From a4514af838905f3d868c98cd444a0789ccf1ea2e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: ***** <721466+soodoku@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 21:32:41 -0700
Subject: [PATCH 1/6] Add directly labeled rating charts and full-history team
panels
---
DESCRIPTION | 1 +
R/pipeline.R | 40 +-
R/visualization.R | 113 ++
README.md | 11 +-
data/build/manifest.json | 7 +-
figs/elo/manifest.json | 24 +-
figs/elo/odi.png | Bin 495240 -> 325803 bytes
figs/elo/odi.svg | 938 ++++++++++++++++
figs/elo/odi_history.png | Bin 0 -> 468887 bytes
figs/elo/odi_history.svg | 1593 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
figs/elo/t20i.png | Bin 324760 -> 305223 bytes
figs/elo/t20i.svg | 943 ++++++++++++++++
figs/elo/t20i_history.png | Bin 0 -> 337066 bytes
figs/elo/t20i_history.svg | 1493 +++++++++++++++++++++++++
figs/elo/test.png | Bin 418799 -> 271147 bytes
figs/elo/test.svg | 942 ++++++++++++++++
figs/elo/test_history.png | Bin 0 -> 392137 bytes
figs/elo/test_history.svg | 1385 +++++++++++++++++++++++
out/analysis/elo/manifest.json | 7 +-
out/release/elo/index.md | 51 +-
out/release/elo/manifest.json | 62 +-
out/release/elo/odi.png | Bin 495240 -> 325803 bytes
out/release/elo/odi.svg | 938 ++++++++++++++++
out/release/elo/odi_history.png | Bin 0 -> 468887 bytes
out/release/elo/odi_history.svg | 1593 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
out/release/elo/t20i.png | Bin 324760 -> 305223 bytes
out/release/elo/t20i.svg | 943 ++++++++++++++++
out/release/elo/t20i_history.png | Bin 0 -> 337066 bytes
out/release/elo/t20i_history.svg | 1493 +++++++++++++++++++++++++
out/release/elo/test.png | Bin 418799 -> 271147 bytes
out/release/elo/test.svg | 942 ++++++++++++++++
out/release/elo/test_history.png | Bin 0 -> 392137 bytes
out/release/elo/test_history.svg | 1385 +++++++++++++++++++++++
renv.lock | 53 +
scripts/check.R | 1 +
scripts/pipeline.R | 1 +
tests/testthat/helper-pipeline.R | 1 +
tests/testthat/test-pipeline.R | 2 +-
tests/testthat/test-visualization.R | 36 +
39 files changed, 14935 insertions(+), 63 deletions(-)
create mode 100644 R/visualization.R
create mode 100644 figs/elo/odi.svg
create mode 100644 figs/elo/odi_history.png
create mode 100644 figs/elo/odi_history.svg
create mode 100644 figs/elo/t20i.svg
create mode 100644 figs/elo/t20i_history.png
create mode 100644 figs/elo/t20i_history.svg
create mode 100644 figs/elo/test.svg
create mode 100644 figs/elo/test_history.png
create mode 100644 figs/elo/test_history.svg
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/odi.svg
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/odi_history.png
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/odi_history.svg
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/t20i.svg
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/t20i_history.png
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/t20i_history.svg
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/test.svg
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/test_history.png
create mode 100644 out/release/elo/test_history.svg
create mode 100644 tests/testthat/test-visualization.R
diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION
index c1fd385..4a66a1a 100644
--- a/DESCRIPTION
+++ b/DESCRIPTION
@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ Imports:
digest,
EloRating,
ggplot2,
+ ggrepel,
httr2,
jsonlite,
readr,
diff --git a/R/pipeline.R b/R/pipeline.R
index f85bd54..9ea34de 100644
--- a/R/pipeline.R
+++ b/R/pipeline.R
@@ -101,30 +101,22 @@ read_analysis <- function(directory) {
list(manifest = manifest, latest = read("latest"), monthly = read("monthly"), updates = read("updates"))
}
-chart_data <- function(latest, monthly, format_name) {
- leaders <- head(latest[latest$format == format_name & latest$is_active, ], 10)
- history <- monthly[monthly$format == format_name & monthly$team_id %in% leaders$team_id, ]
- history$team <- leaders$team[match(history$team_id, leaders$team_id)]
- history
-}
-
visualize_data <- function(input, output) {
data <- read_analysis(input)
- .data <- rlang::.data
+ styles <- chart_styles(data$latest)
replace_directory(output, function(directory) {
for (format in unique(data$latest$format)) {
- history <- chart_data(data$latest, data$monthly, format)
- chart <- ggplot2::ggplot(history, ggplot2::aes(x = .data$date, y = .data$rating, colour = .data$team)) +
- ggplot2::geom_line(linewidth = 0.45) +
- ggplot2::theme_minimal(base_size = 11) +
- ggplot2::labs(
- title = paste(format, toupper(data$manifest$model), "ratings"),
- subtitle = paste("Month-end history of the current top ten active teams · through", data$manifest$as_of),
- x = NULL, y = "Rating", colour = NULL,
- caption = "Completed matches only; no smoothing or interpolation. Independent of ICC rankings."
- ) +
- ggplot2::theme(panel.grid.minor = ggplot2::element_blank())
- ggplot2::ggsave(file.path(directory, paste0(tolower(format), ".png")), chart, width = 11, height = 6, dpi = 150)
+ charts <- ratings_charts(data, format, styles)
+ for (view in names(charts)) {
+ stem <- paste0(tolower(format), if (view == "history") "_history" else "")
+ height <- if (view == "history") 12 else 7
+ ggplot2::ggsave(file.path(directory, paste0(stem, ".png")), charts[[view]],
+ width = 12, height = height, dpi = 180, bg = "white"
+ )
+ ggplot2::ggsave(file.path(directory, paste0(stem, ".svg")), charts[[view]],
+ device = grDevices::svg, width = 12, height = height, bg = "white"
+ )
+ }
}
manifest <- list(
analysis_sha256 = sha256(file.path(input, "manifest.json")),
@@ -152,10 +144,16 @@ write_report <- function(data, path) {
lines <- c(
lines, paste0("## ", format), "",
paste("Most recent recorded result:", data$manifest$last_result[[format]]), "",
+ paste0("![", format, " recent rating history](", tolower(format), ".png)"), "",
+ paste0("[Download recent-history SVG](", tolower(format), ".svg)"), "",
+ "", "Full history by team
", "",
+ paste0("![", format, " full rating histories](", tolower(format), "_history.png)"), "",
+ paste0("[Download full-history SVG](", tolower(format), "_history.svg)"), "",
+ " ", "", "### Current ratings", "",
"| Rank | Team | Rating | Rated matches | Last rated match |",
"| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | --- |",
sprintf("| %s | %s | %s | %s | %s |", rows$rank, label, rows$rating, rows$rated_matches, rows$last_rated_match),
- "", paste0("![", format, " rating history](", tolower(format), ".png)"), ""
+ ""
)
}
writeLines(head(lines, -1L), path, useBytes = TRUE)
diff --git a/R/visualization.R b/R/visualization.R
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9800dea
--- /dev/null
+++ b/R/visualization.R
@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+chart_teams <- function(latest, format_name) {
+ teams <- latest[latest$format == format_name & latest$is_active, ]
+ head(teams[order(-teams$rating, teams$team_id), ], 10)
+}
+
+chart_styles <- function(latest) {
+ ids <- sort(unique(unlist(lapply(unique(latest$format), function(format) chart_teams(latest, format)$team_id))))
+ colours <- grDevices::adjustcolor(
+ grDevices::palette.colors(10, "Tableau 10"), red.f = 0.7, green.f = 0.7, blue.f = 0.7
+ )
+ list(
+ colours = setNames(rep(colours, length.out = length(ids)), ids),
+ lines = setNames(rep(rep(c("solid", "longdash", "dotdash"), each = 5), length.out = length(ids)), ids)
+ )
+}
+
+chart_data <- function(latest, updates, format_name, start = NULL) {
+ teams <- chart_teams(latest, format_name)
+ if (!nrow(teams)) stop("No active rated teams to plot for ", format_name)
+ updates <- updates[updates$format == format_name & updates$date <= max(teams$date), ]
+ history <- do.call(rbind, lapply(1:2, function(side) {
+ data.frame(
+ team_id = updates[[paste0("team", side, "_id")]], date = updates$date,
+ rating = updates[[paste0("team", side, "_after")]], sequence = seq_len(nrow(updates))
+ )
+ }))
+ history <- history[history$team_id %in% teams$team_id, ]
+ history <- history[order(history$date, history$sequence), ]
+ history <- history[!duplicated(history[c("team_id", "date")], fromLast = TRUE), c("team_id", "date", "rating")]
+ history <- rbind(history, teams[c("team_id", "date", "rating")])
+ history <- history[!duplicated(history[c("team_id", "date")], fromLast = TRUE), ]
+ if (!is.null(start)) {
+ previous <- history[history$date <= start, ]
+ previous <- previous[!duplicated(previous$team_id, fromLast = TRUE), ]
+ previous$date <- rep(start, nrow(previous))
+ history <- rbind(previous, history[history$date > start, ])
+ }
+ history <- history[order(history$date, history$team_id), ]
+ history$format <- format_name
+ history$team <- teams$team[match(history$team_id, teams$team_id)]
+ panel_labels <- paste(teams$team, format(teams$rating, big.mark = ",", trim = TRUE), sep = " · ")
+ history$panel <- factor(history$team_id, levels = teams$team_id, labels = panel_labels)
+ history
+}
+
+ratings_theme <- function() {
+ ggplot2::theme_minimal(base_size = 13, base_family = "sans") +
+ ggplot2::theme(
+ text = ggplot2::element_text(colour = "#222222"),
+ panel.grid.minor = ggplot2::element_blank(),
+ panel.grid.major.x = ggplot2::element_blank(),
+ panel.grid.major.y = ggplot2::element_line(colour = "#E5E5E5", linewidth = 0.25),
+ plot.title = ggplot2::element_text(face = "bold", size = 18),
+ plot.subtitle = ggplot2::element_text(size = 12, margin = ggplot2::margin(b = 12)),
+ plot.caption = ggplot2::element_text(hjust = 0, size = 10, margin = ggplot2::margin(t = 12)),
+ plot.title.position = "plot", plot.caption.position = "plot",
+ strip.text = ggplot2::element_text(face = "bold", hjust = 0, size = 12),
+ legend.position = "none", plot.margin = ggplot2::margin(12, 18, 12, 12)
+ )
+}
+
+ratings_charts <- function(data, format_name, styles = chart_styles(data$latest)) {
+ .data <- rlang::.data
+ teams <- chart_teams(data$latest, format_name)
+ cutoff <- as.Date(data$manifest$as_of)
+ start <- as.Date(paste0(as.integer(format(cutoff, "%Y")) - 9L, "-01-01"))
+ history <- chart_data(data$latest, data$updates, format_name)
+ recent <- chart_data(data$latest, data$updates, format_name, start)
+ teams$label <- paste(teams$team, format(teams$rating, big.mark = ",", trim = TRUE), sep = " ")
+ note <- paste(
+ "Current top ten active teams. Steps show end-of-day Elo; flat sections carry ratings forward.",
+ "No smoothing or uncertainty intervals. Independent of ICC rankings.",
+ sep = "\n"
+ )
+ comparison <- ggplot2::ggplot(recent, ggplot2::aes(
+ x = .data$date, y = .data$rating, group = .data$team_id,
+ colour = factor(.data$team_id), linetype = factor(.data$team_id)
+ )) +
+ ggplot2::geom_step(linewidth = 0.7, direction = "hv") +
+ ggplot2::geom_point(data = teams, size = 2, show.legend = FALSE) +
+ ggrepel::geom_text_repel(
+ data = teams, ggplot2::aes(label = .data$label),
+ colour = "#222222", size = 4.2, direction = "y", hjust = 0,
+ nudge_x = 180, box.padding = 0.35, point.padding = 0.2,
+ min.segment.length = 0, segment.colour = "#777777", segment.size = 0.3,
+ seed = 42, max.overlaps = Inf, max.iter = 10000, max.time = Inf
+ ) +
+ ggplot2::scale_colour_manual(values = styles$colours) +
+ ggplot2::scale_linetype_manual(values = styles$lines) +
+ ggplot2::scale_x_date(
+ breaks = seq(start, cutoff, by = "2 years"), date_labels = "%Y", limits = c(start, cutoff + 950),
+ expand = ggplot2::expansion(mult = c(0.01, 0))
+ ) +
+ ggplot2::scale_y_continuous(expand = ggplot2::expansion(mult = 0.08)) +
+ ggplot2::labs(
+ title = paste(format_name, "Elo ratings"),
+ subtitle = paste("Recent history ·", format(start, "%Y"), "to", cutoff, "· labels show current ratings"),
+ x = NULL, y = "Elo rating", caption = note
+ ) +
+ ratings_theme()
+ panels <- ggplot2::ggplot(history, ggplot2::aes(x = .data$date, y = .data$rating, group = .data$team_id)) +
+ ggplot2::geom_step(colour = "#245673", linewidth = 0.5, direction = "hv") +
+ ggplot2::facet_wrap(ggplot2::vars(.data$panel), ncol = 2, scales = "fixed") +
+ ggplot2::scale_x_date(date_labels = "%Y", expand = ggplot2::expansion(mult = c(0.01, 0.02))) +
+ ggplot2::labs(
+ title = paste(format_name, "Elo ratings · full history"),
+ subtitle = paste("Current top ten active teams, ordered by current rating · through", cutoff),
+ x = NULL, y = "Elo rating",
+ caption = paste("All panels use the same axes. Headings give current ratings.", note, sep = "\n")
+ ) +
+ ratings_theme()
+ list(recent = comparison, history = panels)
+}
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 6076ef2..b52f49c 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -117,8 +117,12 @@ predictive performance.
display rules, not ICC eligibility rules.
The update ledger records both teams' ratings before and after every rated match.
-Charts show month-end histories of the current top ten active teams, without
-smoothing. Histories are reconstructed from the saved source version; they are
+Charts show end-of-day match updates for the current top ten active teams, without
+smoothing. Recent-history comparisons cover the current and preceding nine calendar
+years, with team names and current ratings at the line ends. Full histories appear
+in separate team panels with common axes. PNG and SVG versions are published.
+The same team uses the same color and line type across formats within a publication.
+Histories are reconstructed from the saved source version; they are
not evidence of what could have been published using records available at the time.
Git history preserves successive actual publications.
@@ -127,6 +131,9 @@ errors. Glickman uncertainty and Stan posterior summaries belong to their own
models and should not be presented as interchangeable Elo standard errors.
Before comparing methods, use common chronological forecast cutoffs and document
each model's treatment of draws, ties, inactivity, and missing covariates.
+The [modeling proposal](docs/rating_models.md) sets out institutional versus lineup
+strength, TrueSkill-style and GAM extensions, venue context, and the distinction
+between live ratings and retrospective smoothing.
## Publication and checks
diff --git a/data/build/manifest.json b/data/build/manifest.json
index 63b1e62..ac3ecc5 100644
--- a/data/build/manifest.json
+++ b/data/build/manifest.json
@@ -2076,8 +2076,9 @@
"R/acquisition.R": "70a51080e845100a95fe9b96cdc70a5803a1f1ecc4b19872eafedd37a8abdf0e",
"R/elo.R": "3bca27c1c77aa1f83d4b61ab5ac6b9e4b82ece4b31547806a4fdb2abaacf325e",
"R/paths.R": "c267c8c657ffa7b4641f2d36e792d57fe50e95186ebb8ca1571e35855198cad1",
- "R/pipeline.R": "72f5f88f8ca237ab7d4ba46b571a3cf618a50d9076ea0ccb82c930766bc127c0",
- "renv.lock": "85f4824ac9844eeb077248a141de2d681998cd4d6a8bf5630ebf6633beeb3e2b",
- "scripts/pipeline.R": "667412826aaf152f23a26f3d7bd2d45d94c97d13315dc171da7c90679c8d8b03"
+ "R/pipeline.R": "22f169c5e7c29e900bd2d5f6ac9aa2fa29d2ad63bba567322613c184d9deb60e",
+ "R/visualization.R": "971a73ad37b497a8b2f413d20eccc1963512f2224f66185bb31a4aaed092bee4",
+ "renv.lock": "056556a40bc44098ac3a6724478a13e293068f11127809bd4e5427bace13147f",
+ "scripts/pipeline.R": "8875853301c18073af95add7841762f5491c0c6e80640f4b65527c51d02ba824"
}
}
diff --git a/figs/elo/manifest.json b/figs/elo/manifest.json
index adf7b38..e5beae9 100644
--- a/figs/elo/manifest.json
+++ b/figs/elo/manifest.json
@@ -1,16 +1,26 @@
{
- "analysis_sha256": "6bf6d35a5e77cd9401fa0b9f7b86057f6b9220c44c811fe018b8f80cced232c2",
+ "analysis_sha256": "fccbb305b8ccd0917d367708e471e4be16d9f74603d52dedaf629c519b62174b",
"code_sha256": {
"R/acquisition.R": "70a51080e845100a95fe9b96cdc70a5803a1f1ecc4b19872eafedd37a8abdf0e",
"R/elo.R": "3bca27c1c77aa1f83d4b61ab5ac6b9e4b82ece4b31547806a4fdb2abaacf325e",
"R/paths.R": "c267c8c657ffa7b4641f2d36e792d57fe50e95186ebb8ca1571e35855198cad1",
- "R/pipeline.R": "72f5f88f8ca237ab7d4ba46b571a3cf618a50d9076ea0ccb82c930766bc127c0",
- "renv.lock": "85f4824ac9844eeb077248a141de2d681998cd4d6a8bf5630ebf6633beeb3e2b",
- "scripts/pipeline.R": "667412826aaf152f23a26f3d7bd2d45d94c97d13315dc171da7c90679c8d8b03"
+ "R/pipeline.R": "22f169c5e7c29e900bd2d5f6ac9aa2fa29d2ad63bba567322613c184d9deb60e",
+ "R/visualization.R": "971a73ad37b497a8b2f413d20eccc1963512f2224f66185bb31a4aaed092bee4",
+ "renv.lock": "056556a40bc44098ac3a6724478a13e293068f11127809bd4e5427bace13147f",
+ "scripts/pipeline.R": "8875853301c18073af95add7841762f5491c0c6e80640f4b65527c51d02ba824"
},
"files": {
- "odi.png": "fc17cbebad079ce089ba0aa9ad59bea67e9532e1d2a7154bf370b0b08ab60a37",
- "t20i.png": "91f9c1bf289b7053c217e64ca4fb7ab20269d9d8f6996a2cac60c1607fb37b3f",
- "test.png": "b22c14a5c6b125e8902c0e5612c69a7c329b3d685f1f8e9683327ba7f5f5a980"
+ "odi_history.png": "798a0eaa8a9e2a38efccfda958b6c51dd3d74f43dad5f536a84071e402f205f1",
+ "odi_history.svg": "92e23db6f1fd3617df43ab2782134aa56158c6dc881629c7e5a29451bba21b1c",
+ "odi.png": "699d04054efec0cca520b8be6ee727231448ff06e67a39b0c53c56a50c7ccd79",
+ "odi.svg": "41fbb664a1f4cc528cea0bc9f359922c2ad278a97183c262525831a6fa11dc0a",
+ "t20i_history.png": "2e2f14546f11f80184d669753768ff50e3133c914c7a6d0a1975fb769763ee6d",
+ "t20i_history.svg": "546b59d2d884e005263609a2a3b5a0a48793512cec4a24b804a7fe8049e8751a",
+ "t20i.png": "8752cf1914ed8939d263e4718e469f5eaa6407e09a2fae735e42af17b18255ed",
+ "t20i.svg": "0fc469f6b02a8911c28dd886a9b35e22407ebf35e0bffe363527afbbacf9af94",
+ "test_history.png": "b9b7a26ef8456b59a97183f5fe6d08b372b7cce3bd34b9526d781c3b0ec47e6a",
+ "test_history.svg": "fb1cff6f70badacf1cb02f9152ffef1c28edbf77a2d803a2ec5964dbbea8950c",
+ "test.png": "404e61eb3325ada6c8b114c9d5ba4ca3a344c3fc3301d19af1c27f8c9f8fecc9",
+ "test.svg": "702d2f68a3e9c76a497de4a3fbd020749e3a81cae7c852d7eca6c961700f232d"
}
}
diff --git a/figs/elo/odi.png b/figs/elo/odi.png
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