docs: record the live-seeded rules as a deliberate, bounded standing exception

config.live-sandbox.yaml

@@ -58,6 +58,41 @@ allowlist:
   - ADA
   - XLM
 
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# STANDING EXCEPTION: the five live rules bypassed the promotion gate, deliberately, and stay.
+#
+# keel-live.db rules 1-5 were seeded straight to `status=live` on 2026-07-24 with promoted_at
+# NULL. `keel rules seed` printed "Do not leave live-seeded rules in place afterwards." They have
+# been left in place. That is a decision, reviewed 2026-08-08 and recorded here rather than left
+# silent -- the same standard docs/experiments/2026-07-20-allowlist-screen-first-run.md set for
+# PAXG: "The one thing not to do is leave it silently exempt because it was already there."
+#
+# WHY KEEP THEM. The promotion floor is min_trades=100 PER RULE. This strategy cannot reach it.
+# Measured 2026-08-08 by backtesting each rule over ~5.02 years of daily bars:
+#   BTC  13 trades = 2.59/yr -> 100 trades in ~39 years
+#   ETH  13 trades = 2.59/yr -> ~39 years
+#   XLM   8 trades = 1.59/yr -> ~63 years
+#   ADA   6 trades = 1.19/yr -> ~84 years
+#   PAXG  4 trades = 3.20/yr -> ~31 years
+# Waiting for the gate is not a slower path to the same place; it is no path. The sandbox exists
+# to accumulate the live evidence the gate demands and cannot itself produce. Demoting these
+# rules would end the experiment without substituting anything for it.
+#
+# WHAT BOUNDS THE RISK. Not the promotion gate -- it never ran. Instead: the caps below
+# (max_exposure_usd 200 total at once, max_per_order_usd 100), the 18 un-overridable guards.py
+# rails, rail 1's allowlist above, and rail 14's monthly subscription allowance. The bypass is of
+# the EVIDENCE gate, not of the SAFETY rails, and those are separate mechanisms.
+#
+# WHAT THIS IS NOT. Not a precedent for adding assets (see the allowlist note above), not a
+# reason to raise caps, and not a claim these rules are validated -- they are not, and neither
+# `promoted_at` nor any backtest here says otherwise.
+#
+# REVISIT IF: caps are raised above this sandbox's few-dollars-of-damage scale; the rule set
+# changes; a rule starts trading materially more often than the table above; or this sandbox is
+# treated as evidence for anything beyond itself. Full working:
+# docs/experiments/2026-08-07-unvalidated-skip-set-reassessment.md and docs/go-live-runbook.md §3.
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
 target_weights:
   BTC: 0.30
   ETH: 0.20

docs/go-live-runbook.md

@@ -76,6 +76,46 @@ Once promoted, record the change: `python scripts/rule_manifest.py export --db <
 `deploy/live-rules.json`. A fresh deployment re-seeds from constructor defaults and will otherwise
 bring back a differently-sized rule (see `docs/RELEASING.md`).
 
+### Standing exception: the sandbox's five live-seeded rules
+
+This section covers the *act* of short-circuiting the gate. The supervised-live sandbox has been
+running in that state since **2026-07-24**, and that ongoing state is recorded here so it is a
+decision on the record rather than an oversight nobody re-examined.
+
+`keel-live.db` rules 1–5 (`turtle_breakout` on BTC/ETH/PAXG/ADA/XLM) carry `status = live` with
+**`promoted_at IS NULL`** — seeded directly, never promoted. `rules seed` printed *"Do not leave
+live-seeded rules in place afterwards."* They were left in place. **Reviewed 2026-08-08; kept
+deliberately.**
+
+**Why they are kept.** `min_trades` is 100 *per rule*, and this strategy cannot reach it.
+Backtesting each rule over ~5.02 years of daily bars on 2026-08-08:
+
+| rule | trades | rate | years to 100 trades |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| BTC | 13 | 2.59/yr | ~39 |
+| ETH | 13 | 2.59/yr | ~39 |
+| XLM | 8 | 1.59/yr | ~63 |
+| ADA | 6 | 1.19/yr | ~84 |
+| PAXG | 4 | 3.20/yr | ~31 |
+
+Waiting for the gate is not a slower route to the same destination — it is no route. The sandbox
+exists to accumulate the live evidence the promotion gate demands and cannot itself generate.
+Demoting these rules would end that experiment without putting anything in its place.
+
+**What bounds the risk instead.** Not the promotion gate, which never ran. The caps
+(`max_exposure_usd` 200 total at once, `max_per_order_usd` 100), the eighteen un-overridable
+`guards.py` rails, rail 1's allowlist, and rail 14's monthly allowance. **The bypass is of the
+evidence gate, not the safety rails** — separate mechanisms, and only the first was skipped.
+
+**What it is not.** Not a precedent for admitting assets, not a reason to raise caps, and not a
+claim that these five rules are validated. They are not: no walk-forward or PBO run has ever
+covered ADA or XLM, and none of the five clears any promotion axis. See
+`docs/experiments/2026-08-07-unvalidated-skip-set-reassessment.md`.
+
+**Revisit if** caps rise above this sandbox's few-dollars-of-damage scale; the rule set changes; a
+rule begins trading materially more often than the table above; or this sandbox starts being
+treated as evidence for anything beyond itself.
+
 ## 4. Run one cycle, in confirm mode, and watch
 
 ```bash