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[DO NOT MERGE] #551 placebo at production settings: release with the SPI draw re-seeded (512 epochs) - #623

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 108 commits into

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d551/placebo-prod

Closed

[DO NOT MERGE] #551 placebo at production settings: release with the SPI draw re-seeded (512 epochs)#623
MaxGhenis wants to merge 108 commits into
mainfrom
d551/placebo-prod

Commits on Oct 5, 2026
- Stop targeting OBR total NICs on ni_employee
  
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  ff0b130
- Test OBR target variables and shared-column agreement
  
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  64d07fc
Commits on Oct 10, 2026
- Map the 2023-24 SPI and CGT outturns to PolicyEngine year 2023
  
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  ca87af4
- Calibrate SPI income bands to their projected values
  
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  a608ddb
- Read approved training from the FRS TRAINEE flag
  
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Commits on Oct 11, 2026
- Flag approved training for FRS dependants only
  
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  c952694
- State the TRAINEE pattern as observed, and fix the adult fixture's age
  
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  98b2583
- Serve the SPI merge test the committed table, and fix the sampling date
  
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  47fa84e
Commits on Oct 12, 2026
- Start capital gains on HMRC's 2024-25 size-of-gain table
  
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  d071ad0
- Impute capital gains after the other imputations
  
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  bb5bda3
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into fix/obr-ni-total-target
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  dd3e2ab
- Drop obr/ni from the fallback test set; key conflicts on countries
  
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  22ef313
- Address Sol review r1 nits on the OBR NIC comment and conflict check
  
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  4d30fbe
- Compare the reference pairs in every year their column lists
  
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  f5de403
Commits on Oct 15, 2026
- Add locked pytest-xdist development dependency
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  6c81e89
- Fix local UC target alignment by area code
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  248688c
- Build OBR targets only from hash-verified EFO workbooks
  
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  c1953c6
- Save the calibrated weights from the final optimiser step
  
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  677f803
- Fail the calibration build on targets it drops or cannot fit
  
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  39e652a
- Compare each pull request's calibration fit with its base build's
  
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  018e0b5
- Bind EFO vintages to their workbook titles; refuse rows with their own unit
  
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  98ad844
- Measure each build's HBAI distribution and single ages against its base
  
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  594c044
- List the three UC payment bands with no signal in pull request builds
  
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  eb247c6
- Read Scottish council tax targets from a hash-verified committed workbook
  
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  0cf62aa
- Compare each build's national aggregates with its base's, model fixed
  
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  b4ec4b5
- Record each browser download's time, and rehearse ingest with --dry-run
  
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  2fb5cfa
- Measure HBAI incomes as DWP does; fail on incomplete reports
  
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  b6c83c4
- Merge branch 'w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
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  9d37844
- Pin the aggregate-impact tool to policyengine-uk#2425's model-fingerprint commit
  
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  committed
  1d5a249
- Compare fit summaries, not raw calibration logs (Sol review of #599)
  
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  22e823f
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
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  4bf9cd8
- An empty HBAI group has no rate, not a NaN
  
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  48f88ad
- Format calibrate.py and say only the fit summary leaves the base build
  
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  564f370
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
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  756cfe6
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
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  80a5715
- Stop uploading raw calibration logs as public Actions artifacts
  
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  ddef8bb
- Describe the fit summary in the changelog fragment
  
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  b957157
- Say the flag evidence predates the records filter
  
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  committed
  342ea79
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  da4acc7
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  4219c79
- Guard every route out of a job that can reach the data (Sol review of #603)
  
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  e42d23d
- Harden OBR ingest for Budget day (Sol re-review of #592)
  
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  committed
  f1faff2
- Match ONS age targets to the FRS top code of 80
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  61f8f7e
- Close three bypasses in the data-job guard (Sol re-review of #603)
  
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  449a519
- Publish only which targets are within 10% (Sol re-review of #599)
  
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  9f50a95
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
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  2f0ed39
- Measure the distribution after the tests and report a crashed comparison (delta review of #600)
  
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  512e85e
- Merge branch 'w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
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  bed48ad
- Say which log columns describe the saved weights
  
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  2c95697
- Test the final-state invariant as a property over epochs and loops
  
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  e13f22b
- Stop data jobs saving the uv cache, and widen the data-job checks (Sol re-review 2 of #603)
  
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  8374b30
- Publish error bands and flag a worse band (Sol re-review 2 of #599)
  
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  30fbb83
- Merge #599's band rework; keep the test job about the tests (delta review 2 of #600)
  
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  88e6624
- Merge #600; report a crashed aggregate comparison and keep the base aggregates independent (review of #602)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  ca9c0ab
- Pin the aggregate-impact tool to policyengine-uk#2425's c0d0c49d
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  13e8eb2
- Report dry-run refusals, record download-time basis, tighten OBR checks
  
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  3991f69
Commits on Oct 16, 2026
- Recognise secrets in any case and write-all; let the versioning job run only its lines (Sol re-review 3 of #603)
  
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  c41f10c
- Don't let a shell or environment change what the versioning job runs (Sol re-review 4 of #603)
  
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  79ffd76
- Block a step working-directory and more curl header spellings (Sol re-review 5 nits)
  
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  committed
  e9fff87
- Fix national age-band tests for open-ended 80+ targets
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  29ca754
- Put an estimate exactly on a band edge inside it (delta review of #599)
  
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  committed
  dc81b55
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
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  07a8ea7
- Merge #599; test the fit summary's and the base's step order (delta review of #600)
  
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  committed
  45d4742
- Merge branch 'w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
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  3eec058
- Merge #600; pin the tool to #2425's 5d5558ed and test the aggregate wiring (delta review of #602)
  
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  15426b7
- Show the own-unit sub-heading test reads the heading; rewrap two docstrings
  
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  159db44
- Pin a non-verbose example of the final-weights property (delta review of #594)
  
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  cac704b
- Give the download pages in the documented ingest command
  
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  133632a
- Report duplicate target names, scope known gaps to a build kind, and test the matrix against main's
  
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  committed
  a590573
- Count any curl or wget in a data job as a route out (delta review of #603)
  
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  committed
  7313f8b
- Rewrap the docstring line the curl change ran long (nit 1, delta review of #603)
  
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  5881ce3
- Revert "Add locked pytest-xdist development dependency"
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  ff643be
- Pin the aggregate tool to #2425's approved head 6406b2ce
  
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  committed
  0822699
- Test mapped Scottish constituency target rows
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  26e51a2
- Check local income and age source code ordering
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  a2eedce
- Merge origin/main and regenerate SPI projections from the 2023 outturn
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  fa4ebe9
- Refresh SPI changelog after integrating current uprating factors
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  c9229ee
- Conserve capital gains pair priors through calibration
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  0b0325c
- Cover national prior raking and clarify CGT assumptions
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  3a3ee3c
- Merge origin/main into fix/cgt-start-on-hmrc-bands
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  77b6527
- Defer CGT target year changes to the follow-up after #571
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  4840083
- Describe the SPI-only calibration fix and defer CGT follow-up
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  473adaf
- Merge origin/main into w3-target-coverage (integration with #604 and #557)
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  d5555a5
- Merge origin/fix/593-age-topcode into w3-target-coverage (integration with #604 and #557)
  MaxGhenis
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  ef65f75
- Merge origin/fix/spi-cgt-tax-year-start into w3-target-coverage (integration with #604 and #557)
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  45964bc
- Drop the gaps #557 and #604 close (integration with both)
  
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  committed
  6e03d4c
- Bring known_gaps.yaml's header counts up to the integrated inventory (review nit)
  
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  0785612
Commits on Oct 17, 2026
Commits on Oct 19, 2026
- Allow variable high UC payment gaps in release builds
  MaxGhenis
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  cb92e40
- Seed the calibration weight dropout
  
  authored and
  build
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  bc46b5a
- Diagnostic only: production-setting head build (TESTING=0, 512 epochs) to verify the release coverage gate
  build
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  56980d2
- Diagnostic only: placebo for #551, main's SPI draw with seed 43 instead of 42
  
  MaxGhenis
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  c1d4bbd
- Diagnostic only: measure SPI-row aggregates on the build (#551)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  bf00d58

Commits

Commits on Oct 5, 2026

Commits on Oct 10, 2026

Commits on Oct 11, 2026

Commits on Oct 12, 2026

Commits on Oct 15, 2026

Commits on Oct 16, 2026

Commits on Oct 17, 2026

Commits on Oct 19, 2026