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Map FRS household codes from explicit data-dictionary tables - #636

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Summary

An external replication using raw FRS 2024-25 hit council tax band code 10 and other codes it could not place. This PR makes the build read the FRS household codes from explicit data-dictionary tables and fail clearly on a code it does not know.

  • CTBAND. Codes 1 to 9 map to bands A to I through an explicit table. Code 10, blanks and the FRS missing-value codes (zero or below) all take band D, the policyengine-uk default. Code 10 is "Household not valued separately" in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 data dictionaries and "Information not found" in 2024-25, when DWP started taking the band from Valuation Office Agency and Scottish Assessors Association records. On main, code 10 already became D but a blank band became A (the categorical default), so the same "no band" case got two different bands. Northern Ireland households, which leave CTBAND blank, now get D, as Microcosm already gives them.
  • Unknown codes. A CTBAND, GVTREGNO, PTENTYP2 or TYPEACC code outside the data dictionary now stops create_frs with an error naming the FRS variable and the code (never a count). On main, an unknown CTBAND code silently became D, and an unknown region, tenure or accommodation code became a missing value that policyengine-uk later rejects ("contains NaN values" or "Invalid value(s) ['nan']") without naming the survey variable.

Evidence

UKDS FRS variable listings (household table), downloaded from the public UKDS documentation pages:

Release SN CTBAND 9 CTBAND 10
2022-23 9252 Band I Household not valued separately
2023-24 9367 Band I Household not valued separately
2024-25 9563 Band I - Wales only Information not found

The 2024-25 "NEW FOR 2024-25" sheet says CTBAND is "Based on VOA / SAA data for CT band and not respondents' answers". GVTREGNO (1, 2, 4 to 13), PTENTYP2 (1 to 6) and TYPEACC (1 to 7) have the same codes in all three releases, so the new errors cannot fire on any of them; the production build would already fail on such codes when policyengine-uk loads the dataset.

Open question

Band D for a household with no band is the existing default, kept here. An alternative is to impute the band (for example from the reported bill and region), which would matter if the 2024-25 "Information not found" share is material. I have no access to the microdata to measure that share.

Tests

  • tests/test_frs_categorical_codes.py: every CTBAND code 1 to 10 against the dictionary, blanks and missing-value codes, codes outside the dictionary, a property test that every output is a valid CouncilTaxBand, and the generic mapper's error.
  • tests/test_legacy_benefit_proxies.py: through create_frs, CTBAND 1, 8, 9, 10 and blank, and an unknown code for each of the four variables. Against main's frs.py, 5 of these 9 fail (blank becomes A; the four unknown codes pass silently). The fixture's PTENTYP2 and TYPEACC were 0, which neither dictionary has; they are now 3 and 1.
  • FRS tests (survey year, employment status, property income, legacy proxies, new codes): 1315 passed, 3 skipped. The full suite was not completed locally.
  • ruff check and ruff format --check clean on the changed files.

Docs for building from a UKDS download are in a separate PR: #635.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Map CTBAND through an explicit table of the UKDS data dictionary codes.
Code 10 ("Information not found" from 2024-25, "Household not valued
separately" before), blanks and missing-value codes all take band D, the
policyengine-uk default; a blank band used to become band A. A CTBAND,
GVTREGNO, PTENTYP2 or TYPEACC code outside the dictionary now fails the
build naming the FRS variable and code.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026 •

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Calibration fit against the base build: pass

Targets within 10% (those both builds have) Base Head Change
National (647) 64.5% 64.9% +0.5pp
Local (11,228) 75.1% 75.1% -0.0pp

A drop of more than 2.0% fails.

Notes

  • 4 national targets are in a better band on the head.

National targets in a worse error band on the head (1)

Target Base Head
hmrc/self_employment_income_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000 within 10% 10-25%

Flags are for review: builds of the same code move 2 to 12 national targets to a worse band (#598). Bands are of |estimate / target - 1|; no target's estimate or error is published.

Workflow run

Income distribution and single ages against the base build: pass

HBAI FYE 2025 (DWP), period 2024: equivalised income in £ a week, rates and Gini in per cent. A value outside HBAI's 95% interval is marked (outside).

Measure Base Head HBAI 95% interval
median_bhc 678.42 (outside) 678.42 (outside) 719.48 703.57 to 735.58
median_ahc 584.44 (outside) 584.31 (outside) 623.14 605.21 to 637.07
mean_bhc 800.23 (outside) 800.20 (outside) 854.98 836.37 to 870.35
mean_ahc 691.62 (outside) 691.59 (outside) 749.82 732.33 to 764.50
gini_bhc 33.15 33.14 32.74 31.89 to 33.98
gini_ahc 38.45 (outside) 38.44 (outside) 36.78 35.90 to 38.29
relative_low_income_bhc_all 18.20 (outside) 18.19 (outside) 15.91 14.45 to 17.64
relative_low_income_bhc_children 23.88 23.86 20.52 17.36 to 23.96
relative_low_income_bhc_working_age 17.48 (outside) 17.47 (outside) 14.28 12.91 to 16.02
relative_low_income_bhc_pensioners 13.77 13.77 15.90 13.69 to 17.99
relative_low_income_ahc_all 23.47 (outside) 23.46 (outside) 19.64 17.99 to 21.27
relative_low_income_ahc_children 33.53 (outside) 33.51 (outside) 27.41 23.49 to 30.64
relative_low_income_ahc_working_age 23.16 (outside) 23.16 (outside) 18.58 17.01 to 20.34
relative_low_income_ahc_pensioners 12.06 12.07 13.87 11.62 to 15.90
Single ages against the ONS projection Base Head
Mean error, ages 0 to 79 11.0% 11.0%
Largest error, ages 0 to 79 43.8% 43.8%
Largest error, ages 15 to 19 36.9% 36.9%

Flags

None.

These measures report and flag but do not fail yet: their same-code spread is unmeasured (#598).

Aggregate impact of the data change: pass

Base dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (the base's build, sha256 74f2d5b6a5ec) against head dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (this pull request's build, sha256 3ab521b73d21), both measured with policyengine-uk 2.122.2, fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 4 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.dfe_education_spending, spending.disabled_students_allowance, spending.sda), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£21.2m -£24.9m -£25.6m -£25.5m -£22.3m -£22.5m -£26.1m
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) -£9.4m -£9.8m -£10.2m -£10.4m -£10.5m -£10.7m -£11.0m
National Insurance (employer) -£29.7m -£30.8m -£31.7m -£32.5m -£32.7m -£33.7m -£35.0m
Capital gains tax +£54.6m +£56.4m +£58.4m +£60.5m +£62.6m +£64.8m +£67.2m
Student loan repayments +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.8m +£0.8m -£0.8m
VAT -£176.7m -£181.4m -£185.7m -£190.2m -£194.9m -£199.6m -£204.5m
Fuel duties +£251 +£355 -£294 -£134 -£161 -£26 +£854
TV licence fee +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m
Council tax +£2.0m +£2.2m +£2.5m +£2.8m +£3.1m +£3.4m +£3.4m
High value council tax surcharge 0 0 0 -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.4m
Northern Ireland domestic rates +£23,347 +£24,450 +£25,601 +£26,815 +£28,100 +£29,449 +£29,571
Business rates +£241 -£1,461 +£6,488 +£1,199 -£3,263 -£762 -£3,831
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the -£50.5m -£53.0m -£55.7m -£58.4m -£61.1m -£64.1m -£67.2m
Land transaction tax (Wales) -£57,792 -£62,595 -£68,095 -£74,454 -£81,147 -£88,663 -£96,803
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) -£0.3m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.5m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension +£14.4m +£14.4m +£15.9m +£17.1m +£17.6m +£18.1m +£18.7m
Pension Credit +£3.0m +£3.0m +£3.4m +£3.3m +£3.6m +£3.8m +£3.6m
Winter Fuel Payment +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) -£12,124 -£10,178 +£3,192 +£15,035 +£16,389 +£17,849 +£28,795
Universal Credit +£35.9m +£39.5m +£40.3m +£40.1m +£42.2m +£42.5m +£42.1m
Housing Benefit +£0.9m +£1.0m +£0.7m +£0.6m +£0.5m +£0.4m +£0.9m
Council Tax Reduction +£0.9m +£0.9m +£1.1m +£1.1m +£1.2m +£1.3m +£1.3m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -£2.2m -£2.3m -£2.4m -£2.4m -£2.5m -£2.5m -£2.6m
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) +£9.8m +£10.1m +£10.3m +£10.6m +£10.8m +£11.1m +£11.3m
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) +£0.2m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m
Income Support -£58,580 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment +£12.3m +£12.8m +£13.2m +£13.5m +£13.8m +£14.1m +£14.5m
Disability Living Allowance +£2.7m +£2.9m +£2.9m +£3.0m +£3.1m +£3.2m +£3.2m
Attendance Allowance +£2.9m +£3.0m +£3.1m +£3.2m +£3.3m +£3.3m +£3.4m
Carer's Allowance +£3.4m +£3.6m +£3.7m +£3.7m +£3.8m +£3.9m +£4.0m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -£2.2m -£2.3m -£2.3m -£2.4m -£2.4m -£2.5m -£2.6m
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.5m +£1.5m +£1.5m +£1.6m +£1.6m
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m
Child Benefit +£3.1m +£3.2m +£2.8m +£2.9m +£3.1m +£3.2m +£3.1m
Scottish Child Payment +£1.5m +£1.6m +£1.6m +£1.7m +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.8m
Healthy Start vouchers -£7,553 -£7,581 -£7,609 -£7,640 -£7,674 -£7,708 -£7,742
Statutory Maternity Pay +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.6m +£0.6m
Statutory Sick Pay -£1.9m -£2.0m -£2.0m -£2.1m -£2.1m -£2.2m -£2.2m
Sure Start Maternity Grant +£3,480 +£3,494 +£3,507 +£3,521 +£3,536 +£3,552 +£3,567
Bereavement Support Payment +£5.9m +£6.1m +£6.3m +£6.4m +£6.6m +£6.7m +£6.9m
Tax-Free Childcare -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.3m -£0.2m -£0.2m
Extended childcare entitlement +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.1m +£2.3m +£2.3m +£2.6m +£2.8m
Universal childcare entitlement +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.2m +£86,057 +£56,072 +£0.1m +£91,311
Targeted childcare entitlement -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m
Parents' Learning Allowance +£94,888 +£95,248 +£95,600 +£95,983 +£96,405 +£96,839 +£97,257
Adult Dependants' Grant -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
NHS spending +£18.6m +£18.6m +£18.7m +£18.8m +£18.9m +£19.0m +£19.0m
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending +£49 +£113 +£55 -£13 +£1 -£61 -£189

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension +1.2k +1.1k +1.2k +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k
Pension Credit +420 -263 +451 +424 +436 +440 +444
Winter Fuel Payment +1.7k +1.7k +1.6k +1.6k +1.6k +1.5k +1.5k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) -167 -203 -40 +63 +63 +64 +64
Universal Credit +3.5k +3.5k +3.5k +3.3k +3.4k +3.3k +3.4k
Housing Benefit -87 -69 -113 -118 -127 -127 -85
Council Tax Reduction +879 +837 +917 +888 +875 +891 +877
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -138 -138 -139 -139 -140 -140 -141
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k +1.4k +1.4k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) -13 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) +68 +68 +69 +69 +69 +70 +70
Income Support +19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k +1.3k +1.4k +1.4k +1.4k
Disability Living Allowance +295 +296 +297 +299 +300 +301 +302
Attendance Allowance +513 +515 +517 +519 +521 +523 +526
Carer's Allowance +790 +793 +796 +799 +802 +806 +809
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -500 -502 -504 -506 -508 -510 -512
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -502 -504 -506 -508 -510 -512
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit +230 +230 +231 +232 +233 +234 +235
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme -119 -119 -120 -120 -121 -121 -122
Child Benefit +1.3k +1.3k +971 +976 +1.0k +1.0k +925
Scottish Child Payment +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k
Healthy Start vouchers -35 -35 -35 -35 -35 -35 -36
Statutory Maternity Pay +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3 +3
Statutory Sick Pay -195 -196 -196 -197 -198 -199 -200
Sure Start Maternity Grant +7 +7 +7 +7 +7 +7 +7
Bereavement Support Payment +286 +288 +289 +290 +291 +292 +294
Tax-Free Childcare +13 -2 -67 -60 -117 +52 +53
Extended childcare entitlement +233 +179 +179 +216 +206 +270 +309
Universal childcare entitlement +32 +52 +57 +23 +15 +28 +23
Targeted childcare entitlement -121 -121 -122 -122 -123 -128 -120
Parents' Learning Allowance +47 +47 +47 +47 +48 +48 +48
Adult Dependants' Grant -74 -74 -67 -67 -68 -68 -61
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£230.1m -£240.6m -£247.2m -£253.3m -£255.4m -£262.0m -£274.5m
Government spending +£112.7m † +£117.6m † +£120.7m † +£122.8m † +£126.8m † +£129.3m † +£130.9m †
Government balance, each receipt once -£342.8m † -£358.2m † -£368.0m † -£376.2m † -£382.3m † -£391.3m † -£405.4m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£230.1m -£240.6m -£247.2m -£253.3m -£255.5m -£262.0m -£274.5m
household_tax -£23.8m -£28.3m -£29.8m -£30.6m -£27.9m -£28.6m -£35.0m
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£24.4m -£29.0m -£30.5m -£31.0m -£28.3m -£29.0m -£33.8m
gov_spending +£112.7m † +£117.6m † +£120.7m † +£122.8m † +£126.8m † +£129.3m † +£130.9m †
household_benefits +£112.7m † +£117.6m † +£120.7m † +£122.8m † +£126.8m † +£129.3m † +£130.9m †
gov_balance -£342.8m † -£358.2m † -£368.0m † -£376.2m † -£382.3m † -£391.3m † -£405.4m †

Components the model counts twice

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt +£30 -£148 +£612 +£126 -£309 -£59 -£404

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income +£120.6m +£124.4m +£131.1m +£138.5m +£150.2m +£157.6m +£162.8m
Household net income +£275.2m † +£289.2m † +£301.0m † +£311.7m † +£320.9m † +£332.1m † +£345.9m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Population

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People +4.8k +4.8k +4.8k +4.8k +4.9k +4.9k +4.9k
Benefit units +1.9k +1.9k +1.9k +1.9k +1.9k +1.9k +1.9k
Households +3.2k +3.2k +3.2k +3.2k +3.2k +3.2k +3.3k

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£0.8m +£0.8m +£0.8m +£0.8m +£0.8m +£0.8m +£0.9m
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£0.8m +£0.9m +£0.9m +£1.0m +£1.0m +£1.1m +£1.1m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£0.2m +£0.2m +£0.1m +£81,148 -£25,340 -£20,182 +£12,225
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£0.9m -£0.8m -£0.8m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£12.8m -£12.9m -£13.0m -£13.3m -£14.1m -£13.9m -£13.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% -£2.6m -£2.8m -£2.9m -£2.9m -£2.9m -£2.9m -£3.0m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£17.6m -£18.0m -£18.5m -£18.9m -£19.4m -£19.9m -£20.3m
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.7m +£0.8m +£1.1m +£1.2m +£1.3m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£1.7m -£2.0m -£2.0m -£2.0m -£2.1m -£2.1m -£2.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£0.8m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£0.9m -£1.7m -£1.8m -£1.7m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£0.8m +£0.9m +£0.9m +£0.9m +£0.9m +£0.9m +£1.0m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£0.9m +£0.9m +£0.9m +£1.0m +£1.1m +£1.1m +£1.1m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax +£79,243 +£0.1m -£19,060 -£60,593 -£0.2m -£0.2m -£59,866
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.5m +£0.4m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£12.8m +£12.9m +£12.9m +£13.3m +£14.0m +£13.9m +£13.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance -£2.4m -£2.5m -£2.6m -£2.7m -£2.7m -£2.7m -£2.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat -£17.6m -£18.0m -£18.5m -£18.9m -£19.4m -£19.9m -£20.3m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.7m +£0.8m +£1.1m +£1.2m +£1.3m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£1.7m +£2.0m +£2.0m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.1m +£2.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.6m +£1.7m +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m

Household net income by decile

The datasets hold different households, so households are not matched; compare the mean income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (4)
  • Each model total's components are exactly the partition's heads and declared double counts (closure): gov_spending: the partition puts 'healthy_start_vouchers' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'scottish_child_payment' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'statutory_paternity_pay' in this total, but the model does not add it
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 65 units below zero, a weighted £-83,196,141 in total; 2026-27: 65 units below zero, a weighted £-85,433,074 in total; 2027-28: 65 units below zero, a weighted £-87,464,159 in total
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to gov_spending (identity:gov_spending): 2025-26: 350 households differ, by a weighted £533,953,970 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 352 households differ, by a weighted £555,015,053 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 352 households differ, by a weighted £568,496,512 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to household_benefits (identity:household_benefits): 2025-26: 1,835 households differ, by a weighted £92,615,540 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 1,802 households differ, by a weighted £94,467,827 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 1,757 households differ, by a weighted £94,972,755 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
Counted-once check

Counted-once check not run: not requested.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.16 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 213.15s
head policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.16 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 212.73s

Base dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 74f2d5b6a5ec91a1033dae5868c04c2d587096459f8343a19d00a4878228d544, the base's build.

Head dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 3ab521b73d217fddd6ca7b239e77bf1c4759d5890f0a99c24dc66315f6574a34, this pull request's build.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £297.35bn £316.79bn £332.72bn £347.09bn £363.03bn £380.40bn £400.24bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.08bn £53.28bn £55.03bn £56.61bn £58.52bn £60.33bn £62.65bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.85bn £157.28bn £162.16bn £166.67bn £173.38bn £178.80bn £185.84bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £25.10bn £25.95bn £26.90bn £27.87bn £28.83bn £29.89bn £30.98bn
Student loan repayments £7.70bn £7.99bn £8.21bn £8.42bn £8.64bn £8.89bn £8.26bn
VAT £324.07bn £332.78bn £340.69bn £348.90bn £357.44bn £366.23bn £375.16bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.04bn £24.14bn £26.10bn £26.16bn £25.89bn £25.24bn £25.82bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.51bn £4.67bn £4.68bn £4.70bn £4.73bn £4.75bn £4.77bn
Council tax £48.70bn £51.53bn £54.79bn £58.33bn £61.85bn £65.53bn £65.81bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.70bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £1.13bn £1.18bn £1.23bn £1.29bn £1.36bn £1.42bn £1.43bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £19.69bn £20.57bn £21.55bn £22.52bn £23.53bn £24.65bn £25.85bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.07bn £0.07bn £0.07bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £133.16bn £138.23bn £140.48bn £142.85bn £147.07bn £151.42bn £155.88bn
Pension Credit £6.53bn £7.14bn £7.03bn £7.08bn £7.18bn £7.29bn £7.31bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.68bn £1.66bn £1.61bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.57bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn
Universal Credit £78.89bn £83.09bn £84.89bn £86.40bn £87.30bn £84.57bn £85.08bn
Housing Benefit £8.33bn £8.66bn £8.85bn £9.06bn £9.33bn £9.58bn £9.54bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.19bn £2.24bn £2.32bn £2.38bn £2.44bn £2.51bn £2.48bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £3.20bn £3.29bn £3.36bn £3.44bn £3.52bn £3.61bn £3.69bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £4.75bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.24bn £5.36bn £5.50bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.05bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.16bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £30.07bn £31.34bn £32.18bn £32.95bn £33.76bn £34.59bn £35.43bn
Disability Living Allowance £8.33bn £8.68bn £8.92bn £9.13bn £9.35bn £9.58bn £9.82bn
Attendance Allowance £7.71bn £8.03bn £8.25bn £8.45bn £8.65bn £8.87bn £9.08bn
Carer's Allowance £3.90bn £4.07bn £4.18bn £4.28bn £4.38bn £4.49bn £4.60bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.63bn £0.64bn £0.66bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn
Child Benefit £16.38bn £17.02bn £17.45bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.70bn £19.11bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.83bn £3.94bn £4.03bn £4.13bn £4.23bn £4.33bn £4.44bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £0.99bn £1.02bn £1.04bn £1.07bn £1.09bn £1.12bn £1.15bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.30bn £1.33bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.45bn £0.44bn £0.45bn £0.46bn £0.46bn £0.48bn £0.48bn
Extended childcare entitlement £3.81bn £4.23bn £4.34bn £4.46bn £4.58bn £4.80bn £4.89bn
Universal childcare entitlement £1.52bn £1.61bn £1.65bn £1.69bn £1.73bn £1.76bn £1.80bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.42bn £0.42bn £0.41bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £208.39bn £209.18bn £209.95bn £210.79bn £211.72bn £212.67bn £213.59bn
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £30.94bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,737k 11,632k 11,383k 11,296k 11,345k 11,396k 11,445k
Pension Credit 1,364k 1,381k 1,341k 1,324k 1,323k 1,320k 1,302k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,132k 7,003k 6,789k 6,659k 6,636k 6,601k 6,588k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 709k 702k 690k 684k 687k 690k 693k
Universal Credit 6,384k 6,413k 6,436k 6,440k 6,415k 6,401k 6,380k
Housing Benefit 1,209k 1,206k 1,201k 1,197k 1,203k 1,203k 1,199k
Council Tax Reduction 3,614k 3,639k 3,686k 3,712k 3,730k 3,749k 3,715k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 309k 310k 312k 312k 314k 315k 317k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 668k 671k 673k 676k 679k 682k 685k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 9k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 60k 60k 61k 61k 61k 61k 62k
Income Support 26k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 4,084k 4,100k 4,115k 4,132k 4,150k 4,169k 4,186k
Disability Living Allowance 1,369k 1,375k 1,380k 1,385k 1,391k 1,398k 1,404k
Attendance Allowance 1,526k 1,532k 1,537k 1,543k 1,550k 1,557k 1,564k
Carer's Allowance 901k 905k 908k 912k 916k 920k 924k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 73k 73k 73k 74k 74k 74k 75k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 73k 73k 74k 74k 74k 75k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 158k 158k 159k 160k 160k 161k 162k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 61k 61k 61k 62k 62k 62k 62k
Child Benefit 7,978k 7,992k 8,005k 8,032k 8,059k 8,090k 8,103k
Scottish Child Payment 335k 337k 338k 339k 338k 339k 338k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 238k 239k 240k 241k 242k 243k 244k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 305k 306k 307k 308k 310k 311k 312k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 156k 157k 157k 158k 159k 159k 160k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 22k 22k 22k 22k 23k 23k 23k
Bereavement Support Payment 186k 187k 187k 188k 189k 190k 191k
Tax-Free Childcare 965k 955k 957k 963k 940k 957k 945k
Extended childcare entitlement 803k 795k 800k 805k 806k 837k 835k
Universal childcare entitlement 443k 452k 455k 456k 457k 456k 459k
Targeted childcare entitlement 78k 78k 78k 79k 79k 77k 74k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 95k 95k 95k 96k 96k 96k 97k
Adult Dependants' Grant 17k 17k 15k 15k 15k 15k 14k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £986.00bn £1,027.96bn £1,065.88bn £1,101.05bn £1,139.72bn £1,178.67bn £1,219.38bn
Government spending £553.68bn † £568.34bn † £575.75bn † £583.13bn † £592.08bn † £597.72bn † £611.19bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £432.32bn † £459.63bn † £490.13bn † £517.92bn † £547.63bn † £580.95bn † £608.19bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £989.13bn £1,031.09bn £1,069.01bn £1,104.18bn £1,142.85bn £1,181.80bn £1,222.51bn
household_tax £514.21bn £541.03bn £566.16bn £588.62bn £612.02bn £636.77bn £661.51bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £506.52bn £533.04bn £557.95bn £579.50bn £602.67bn £627.15bn £652.50bn
gov_spending £553.68bn † £568.34bn † £575.75bn † £583.13bn † £592.08bn † £597.72bn † £611.19bn †
household_benefits £553.68bn † £568.34bn † £575.75bn † £583.13bn † £592.08bn † £597.72bn † £611.19bn †
gov_balance £435.45bn † £462.76bn † £493.26bn † £521.05bn † £550.76bn † £584.08bn † £611.32bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,659.38bn £1,721.54bn £1,774.25bn £1,824.88bn £1,890.31bn £1,948.80bn £2,020.71bn
Household net income £1,657.57bn † £1,706.01bn † £1,739.82bn † £1,774.28bn † £1,809.85bn † £1,847.84bn † £1,905.92bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 70,745k 71,014k 71,277k 71,562k 71,877k 72,200k 72,511k
Benefit units 38,944k 39,092k 39,236k 39,393k 39,567k 39,745k 39,916k
Households 32,068k 32,189k 32,309k 32,438k 32,580k 32,727k 32,868k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.03bn £6.30bn £6.51bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.12bn £7.38bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.74bn £4.03bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.75bn £5.04bn £5.25bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.58bn £-3.69bn £-3.79bn £-3.85bn £-3.91bn £-3.98bn £-1.67bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.04bn £-1.80bn £-1.68bn £-1.57bn £-1.47bn £-1.36bn £-1.25bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-16.77bn £-17.41bn £-17.65bn £-17.84bn £-17.88bn £-18.09bn £-18.10bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.61bn £11.02bn £11.33bn £11.58bn £11.87bn £12.18bn £12.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £31.96bn £32.82bn £33.60bn £34.41bn £35.25bn £36.11bn £37.00bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £3.27bn £3.52bn £3.73bn £3.93bn £4.18bn £4.43bn £4.78bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-2.96bn £-3.11bn £-3.16bn £-3.20bn £-3.23bn £-3.27bn £-3.31bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-9.74bn £-9.99bn £-10.06bn £-10.16bn £-10.39bn £-10.65bn £-10.93bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.14bn £6.42bn £6.63bn £6.83bn £7.04bn £7.27bn £7.53bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.75bn £4.04bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.76bn £5.05bn £5.27bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.68bn £-3.81bn £-3.91bn £-3.97bn £-4.03bn £-4.11bn £-1.73bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.50bn £2.29bn £2.16bn £2.05bn £1.94bn £1.82bn £1.69bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £16.81bn £17.45bn £17.69bn £17.88bn £17.92bn £18.13bn £18.14bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £10.80bn £11.22bn £11.53bn £11.80bn £12.10bn £12.41bn £12.85bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £31.96bn £32.82bn £33.60bn £34.41bn £35.25bn £36.11bn £37.00bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £3.27bn £3.52bn £3.73bn £3.93bn £4.18bn £4.43bn £4.78bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £2.97bn £3.11bn £3.17bn £3.21bn £3.23bn £3.27bn £3.32bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £13.32bn £13.82bn £14.05bn £14.29bn £14.71bn £15.14bn £15.59bn

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