Correct 2025-26 Pension Credit rates and the Savings Credit projection #2083

Summary

PolicyEngine UK 2.106.1 encodes the 2025-26 Pension Credit Savings Credit thresholds as £193.02 a week for a single claimant and £306.34 for a couple, rather than the enacted £198.27 and £314.34, and its coupled standard minimum guarantee values are also below the enacted rates. The explicit 2026-27 thresholds, £208.07 and £329.75, match the Great Britain and Northern Ireland uprating orders and DWP rates, as do the other stored Great Britain thresholds from 2015-16 through 2024-25. However, both threshold branches then apply CPI directly from 2027-28. The State Pension Credit Act defines the maximum Savings Credit using a prescribed percentage of the difference between the standard minimum guarantee and the threshold, while DWP increases the standard minimum guarantee and maximum Savings Credit on different bases; the threshold therefore cannot be projected by direct CPI uprating. No 2027-28 threshold had been enacted or published by 5 October 2026. The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026 (article 29(3), page 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2026 (article 29(3)); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows); State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5)

Audited model surface

• Audited release: policyengine-uk 2.106.1
• Audit unit: parameter:gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.threshold
• Last model modification: 2026-05-23
• Audit date: 2026-10-05
• Periods reviewed: 2015-16 through 2026-27 (Great Britain), 2025-26 through 2026-27 (Northern Ireland), 2027-28 projection behavior
• Jurisdictions: Great Britain, Northern Ireland

Findings and implementation parts

1. The 2025-26 single and couple thresholds are £5.25 and £8.00 too low; because both direct readers use these amounts, the release can admit income below the statutory thresholds and overstate the Savings Credit award.

Sources: The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows)

• Change the 2025-04-01 single value from £193.02 to £198.27 and the couple value from £306.34 to £314.34, attach the 2025 legislation and DWP rates table to both dated values, and add regression coverage for the two values and their effect on eligibility and award calculations. The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows)
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/savings_credit/threshold.yaml → SINGLE.values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/savings_credit/threshold.yaml → COUPLE.values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows).

2. The coupled 2025-26 standard minimum guarantee amounts are £5.25 a week too low for a single claimant and £7.99 too low for a couple, understating Guarantee Credit while largely offsetting the threshold error in the formula-derived maximum Savings Credit.

Sources: The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows)

• Change the 2025-04-01 standard minimum guarantee from £221.85 to £227.10 for a single claimant and from £338.61 to £346.60 for a couple, attach the Great Britain and Northern Ireland legislation and DWP rates table to each value, and add focused regression tests. The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows)
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/minimum_guarantee.yaml → SINGLE.values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/guarantee_credit/minimum_guarantee.yaml → COUPLE.values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025 (article 29(3), page 19); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025 (article 29(3), page 17); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Pension Credit table, Savings Credit rows).

3. From 2027-28, direct CPI uprating projects thresholds of about £212.86 for a single claimant and £337.33 for a couple even though the threshold is determined jointly by the standard minimum guarantee and the maximum Savings Credit, which DWP uprates on different bases.

Sources: State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A11/2024: Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2026 (paragraphs 5 and 22); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5)

• Remove the direct CPI uprating metadata from the Savings Credit threshold until a rule-specific projection can derive it from a separately projected standard minimum guarantee and maximum Savings Credit, attach the governing sources to the parameter metadata, and add focused 2027 regression coverage that prevents direct CPI projection. State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A11/2024: Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2026 (paragraphs 5 and 22); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5)
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/savings_credit/threshold.yaml → metadata.uprating using State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A11/2024: Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2026 (paragraphs 5 and 22); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/pension_credit/savings_credit/threshold.yaml → metadata.reference using State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A11/2024: Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2026 (paragraphs 5 and 22); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5).

Projection behavior

• gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.threshold.SINGLE uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2026-04-01 (first projected date 2027-04-01): incorrect_in_release. Direct CPI uprating does not preserve the statutory relationship between the single threshold, the standard minimum guarantee, and the maximum Savings Credit when DWP applies different uprating bases to those inputs. Sources: State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A11/2024: Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2026 (paragraphs 5 and 22); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5)
• gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.threshold.COUPLE uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2026-04-01 (first projected date 2027-04-01): incorrect_in_release. Direct CPI uprating does not preserve the statutory relationship between the couple threshold, the standard minimum guarantee, and the maximum Savings Credit when DWP applies different uprating bases to those inputs. Sources: State Pension Credit Act 2002 section 3 (section 3(2), (4), and (7)); A11/2024: Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2026 (paragraphs 5 and 22); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (paragraph 5)

Uncertainties and exclusions

The audit checked every stored Great Britain threshold from 2015-16 through 2026-27 against DWP annual rates tables. Northern Ireland legislation was independently checked for the disputed 2025-26 period and the succeeding 2026-27 period, but earlier Northern Ireland instruments were not traced individually. No 2027-28 threshold had been enacted or published in an official rates table by 5 October 2026. Removing direct threshold uprating carries the last enacted value forward until an explicit rate or a supported derived projection is encoded; it does not assert that the threshold will be frozen in 2027-28. The minimum guarantee projection discrepancy is tracked separately in issue #2072. This review does not certify other Savings Credit inputs, eligibility restrictions, income definitions, phase-in or phase-out rates, or rounding behavior.