-9.08bn	£-9.28bn	£-9.53bn	£-9.80bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn