Autumn Budget 2026: post-Budget written briefing

app/src/data/posts/articles/carers-allowance-taper.md

@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@ The table and chart leave out the £1 step at the limit itself. Without the tape
 
 ## Population estimates
 
-We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households; we projected the data to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204. Unlike the worked examples, it does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)); with that adjustment, our calculation gives a net cost of about £28 million in 2030-31 and £55 million in 2031-32.
+We also ran the measure on PolicyEngine UK's microsimulation model, which uses survey data on UK households; we projected the data to 2030-31 and 2031-32 on the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The estimate is static: carers do not change how much they work, and take-up of Carer's Allowance follows the assumptions in PolicyEngine's data. This is the run behind the figures for this measure on PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard, split here into its parts. We will update the 2030-31 population estimates after correcting how the taper interacts with overlapping benefits, such as the State Pension. The model applies half a year of the taper in 2030-31, because the taper starts at some point in that year. Like the dashboard, the run keeps PolicyEngine UK's current-law limit of £204. Unlike the worked examples, it does not yet count the PAYE on the allowance against Universal Credit earnings ([regulation 55(5)(b)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/55)); with that adjustment, our calculation gives a net cost of about £28 million in 2030-31 and £55 million in 2031-32.
 
 | £ million, cost to the Exchequer |  2030-31 |  2031-32 |
 | -------------------------------- | -------: | -------: |