Correct the regional childcare docs page (#1008)

changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-corrections.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Corrected the regional childcare planning page (docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md) against current law, data and main: the Scottish two-year-old, SAAS, Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP descriptions, the Childcare Grant calibration claim and the Microcosm UK geography.

docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md

@@ -14,25 +14,30 @@ and the broader [#1644 audit][issue-1644].
 
 ## What is modelled today
 
-The current childcare coverage is captured in
-[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml) (see the
-[#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows:
+The current childcare coverage is recorded in
+[`policyengine_uk/programs.yaml`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/programs.yaml),
+where [#1703](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1703)
+split the old umbrella entry into per-programme rows after the
+[#1644 audit][issue-1644]. Care to Learn and the Scottish funded ELC have
+no row yet. Coverage works as follows:
 
 - **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare
   element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (legacy, HMRC
-  administered, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see
+  administered, ended 5 April 2025, modelled under `gov/dwp/`; see
   [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)).
 - **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`):
   Universal Childcare Entitlement (15 hours for 3- and 4-year-olds),
   Extended Childcare Entitlement (working parents, now reaching down to
   children aged nine months), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (2-year-olds
-  in families on qualifying benefits or low incomes), Care to Learn,
-  Student Finance England Childcare Grant.
+  in families on qualifying benefits, or on Universal Credit or tax
+  credits with income below a limit), Care to Learn, Student Finance
+  England Childcare Grant.
 - **Scotland**: eligibility for the universal funded ELC for 3- and
-  4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`,
-  including the statutory start-date rule for 3-year-olds) and its 1,140
-  hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is attached
-  yet, so it does not reach household income.
+  4-year-olds (`scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible`, with
+  the statutory start date for 3-year-olds taken as an input,
+  `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`) and its
+  1,140 hours a year, added in [#1643][pr-1643]. No funding value is
+  attached yet, so it does not reach household income.
 - **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled.
 
 ## Proposed scope by jurisdiction
@@ -41,16 +46,25 @@ The current childcare coverage is captured in
 
 The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps:
 
-1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme
-   (vulnerable or low-income 2-year-olds under the
-   [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children)
-   (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the
-   3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on UC, tax credits or other
-   qualifying benefits.
-2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant,
-   Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students:
-   the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare
-   Grant. Income-tested.
+1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme:
+   2-year-olds who are looked after, under a kinship care order or with
+   an appointed guardian ([Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014
+   s. 47(3)][cyp-47]), or whose parent receives a qualifying benefit
+   under the [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified
+   Children) (Scotland) Order 2014][ssi-196-2014]. It would be modelled
+   the same way as the 3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on those
+   conditions. The qualifying benefits include Universal Credit with
+   earned income of up to £850 an assessment period; Child Tax Credit
+   was removed from the list from 6 April 2025 ([SSI 2025/82][ssi-82-2025]).
+2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) support for student
+   parents**: the Childcare Funds that universities and colleges pay out
+   (a Lone Parents' Childcare Grant of up to £1,215 a year, not
+   income-assessed, plus discretionary help assessed on need), the
+   closest Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare
+   Grant ([SAAS childcare fund guidance, 2026 to 2027][saas-childcare]);
+   and SAAS's income-assessed Lone Parents' Grant (up to £1,305). The
+   audit also listed SAAS's Dependants' Grant, but that supports adult
+   dependants rather than children.
 3. **Support for young parents in further education**, the role Care to
    Learn plays in England. The [Education Maintenance Allowance][scot-ema]
    still runs in Scotland for 16- to 19-year-olds, applied for through
@@ -61,14 +75,21 @@ The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps:
 
 The audit identified four Welsh programmes:
 
-1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: 30 hours a week for working parents
-   of 3- and 4-year-olds (term time plus some holiday weeks).
+1. **Childcare Offer for Wales**: up to 30 hours a week of combined
+   nursery education (at least 10 hours) and childcare, for up to 48
+   weeks a year, for 3- and 4-year-olds of working parents or parents in
+   further or higher education
+   ([gov.wales](https://www.gov.wales/get-30-hours-childcare-3-and-4-year-olds)).
    Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement
    with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis:
    [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act].
-2. **Flying Start**: a universal offer in disadvantaged areas for
-   2- to 3-year-olds (12.5 hours a week). Eligibility is geographic,
-   based on lower layer super output areas.
+2. **Flying Start**: funded childcare for 2- to 3-year-olds in some of
+   the most disadvantaged areas of Wales (12.5 hours a week, 39 weeks a
+   year), expanded in phases since 2022 with the aim of reaching all
+   2-year-olds
+   ([Welsh Government guidance](https://www.gov.wales/flying-start-childcare-guidance-html)).
+   Eligibility is geographic, based on lower layer super output areas
+   chosen by each local authority.
 3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant**, parallel to the English
    Childcare Grant.
 4. **Welsh EMA**, parallel to the Scottish EMA.
@@ -77,8 +98,12 @@ The audit identified four Welsh programmes:
 
 The audit identified four NI programmes:
 
-1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: 12.5 hours a week in the
-   year before school. Universal.
+1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)**: a funded place in the
+   immediate pre-school year for every child whose family wants one.
+   In December 2024, 60% of children had 12.5 hours a week and 40% had
+   22.5 hours; the Department of Education is moving places to 22.5
+   hours, starting with 77 settings from September 2025
+   ([Department of Education](https://www.education-ni.gov.uk/news/education-minister-announces-first-step-major-expansion-pre-school-education-provision)).
 2. **Sure Start**: younger children in disadvantaged areas, including a
    programme for 2-year-olds.
 3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**.
@@ -88,10 +113,11 @@ The audit identified four NI programmes:
 
 For each new programme:
 
-- New parameter tree under `parameters/gov/<region>/<programme>/`
-  capturing the income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates.
-- New variable(s) under `variables/gov/<region>/<programme>/` gated on
-  the appropriate `country == ...` check.
+- New parameter tree under the administering body (as #1643 did with
+  `parameters/gov/scottish_government/<programme>/`) capturing the
+  income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates.
+- New variable(s) under the matching `variables/gov/<body>/<programme>/`
+  folder, gated on the appropriate `country == ...` check.
 - A `<programme>_eligible` companion variable that the new programme
   variable composes with the rate parameter, the same pattern as the
   English entitlement trio.
@@ -100,8 +126,10 @@ For each new programme:
 
 ### Structural items deferred to this work
 
-The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also flagged two structural items that
-become more pressing once the regional programmes land:
+The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also listed four structural findings.
+#1703 has since split the `programs.yaml` umbrella row, and one (a
+shared `in_england` helper) is minor; the other two become more pressing
+once the regional programmes land:
 
 - `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at
   `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate
@@ -118,19 +146,25 @@ per-programme work.
 
 ## Data needs
 
-Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather
-than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy:
-
-- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level,
-  enough to gate eligibility.
-- **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start
-  and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority.
-- **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide
-  Scottish funded ELC caseloads.
+Several regional programmes (the Scottish two-year-old strand, the
+Childcare Offer, Flying Start and PSEP) are funded hours rather than
+cash payments, so their data side is comparatively easy:
+
+- **FRS** provides the household's `region`, from which the model
+  derives `country`; that is enough to gate eligibility.
+- **Welsh Government** publishes Flying Start official statistics with
+  local authority breakdowns, and an annual Childcare Offer for Wales
+  report that gives the number of children using the Offer by local
+  authority.
+- **Scottish Government Funded Early Learning and Childcare Statistics**
+  (the annual ELC census) provide funded ELC registrations, including
+  eligible two-year-olds.
 - **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads.
-- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and NI childcare grants need the same
-  treatment as the English `childcare_grant`: calibration against
-  published award totals.
+- The SAAS, Student Finance Wales and Student Finance NI childcare
+  grants need published award totals to check the modelled amounts
+  against. The English `childcare_grant` has no calibration target yet:
+  the Student Loans Company targets in policyengine-uk-data cover
+  Parents' Learning Allowance and Adult Dependants' Grant only.
 
 The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised
 hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level
@@ -144,27 +178,36 @@ entitlements already enter `household_benefits` and `gov_spending`.
   splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the
   age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring
   the English pattern for queryability.
-- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the dataset being
-  built to replace the Enhanced FRS, assigns each household in England
-  and Wales to a 2021 Output Area, which nests in LSOAs, so eligibility
-  by area becomes possible on that dataset once the Flying Start area
-  list is sourced.
+- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Microcosm UK, the default UK dataset
+  in the policyengine.py bundle since release 6.10.0 (21 October 2026),
+  places each household in its local-area build in one atomic area
+  (a 2021 Output Area in England and Wales, a 2022 Output Area in
+  Scotland, a 2021 Data Zone in Northern Ireland) and derives larger
+  geographies such as LSOAs from it. The national file carries no small
+  areas. Eligibility by area becomes possible on the local-area build
+  once the Flying Start LSOA list is sourced.
 - EMA ended in England but still runs in Scotland, Wales and Northern
-  Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` are reported amounts with
-  no formula. Should the devolved schemes be modelled under the existing
-  `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate regional schemes?
+  Ireland. Today `child_ema` and `adult_ema` (under
+  `variables/gov/dwp/`) are reported FRS amounts with no formula. Should
+  the devolved schemes sit alongside the England-only
+  `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` tree, or be separate schemes under each
+  administration?
 
 ## References
 
 - Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644), the full childcare coverage audit.
 - Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008), the original Scotland, Wales and NI gap report.
-- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC.
-- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe).
+- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643], Scottish universal funded ELC; [#1703](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1703), per-programme `programs.yaml` rows.
+- Existing England implementation (the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/blob/main/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe).
 - Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act].
-- Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014].
+- Scottish eligible-2-year-old legislation: [Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 s. 47(3)][cyp-47] and [SSI 2014/196][ssi-196-2014], as amended by [SSI 2025/82][ssi-82-2025].
+- SAAS, [University Childcare Fund guidance, 2026 to 2027][saas-childcare].
 
 [issue-1644]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644
 [pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643
 [wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents
-[sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made
+[ssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents
+[ssi-82-2025]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2025/82/made
+[cyp-47]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2014/8/section/47
+[saas-childcare]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/files/311/saas-childcare-fund-guidance.pdf
 [scot-ema]: https://www.mygov.scot/ema