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Parity ledger: record B2's failure and the week's rulings - #550

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parity-ledger-b2-fail-20261018
Oct 20, 2026
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MaxGhenis merged 4 commits into
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parity-ledger-b2-fail-20261018

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Brings docs/parity-ledger.md up to date at ad42ecc0 (18 October 2026). The main change: B2, the registered 2010→2014 transport test of the forward-earnings law, failed (#42 comment 6252752628). The ledger now records that in four places:

  • the bottom line;
  • the forward-earnings row, with the deciding cell and the attempt ledger;
  • critical-path steps 1, 2 and 4;
  • a new Gate failed status term in the legend.

It also brings forward every row that moved since the last verification at 216acab1:

How the facts were checked.

Scope. This PR changes docs only, with no tests and no tier change. The paper's forward-earnings and Earnings Public-Use File passages need the same update, so that follows in a separate PR.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

ad42ecc

B2, the registered 2010→2014 transport test of the forward-earnings law,
failed on 18 October (#42 comment 6252752628): the projected prime-age
zero-earnings rate is about 35% above the PSID's. The ledger now says so
in the bottom line, the forward-earnings row and the critical path, and
adds a "Gate failed" status term.

Also brings forward the rows that moved since 11 October: gate_epuf_fill
locked and scored (#515, #516, #537); the #494 delayed-credit fix and
erratum diagnostic (#532, #538); R2 part (a) and R3 (#528, #529) and
G v2 (#530); U2's cleared loader and recorded spec steps (#524, #540,
#544, #546); Registration 19's code (#511) and the open Microcosm frame
defects; gate w1's family-A targets (#531). Adds rulings d1338, d1406,
d1408, d1414, d1418, d1597, d1606, d1649 and d1659, and corrects d637,
d745, d929, d947 and d1242.

Facts come from an independent read-only fact-check of every row at
2ef1053 (34 stale claims, each with sources), rechecked at ad42ecc for
#547, #548 and d1659.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…citation

- The bottom line says B2 failed with no later pass, since four earlier
  gates failed and then passed under amendments, and that the blind
  comparisons use none of the components these gates certify.
- Gate failed's non-admission consequence is scoped to B2.
- U2's step 4 computes counts and the named F17 component summaries
  (spec §4), not counts only.
- d1338 cites SSA Act §203(a)(5), 42 U.S.C. 403(a)(5).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- B2's seeds are household splits, and its 2012 and 2014 earnings come
  from the PSID's 2013 and 2015 interviews (ages at interview).
- The passing statistic is the 90th percentile of positive earnings.
- B2 is described as a further failed test of forward earnings.
- R2 part (b)'s refusal is stated as the code states it: an auxiliary
  deduction that frees binding family-maximum room. Grace years come
  from a separate helper.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…; step 2 states the rate

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis merged commit 5f917de into master Oct 20, 2026
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Merged at reviewed head 563afe9 (merge commit 5f917de) by the dynamics coordinator. Gates: gh pr checks exit 0, MERGEABLE, not a draft, no change requests. Docs only, so tier counts are unaffected.

Independent review ran four rounds, each on a standalone clone with a shell:

  • Round 1 (GPT-6.1 Sol, 20261018-144640-md550-review-b): requested changes on four minor points. U2 step 4's F17 summaries, the scope of Gate failed, "components these gates certify", and the §203(a)(5) citation.
  • Round 3 (Opus 5.5, 20261018-150125-md550-review-r3): confirmed those fixes, and checked the corrections carried from Paper: report B2's failure and gate_epuf_fill's scores #551 against code: household splits, 2013/2015 interviews, positive-earnings p90. It requested one wording fix, on what R2 part (b) readjusts.
  • Round 4 (Opus 5.5, 20261019-124532-md550-review-r4): APPROVE at 563afe9.

Fact base: a read-only fact-check of every row at 2ef1053, refutation-checked by a second agent, then rechecked at ad42ecc for #547, #548 and d1659.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the parity-ledger-b2-fail-20261018 branch October 20, 2026 06:49

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