Stock Valuation Project

Author: Aidan Klimek

This project is a Python-based stock valuation tool designed to estimate a company’s intrinsic value using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and comparables (comps) methods—automated through a GUI.

How It Works

Users enter:

• A stock ticker (e.g., AAPL)
• Probabilities for economic scenarios (upside, base, and downside cases)

The system:

1. DCF Model:

• Projects free cash flows based on CapIQ estimates (manually input via CSV)
• Applies economic case adjustments:
  • Upside case: +10% FCF
  • Downside case: -10% FCF
  • Base case: CapIQ inputs as-is
• Calculates terminal value using both Gordon Growth and Exit Multiple methods
• Discounts all cash flows using WACC, which is calculated using data from Yahoo Finance

2. Comps Model:

• Filters comparable companies by sector and market cap using a custom stocks.csv dataset (sourced from Nasdaq)
• Pulls valuation multiples:
  • EV/EBITDA
  • EV/Revenue
  • P/E
  • P/B
• Uses sector-based weightings from sector_rules.json to calculate a fair value estimate

3. Final Output:

• Returns two implied upsides based on the DCF model (one using Gordon Growth and one using Exit Multiple)
• Returns a comps-based upside
• Combines results using sector-specific weightings to present a final implied upside in the GUI

Features

• Valuation via both DCF and comps methodologies
• Scenario analysis using upside, base, and downside case projections
• Terminal value calculated using two methods for flexibility
• Automatically acquires company data via Yahoo Finance API
• Sector-specific valuation weightings using a JSON config
• GUI interface for easy use—no coding required by the user
• Modular codebase (separate scripts for WACC, DCF, comps, etc.)

Assumptions

• CapIQ FCF estimates are accurate representations of expected performance
• Upside/Downside cases are modeled with simple ±10% adjustments from base projections
• Sector weightings in sector_rules.json reflect industry standards
• Comparable companies are most similar when filtered by sector and market cap
• WACC is calculated using publicly available market data (via Yahoo Finance)

Planned Improvements

• Add automated CapIQ data pulling (if API access becomes available)
• Tweak sector_rules.json to provide more accurate valuations to other analysts
• Improve comps selection
• Allow the user to select terminal value method preference directly from the GUI
• Fix comps valuation (getting too low of upside)