NZ: re-declare the ageing factors from the September 2026 QES

changelog.d/1507-nz-qes-september-2026-redeclaration.changed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Re-declare New Zealand's earnings ageing factors from Stats NZ's September 2026 quarter Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) and re-pin NZ's Chronicle feed to Chronicle `89178aaf`, whose NZ suite carries the September package from chronicle#405 and holds 12,370 consumer facts at schema v5. Each quarter now comes from the newest QES vintage that publishes it. Each TY2027 numerator averages the observed June and September 2026 quarters with two quarters projected from September at PREFU 2026's 2.7% growth (±0.5 points for the low and high profiles). The IRD TY2024 factors become 1.117460, 1.118491 and 1.119519; the P1 TY2026 factors 1.028904, 1.029853 and 1.030799; and the donor CY2024 factors 1.079413, 1.080408 and 1.081401. The observed TY2026-over-TY2024 factor stays 1.086069. The declarations hold from 2026-11-04 to 2027-02-02, the day before Stats NZ releases the December 2026 quarter. NZ's reference files, earnings bands and golden regenerate, and NZ's tests and calibration-targets doc move the values they pin.

docs/nz-calibration-targets.md

@@ -164,8 +164,9 @@ coarse stand-in table `ird_taxable_income_standin_ty2024` (G8-r2c F) carries
 the calibration rows. `tools/generate_nz_target_references.py` generates all
 four from the row formulas and checks every cut against the pinned feed's own
 band labels. Ageing scales the coarse cuts exactly by the selected factor and
-keeps fractional cents: under the central factor 1.117109, the first cut of
-$40,000 becomes 4,468,436 cents and $125,000 becomes 13,963,862.5 cents. Before matrix construction the calibration problem
+keeps fractional cents: under the September 2026 central factor 1.118491, the
+first cut of $40,000 becomes 4,473,964 cents and $125,000 becomes 13,981,137.5
+cents. Before matrix construction the calibration problem
 reports, for every cut, the weighted mass within $1, and for every band the
 fixed-weight change under the left-closed alternative. These diagnostics never
 change a target, and publisher reclassification is unavailable, because the

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/nz/chronicle_feed.json

@@ -3,14 +3,14 @@
   "country": "nz",
   "scope": "nz_calibration",
   "source_repo": "PolicyEngine/chronicle",
-  "source_commit": "8f4cfd573c0d6f580d9c51cd67e8f449a42ed174",
+  "source_commit": "89178aafff08d920cfa9ae9f96950bcfdc72685c",
   "build": "build-bundle --suite nz -> build-consumer-artifact",
   "artifact_schema_version": "policyengine_ledger.consumer_artifact.v2",
   "consumer_fact_schema_versions": [
-    "chronicle.consumer_fact.v4"
+    "chronicle.consumer_fact.v5"
   ],
-  "consumer_fact_schema_sha256": "d953306d6f01fbc64db4372d0262d3012ee590269f8a25b276b18dca0626c6a0",
-  "fact_row_count": 12368,
-  "facts_sha256": "03f5ea0fe60e6dc93a135ab32cd5cd6ffb56388e702a4734cdb515a956e36b18",
-  "manifest_sha256": "1ea2d1eeb122275a9ce7f861ca3e20e21dd695772c04ce9d71114168e92fe053"
+  "consumer_fact_schema_sha256": "acd33a091cd8d192be5d264e3e94c13e00afb6fd1972e57d4576ac55a54f6970",
+  "fact_row_count": 12370,
+  "facts_sha256": "8580143f726e3a95dfc1dcd89613a5a990b89af25f7fb19c488acf4690135fb5",
+  "manifest_sha256": "ea0cc7efa2da6b094ded7debc8abc06757a3b2255d76fb21951ae89f568e24a6"
 }