Record the BTC DCA rule as live in the deployment manifest - #162
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Rule 6 (`dca`, BTC-USD, `budget_usd: 25`, weekly) was promoted candidate -> paper -> live on 2026-08-03, with `--force` at both steps: a DCA rule has no stop and no target, so `backtest()` opens a position that never closes and the promotion gate only ever sees `n_trades=0` against `min_trades: 100`. It can never clear the floor on its own. This is keel's first live rule that fires on a schedule rather than on a market setup -- the five turtles have been live since go-live and have never once signalled, because price has sat 3-27% under the 40-day Donchian entry on every product. Manifest regenerated from keel-live.db, not hand-edited. The `budget_usd: "25"` this records is the whole point of the file: `keel init` on a fresh box would seed the constructor default of 50 instead. Rail 17 (withdrawal capability) was attested `--enabled` the same day, which is what actually unblocked BUYs -- it had been failing closed since go-live and would have vetoed a turtle breakout too, not just this. That attestation expires after 7 days and is deliberately not automatable, so it does not live in this file. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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One-line manifest change, regenerated from
keel-live.dbrather than hand-edited:Rule 6 (
dca, BTC-USD,budget_usd: 25, weekly cadence) was promotedcandidate -> paper -> liveon 2026-08-03.Why it needed
--force, twiceA DCA rule has no stop and no target.
backtest()opens a position that never closes, so every trade staysopen, the aggregates exclude it, and the promotion gate seesn_trades=0againstmin_trades: 100. It cannot clear the floor — not with more history, not ever. That is the structural casepromote --forcedocuments, now also written down in the go-live runbook.(It also needs
--granularity ONE_DAYon the gated path, becauseDcanever setsself.granularitythe wayTurtleBreakoutdoes. Moot under--force, which skips the backtest.)Why this file matters
budget_usd: "25"is the entire point of the manifest.keel initon a rebuilt box seeds from constructor defaults and would bring the rule back at50, unpromoted — twice the money, on a machine that otherwise looks correctly provisioned.Context
This is keel's first live rule that fires on a schedule rather than on a market setup. The five turtles have been live since go-live and have never signalled once: price has sat 3–27% below the 40-day Donchian entry on every product, closest being PAXG at 3.09%.
Rail 17 (withdrawal capability) was attested
--enabledthe same day, and that is what actually unblocked BUYs. It had been failing closed since go-live and would have vetoed the first turtle breakout too — the rails had simply never been exercised against a real signal. That attestation expires after 7 days and is deliberately not automatable, so it is account state, not repo state, and does not belong in this file.First order fires on the next cadence boundary, Thu 2026-08-06, and only at a terminal — the launchd job runs headless in confirm mode and fails closed without a TTY.
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