Defer Carmarthenshire's band I council tax cell and sign dense build 1's gate-only failures (local cut 38605444)

changelog.d/1095-uk-carmarthenshire-band-i-deferral.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+The local line defers Carmarthenshire's (W06000010) band-I council tax cell (`welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i`), as Shetland's band H is deferred (microcosm#929). On the spine of microcosm#1535's merge the K=15 pool has no band-I household there, so the rowwise driver's support check refused the cell, while every other Welsh band-I cell above the dwelling floor binds. The cell leaves the active local surface (27,168 to 27,167 references), and the local compile-parity receipt drops its ledger-only row (María's ruling of 7 November 2026, microcosm#1095).

changelog.d/1301-uk-dense-signoff-2026-11-07.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Sign dense build 1's gate-only failures for the local line (microcosm#1301, attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261107T102622Z-f52640d9): 5 national target-fit rows, 6 local target-fit cells and 0 areas below the support floor, approved 2026-11-07; 13 entries that build 2 would fail are retired. Every signed row stays bound in the solve, each entry suppresses only the local line's release fence, and a build in which a signed row passes fails its entry as stale.

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/ledger_compile_parity_local_incumbent_2025_signed_differences.json

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 {
- "compiled_count": 27168,
+ "compiled_count": 27167,
  "counts_by_kind": {
   "calibration_drift": 19274,
   "fixture_only": 4267,
-  "ledger_only": 7890
+  "ledger_only": 7889
  },
- "difference_count": 31431,
+ "difference_count": 31430,
  "differences": [
   {
    "fixture_value": 70.0,
@@ -85036,13 +85036,6 @@
    "period": 2025,
    "reason": "No incumbent counterpart: the incumbent bound VOA local rows for England only, and Wales alone has a band I. Microcosm binds the 22 Welsh authorities' StatsWales CT1 chargeable dwellings by band A-I (a1 minus h7 empty minus h8 second homes; chronicle#264), microcosm#929."
   },
-  {
-   "kind": "ledger_only",
-   "ledger_value": 72.0,
-   "name": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i@W06000010",
-   "period": 2025,
-   "reason": "No incumbent counterpart: the incumbent bound VOA local rows for England only, and Wales alone has a band I. Microcosm binds the 22 Welsh authorities' StatsWales CT1 chargeable dwellings by band A-I (a1 minus h7 empty minus h8 second homes; chronicle#264), microcosm#929."
-  },
   {
    "kind": "ledger_only",
    "ledger_value": 500.0,

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_reference_membership.json

@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
   "target_period": 2025,
   "candidate_count": 31347,
   "contract_target_count": 62,
-  "active_reference_count": 27168,
+  "active_reference_count": 27167,
   "status_counts": {
-    "active": 27168,
+    "active": 27167,
     "no_fact_for_area": 1247,
     "signed_deferral_compile_error": 1,
-    "signed_deferred": 2931
+    "signed_deferred": 2932
   },
   "areas_by_geography_level": {
     "constituency": [
@@ -12511,6 +12511,16 @@
       ],
       "defer_if_compiles": true
     },
+    {
+      "target_id": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i",
+      "geography_level": "local_authority",
+      "reason_id": "council_tax_band_i_spine_support_absent",
+      "rationale": "The dense pool on the spine of microcosm#1535's merge leaves Carmarthenshire (W06000010) with no band-I household at the ruled K=15: the rowwise driver's support check refuses the cell (nonzero target, zero household support) while every other Welsh band-I cell above the dwelling floor draws at least one band-I clone and binds. The cell bound on the spine of microcosm#1491's pair (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-11-07, microcosm#1095).",
+      "area_ids": [
+        "W06000010"
+      ],
+      "defer_if_compiles": true
+    },
     {
       "target_id": "microcosm.high_value_homes.over_1m",
       "geography_level": "constituency",
@@ -496633,13 +496643,12 @@
               "target_id": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i",
               "geography_level": "local_authority",
               "geography_id": "W06000010",
-              "status": "active",
+              "status": "signed_deferred",
               "matched_fact_count_overall": 120,
               "matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period": 90,
-              "resolved_period": 2025,
-              "resolved_value": 72.0,
-              "resolved_fact_period": "2025",
-              "resolved_fact_key": "ledger_aggregate_fact_v2_362f4c4d54644db0f138c811"
+              "signed_reason_id": "council_tax_band_i_spine_support_absent",
+              "signed_rationale": "The dense pool on the spine of microcosm#1535's merge leaves Carmarthenshire (W06000010) with no band-I household at the ruled K=15: the rowwise driver's support check refuses the cell (nonzero target, zero household support) while every other Welsh band-I cell above the dwelling floor draws at least one band-I clone and binds. The cell bound on the spine of microcosm#1491's pair (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-11-07, microcosm#1095).",
+              "deferred_value": 72.0
             },
             {
               "name": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i@W06000011",

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/local_target_references.json

@@ -627226,59 +627226,6 @@
         }
       ]
     },
-    {
-      "name": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i@W06000010",
-      "ledger_selector": {
-        "source_name": "welshgov",
-        "record_set_spec_id": [
-          "uk.local_geography.council_tax.wales_ct1.a1_all_chargeable_dwellings.v1",
-          "uk.local_geography.council_tax.wales_ct1.h7_total_chargeable_empty_properties.v1",
-          "uk.local_geography.council_tax.wales_ct1.h8_total_chargeable_second_homes.v1"
-        ],
-        "geography_level": "local_authority",
-        "geography_id": "W06000010"
-      },
-      "entity": "household",
-      "measure": "council_tax/band_i",
-      "family": "council_tax_stock",
-      "period": 2025,
-      "metadata": {
-        "contract_target_id": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i",
-        "measure_kind": "prepared_column",
-        "geography_level": "local_authority",
-        "geography_id": "W06000010"
-      },
-      "value_operation": "linear_combination",
-      "value_operands": [
-        {
-          "weight": 1,
-          "source_concept": "welshgov.council_tax_dwellings.all_chargeable_dwellings",
-          "source_measure_id": "a1",
-          "label": "a1[I]",
-          "dimension_values": {
-            "council_tax_band": "I"
-          }
-        },
-        {
-          "weight": -1,
-          "source_concept": "welshgov.council_tax_dwellings.total_chargeable_empty_properties",
-          "source_measure_id": "h7",
-          "label": "h7[I]",
-          "dimension_values": {
-            "council_tax_band": "I"
-          }
-        },
-        {
-          "weight": -1,
-          "source_concept": "welshgov.council_tax_dwellings.total_chargeable_second_homes",
-          "source_measure_id": "h8",
-          "label": "h8[I]",
-          "dimension_values": {
-            "council_tax_band": "I"
-          }
-        }
-      ]
-    },
     {
       "name": "welshgov.council_tax_stock.by_area.band_i@W06000011",
       "ledger_selector": {

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json

@@ -42,16 +42,6 @@
     "local"
    ]
   },
-  "hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000@2025": {
-   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261026T091056Z-824870f6 (full gate report sha256 abf245413ca0809f9f261e650c352ef310d11e19960b8e4c5ade3bc57dddf411) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
-   "approved_by": "juaristi22",
-   "adjudication": "Gate-only sign-off of the local release's measured build, drafted from its run (microcosm#1301, microcosm#1396).",
-   "approved_on": "2026-10-26",
-   "expires_on": "2026-11-23",
-   "release_lines": [
-    "local"
-   ]
-  },
   "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_15000@2025": {
    "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_15000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261027T022836Z-d5f72865 (full gate report sha256 a859f46bd70604adac1b7d6cd419c6a3aae87828a0943d318b3722022e6b2e00) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
    "approved_by": "juaristi22",
@@ -72,18 +62,18 @@
     "local"
    ]
   },
-  "hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": {
-   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261102T182958Z-78667c3a (full gate report sha256 7f7d66cc44ab2370a126d344cba66a923be871291f0397ef4e8496bf060f57f8) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+  "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
    "approved_by": "juaristi22",
-   "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1428 (sign-off 2026-11-03)",
-   "approved_on": "2026-11-03",
-   "expires_on": "2026-12-01",
+   "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)",
+   "approved_on": "2026-11-04",
+   "expires_on": "2026-12-02",
    "release_lines": [
     "local"
    ]
   },
-  "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": {
-   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+  "hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
    "approved_by": "juaristi22",
    "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)",
    "approved_on": "2026-11-04",
@@ -92,22 +82,52 @@
     "local"
    ]
   },
-  "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025": {
-   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+  "hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_20000@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income.amount_by_total_income_band.band_20000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261107T102622Z-f52640d9 (full gate report sha256 4080fda251017f8ddf8ce72df29a16653d0d1db236820b6d3787e329bff71d53) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
    "approved_by": "juaristi22",
-   "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)",
-   "approved_on": "2026-11-04",
-   "expires_on": "2026-12-02",
+   "adjudication": "María's approval of the gate-only sign-off for the pair built from PolicyEngine/microcosm#1535 (microcosm#1301)",
+   "approved_on": "2026-11-07",
+   "expires_on": "2026-12-05",
    "release_lines": [
     "local"
    ]
   },
-  "hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025": {
-   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261104T000247Z-3a5b4051 (full gate report sha256 365f2878c6e3c8ca333486e9255632c5362c5b01a93d3fb699eca1ee22aa0795) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+  "hmrc.spi_region.taxpayers_by_region_200000_plus@S92000003@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc.spi_region.taxpayers_by_region_200000_plus@S92000003@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261107T102622Z-f52640d9 (full gate report sha256 4080fda251017f8ddf8ce72df29a16653d0d1db236820b6d3787e329bff71d53) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
    "approved_by": "juaristi22",
-   "adjudication": "microcosm#1301 route for the local cut built with microcosm#1491 (sign-off 2026-11-04)",
-   "approved_on": "2026-11-04",
-   "expires_on": "2026-12-02",
+   "adjudication": "María's approval of the gate-only sign-off for the pair built from PolicyEngine/microcosm#1535 (microcosm#1301)",
+   "approved_on": "2026-11-07",
+   "expires_on": "2026-12-05",
+   "release_lines": [
+    "local"
+   ]
+  },
+  "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_70_000_to_100_000@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_70_000_to_100_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261107T102622Z-f52640d9 (full gate report sha256 4080fda251017f8ddf8ce72df29a16653d0d1db236820b6d3787e329bff71d53) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+   "approved_by": "juaristi22",
+   "adjudication": "María's approval of the gate-only sign-off for the pair built from PolicyEngine/microcosm#1535 (microcosm#1301)",
+   "approved_on": "2026-11-07",
+   "expires_on": "2026-12-05",
+   "release_lines": [
+    "local"
+   ]
+  },
+  "hmrc/property_income_income_band_12_570_to_15_000@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row hmrc/property_income_income_band_12_570_to_15_000@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261107T102622Z-f52640d9 (full gate report sha256 4080fda251017f8ddf8ce72df29a16653d0d1db236820b6d3787e329bff71d53) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+   "approved_by": "juaristi22",
+   "adjudication": "María's approval of the gate-only sign-off for the pair built from PolicyEngine/microcosm#1535 (microcosm#1301)",
+   "approved_on": "2026-11-07",
+   "expires_on": "2026-12-05",
+   "release_lines": [
+    "local"
+   ]
+  },
+  "ons.population.female_19@2025": {
+   "reason": "Gate-only sign-off of the national target row ons.population.female_19@2025 on the local line (microcosm#1301). On dense build-1 attempt uk-local-candidate-f100-s42-20261107T102622Z-f52640d9 (full gate report sha256 4080fda251017f8ddf8ce72df29a16653d0d1db236820b6d3787e329bff71d53) it breached the target-fit release bound (max_abs_relative_error 0.25). It stays bound in the solve: this entry suppresses only the release fence on the local line, and a build in which it is back inside the bound fails the entry as stale.",
+   "approved_by": "juaristi22",
+   "adjudication": "María's approval of the gate-only sign-off for the pair built from PolicyEngine/microcosm#1535 (microcosm#1301)",
+   "approved_on": "2026-11-07",
+   "expires_on": "2026-12-05",
    "release_lines": [
     "local"
    ]

packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_battery_bindings.py

@@ -1812,12 +1812,14 @@ def test_local_default_target_surface_uses_metric_names_and_signed_deferrals(
         # taxpayers with it by constituency and authority: 2,022 cells, 2,016
         # of them compiled, less the 40 the rounded-thousand floor defers
         # (microcosm#1420: the 20 count cells HMRC publishes at 5,000 or fewer
-        # and their amounts).
-        assert result.details["candidate_targets"] == 27_168
+        # and their amounts). The pair built on microcosm#1535's merge defers
+        # Carmarthenshire's band-I cell, which the support check refused.
+        assert result.details["candidate_targets"] == 27_167
         assert result.details["reference_targets"] == 31_347
-        # Only the 4,179 signed area deferrals and absences remain (2,100
+        # Only the 4,180 signed area deferrals and absences remain (2,100
         # before microcosm#929 bound the Welsh and Scottish council-tax cells;
-        # Shetland band H is the one Scottish support deferral; microcosm#1123
+        # Shetland band H is the one Scottish support deferral and
+        # Carmarthenshire band I the one Welsh; microcosm#1123
         # adds the three higher rate taxpayer gaps; microcosm#1240 the six
         # high-value homes cells above; microcosm#1278 signs the two
         # small-cell rules, which defer 16 council-tax band cells and 192
@@ -1829,7 +1831,7 @@ def test_local_default_target_surface_uses_metric_names_and_signed_deferrals(
         # London, and the 40 under the rounded-thousand floor); the 1,011
         # household rows are ordinary Chronicle-compiled references.
         exclusions = result.details["reviewed_exclusions"]
-        assert len(exclusions) == 4_179
+        assert len(exclusions) == 4_180
         households = [
             name for name in exclusions if str(name).startswith("households@")
         ]