diff --git a/changelog.d/ak-pfd-energy-relief-history.fixed.md b/changelog.d/ak-pfd-energy-relief-history.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000000..3c86635f40e --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/ak-pfd-energy-relief-history.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Give Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend and energy relief the amounts Alaska paid in each year from 2015, the first year PolicyEngine models, to 2021 (#5148). PolicyEngine had carried 2022's $2,622 dividend and $662 energy relief back to those years. The PFD Division reports dividends of $2,072 in 2015, $1,022 in 2016, $1,100 in 2017, $1,600 in 2018, $1,606 in 2019, $992 in 2020 and $1,114 in 2021, with no energy relief. From 2027, PolicyEngine carries the 2026 dividend of $1,000 forward and sets energy relief to zero until Alaska sets new amounts. diff --git a/docs/validation/alaska-pfd.md b/docs/validation/alaska-pfd.md index 6182b4f133e..d2b8982deee 100644 --- a/docs/validation/alaska-pfd.md +++ b/docs/validation/alaska-pfd.md @@ -44,6 +44,33 @@ With only the two payment inputs removed, this person's calculated 2022 regular PFD is \$2,622, energy relief is \$662, and federal AGI is \$52,622. With both inputs set to zero as above, federal AGI is \$50,000. +## Amounts by year + +PolicyEngine sets `gov.states.ak.dor.permanent_fund_dividend` and +`gov.states.ak.dor.energy_relief` to what Alaska paid each eligible person in +each year from 2015, the first year it models: + +| Year | Dividend | Energy relief | Source | +|---|---|---|---| +| 2015 | \$2,072 | \$0 | [PFD Division summary table](https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments); [2019 annual report](https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2019-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=24) | +| 2016 | \$1,022 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 annual report | +| 2017 | \$1,100 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 and [2021](https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2021-pfd-annual-report---final.pdf#page=24) annual reports | +| 2018 | \$1,600 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 and 2021 annual reports | +| 2019 | \$1,606 | \$0 | Summary table; 2019 and 2021 annual reports | +| 2020 | \$992 | \$0 | Summary table; 2021 annual report | +| 2021 | \$1,114 | \$0 | Summary table; 2021 annual report | +| 2022 | \$2,622 | \$662 | [Alaska DOR release 23-002](https://dor.alaska.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/2023_02_17-dor-response-to-irs-guidance-on-2022-pfd.pdf#page=1) (Alaska paid \$2,621.81 and \$662.19) | +| 2023 | \$1,312 | \$0 | [2023 annual report](https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2023-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=3) | +| 2024 | \$1,403.83 | \$298.17 | [Alaska DOR release 24-005](https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2024/09/19/department-of-revenue-announces-2024-permanent-fund-dividend-amount-and-energy-relief) | +| 2025 | \$1,000 | \$0 | [Sec. 25(d), ch. 10, SLA 2025](https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0053Z.PDF#page=89); [Alaska DOR release 25-004](https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2025/09/22/department-of-revenue-announces-2025-permanent-fund-dividend-amount) | +| 2026 | \$1,000 | \$200 | [Sec. 18(d)](https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0263Z.PDF#page=87) and [sec. 13](https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0263Z.PDF#page=84), ch. 34, SLA 2026; [Alaska DOR release 26-004](https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2026/09/28/department-of-revenue-announces-2026-permanent-fund-dividend-amount) | + +Alaska sets each year's dividend in its budget and adds energy relief only in +years when it appropriates a one-time payment. It has set no dividend and +appropriated no energy relief for 2027 or later. From 2027, PolicyEngine carries +the 2026 dividend of \$1,000 forward and sets energy relief to zero. To model +amounts that Alaska sets later, supply either variable as an input. + ## The 2022 regular dividend and energy relief split Alaska paid \$3,284 in total: \$2,621.81 of regular PFD and \$662.19 of supplemental diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/energy_relief.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/energy_relief.yaml index f8462a1a31e..9284d472e13 100644 --- a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/energy_relief.yaml +++ b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/energy_relief.yaml @@ -1,21 +1,49 @@ -description: Alaska provides this one-time energy relief payment. +description: Alaska provides this one-time energy relief payment with the Permanent Fund Dividend in years when it appropriates one. values: + 2015-01-01: 0 2022-01-01: 662 2023-01-01: 0 2024-01-01: 298.17 2025-01-01: 0 2026-01-01: 200 + # Alaska appropriates each one-time payment in its budget, and it has + # appropriated none for 2027 or later. + 2027-01-01: 0 metadata: label: Alaska energy relief period: year unit: currency-USD reference: - # 2022 and 2023. - - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Tax Information - href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information + # 2015 to 2021: Alaska paid the dividend alone. + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, Summary of Dividend Applications & Payments + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2019 Annual Report + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2019-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=24 + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2021 Annual Report + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2021-pfd-annual-report---final.pdf#page=24 + # 2022: $662.19 of the $3,284 payment, which PolicyEngine rounds to $662. + - title: Alaska Department of Revenue, DOR Response to IRS Guidance on 2022 PFD (release 23-002) + href: https://dor.alaska.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/2023_02_17-dor-response-to-irs-guidance-on-2022-pfd.pdf#page=1 + # 2023: Alaska paid the $1,312 dividend alone. + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2023 Annual Report + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2023-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=3 + # 2024. - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend Amount and Energy Relief href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2024/09/19/department-of-revenue-announces-2024-permanent-fund-dividend-amount-and-energy-relief - - title: Budget heads to governor with $1,200 PFD attached - href: https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/05/21/budget-heads-governor-with-1200-pfd-attached/ + # 2025: Alaska paid the $1,000 dividend alone. + - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2025 Permanent Fund Dividend Amount + href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2025/09/22/department-of-revenue-announces-2025-permanent-fund-dividend-amount + # 2026: in sec. 13, amending sec. 49(a), ch. 10, SLA 2025, the Legislature + # appropriated "the amount necessary, estimated to be $127,340,800, to pay a + # one-time energy relief payment of $200 as part of the permanent fund + # dividend". It put the payment first in line for the fiscal 2026 + # unrestricted general fund revenue above $6.3 billion that remained after + # the year's other appropriations, up to $700 million. The Legislature + # counted the sec. 25(c) appropriation from the earnings reserve account in + # that revenue. DOR announced the payment in release 26-004. + - title: "Sec. 13, ch. 34, SLA 2026 (enrolled HB 263), amending sec. 49(a), ch. 10, SLA 2025 #page 84-85" + href: https://www.akleg.gov/PDF/34/Bills/HB0263Z.PDF#page=84 + - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2026 Permanent Fund Dividend + href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2026/09/28/department-of-revenue-announces-2026-permanent-fund-dividend-amount diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/permanent_fund_dividend.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/permanent_fund_dividend.yaml index c954b0162d9..80b91bf032d 100644 --- a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/permanent_fund_dividend.yaml +++ b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ak/dor/permanent_fund_dividend.yaml @@ -1,9 +1,18 @@ description: Alaska provides this Permanent Fund Dividend amount. values: + 2015-01-01: 2_072 + 2016-01-01: 1_022 + 2017-01-01: 1_100 + 2018-01-01: 1_600 + 2019-01-01: 1_606 + 2020-01-01: 992 + 2021-01-01: 1_114 2022-01-01: 2_622 2023-01-01: 1_312 2024-01-01: 1_403.83 2025-01-01: 1_000 + # Alaska sets each year's dividend in its budget, and it has set none for + # 2027 or later, so PolicyEngine keeps the 2026 dividend for later years. 2026-01-01: 1_000 metadata: @@ -11,9 +20,21 @@ metadata: period: year unit: currency-USD reference: - # 2022 and 2023. - - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Tax Information - href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information + # 2015 to 2021. + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, Summary of Dividend Applications & Payments + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments + # 2015 to 2019, in the five-year dividend calculation. + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2019 Annual Report + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2019-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=24 + # 2017 to 2021, in the five-year dividend calculation. + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2021 Annual Report + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2021-pfd-annual-report---final.pdf#page=24 + # 2022: $2,621.81 of the $3,284 payment, which PolicyEngine rounds to $2,622. + - title: Alaska Department of Revenue, DOR Response to IRS Guidance on 2022 PFD (release 23-002) + href: https://dor.alaska.gov/docs/default-source/press-releases/2023_02_17-dor-response-to-irs-guidance-on-2022-pfd.pdf#page=1 + # 2023. + - title: Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Division, 2023 Annual Report + href: https://pfd.alaska.gov/docs/permanentfunddividendlibraries/annual-reports/2023-pfd-annual-report.pdf#page=3 # 2024. - title: Department of Revenue Announces 2024 Permanent Fund Dividend Amount and Energy Relief href: https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2024/09/19/department-of-revenue-announces-2024-permanent-fund-dividend-amount-and-energy-relief diff --git a/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_energy_relief.yaml b/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_energy_relief.yaml index c84cc9679fa..15b1baed973 100644 --- a/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_energy_relief.yaml +++ b/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_energy_relief.yaml @@ -26,3 +26,59 @@ state_code: WA output: ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 5, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2015. + period: 2015 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 6, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2016. + period: 2016 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 7, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2017. + period: 2017 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 8, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2018. + period: 2018 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 9, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2019. + period: 2019 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 10, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2020. + period: 2020 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 11, Alaska paid no energy relief in 2021. + period: 2021 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 + +- name: Case 12, Alaska has appropriated no energy relief for 2027. + period: 2027 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_energy_relief: 0 diff --git a/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_permanent_fund_dividend.yaml b/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_permanent_fund_dividend.yaml index f1c78e43dee..c27d49c6925 100644 --- a/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_permanent_fund_dividend.yaml +++ b/policyengine_us/tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/ak/dor/ak_permanent_fund_dividend.yaml @@ -26,3 +26,99 @@ state_code: WA output: ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 0 + +- name: Case 5, Alaska paid a $2,072 dividend in 2015. + period: 2015 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 2_072 + +- name: Case 6, Alaska paid a $1,022 dividend in 2016. + period: 2016 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_022 + +- name: Case 7, Alaska paid a $1,100 dividend in 2017. + period: 2017 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_100 + +- name: Case 8, Alaska paid a $1,600 dividend in 2018. + period: 2018 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_600 + +- name: Case 9, Alaska paid a $1,606 dividend in 2019. + period: 2019 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_606 + +- name: Case 10, Alaska paid a $992 dividend in 2020. + period: 2020 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 992 + +- name: Case 11, Alaska paid a $1,114 dividend in 2021. + period: 2021 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_114 + +- name: Case 12, Alaska has set no dividend for 2027, so PolicyEngine keeps the 2026 dividend. + period: 2027 + input: + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_000 + +- name: Case 13, a 2019 filer with $50,000 of wages gets the $1,606 dividend and no energy relief, so federal gross income and AGI come to $51,606. + period: 2019 + input: + people: + person: + age: 40 + employment_income: 50_000 + tax_units: + tax_unit: + members: [person] + households: + household: + members: [person] + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_606 + ak_energy_relief: 0 + irs_gross_income: 51_606 + adjusted_gross_income: 51_606 + +- name: Case 14, a 2027 filer with $50,000 of wages gets the $1,000 dividend and no energy relief, so federal gross income and AGI come to $51,000. + period: 2027 + input: + people: + person: + age: 40 + employment_income: 50_000 + tax_units: + tax_unit: + members: [person] + households: + household: + members: [person] + state_code: AK + output: + ak_permanent_fund_dividend: 1_000 + ak_energy_relief: 0 + irs_gross_income: 51_000 + adjusted_gross_income: 51_000 diff --git a/policyengine_us/tests/test_ak_permanent_fund_dividend_amounts.py b/policyengine_us/tests/test_ak_permanent_fund_dividend_amounts.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000000..0c7f7644c42 --- /dev/null +++ b/policyengine_us/tests/test_ak_permanent_fund_dividend_amounts.py @@ -0,0 +1,76 @@ +"""Invariants for the amounts Alaska paid with each Permanent Fund Dividend. + +1. For each dividend year from 2015 to 2026, the dividend plus energy relief + equals the whole payment per eligible individual that Alaska published. The + PFD Division publishes 2015 to 2025 in its summary table, and the Department + of Revenue published 2026 in release 26-004. PolicyEngine rounds 2022's + $2,621.81 and $662.19 to $2,622 and $662, which keeps the $3,284 total. +2. From 2015 to 2100, the dividend stays positive and energy relief never + falls below zero. +3. Alaska has set neither amount for 2027 or later, so from 2027 the dividend + stays at the 2026 amount and energy relief at zero. + +The YAML tests pin each year's dividend and energy relief one at a time. These +tests compare the two parameters' sum with the published whole payment, and +draw years beyond the published ones. +""" + +import pytest +from hypothesis import given +from hypothesis import strategies as st + +from policyengine_us.system import system +from policyengine_us.tools.parameters import FIRST_MODELED_YEAR + +# "Dividend Amount" in the PFD Division's Summary of Dividend Applications & +# Payments, https://pfd.alaska.gov/division-info/summary-of-dividend-applications-payments +# (2015 to 2025), and the $1,000 dividend with the $200 energy relief payment in +# Department of Revenue release 26-004 (2026). +WHOLE_PAYMENT = { + 2015: 2_072, + 2016: 1_022, + 2017: 1_100, + 2018: 1_600, + 2019: 1_606, + 2020: 992, + 2021: 1_114, + 2022: 3_284, + 2023: 1_312, + 2024: 1_702, + 2025: 1_000, + 2026: 1_200, +} +LAST_SET_YEAR = max(WHOLE_PAYMENT) + + +def amounts(year): + # Read the two parameters at the instant, not the whole tree, which would + # build every parameter for each year drawn. + dor = system.parameters.gov.states.ak.dor + instant = f"{year}-01-01" + return ( + float(dor.permanent_fund_dividend(instant)), + float(dor.energy_relief(instant)), + ) + + +def test_published_years_start_at_first_modeled_year(): + assert min(WHOLE_PAYMENT) == FIRST_MODELED_YEAR + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", sorted(WHOLE_PAYMENT)) +def test_dividend_and_energy_relief_add_up_to_the_published_payment(year): + dividend, energy_relief = amounts(year) + assert dividend + energy_relief == pytest.approx(WHOLE_PAYMENT[year], abs=0.005) + + +@given(st.integers(min_value=FIRST_MODELED_YEAR, max_value=2100)) +def test_amounts_stay_in_bounds(year): + dividend, energy_relief = amounts(year) + assert dividend > 0 + assert energy_relief >= 0 + + +@given(st.integers(min_value=LAST_SET_YEAR + 1, max_value=2100)) +def test_later_years_carry_the_last_dividend_and_no_energy_relief(year): + assert amounts(year) == (amounts(LAST_SET_YEAR)[0], 0)