Abolish income-related ESA from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #2562

Split from #1914. PR #2563 fixes that issue's Universal Credit overlap. This issue carries its other part, the abolition itself.

Problem

SI 2026/409 inserted art. 3A into SI 2025/1148. It brings the ESA "amending provisions" (Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.33(1)(b), through SI 2013/983 art. 4(1)) into force on 1 July 2026 for every remaining old style ESA award that they have not yet reached and that is not due to reach them at the end of a two-week run-on (art. 3A(1)). That ends income-related ESA.

• Saving. Art. 3A(2) saves an award where, immediately before that date, a person is appointed under reg 57 of the Claims and Payments Regulations 2013 (persons unable to act). It also saves one where, in the 6 months ending with that date, the Secretary of State determined that such an appointment was likely to be needed. Art. 3A(3): the saving does not stop a UC claim, or reg 46(1)(a) of the Transitional Regulations, from ending the award.
• Northern Ireland. SR 2025/176 art. 3A has the same structure from 1 October 2026, with the reg 52 appointee saving of the NI 2016 Claims and Payments Regulations. It was inserted by SR 2026/115 (per Abolish income-related ESA from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) and stop paying it alongside UC #1914).
• Contributory ESA. A contributory allowance in the same award continues as new style ESA. Art. 2 already converted contributory-only awards from 1 December 2025.

esa_income still pays reported awards, screened for capital and work, with no end date. After #2563 only a family's Universal Credit claim ends them.

Proposal (from #1914)

• The switch. Reuse Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910's pattern for the working-age Housing Benefit abolition: a numeric 1/0 parameter per jurisdiction with fiscal_year_blend: true (a bool is sampled at 30 April and would leave 2026-27 unaffected). Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910 is held under d837 until uk-data#492 lands.
• The saving. Model it if the data can identify appointees; otherwise disclose it.
• Tests. Hand-checked YAML at 30 June / 1 July 2026 and 30 September / 1 October 2026 (NI). A property test that ESA(IR) is zero after the abolition, outside the saving. A real Enhanced FRS or Microcosm impact.
• Order. Land this before uk-data#492, which moves more ESA(IR) reporters onto UC.