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BTC price-path prediction game - freehand drawing UI, 4-component scoring engine backtested on 7 months of real data, transparent payout curve

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Draw The Chart

Draw The Chart (DTC) is a BTC price-path prediction game where the player draws the expected future move instead of placing a binary bet or managing a leveraged position.

The current repo is a sandbox-first MVP focused on the hardest parts of the product:

  • drawing interaction
  • deterministic scoring
  • payout transparency
  • backtest calibration

Stack

  • TypeScript
  • React frontend
  • Node / Express sandbox API
  • lightweight-charts for chart rendering
  • Vitest for scoring and constraint tests

Product Scope

Current MVP scope:

  • BTC only
  • fixed horizons: 15m, 1h, 6h, 24h, 7d
  • historical sandbox rounds
  • freehand future-path drawing normalized into control points
  • score breakdown and payout preview
  • shareable seed-based sandbox rounds
  • JSON replay export after settlement
  • local sandbox journal / leaderboard backed by real browser-saved rounds

Key Directories

  • src/scoring: pure scoring engine and payout logic
  • src/backtest: calibration harness and baseline strategies
  • src/ui: app shell, pages, chart overlays, and drawing UX
  • src/server: sandbox API
  • WHITEPAPER.md: full product whitepaper

Local Development

Install dependencies:

npm install

Run the frontend:

npm run dev

Run the sandbox API:

npm run server

Core Scripts

  • npm run dev: start the Vite app
  • npm run server: start the sandbox API on port 3001
  • npm test: run scoring and drawing-constraint tests
  • npm run backtest: run the scoring calibration harness
  • npm run economics: print scoring baselines plus payout-retention / bankroll-risk metrics
  • npm run whitepaper:export: export markdown, HTML, and DOCX whitepaper artifacts into public/
  • npm run build: build server types, export docs, and build the frontend

Sandbox API Surfaces

Useful sandbox endpoints:

  • GET /health
  • GET /config
  • GET /protocol/manifest
  • GET /rounds
  • GET /rounds/:id/replay
  • GET /rounds/:id/verify

Whitepaper Artifacts

The whitepaper source of truth is WHITEPAPER.md.

npm run whitepaper:export generates:

  • public/WHITEPAPER.md
  • public/whitepaper-full.html
  • public/DrawTheChart_Whitepaper_v1.1.docx

This keeps the in-app links and downloadable docs aligned with the repo source.

Current State

Strongest parts today:

  • calibrated scoring baselines
  • payout curve tuned against retention and tail-risk guardrails
  • sandbox reveal flow
  • deterministic seed-based round reproduction
  • protocol manifest and commitment verification endpoints
  • improved chart and draw interaction
  • more deliberate product visual language

Still not production-ready:

  • live bankroll and exposure management
  • persistence
  • wallets and balances
  • production oracle / settlement pipeline
  • exchange-grade licensed charting stack

About

BTC price-path prediction game - freehand drawing UI, 4-component scoring engine backtested on 7 months of real data, transparent payout curve

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