MaxGhenis · Oct 21, 2026
diff --git a/AGENTS.md b/AGENTS.md
@@ -5,11 +5,23 @@ representation, and preserve provenance. Selection and measurement contracts liv
 in consumers such as Microcosm.
 
 Every fact value must trace to a publisher. The boundary is who asserted the
-value, not level versus projection: a publisher's own projection (CBO baseline,
-BFP outlook, SSA trustees, TPC/JCT score) is a fact typed
+value, not level versus projection: a government's own projection (CBO
+baseline, BFP outlook, SSA trustees) is a fact typed
 `assertion: source_projection`. PolicyEngine-computed values — aged, uprated,
 forecast, or reconciled levels — are never Chronicle facts.
 
+Chronicle holds government-produced records only. Before adding a source
+folder or package, confirm the publisher is part of a government and add or
+update its entry in `docs/source-publishers.yaml`; `tests/test_source_publishers.py`
+fails on an unclassified folder or a new non-government one. Do not add
+records from trade associations, charities, think tanks, universities,
+firms, or aggregators that republish government data: take the series from
+the government publisher instead. Comparisons against outside scores belong
+in PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard, not here. Edge cases (central banks,
+regulators, public corporations, intergovernmental bodies, government records
+on a third-party host) follow the 2026-10-21 amendment in
+`docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md`.
+
 Do not put Microcosm work in Chronicle:
 
 - no cross-source reconciliation

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -25,9 +25,9 @@ This repository provides:
 - **Sources**: Source file references, retrieval metadata, manifests, checksums,
   and provenance.
 - **Facts**: Source-backed claims represented with typed values, units,
-  geography, period, source table, and lineage. Publisher projections (CBO
-  baselines, BFP outlooks, SSA trustees tables, TPC/JCT scores) are facts
-  typed `assertion: source_projection`; measured outcomes are the default
+  geography, period, source table, and lineage. Government projections (CBO
+  baselines, BFP outlooks, SSA trustees tables) are facts typed
+  `assertion: source_projection`; measured outcomes are the default
   `assertion: observation`. Every fact also carries a required, closed
   `provenance_class` measurement basis; survey aggregates additionally name
   their `survey_instrument`.
@@ -57,6 +57,22 @@ fact's `period` is the period its value refers to. Consumers must enforce any
 contract that aligns it to another period (see
 [`docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md`](docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md)).
 
+Chronicle holds government-produced records only. A fact's publisher must be
+part of a government: a legislature or one of its offices, a ministry or
+department and its agencies, a statistics office, or a public body set up to
+publish official figures. Records from trade associations, charities, think
+tanks, universities, firms, and aggregators that republish government data
+are not Chronicle facts; when an aggregator republishes a government series,
+Chronicle takes it from the government publisher. Comparisons of PolicyEngine
+estimates against outside scores live in the separate
+[scorecard](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard).
+[`docs/source-publishers.yaml`](docs/source-publishers.yaml) names the
+publisher of every source folder, and the ADR's 2026-10-21 amendment lists
+the proposed treatment of edge cases (central banks, regulators, public
+corporations, intergovernmental bodies, third-party hosts) and the three
+folders that predate the rule (`isc`, `ici`, `kff`), which stay until their
+migration is ruled on.
+
 | Layer | Owns | Examples |
 |-------|------|----------|
 | Chronicle Sources | Source artifacts and provenance | URLs, checksums, source files, parsed tables/cells |

diff --git a/chronicle/core.py b/chronicle/core.py
@@ -258,8 +258,8 @@ class AggregateFact:
     claim the publisher made: ``observation`` for measured or administered
     outcomes as published, ``source_projection`` for the publisher's own
     forward-looking estimate (CBO baselines, BFP outlooks, SSA trustees
-    tables, TPC/JCT scores). PolicyEngine-computed values are never facts;
-    aged, uprated, or reconciled levels belong in downstream builds.
+    tables). PolicyEngine-computed values are never facts; aged, uprated,
+    or reconciled levels belong in downstream builds.
 
     ``provenance_class`` records the publisher's measurement basis and has no
     default. Survey aggregates additionally require ``survey_instrument``;

diff --git a/docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md b/docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md
@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 # ADR: Chronicle is a facts-only store
 
 Status: accepted 2026-07-02 (supersedes the facts-plus-projections split
-originally proposed in issue #71)
+originally proposed in issue #71); amended 2026-10-21 to admit
+government-produced records only (see the amendment at the end)
 
 ## Decision
 
@@ -44,7 +45,7 @@ Instead of projection objects, Chronicle contributes two guarantees:
   projections would churn on every CBO update and every aging-model version
   bump, turning an auditable chronicle into a store of volatile derivations.
 - **The consumer set does not need it.** Thesis does not want
-  PolicyEngine-computed aging; validation comparators (TPC, JCT scores) are
+  PolicyEngine-computed aging; a government's own estimates are
   source-published and therefore facts; the only consumer of
   PolicyEngine-computed aged values is Microcosm calibration, so that is
   where the code belongs (PolicyEngine/microcosm#116).
@@ -74,3 +75,61 @@ Instead of projection objects, Chronicle contributes two guarantees:
   superseded; Belgian contracts also live consumer-side.
 - Geography vintage translation (microcosm#205) follows the same pattern: a
   declared consumer-side transform over facts, never an edit to them.
+
+## Amendment 2026-10-21: government-produced records only
+
+Chronicle admits a record only when a government produced it. The publisher
+that asserted the value must be part of a national, subnational, or
+supranational government: a legislature or one of its offices (CBO, JCT), a
+ministry or department and its agencies (DWP, HMRC, the IRS), a statistics
+office (ONS, Statbel, Stats NZ), or a public body that a government set up to
+publish official figures (OBR, the Federal Planning Bureau). Government
+estimates of a policy change, such as JCT revenue estimates, are government
+records like any other.
+
+- Records from trade associations, charities, think tanks, universities,
+  firms, and secondary aggregators are not Chronicle facts, however reliable.
+  When an aggregator republishes a government series, Chronicle takes the
+  series from the government publisher.
+- Comparisons of PolicyEngine estimates against outside scores and analyses
+  live in the separate scorecard (PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard), which
+  keeps its own provenance. This amendment removed TPC from the source
+  projection examples in this ADR, the README, AGENTS.md, the governance doc,
+  and the `AggregateFact` docstring: TPC is not a government publisher, and
+  Chronicle never held a TPC package.
+- The rule turns on who produced a record, not where it was fetched. A
+  government record that reached Chronicle through a third-party host keeps
+  the government as its publisher.
+- `docs/source-publishers.yaml` names the publisher of every source folder and
+  classifies it; `tests/test_source_publishers.py` fails when a folder is
+  unclassified or a new non-government folder appears.
+
+### Edge cases (proposed treatment, awaiting a ruling)
+
+Until a ruling, existing packages in these categories stay as they are.
+
+| Category | Where | Proposed treatment | Basis |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Central banks | `nbb`, `federal_reserve`; central-bank rows in the Thesis observation journal (`codex/thesis-ledger-facts`: Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve) | In, for statistics and policy decisions they publish under a public mandate | The Belgian State holds half of the NBB's shares, and the NBB compiles Belgium's national accounts on behalf of the National Accounts Institute; the Federal Reserve Board is a federal agency |
+| Regulators | `ofgem`, `orr` | In | GOV.UK lists both as non-ministerial departments |
+| Public corporations and other public bodies | `nithc`, `slc` | In, for records of their own statutory functions | NITHC (Translink) is a public corporation set up under the Transport Act (Northern Ireland) 1967 and wholly owned by government; GOV.UK lists SLC as an executive non-departmental public body |
+| Intergovernmental bodies | `eurostat`, `jrc` | In | Both are directorates-general of the European Commission |
+| Government records on a third-party host | `dwp/pip_daily_living_foi_2025` (a DWP FOI reply on WhatDoTheyKnow); NRS census tables mirrored by the UK Data Service; `welshgov/brma_boundaries_2012` (University of Edinburgh DataShare); `treasury/an24_01_fiscal_totals` (the NZ Treasury Analytics & Insights GitHub organisation); journal rows fetched through ALFRED or the Internet Archive | In, with the government named as publisher; prefer the government-hosted copy when one exists | The producer decides, not the host |
+| Government-funded work published by others | None today | Out, unless a government body publishes it under its own name | A university or contractor is then the publisher |
+
+### Packages that do not meet the rule
+
+These predate the amendment. Each stays until its migration is ruled on, so
+no consumer loses a fact before a replacement exists.
+
+| Folder | Publisher | Government replacement |
+|---|---|---|
+| `isc` (`isc-annual-census-2023` to `isc-annual-census-2026`) | Independent Schools Council, the umbrella body for UK independent-school associations | DfE *Schools, pupils and their characteristics*, which counts independent-school pupils in England (all independent schools, not ISC members only) |
+| `ici` (`ici-fact-book-table-30`) | Investment Company Institute, the trade association of US regulated funds | IRS SOI Table 1.4 capital gain distributions, already in Chronicle (a narrower concept: distributions reported on Form 1040) |
+| `kff` (`kff-marketplace-effectuated-enrollment`) | KFF, a nonprofit; this table republishes CMS data | CMS effectuated enrollment reports; Chronicle already holds the 2022 edition (`cms_aca/effectuated_enrollment_2022`) |
+
+Two smaller items fall under the same rule: `db/pe_source_inventory.py` lists
+a Disability Rights UK news page under `source_id: dwp` and the ISC census
+page as source artifacts, and the curated Statbel NIS 2025 crosswalk
+(`statbel/nis_2025_commune_crosswalk`) cites publisys.eu next to Statbel's
+REFNIS file.
diff --git a/docs/chronicle-governance.md b/docs/chronicle-governance.md
@@ -7,9 +7,9 @@ Microcosm turns those facts into active, aged, reconciled calibration targets.
 ## Boundary
 
 The store is facts-only, and the line is who asserted the value, not level
-versus projection. A publisher's own forward-looking estimate — a CBO
-baseline, a BFP outlook, an SSA trustees table, a TPC or JCT score — is a
-source-backed claim like any other and enters Chronicle as a fact typed
+versus projection. A government's own forward-looking estimate — a CBO
+baseline, a BFP outlook, an SSA trustees table — is a source-backed claim
+like any other and enters Chronicle as a fact typed
 `assertion: source_projection`. A value PolicyEngine computed — an aged,
 uprated, forecast, or reconciled level — is never a fact, whatever object it
 hides in. This keeps three properties intact: every value in Chronicle traces to
@@ -31,6 +31,11 @@ Chronicle may:
 
 Chronicle must not:
 
+- hold records that a non-government publisher produced (a trade
+  association, charity, think tank, university, firm, or an aggregator that
+  republishes government data); every source folder's publisher is named and
+  classified in `docs/source-publishers.yaml`, and edge cases follow the
+  2026-10-21 amendment to `docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md`
 - reconcile across sources
 - age facts to a build year
 - store PolicyEngine-computed values (aged, uprated, forecast, or reconciled

diff --git a/docs/source-publishers.yaml b/docs/source-publishers.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+# Publisher of every Chronicle source folder (packages/<folder> and
+# db/data/<folder>; every package lives in the same folder as its data).
+#
+# Chronicle holds government-produced records only: see the 2026-10-21
+# amendment to docs/adr-chronicle-facts-only.md. tests/test_source_publishers.py
+# fails when a folder is missing here, when an entry names no folder, or when a
+# non-government folder appears beyond the three that predate the rule.
+#
+# status:
+#   government      part of a national, subnational, or supranational government
+#   edge_case       a category whose treatment awaits a ruling (edge_case names it);
+#                   existing packages stay until then
+#   non_government  predates the rule; stays until its migration is ruled on
+schema_version: chronicle.source_publishers.v1
+folders:
+  bea:
+    publisher: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
+    status: government
+  bfp:
+    publisher: Federal Planning Bureau (Belgium)
+    status: government
+    notes: Same publisher as fpb, under its French acronym.
+  cbo:
+    publisher: Congressional Budget Office
+    status: government
+  census:
+    publisher: U.S. Census Bureau
+    status: government
+  cms_aca:
+    publisher: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
+    status: government
+  cms_medicaid:
+    publisher: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
+    status: government
+  cms_medicare:
+    publisher: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
+    status: government
+  cms_nhe:
+    publisher: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
+    status: government
+  defra:
+    publisher: Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
+    status: government
+  desnz:
+    publisher: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
+    status: government
+  dfc_ni:
+    publisher: Department for Communities (Northern Ireland)
+    status: government
+  dfe:
+    publisher: Department for Education
+    status: government
+  dfi_ni:
+    publisher: Department for Infrastructure (Northern Ireland)
+    status: government
+  dft:
+    publisher: Department for Transport
+    status: government
+  dwp:
+    publisher: Department for Work and Pensions
+    status: government
+    notes: >-
+      pip_daily_living_foi_2025 is a DWP freedom-of-information reply fetched
+      from WhatDoTheyKnow, a third-party host.
+  eurostat:
+    publisher: Eurostat (European Commission)
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: intergovernmental
+  federal_reserve:
+    publisher: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: central_bank
+  fpb:
+    publisher: Federal Planning Bureau (Belgium)
+    status: government
+  hhs_acf:
+    publisher: Administration for Children and Families (HHS)
+    status: government
+  hhs_acf_liheap:
+    publisher: Administration for Children and Families (HHS)
+    status: government
+  hmlr:
+    publisher: HM Land Registry
+    status: government
+  hmrc:
+    publisher: HM Revenue & Customs
+    status: government
+  ici:
+    publisher: Investment Company Institute
+    status: non_government
+    notes: Trade association of US regulated funds.
+  ird:
+    publisher: Inland Revenue (New Zealand)
+    status: government
+  irs_soi:
+    publisher: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income
+    status: government
+  isc:
+    publisher: Independent Schools Council
+    status: non_government
+    notes: Umbrella body for UK independent-school associations.
+  jct:
+    publisher: Joint Committee on Taxation
+    status: government
+  jrc:
+    publisher: Joint Research Centre (European Commission)
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: intergovernmental
+  kff:
+    publisher: KFF
+    status: non_government
+    notes: Nonprofit; the packaged table republishes CMS effectuated enrollment.
+  lps:
+    publisher: Land & Property Services (Department of Finance, Northern Ireland)
+    status: government
+  mbie:
+    publisher: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (New Zealand)
+    status: government
+    notes: Tenancy bond data from Tenancy Services (tenancy.govt.nz).
+  mhclg:
+    publisher: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
+    status: government
+  msd:
+    publisher: Ministry of Social Development (New Zealand)
+    status: government
+  nbb:
+    publisher: National Bank of Belgium
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: central_bank
+  nisra:
+    publisher: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
+    status: government
+  nithc:
+    publisher: Northern Ireland Transport Holding Company (Translink)
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: public_corporation
+  nrs:
+    publisher: National Records of Scotland
+    status: government
+    notes: >-
+      Some census 2022 tables are fetched from UK Data Service mirrors, a
+      third-party host.
+  obr:
+    publisher: Office for Budget Responsibility
+    status: government
+  ofgem:
+    publisher: Ofgem
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: regulator
+  onem_rva:
+    publisher: National Employment Office (ONEM/RVA, Belgium)
+    status: government
+  ons:
+    publisher: Office for National Statistics
+    status: government
+  onss:
+    publisher: National Social Security Office (ONSS/RSZ, Belgium)
+    status: government
+  opgroeien:
+    publisher: Opgroeien regie (Flemish Government agency)
+    status: government
+  orr:
+    publisher: Office of Rail and Road
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: regulator
+  scotgov:
+    publisher: Scottish Government
+    status: government
+  sfpd:
+    publisher: Federal Pensions Service (SFP/SFPD, Belgium)
+    status: government
+  slc:
+    publisher: Student Loans Company
+    status: edge_case
+    edge_case: public_corporation
+  spf_finances:
+    publisher: Federal Public Service Finance (Belgium), released by Statbel
+    status: government
+  ssa:
+    publisher: Social Security Administration
+    status: government
+  statbel:
+    publisher: Statbel (Belgian statistical office)
+    status: government
+    notes: >-
+      The curated nis_2025_commune_crosswalk cites publisys.eu next to
+      Statbel's own REFNIS file.
+  stats_nz:
+    publisher: Stats NZ
+    status: government
+  treasury:
+    publisher: The Treasury (New Zealand)
+    status: government
+    notes: >-
+      an24_01_fiscal_totals is fetched from the NZ Treasury Analytics &
+      Insights GitHub organisation, a third-party host.
+  usda_snap:
+    publisher: USDA Food and Nutrition Service
+    status: government
+  voa:
+    publisher: Valuation Office Agency (now part of HMRC)
+    status: government
+  welshgov:
+    publisher: Welsh Government
+    status: government
+    notes: >-
+      brma_boundaries_2012 is fetched from University of Edinburgh DataShare,
+      a third-party host.