chore(skills): track keel-asset-scout in the repo, and record today's measurements in it

[eaitbrahim]

Moves the scout skill to project scope and puts it under version control. It previously lived
only in ~/.claude/skills/, outside git, with a single .bak as its entire history.

Project scope is the correct home: every path, gate and experiment the skill references is keel's,
so it means nothing in a session rooted elsewhere. There is now exactly one copy — the
user-level one has been retired (parked in ~/.claude/skill-backups/, not deleted). A second copy
is a second source of truth, and the two drift silently.

Tracked via git add -f, because .gitignore:34 ignores .claude/. That is the same exception
the two review-fix-merge-pr skills already use — following existing precedent rather than
inventing a location.

Why version control matters more here than for a typical skill: most of this document is not
procedure — it is recorded reasoning about measurements that cost real compute to produce. Why
stationarity is never a filter, why a small-sample profit factor is a lottery ticket, why the
engine's own invariants are unobservable from a proposer. An untracked file loses the argument
along with the rule, and the next person re-derives both the hard way.

Content added today — all additive

All 13 original sections are intact, including every guardrail: Do NOT, Rationalizations, the
citation-fabrication warning, and Output 2's rejection history (the only record of why an asset
was passed over, since keel deliberately has no rejection table).

Added	Anchored to
"Taker math controls the field"	~2.5% round-trip, levied on the search not the edge; viable intersection vacant across 24 assets
"What has already been measured"	the three experiment documents, read the restatement first
Expansion refuted as a performance fix	turtle_breakout negative on all 24 — a 25th cannot fix it. Still valid for power, compliance, future rules
cost_regime	a result at 5bp does not transfer to a 1.2% taker venue
sample_size	rsi_meanrev 1.1631 on n=38 → 0.8396 across 82 cells at n≥100
evaluation_window	ZEC compressed 92.7% of lifetime PnL into one regime atop three losing years
not_already_covered	the skill's own example, entry_lookback: 55, sits inside an already-swept grid
Fill-model framing	entries fill at next-bar open as market orders (#258); a technique assuming a resting limit will not execute as described
4 Rationalizations rows	incl. "this backtest looks clean, the numbers are all plausible"

Two things deliberately NOT added

Both were proposed and declined, with the reasoning written into the file so the next person to
propose them can see why rather than relitigating:

A check on the pending-lifespan invariant. It's an AssertionError inside backtest() — it
raises rather than logs, so a violation ends the run and produces nothing to inspect.
Unobservable from a proposer that never runs a backtest.

A stationarity rejection threshold. ZEC under pullback_continuation is the only asset-rule
pair in the study with no losing complete year — at 0.875 gross. Any stationarity gate
passes that and rejects ZEC-turtle, which at least made money gross. Stationarity is a
diagnostic, never a filter.

Verification

• The committed copy is byte-identical to the live project-scoped file in the working checkout.
• The file notes in its own text that being gitignored does not mean untracked here — the trap
  that would otherwise make a future edit look uncommitted.
• No symlink is involved and no user-level copy remains, so there is nothing to keep in sync.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code