MaxGhenis · Oct 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/nz-qes-prefu-earnings.added.md b/changelog.d/nz-qes-prefu-earnings.added.md
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+Add 26 Stats NZ QES all-sector ordinary-time and total weekly earnings levels
+per FTE for June 2023–June 2026, with exact workbook-vintage ownership, and
+seven Treasury PREFU 2026 published ordinary-time earnings growth assumptions
+for years ending June 2025–2031. Preserve the 2026 Forecast4 header and its
+footnote-qualified actual status; 2027–2031 are publisher projections. Include
+receipt-pinned artifacts, provenance, licences, labels and drift regressions.
diff --git a/chronicle/bundle.py b/chronicle/bundle.py
@@ -397,10 +397,13 @@
     "stats-nz-census-2023-weekly-rent-rc-18",
     "stats-nz-census-2023-weekly-rent-rc-99",
     "stats-nz-household-net-worth-2024",
+    "stats-nz-qes-average-weekly-earnings-june-2025",
+    "stats-nz-qes-average-weekly-earnings-june-2026",
     "stats-nz-subnational-population-estimates-2025",
     "stats-nz-subnational-population-ta-2025",
     "treasury-an24-01-fiscal-totals",
     "treasury-estimates-of-appropriations-2026-27",
+    "treasury-prefu26-economic-assumptions",
 )
 BUNDLE_SUITES = ("nz", "uk")
 

diff --git a/chronicle/source_package.py b/chronicle/source_package.py
@@ -243,6 +243,12 @@
     "stats-nz-census-2023-households-by-region-rc-99": Path(
         "stats_nz/census_2023_households_by_region/rc_99"
     ),
+    "stats-nz-qes-average-weekly-earnings-june-2025": Path(
+        "stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025"
+    ),
+    "stats-nz-qes-average-weekly-earnings-june-2026": Path(
+        "stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026"
+    ),
     "stats-nz-subnational-population-estimates-2025": Path(
         "stats_nz/subnational_population_estimates_2025"
     ),
@@ -622,6 +628,9 @@
     "msd-annual-report-benefit-expenses-2025": Path(
         "msd/annual_report_benefit_expenses_2025"
     ),
+    "treasury-prefu26-economic-assumptions": Path(
+        "treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions"
+    ),
     "treasury-an24-01-fiscal-totals": Path("treasury/an24_01_fiscal_totals"),
     "treasury-estimates-of-appropriations-2026-27": Path(
         "treasury/estimates_of_appropriations_2026_27"

diff --git a/db/data/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/manifest.yaml b/db/data/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/manifest.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+source_id: stats_nz
+package_id: qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025
+dataset: stats_nz_qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025
+source_page: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-june-2025-quarter/
+table: 'Table 7: Average weekly earnings for FTEs, by sector'
+license:
+  name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
+  url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
+  evidence_url: https://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/copyright/
+  notes: Licence attribution supplied by the hub; unchanged publisher workbook.
+files:
+  2025:
+    filename: quarterly-employment-survey-june-2025-quarter.xlsx
+    source_url: https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Labour-market-statistics/Labour-market-statistics-June-2025-quarter/Download-data/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2025-quarter.xlsx
+    sha256: 25053dcbd343320cad72e2896475eaebaf5f5bb0b5965ca788506ca15efcea30
+    size_bytes: 135784
+    fetched_at: '2026-10-22T07:57:28Z'
+    storage:
+      r2:
+        provider: r2
+        bucket: ledger-raw
+        key: raw/nz/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/2025/25053dcbd343320cad72e2896475eaebaf5f5bb0b5965ca788506ca15efcea30/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2025-quarter.xlsx
+        uri: r2://ledger-raw/raw/nz/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/2025/25053dcbd343320cad72e2896475eaebaf5f5bb0b5965ca788506ca15efcea30/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2025-quarter.xlsx
diff --git a/.../qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2025-quarter.xlsx b/.../qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2025-quarter.xlsx
diff --git a/db/data/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/manifest.yaml b/db/data/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/manifest.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+source_id: stats_nz
+package_id: qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026
+dataset: stats_nz_qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026
+source_page: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-june-2026-quarter/
+table: 'Table 7: Average weekly earnings for FTEs, by sector'
+license:
+  name: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
+  url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
+  evidence_url: https://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/copyright/
+  notes: Licence attribution supplied by the hub; unchanged publisher workbook.
+files:
+  2026:
+    filename: quarterly-employment-survey-june-2026-quarter.xlsx
+    source_url: https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Labour-market-statistics/Labour-market-statistics-June-2026-quarter/Download-data/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2026-quarter.xlsx
+    sha256: 1af2e7e37f1c108a2656842cf1f519c903e1a982bcdc03ee02d0ad888ebc3a97
+    size_bytes: 124556
+    fetched_at: '2026-10-22T07:57:28Z'
+    storage:
+      r2:
+        provider: r2
+        bucket: ledger-raw
+        key: raw/nz/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/2026/1af2e7e37f1c108a2656842cf1f519c903e1a982bcdc03ee02d0ad888ebc3a97/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2026-quarter.xlsx
+        uri: r2://ledger-raw/raw/nz/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/2026/1af2e7e37f1c108a2656842cf1f519c903e1a982bcdc03ee02d0ad888ebc3a97/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2026-quarter.xlsx
diff --git a/.../qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2026-quarter.xlsx b/.../qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/quarterly-employment-survey-june-2026-quarter.xlsx
diff --git a/db/data/treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions/manifest.yaml b/db/data/treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions/manifest.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+source_id: treasury
+package_id: treasury-prefu26-economic-assumptions
+dataset: prefu26_economic_assumptions
+source_page: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-2026
+table: PREFU 2026 Table 4.1 - Key economic assumptions for fiscal forecasts
+published_at: '2026-09-29'
+license: CC BY 4.0
+license_url: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-2026
+attribution: The Crown (New Zealand Treasury); written attribution, no reproduction of emblems, logos
+  or Coat of Arms.
+license_evidence: Publication page (hub supplied); workbook Index!A13:A14 explicitly records CC BY 4.0
+  and Crown attribution.
+notes: Original workbook bytes copied from the hub staging receipt unchanged. Declared R2 object is uploaded
+  by the hub before merge. Index and Table 4.1 used ranges are parsed; other sheets remain in the preserved
+  workbook and emit no facts.
+files:
+  2026:
+    filename: prefu26-charts-data.xlsx
+    source_url: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/prefu26-charts-data.xlsx
+    sha256: e2486375dde515d0722f8c3022f481804bb014beb83c81b8bfc99bc9426544d9
+    size_bytes: 664670
+    fetched_at: '2026-10-22T07:57:29Z'
+    storage:
+      r2:
+        provider: r2
+        bucket: ledger-raw
+        key: raw/nz/treasury/treasury-prefu26-economic-assumptions/2026/e2486375dde515d0722f8c3022f481804bb014beb83c81b8bfc99bc9426544d9/prefu26-charts-data.xlsx
+        uri: r2://ledger-raw/raw/nz/treasury/treasury-prefu26-economic-assumptions/2026/e2486375dde515d0722f8c3022f481804bb014beb83c81b8bfc99bc9426544d9/prefu26-charts-data.xlsx
diff --git a/db/data/treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions/prefu26-charts-data.xlsx b/db/data/treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions/prefu26-charts-data.xlsx
diff --git a/docs/pe-nz-source-checklist.md b/docs/pe-nz-source-checklist.md
@@ -69,7 +69,8 @@ tests, and record a verified `raw/nz/...` R2 URI.
 | `msd/nzs_vp_fact_sheet_june_2026` | [x] | [x] | [x] | Row 12: 46 June 2026 NZS/VP recipient count facts, including published additional-support and demographic cuts. Raw artifact published to its `raw/nz/msd/...` key and verified by SHA-256 on 2026-10-07. |
 | `msd/annual_report_benefit_expenses_2025` | [x] | [x] | [x] | Row 13: 11 actual FY2024/25 expense facts, fiscal_year 2024, published $000 × 1000. Accommodation Assistance 2,232,026; total 38,267,536 in source $000. Payment-definition evidence absent from staged annual-report PDF; the [Budget 2026 Estimates package](../packages/treasury/estimates_of_appropriations_2026_27/evidence.md) identifies Accommodation Supplement and Away from Home Allowance in the 2026/27 appropriation, without asserting unchanged FY2024/25 conditions. Raw artifact published to its `raw/nz/msd/...` key and verified by SHA-256 on 2026-10-07. |
 | `mbie/tenancy_bond_rents_tla_2026` | [x] | [x] | [x] | 5,663 administrative facts, August 2025–July 2026, the latest 12 months of MBIE's September 2026 TLA file (published 10 September 2026; MBIE calls the data provisional and subject to revision); 66 TA IDs plus ALL/NA. Raw CSV published to its `raw/nz/mbie/...` key and verified by SHA-256 on 2026-10-09. Source scope and TA-register caveats below. |
-| `stats_nz/qes_average_earnings_march_2026` | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | |
+| `stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025` and `stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026` (supersede the planned March 2026 row) | [x] | [x] | [x] | G8-d3: 26 actual, unadjusted all-sector average weekly earnings levels per FTE (QEMQ.SBSZ9A ordinary time and QEMQ.SBSZ9Z total), June 2023–June 2026. Two receipt-pinned workbook vintages, each quarter emitted once; ten overlap cells agree exactly. Full workbooks preserved, excluded sectors/overtime/change blocks not emitted. CC BY 4.0; both raw workbooks published to their `raw/nz/stats_nz/...` keys and verified by SHA-256 on 2026-10-23. [Cell and period evidence](../packages/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/evidence.md). |
+| `treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions` | [x] | [x] | [x] | G8-d3: seven published annual percentage changes in ordinary-time weekly earnings, years ending 30 June 2025–2031, Table 4.1!C17:I17. Footnote 4 qualifies 2026 Forecast4 earnings as actual; 2027–2031 are source projections. CC BY 4.0; receipt-pinned unchanged workbook, published to its `raw/nz/treasury/...` key and verified by SHA-256 on 2026-10-23. [Footnotes and exact cells](../packages/treasury/prefu26_economic_assumptions/evidence.md). |
 
 ### WFF source semantics
 

diff --git a/packages/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/evidence.md b/packages/stats_nz/qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2025/evidence.md
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+# June 2025 QES vintage
+
+This package emits only Table 7 P/T rows 13–16, June 2023–March 2024: eight
+published all-sector earnings levels. All sixteen workbook worksheets are
+preserved. June 2024–June 2025 overlap cells agree exactly with the June 2026
+vintage and are preserved but not emitted here. See the [shared cell, period,
+licence and guard evidence](../qes_average_weekly_earnings_june_2026/evidence.md).