Audit: UK childcare programme coverage — devolved gaps and structural cleanups #1644

Update, 25 Oct 2026: structural item 1 is done (#1703). The Childcare Offer for Wales is done: #2535 merged on 24 Oct 2026 at f8782fe (variables/gov/welsh_government/childcare_offer/wales_childcare_offer.py). Everything else marked ❌ below is still missing on main (1e98e09), including the Scottish eligible-two-year-old strand. #1726 (regional docs page) merged on 24 Oct 2026 at 7d15ea3.

Follow-up from #1008 and PR #1643. Below is an audit of childcare programme coverage in policyengine-uk as of today. Filing as a tracker so the remaining work can be split into discrete issues / PRs rather than kept as one catch-all.

UK-wide — correctly scoped

• Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC, £2k/child/yr; disabled-child higher cap covered)
• Universal Credit childcare element (DWP)
• Working Tax Credit childcare element (DWP, legacy)

England-only (DfE) — all correctly gate on country == ENGLAND

• Universal Childcare Entitlement (15 hrs/week, 3–4yo)
• Extended Childcare Entitlement (30 hrs/week, working parents)
• Targeted Childcare Entitlement (disadvantaged 2yo + working families)
• Childcare Grant (Student Finance England)
• Care to Learn (young parents in education)

Scotland

• ✅ Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds (1,140 hrs/yr) — added in PR Add Scottish funded early learning and childcare (#1008) #1643
• ❌ Eligible-two-year-old strand (vulnerable / low-income 2yo under the 2014 Order)
• ❌ Student Awards Agency Scotland: Lone Parents' Grant, Dependants' Grant, Childcare Fund
• ❌ Scottish EMA / equivalent to Care to Learn

Wales — nothing covered

• ✅ Childcare Offer for Wales (30 hrs/week, 3–4yo, working parents; Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019). Added in Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535 (merged 24 Oct 2026, f8782fe)
• ❌ Flying Start (pre-school, 2–3yo, disadvantaged areas)
• ❌ Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant
• ❌ Welsh EMA

Northern Ireland — nothing covered

• ❌ Pre-school Education Programme (12.5 hrs/week, 3–4yo)
• ❌ Sure Start (younger disadvantaged children)
• ❌ Student Finance NI Childcare Grant
• ❌ NI EMA

Structural findings (independent of regional gaps)

1. programs.yaml has a childcare_entitlements umbrella entry with no variable or parameter_prefix — orphan registry row. Should either bind to something or split into one row per entitlement. Done in Split childcare_entitlements umbrella into per-programme registry rows (#1644) #1703 (merged 1 Jun 2026), which split it into per-programme rows.
2. No aggregating variable across programmes (e.g. "total subsidised childcare hours per child per week"). The API can't surface a single answer to "what's this family's combined childcare support" without the caller summing per-programme variables.
3. weeks_per_year and childcare_funding_rate live at gov.dfe root but encode English assumptions (DfE, English term structure, English hourly rates). As we extend to Scotland/Wales/NI, each region needs its own term-week and funding-rate parameters.
4. Minor: the three England DfE _eligible variables each re-derive the in_england check. A shared in_england helper variable would reduce duplication — not load-bearing.

Suggested work split

• Close Regional childcare programs #1008 in favour of per-programme tickets once this audit is agreed.
• One issue each for: Wales Childcare Offer, Flying Start, NI PSEP, Sure Start, Scottish eligible-two-year-old strand, SAAS childcare support, Student Finance Wales/NI childcare grants.
• One issue for the structural cleanups (items 1–3 above).