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Fix intro fare-reduction figure to match the 12.5% the pipeline applies - #11
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The intro said the estimate applies DfT's observed 6.3% all-ticket reduction; the pipeline applies the derived 12.5% (range 10-15%), as the Announcement and Methodology tabs already say. Keep 6.3% as the observed evaluation figure the 12.5% is derived from. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Folded into #12, which now carries this commit. |
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What was inconsistent
The live page contradicted itself:
dashboard/app/page.jsx:85-86): "The estimate applies DfT's observed 6.3% all-ticket reduction to simulated household fare spending."Which value the code uses
The pipeline applies 12.5%:
src/bus_fare_cap/sources.py:45-47setsFARE_CAP_REDUCTION_LOW/CENTRAL/HIGH = 0.10 / 0.125 / 0.15; the comment at lines 34-41 says the 6.3% headline is not used directly.src/bus_fare_cap/pipeline.py:196usesreduction = sources.FARE_CAP_REDUCTION_CENTRAL.data/bus_fare_cap_results.json(identical todashboard/public/data/) recordsfare_reduction: 0.125andbaseline_fare_spending_bn: 2.182. £2.182bn × 12.5% = £273m (the £3-to-£2 cut alone). Blending three months at 12.5% with nine at 20.8% (12.5% plus the 8.3% cap-existence wedge) gives 18.72%, or £409m, the headline. At 6.3% the £3-to-£2 cut would be about £137m.The 6.3% is a real DfT figure: the evaluation's observed all-ticket fall under the previous £2 cap, on a 2022 ticket mix. It is the starting point of the derivation, not the applied rate.
What changed
The intro sentence now states the 12.5% (range 10–15%) for the £3-to-£2 step, keeps the 6.3% as the observed evaluation figure, and notes that the current-law headline also counts the cap's continued existence. No calculation or number changed. README, the Methodology tab, the Announcement tab and the page metadata already used 12.5% or did not mention a rate.
Checks
ruff check src testsandpytest -q(8 passed)bun run buildsucceeds/uk/bus-fare-capwith headless Chrome and confirmed the new intro text🤖 Generated with Claude Code