diff --git a/changelog.d/2662.changed.md b/changelog.d/2662.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..597847196e --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/2662.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Documented that the OBR shows Northern Ireland domestic rates in two places, a council tax line that appears to be the district rates and an other taxes line that appears to be the regional rate, while `domestic_rates` charges both. diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml index 30c01ae850..c2d81496a6 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml @@ -88,6 +88,20 @@ sources: a forecast of Northern Irish domestic rates to Great Britain's, and are net of discounts and reduction schemes. Read 2026-10-11 from https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/council-tax/ + ni_domestic_rates: >- + OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026, detailed forecast tables: + expenditure Table 4.1 ("Council tax receipts"), which its footnote calls + a breakdown of Table A.5's council tax line, and receipts Table 3.2 + ("Other taxes"), which its footnote calls consistent with Table A.5's + other taxes line. ONS, Country and regional public sector finances, + financial year ending 2025, Northern Ireland revenue rows "Northern + Ireland Regional Domestic Rates" and "Northern Ireland District Domestic + Rates". Land & Property Services, "Rates paid by District Council and + Sector", domestic rates paid. Cells read 2026-10-25. Published at + https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/, + https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/datasets/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinancesrevenuetables + and + https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/30535a44-0a05-4bff-98cf-001301a6b4d6/rates-paid-by-district-council-and-sector student_loans: >- Student loan repayments are not a row of Table A.5. In the March 2026 EFO only the interest accrued on the loans enters receipts, in "Interest @@ -447,8 +461,39 @@ tax_heads: obr_line: Council tax obr_table_3_1: null obr_line_note: >- - The OBR adds Northern Irish domestic rates to its council tax receipts - (see sources). + The head is the whole Northern Ireland domestic bill, the regional rate + and the council's district rate together. Land & Property Services + (LPS) reports £889.5m of domestic rates paid across NI in 2024-25. The + OBR shows NI domestic rates in two places and labels neither as + regional or district (see sources): "NI domestic rates" in its council + tax receipts, a flat £0.494bn in every year from the 2024-25 outturn to + 2030-31 (expenditure Table 4.1), which appears to be the district + rates; and "Northern Ireland domestic rates" under other taxes, £485.3m + in 2024-25 (receipts Table 3.2), which appears to cover the regional + rate only. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) records NI + regional domestic rates (central government, £498m in 2024-25) and + district domestic rates (local government, with council tax, £441m) + separately. The reading rests on where each line + sits, not on its size: £0.494bn is nearer ONS's regional row than its + district row, and the two lines together (£0.979bn in 2024-25) exceed + both LPS's figure and ONS's two rows (£0.939bn). The head keeps the + Council tax row, where the OBR says its forecast adds NI domestic + rates. In the 2024-25 outturn that row (March 2026 Table A.5, + £47.417bn) is £0.273bn below Table 4.1's total (£47.690bn), so whether + it then includes NI domestic rates is not established; the two agree + in the forecast years. If the regional and district reading holds, the + head's scope is the two lines together, not either alone. obr_table_3_1 is null because Table + 3.1's footnotes do not place NI domestic rates and the head appears to + span two Table A.5 rows. The + comment on gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.finance_ni.domestic_rates + gives the evidence for the reading. + data_note: >- + On the certified dataset (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1) the head totals + £0.52bn in 2024, the Family Resources Survey 2024-25 year, against + £0.89bn of LPS domestic + rates paid in 2024-25. policyengine-uk-data issue 520 tracks the level + and the data build's obr/domestic_rates target, which it reads from the + Table 4.1 line alone. Measured 2026-10-25. report_group: local_taxes payer: household totals: [gov_tax, household_tax, pre_budget_change_household_tax] diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index e69980e45a..4d068d8022 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -1520,7 +1520,8 @@ finance_ni: # 2019-20, the first year not published). It is a national average: it # does not reproduce any one council's bill or changes in reliefs. # - # Neither OBR March 2026 line covers the whole bill, and OBR labels + # Neither OBR March 2026 line is large enough to cover the whole bill + # (each is about half of LPS's £889.5m paid in 2024-25), and OBR labels # neither as regional or district; the attribution here is inferred. # Expenditure Table 4.1 holds "NI domestic rates" at £0.494bn in every # year to 2030-31 inside its council tax total, and ONS classes district @@ -1529,9 +1530,11 @@ finance_ni: # taxes") appears to be the regional rate: ONS classes the regional # domestic rate as a central government tax, and with Table 3.2's NI # business rates line it sums to £0.914bn in 2026-27, against DoF's - # "just over £900million" from the regional rate that year. Receipts - # growth is not bill growth either: Table 3.2 grows 2.0% in 2026-27, a - # year whose domestic regional rate rose 5.0%. + # "just over £900million" from the regional rate that year. The reading + # rests on where the lines sit, not on their size: the £0.494bn line is + # nearer ONS's 2024-25 regional domestic row (£498m) than its district + # row (£441m). Receipts growth is not bill growth either: Table 3.2 + # grows 2.0% in 2026-27, a year whose domestic regional rate rose 5.0%. values: # Outturn: published poundages. Regional rate 0.4574p in 2019-20 to # 2022-23, then 0.4848p, 0.5042p, 0.5294p and 0.5559p (2026-27). The