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docs: add a three-track user manual and absorb the existing user guide #428

Description

@w7-mgfcode

Summary

docs/user-guide/ grew organically into eight overlapping files with no index, mixed audiences, and PRP-referential framing. It has no single entry point and some of it has drifted from the code.

Add a navigable docs/manual/ organised into three tracks, and absorb the user-guide content into it.

Scope

Three tracks, matching the product's real audiences:

  • Operator — concepts, installation, quickstart, seeding, running the stack, operations.
  • Analyst — dashboard tour, forecasting, backtesting, champion selector, demand & planning, chat & knowledge. (A dashboard user who never opens a terminal is a real persona here.)
  • Integrator — API reference, code architecture, data model, artifacts & registry, extending, CI & quality gates.

Plus shared references: configuration, troubleshooting, FAQ, glossary.

Conventions per chapter: a Purpose: / Intended reader: header pair, a "What you'll accomplish" section, dense cross-linking, and a "Next" pointer.

Evidence discipline: every stated number traces to app/core/config.py, a fixed constant, or an authoritative module. Runtime-dependent figures (durations, accuracy, which model wins) are explained rather than asserted.

Drift corrected along the way

  • docs/user-guide/feature-reference.md listed 7 model types; app/shared/model_taxonomy.py defines 11 (5 baseline, 4 tree, 2 additive).
  • It also described 7 data-platform tables; there are 10 (adds exogenous_signal, replenishment_event, sales_returns).

Related: #376 tracks the same class of drift (stale slice count) in docs/_base/.

Disposition of docs/user-guide/

  • Six guides become short redirect stubs pointing at their new chapters.
  • showcase-manual-demo-guide.md (reviewer QA procedure) and showcase-walkthrough.md (contains unshipped PRP-38..41 roadmap) are kept intact with a pointer banner — neither is user-manual content.

Validation

  • Every internal link and anchor fragment in docs/manual/ resolves.
  • No chapter is orphaned from the index.

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