feat(miner): wire Phase 7 calibration runner into calibration snapshot CLI

packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-cli.ts

@@ -24,11 +24,12 @@ import type { LedgerEntry } from "./event-ledger.js";
 import { MINER_PR_OUTCOME_EVENT } from "./pr-outcome.js";
 import { initPredictionLedger, resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath } from "./prediction-ledger.js";
 import type { PredictionLedgerEntry } from "./prediction-ledger.js";
-import type { PredictedVerdictRecord, ObservedOutcomeRecord, CalibrationReport } from "./calibration-types.js";
+import type { PredictedVerdictRecord, ObservedOutcomeRecord, CalibrationReport, CalibrationRow } from "./calibration-types.js";
 import { reportCliFailure, describeCliError } from "./cli-error.js";
+import { runHistoricalReplayCalibrationCycle, type CalibrationSnapshotPayload } from "./calibration-run.js";
 
 const CALIBRATION_USAGE =
-  "Usage: loopover-miner calibration [--json] | calibration backtest-threshold --candidate <x> [--json] | calibration apply-min-rank --candidate <x> --approve [--json] | calibration revert-min-rank --approve [--json]";
+  "Usage: loopover-miner calibration [--json] | calibration snapshot [--json] | calibration backtest-threshold --candidate <x> [--json] | calibration apply-min-rank --candidate <x> --approve [--json] | calibration revert-min-rank --approve [--json]";
 
 export type CalibrationCliDeps = {
   readFileSync?: typeof readFileSync;
@@ -125,6 +126,93 @@ function renderReportText(report: CalibrationReport): void {
   }
 }
 
+/** Map one {@link CalibrationRow} onto the engine's {@link PrOutcomeCalibrationInput} shape (#8317) —
+ *  field-for-field; `hold` is always present on the row so it always forwards. */
+export function prOutcomeFromCalibrationRow(row: CalibrationRow): {
+  mergeConfirmed: number;
+  mergeFalse: number;
+  closeConfirmed: number;
+  closeFalse: number;
+  hold: number;
+} {
+  return {
+    mergeConfirmed: row.mergeConfirmed,
+    mergeFalse: row.mergeFalse,
+    closeConfirmed: row.closeConfirmed,
+    closeFalse: row.closeFalse,
+    hold: row.hold,
+  };
+}
+
+/** `calibration snapshot [--json]` (#8317): run the Phase 7 calibration runner once per project row from
+ *  {@link buildCalibrationReport}, persist a `calibration_snapshot` ledger event per project (with the AMS
+ *  backtest track record attached when any runs exist), and print the results. Mirrors
+ *  {@link runBacktestThreshold}'s open/run/persist/print/finally shape. Does NOT pass a Phase 7 config —
+ *  no `.loopover-ams.yml` calibration-section reader exists yet, so the engine defaults to loop-disabled
+ *  (honest, not a workaround). */
+function runCalibrationSnapshot(args: string[], env: Record<string, string | undefined>, deps: CalibrationCliDeps): number {
+  const json = args.includes("--json");
+  const unknown = args.find((token) => token !== "--json");
+  if (unknown) {
+    return reportCliFailure(json, `Unknown option: ${unknown}. ${CALIBRATION_USAGE}`, 1);
+  }
+
+  let predictionStore;
+  let eventLedger;
+  try {
+    predictionStore = initPredictionLedger(resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath(env));
+    eventLedger = initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env));
+    const predictionRows = predictionStore.readPredictions();
+    const events = eventLedger.readEvents();
+    const report = buildCalibrationReport(toPredictionRecords(predictionRows), toOutcomeRecords(events));
+    const trackRecord = computeAmsBacktestTrackRecord(readAmsThresholdBacktestRuns(eventLedger));
+    // #8317: only attach a real history; an empty track record stays null so consumers can tell "no runs yet"
+    // from "runs exist with zero REGRESSED" without inventing a fabricated zero-run object at the CLI boundary.
+    const backtestTrackRecord = trackRecord.totalRuns > 0 ? trackRecord : null;
+
+    if (!report.hasSignal) {
+      const message = "calibration snapshot: no decided predictions yet (predictions need a realized merge/close outcome); nothing persisted.";
+      console.log(json ? JSON.stringify({ snapshots: [], reason: "no_decided_predictions" }) : message);
+      return 0;
+    }
+
+    const snapshots: Array<{ repoFullName: string; snapshot: CalibrationSnapshotPayload }> = [];
+    for (const row of report.rows) {
+      const cycle = runHistoricalReplayCalibrationCycle(
+        {
+          prOutcome: prOutcomeFromCalibrationRow(row),
+          repoFullName: row.project,
+          backtestTrackRecord,
+          ...(deps.nowMs !== undefined ? { now: new Date(deps.nowMs).toISOString() } : {}),
+        },
+        { eventLedger },
+      );
+      snapshots.push({ repoFullName: row.project, snapshot: cycle.snapshot });
+    }
+
+    if (json) {
+      console.log(JSON.stringify({ snapshots }, null, 2));
+    } else {
+      for (const entry of snapshots) {
+        const accuracy =
+          entry.snapshot.combinedAccuracy === null ? "n/a" : `${Math.round(entry.snapshot.combinedAccuracy * 100)}%`;
+        console.log(
+          `calibration snapshot ${entry.repoFullName}: enabled=${entry.snapshot.enabled} combined=${accuracy} ` +
+            `delta=${entry.snapshot.deltaFromBaseline === null ? "n/a" : entry.snapshot.deltaFromBaseline.toFixed(3)} ` +
+            `sources=${entry.snapshot.contributingSources.join(",") || "none"}`,
+        );
+      }
+      console.log(`calibration snapshot: persisted ${snapshots.length} project snapshot(s).`);
+    }
+    return 0;
+  } catch (error) {
+    return reportCliFailure(json, describeCliError(error));
+  } finally {
+    predictionStore?.close();
+    eventLedger?.close();
+  }
+}
+
 /** `calibration backtest-threshold --candidate <x>` (#8184): advisory replay of a candidate min-rank skip
  *  threshold against the taken-opportunity corpus. Prints the shared comparison renderer's report and
  *  persists the run event. Exit is nonzero ONLY on operational error -- never on verdict (the #8138
@@ -205,13 +293,14 @@ function runMinRankMutation(kind: "apply" | "revert", args: string[], env: Recor
 }
 
 /**
- * Run `loopover-miner calibration [--json]` (or one of the #8184/#8187 subcommands -- see
+ * Run `loopover-miner calibration [--json]` (or one of the #8184/#8187/#8317 subcommands -- see
  * CALIBRATION_USAGE). The bare form reads the prediction ledger + PR-outcome events, joins them into a
  * calibration report, and prints it (a JSON dump under `--json`, else a per-project text summary) along
  * with the corpus stats, the backtest track record (#8185), and any current backtest-cleared proposals
  * (#8186). Returns the process exit code: 0 on success, 1 on an unknown option.
  */
 export function runCalibrationCli(args: string[] = [], env: Record<string, string | undefined> = process.env, deps: CalibrationCliDeps = {}): number {
+  if (args[0] === "snapshot") return runCalibrationSnapshot(args.slice(1), env, deps);
   if (args[0] === "backtest-threshold") return runBacktestThreshold(args.slice(1), env, deps);
   if (args[0] === "apply-min-rank") return runMinRankMutation("apply", args.slice(1), env, deps);
   if (args[0] === "revert-min-rank") return runMinRankMutation("revert", args.slice(1), env, deps);

packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-run.ts

@@ -124,6 +124,8 @@ export interface RunCalibrationCycleInput {
   now?: string | Date | null;
   observedAt?: string | null;
   repoFullName?: string;
+  /** #8317 / #8185: AMS backtest track record to embed on the persisted snapshot. Omit/null when none. */
+  backtestTrackRecord?: SnapshotMeta["backtestTrackRecord"];
 }
 
 export interface RunCalibrationCycleDeps extends ScoreCompositeOptions {
@@ -373,6 +375,7 @@ export function runHistoricalReplayCalibrationCycle(
     replayRunId: (built.historicalReplay as Record<string, unknown> | null)?.replayRunId as string | null ?? null,
     observedAt: input.observedAt ?? ((built.historicalReplay as Record<string, unknown> | null)?.observedAt as string | null) ?? null,
     sampleSize: built.sampleSize,
+    ...(input.backtestTrackRecord !== undefined ? { backtestTrackRecord: input.backtestTrackRecord } : {}),
   });
   const recorded = deps.eventLedger
     ? recordCalibrationSnapshot(snapshot, { eventLedger: deps.eventLedger, repoFullName: input.repoFullName } as RecordCalibrationSnapshotOptions)

test/unit/miner-calibration-cli.test.ts

@@ -2,7 +2,20 @@ import { mkdtempSync, rmSync, writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
 import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
 import { join } from "node:path";
 import { afterEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
-import { runCalibrationCli, toAmsRealizedOutcomes } from "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-cli.js";
+
+// Instrument the .ts sources under CI's scoped `--changed` run: after `build:miner`, literal `.js` imports
+// resolve to emitted artifacts and leave coverage.include's `.ts` entries at 0% patch (same as #7796).
+vi.mock("../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-run.js", async () => {
+  const mod = "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-run.ts";
+  return import(mod);
+});
+
+const CALIBRATION_CLI_MODULE = "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-cli.ts";
+const CALIBRATION_RUN_MODULE = "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-run.ts";
+const calibrationRun = await import(CALIBRATION_RUN_MODULE);
+const { runCalibrationCli, toAmsRealizedOutcomes } = (await import(CALIBRATION_CLI_MODULE)) as typeof import("../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/calibration-cli.js");
+const { MINER_CALIBRATION_SNAPSHOT_EVENT } = calibrationRun;
+
 import { initEventLedger, resolveEventLedgerDbPath } from "../../packages/loopover-miner/lib/event-ledger.js";
 import {
   initPredictionLedger,
@@ -327,3 +340,218 @@ describe("calibration report sections (#8185/#8186)", () => {
     expect(parsed.backtestProposals[0]?.candidateThreshold).toBe(0.2);
   });
 });
+
+// ── #8317: calibration snapshot wires the Phase 7 runner into a real CLI caller ─────────────────────────────
+
+function seedPredictionFor(
+  env: Record<string, string | undefined>,
+  repoFullName: string,
+  targetId: number,
+  conclusion: string,
+): void {
+  const store = initPredictionLedger(resolvePredictionLedgerDbPath(env));
+  store.appendPrediction({
+    repoFullName,
+    targetId,
+    conclusion,
+    pack: "oss",
+    readinessScore: 90,
+    blockerCodes: [],
+    warningCodes: [],
+    engineVersion: "1.0.0",
+  });
+  store.close();
+}
+
+function seedOutcomeFor(
+  env: Record<string, string | undefined>,
+  repoFullName: string,
+  payload: Record<string, unknown>,
+): void {
+  const ledger = initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env));
+  ledger.appendEvent({ type: "pr_outcome", repoFullName, payload });
+  ledger.close();
+}
+
+describe("calibration snapshot (#8317)", () => {
+  it("persists one snapshot per project for a multi-project report (not one merged event)", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedPredictionFor(env, "acme/widgets", 1, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeFor(env, "acme/widgets", { prNumber: 1, decision: "merged" });
+    seedPredictionFor(env, "acme/gadgets", 2, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeFor(env, "acme/gadgets", { prNumber: 2, decision: "merged" });
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot"], env)).toBe(0);
+    const output = log.mock.calls.map((c) => String(c[0])).join("\n");
+    expect(output).toContain("calibration snapshot acme/widgets:");
+    expect(output).toContain("calibration snapshot acme/gadgets:");
+    expect(output).toContain("persisted 2 project snapshot(s)");
+
+    const ledger = initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env));
+    const snaps = ledger.readEvents().filter((e) => e.type === MINER_CALIBRATION_SNAPSHOT_EVENT);
+    ledger.close();
+    expect(snaps).toHaveLength(2);
+    expect(snaps.map((e) => e.repoFullName).sort()).toEqual(["acme/gadgets", "acme/widgets"]);
+  });
+
+  it("persists a single-project snapshot and embeds null backtestTrackRecord when no backtest runs exist", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedPrediction(env, 42, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeEvent(env, { prNumber: 42, decision: "merged" });
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot", "--json"], env)).toBe(0);
+    const parsed = JSON.parse(String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0])) as {
+      snapshots: Array<{ repoFullName: string; snapshot: { backtestTrackRecord: unknown } }>;
+    };
+    expect(parsed.snapshots).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(parsed.snapshots[0]).toMatchObject({ repoFullName: "acme/widgets" });
+    expect(parsed.snapshots[0]?.snapshot.backtestTrackRecord).toBeNull();
+
+    const ledger = initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env));
+    const snaps = ledger.readEvents().filter((e) => e.type === MINER_CALIBRATION_SNAPSHOT_EVENT);
+    ledger.close();
+    expect(snaps).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(snaps[0]?.payload).toMatchObject({ backtestTrackRecord: null });
+  });
+
+  it("embeds a populated backtestTrackRecord when backtest runs exist", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedTakenHistory(env);
+    seedPrediction(env, 42, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeEvent(env, { prNumber: 42, decision: "merged" });
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["backtest-threshold", "--candidate", "0.2"], env)).toBe(0);
+
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot", "--json"], env)).toBe(0);
+    const parsed = JSON.parse(String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0])) as {
+      snapshots: Array<{ snapshot: { backtestTrackRecord: { totalRuns: number; regressedRuns: number } | null } }>;
+    };
+    expect(parsed.snapshots[0]?.snapshot.backtestTrackRecord).toMatchObject({ totalRuns: 2, regressedRuns: 0 });
+  });
+
+  it("prints the no-signal message and persists NOTHING when the report has zero decided rows", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedPrediction(env, 1, "merge"); // pending — no outcome
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot"], env)).toBe(0);
+    expect(log.mock.calls.map((c) => String(c[0])).join("\n")).toContain("no decided predictions yet");
+
+    log.mockClear();
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot", "--json"], env)).toBe(0);
+    expect(JSON.parse(String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0]))).toEqual({
+      snapshots: [],
+      reason: "no_decided_predictions",
+    });
+
+    const ledger = initEventLedger(resolveEventLedgerDbPath(env));
+    expect(ledger.readEvents().filter((e) => e.type === MINER_CALIBRATION_SNAPSHOT_EVENT)).toHaveLength(0);
+    ledger.close();
+  });
+
+  it("rejects an unknown option on the snapshot subcommand", () => {
+    const err = vi.spyOn(console, "error").mockImplementation(() => {});
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot", "--bogus"], envForTempStores())).toBe(1);
+    expect(String(err.mock.calls[0]?.[0])).toContain("Unknown option");
+  });
+
+  it("emits JSON when ledger open fails on snapshot with --json", () => {
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+    const err = vi.spyOn(console, "error").mockImplementation(() => {});
+    vi.spyOn(predictionLedger, "initPredictionLedger").mockImplementation(() => {
+      throw new Error("corrupt_prediction_ledger");
+    });
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot", "--json"], envForTempStores())).toBe(2);
+    expect(JSON.parse(String(log.mock.calls[0]?.[0]))).toEqual({
+      ok: false,
+      error: "corrupt_prediction_ledger",
+    });
+    expect(err).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+
+  it("forwards deps.nowMs into the Phase 7 cycle runner", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedPrediction(env, 42, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeEvent(env, { prNumber: 42, decision: "merged" });
+    const cycleSpy = vi.spyOn(calibrationRun, "runHistoricalReplayCalibrationCycle");
+    const nowMs = Date.parse("2026-07-09T12:00:00.000Z");
+
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot"], env, { nowMs })).toBe(0);
+    expect(cycleSpy).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+      expect.objectContaining({ now: new Date(nowMs).toISOString() }),
+      expect.anything(),
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("renders n/a for null combinedAccuracy and deltaFromBaseline in text mode", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedPrediction(env, 42, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeEvent(env, { prNumber: 42, decision: "merged" });
+    vi.spyOn(calibrationRun, "runHistoricalReplayCalibrationCycle").mockReturnValue({
+      result: {} as never,
+      snapshot: {
+        enabled: false,
+        combinedAccuracy: null,
+        baselineAccuracy: 0,
+        deltaFromBaseline: null,
+        autonomyIncreasePermitted: false,
+        replayHarnessHold: false,
+        replayHarnessStatus: "missing",
+        replayRunDue: false,
+        holdReasons: [],
+        contributingSources: [],
+        replayRunId: null,
+        observedAt: null,
+        replaySampleSize: 0,
+        backtestTrackRecord: null,
+      },
+      recorded: null,
+      historicalReplay: null,
+      compositeScore: null,
+      sampleSize: 0,
+      scores: [],
+    });
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot"], env)).toBe(0);
+    const output = log.mock.calls.map((c) => String(c[0])).join("\n");
+    expect(output).toContain("calibration snapshot acme/widgets: enabled=false combined=n/a delta=n/a");
+  });
+
+  it("renders numeric combinedAccuracy and deltaFromBaseline in text mode", () => {
+    const env = envForTempStores();
+    seedPrediction(env, 42, "merge");
+    seedOutcomeEvent(env, { prNumber: 42, decision: "merged" });
+    vi.spyOn(calibrationRun, "runHistoricalReplayCalibrationCycle").mockReturnValue({
+      result: {} as never,
+      snapshot: {
+        enabled: true,
+        combinedAccuracy: 0.856,
+        baselineAccuracy: 0.7,
+        deltaFromBaseline: 0.156,
+        autonomyIncreasePermitted: true,
+        replayHarnessHold: false,
+        replayHarnessStatus: "healthy",
+        replayRunDue: false,
+        holdReasons: [],
+        contributingSources: ["pr_outcome"],
+        replayRunId: null,
+        observedAt: null,
+        replaySampleSize: 0,
+        backtestTrackRecord: null,
+      },
+      recorded: null,
+      historicalReplay: null,
+      compositeScore: 0.856,
+      sampleSize: 1,
+      scores: [0.856],
+    });
+    const log = vi.spyOn(console, "log").mockImplementation(() => {});
+
+    expect(runCalibrationCli(["snapshot"], env)).toBe(0);
+    const output = log.mock.calls.map((c) => String(c[0])).join("\n");
+    expect(output).toContain("calibration snapshot acme/widgets: enabled=true combined=86% delta=0.156 sources=pr_outcome");
+  });
+});