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feat: e-processes for an i.i.d. null grow at most at the bipolar rate in expectation [RR26, Lemma 3.3] #413
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There was a problem hiding this comment. Choose a reason for hiding this commentThe reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more. 🟡 proof-quality — request_changes
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| /- | ||
| Copyright (c) 2026 LMLExplore contributors. All rights reserved. | ||
| Released under Apache 2.0 license as described in the file LICENSE. | ||
| Authors: LMLExplore contributors | ||
| -/ | ||
| module | ||
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| public import LMLExplore.EValues.BipolarRate.Basic | ||
| public import LMLExplore.EValues.EProcess | ||
| public import LMLExplore.Probability.ProductMeasure | ||
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| /-! | ||
| # E-processes for an i.i.d. null grow at most at the bipolar rate, in expectation | ||
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| Let `S₁` be a set of probability measures on `𝓧` (the null) and `Q₁` a probability measure on `𝓧` | ||
| (the alternative). The observations are the coordinates of `ℕ → 𝓧`, with the i.i.d. laws | ||
| `Measure.infinitePi fun _ ↦ P`, `P ∈ S₁`, and the filtration `Filtration.piLE`, whose σ-algebra at | ||
| time `n` is generated by the observations `0, …, n`. The value at time `n` of an e-process for the | ||
| i.i.d. null is a function of the first `n + 1` observations with expectation at most one under the | ||
| null, that is, an `n + 1`-sample e-variable. So its expected logarithm under the i.i.d. law of `Q₁` | ||
| is at most `maxLogGrowth Q₁ S₁ (n + 1)`, hence at most `(n + 1) * bipolarRate Q₁ S₁`: no e-process | ||
| grows faster than the bipolar rate, in expectation [RR26, Lemma 3.3]. | ||
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| The first `n` observations are `MeasureTheory.initSeg n`, whose law under an i.i.d. sequence is the | ||
| product law (`MeasureTheory.measurePreserving_initSeg`). | ||
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| ## Main statements | ||
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| * `ProbabilityTheory.eintegral_log_le_maxLogGrowth_of_dependsOn`: a function of the first `n` | ||
| observations with expectation at most one under the i.i.d. laws of the null has expected | ||
| logarithm at most `maxLogGrowth Q₁ S₁ n` under the i.i.d. law of `Q₁`. | ||
| * `ProbabilityTheory.IsEProcess.eintegral_log_le_maxLogGrowth`, | ||
| `ProbabilityTheory.IsEProcess.eintegral_log_le_mul_bipolarRate`: the bound for the value of an | ||
| e-process at time `n`, by `maxLogGrowth Q₁ S₁ (n + 1)` and by `(n + 1) * bipolarRate Q₁ S₁`. | ||
| * `ProbabilityTheory.IsEProcess.eintegral_log_div_le_bipolarRate`, | ||
| `ProbabilityTheory.IsEProcess.limsup_eintegral_log_div_le_bipolarRate`: the expected logarithm | ||
| of an e-process at time `n`, divided by the number `n + 1` of observations it has seen, is at | ||
| most the bipolar rate, and so is its `limsup` [RR26, Lemma 3.3]. | ||
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| ## References | ||
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| * [RR26] A. Ram and A. Ramdas, *The optimal betting wealth growth rate*, arXiv:2604.25280v1. | ||
| -/ | ||
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| public section | ||
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| open MeasureTheory Filter | ||
| open scoped ENNReal Topology | ||
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| namespace ProbabilityTheory | ||
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| variable {𝓧 : Type*} {m𝓧 : MeasurableSpace 𝓧} {Q₁ : Measure 𝓧} {S₁ : Set (Measure 𝓧)} | ||
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| /-! ### Functions of the first observations as e-variables of a sample -/ | ||
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| /-- A function of the first `n` observations with expectation at most one under the i.i.d. laws of | ||
| the members of `S₁` is an `n`-sample e-variable, composed with the initial segment. -/ | ||
| lemma exists_isEVar_eq_comp_initSeg [Nonempty 𝓧] (hS₁ : ∀ P ∈ S₁, IsProbabilityMeasure P) | ||
| {F : (ℕ → 𝓧) → ℝ≥0∞} {n : ℕ} (hF : Measurable F) (hFn : DependsOn F (Set.Iio n)) | ||
| (h_null : ∀ P ∈ S₁, ∫⁻ ω, F ω ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ P) ≤ 1) : | ||
| ∃ G : (Fin n → 𝓧) → ℝ≥0∞, | ||
| IsEVar G ((fun P ↦ Measure.pi fun _ : Fin n ↦ P) '' S₁) ∧ F = G ∘ initSeg n := by | ||
| obtain ⟨G, hG, rfl⟩ := exists_measurable_eq_comp_initSeg hF hFn | ||
| refine ⟨G, IsEVar.of_lintegral_le_one ?_ hG ?_, rfl⟩ | ||
| · rintro _ ⟨P, hP, rfl⟩ | ||
| have := hS₁ P hP | ||
| infer_instance | ||
| · rintro _ ⟨P, hP, rfl⟩ | ||
| have := hS₁ P hP | ||
| rw [← (measurePreserving_initSeg P n).lintegral_comp hG] | ||
| exact h_null P hP | ||
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| /-- A function of the first `n` observations with expectation at most one under the i.i.d. laws of | ||
| the members of `S₁` has expected logarithm, under the i.i.d. law of `Q₁`, at most the maximal | ||
| expected logarithm of an `n`-sample e-variable. -/ | ||
| theorem eintegral_log_le_maxLogGrowth_of_dependsOn (Q₁ : Measure 𝓧) [IsProbabilityMeasure Q₁] | ||
| (hS₁ : ∀ P ∈ S₁, IsProbabilityMeasure P) {F : (ℕ → 𝓧) → ℝ≥0∞} {n : ℕ} (hF : Measurable F) | ||
| (hFn : DependsOn F (Set.Iio n)) | ||
| (h_null : ∀ P ∈ S₁, ∫⁻ ω, F ω ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ P) ≤ 1) : | ||
| ∫ᵉ ω, ENNReal.log (F ω) ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ Q₁) ≤ maxLogGrowth Q₁ S₁ n := by | ||
| have := nonempty_of_isProbabilityMeasure Q₁ | ||
| obtain ⟨G, hGe, rfl⟩ := exists_isEVar_eq_comp_initSeg hS₁ hF hFn h_null | ||
| calc ∫ᵉ ω, ENNReal.log ((G ∘ initSeg n) ω) ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ Q₁) | ||
| _ = ∫ᵉ x, (logUtility ∘ G) x ∂Measure.pi (fun _ : Fin n ↦ Q₁) := by | ||
| rw [← (measurePreserving_initSeg Q₁ n).map_eq, | ||
| eintegral_map (logUtility.measurable.comp hGe.measurable) (measurable_initSeg n)] | ||
| simp only [Function.comp_apply, logUtility_apply] | ||
| _ ≤ maxLogGrowth Q₁ S₁ n := by | ||
| rw [maxLogGrowth_def] | ||
| exact hGe.eintegral_le_maxUtility _ _ | ||
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| /-! ### E-processes -/ | ||
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| variable {E : ℕ → (ℕ → 𝓧) → ℝ≥0∞} | ||
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| /-- The value at time `n` of an e-process for the i.i.d. laws of the members of `S₁`, in the | ||
| filtration of the observations, has expected logarithm under the i.i.d. law of `Q₁` at most the | ||
| maximal expected logarithm of an `n + 1`-sample e-variable: at time `n` the process has seen | ||
| `n + 1` observations. -/ | ||
| theorem IsEProcess.eintegral_log_le_maxLogGrowth (Q₁ : Measure 𝓧) [IsProbabilityMeasure Q₁] | ||
| (hS₁ : ∀ P ∈ S₁, IsProbabilityMeasure P) | ||
| (hE : IsEProcess E (Filtration.piLE (X := fun _ : ℕ ↦ 𝓧)) | ||
| ((fun P ↦ Measure.infinitePi fun _ : ℕ ↦ P) '' S₁)) (n : ℕ) : | ||
| ∫ᵉ ω, ENNReal.log (E n ω) ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ Q₁) ≤ | ||
| maxLogGrowth Q₁ S₁ (n + 1) := by | ||
| refine eintegral_log_le_maxLogGrowth_of_dependsOn Q₁ hS₁ (hE.measurable n) ?_ fun P hP ↦ ?_ | ||
| · exact fun ω ω' h ↦ (hE.adapted n).dependsOn_of_piLE | ||
| fun i hi ↦ h i (Nat.lt_succ_of_le (Set.mem_Iic.1 hi)) | ||
| · have := hS₁ P hP | ||
| simpa using (hE.isEVar n).lintegral_le_measure_univ _ ⟨P, hP, rfl⟩ | ||
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| /-- The value at time `n` of an e-process for an i.i.d. null has expected logarithm, under the | ||
| i.i.d. law of `Q₁`, at most `n + 1` times the bipolar rate [RR26, Lemma 3.3]. -/ | ||
| theorem IsEProcess.eintegral_log_le_mul_bipolarRate (Q₁ : Measure 𝓧) [IsProbabilityMeasure Q₁] | ||
| (hS₁ : ∀ P ∈ S₁, IsProbabilityMeasure P) | ||
| (hE : IsEProcess E (Filtration.piLE (X := fun _ : ℕ ↦ 𝓧)) | ||
| ((fun P ↦ Measure.infinitePi fun _ : ℕ ↦ P) '' S₁)) (n : ℕ) : | ||
| ∫ᵉ ω, ENNReal.log (E n ω) ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ Q₁) ≤ | ||
| ((n + 1 : ℕ) : EReal) * bipolarRate Q₁ S₁ := | ||
| (hE.eintegral_log_le_maxLogGrowth Q₁ hS₁ n).trans | ||
| (maxLogGrowth_le_mul_bipolarRate Q₁ S₁ n.succ_ne_zero) | ||
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| /-- The expected logarithm of an e-process for an i.i.d. null at time `n`, per observation seen, is | ||
| at most the bipolar rate. -/ | ||
| theorem IsEProcess.eintegral_log_div_le_bipolarRate (Q₁ : Measure 𝓧) [IsProbabilityMeasure Q₁] | ||
| (hS₁ : ∀ P ∈ S₁, IsProbabilityMeasure P) | ||
| (hE : IsEProcess E (Filtration.piLE (X := fun _ : ℕ ↦ 𝓧)) | ||
| ((fun P ↦ Measure.infinitePi fun _ : ℕ ↦ P) '' S₁)) (n : ℕ) : | ||
| (∫ᵉ ω, ENNReal.log (E n ω) ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ Q₁)) / ((n + 1 : ℕ) : EReal) ≤ | ||
| bipolarRate Q₁ S₁ := | ||
| (EReal.div_le_iff_le_mul (by exact_mod_cast n.succ_pos) (EReal.natCast_ne_top _)).2 | ||
| (hE.eintegral_log_le_mul_bipolarRate Q₁ hS₁ n) | ||
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| /-- No e-process for an i.i.d. null grows faster than the bipolar rate, in expectation: the | ||
| expected logarithm at time `n` under the i.i.d. law of `Q₁`, divided by the number `n + 1` of | ||
| observations seen, has `limsup` at most the bipolar rate [RR26, Lemma 3.3]. -/ | ||
| theorem IsEProcess.limsup_eintegral_log_div_le_bipolarRate (Q₁ : Measure 𝓧) | ||
| [IsProbabilityMeasure Q₁] (hS₁ : ∀ P ∈ S₁, IsProbabilityMeasure P) | ||
| (hE : IsEProcess E (Filtration.piLE (X := fun _ : ℕ ↦ 𝓧)) | ||
| ((fun P ↦ Measure.infinitePi fun _ : ℕ ↦ P) '' S₁)) : | ||
| limsup (fun n : ℕ ↦ (∫ᵉ ω, ENNReal.log (E n ω) ∂Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ ↦ Q₁)) / | ||
| ((n + 1 : ℕ) : EReal)) atTop ≤ bipolarRate Q₁ S₁ := | ||
| limsup_le_iSup.trans (iSup_le fun n ↦ hE.eintegral_log_div_le_bipolarRate Q₁ hS₁ n) | ||
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| end ProbabilityTheory |
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