From fa3b499b7f9477c27f082db34ba770e714593c13 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Wed, 27 May 2026 12:33:14 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/4] Add Cold Weather Payment planning doc (#435) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit #435 asks for Cold Weather Payment to be modelled. Persist the modelling plan in-repo because the geographic weather-event eligibility is the unusual bit and shouldn't be left to ad-hoc implementation decisions. The page covers: - the policy structure (SI 1988/1724): £25 per 7-day cold period at the household's weather station, conditional on a qualifying-benefit receipt with the relevant addition / age trigger, - three modelling approaches for the weather side: expected-value parameterisation (smooth aggregate, wrong per-winter), regional mixing from Met Office historic data (recommended), and year-specific lookups for back-casts, - three-phase implementation: Phase 1 expected-value gate + payment; Phase 2 regional weather mixing; Phase 3 Scottish Winter Heating Payment under SSI 2023/8 as a separate variable, - data sources (DWP CWP statistics for calibration; Met Office historic stations for regional expected periods), - open questions on composite vs disaggregated eligibility flags and whether to model Welsh top-ups. --- changelog.d/435.md | 1 + .../gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md | 128 ++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 129 insertions(+) create mode 100644 changelog.d/435.md create mode 100644 docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md diff --git a/changelog.d/435.md b/changelog.d/435.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..6de23f34a4 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/435.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Add a Cold Weather Payment planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md` covering the SI 1988/1724 qualifying-benefit-and-weather-event eligibility, a three-phase implementation route (expected-value -> regional weather mixing -> back-cast lookups), and the Scotland Winter Heating Payment equivalent under SSI 2023/8. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..dc1af79158 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +# Cold Weather Payment (planned) + +```{warning} +**Not yet modelled.** The Cold Weather Payment (CWP) is a DWP payment +of **£25 per 7-day period of recorded cold weather** to qualifying +households in England, Wales and (historically) Northern Ireland. +PolicyEngine UK doesn't currently model it. This page captures the +proposed scope, tracked under +[#435](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/435). + +In Scotland the equivalent benefit is the **Winter Heating Payment** +(£59.75 per qualifying household per winter, replacing CWP from +February 2023) — also not modelled. +``` + +## What CWP is + +Defined in [The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments (General) +Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if +**all** of the following hold: + +- The address is in a postcode covered by a weather station that + recorded **7 consecutive days** at or below 0°C (forecast or + observed) in the qualifying period (1 November – 31 March). +- A member of the benunit receives one of the **qualifying benefits**: + Pension Credit; Income Support, JSA-IB, or ESA-IR (in either case + with a disability-related premium, a child under 5, or in a few + other circumstances); Universal Credit (with limited capability for + work, a disability addition, or a child under 5). + +The payment is £25 per 7-day cold period; multiple cold periods +trigger multiple payments. Outturn averages ~£100m to ~£200m/year +nationally depending on winter severity. + +## Why this is harder than other DWP benefits + +The eligibility test combines an administrative benefit check (clean +for PolicyEngine) with a **geographic weather event** (no FRS +analogue). Modelling the weather side has three plausible approaches: + +1. **Expected-value parameterisation**: a single national + `cold_weather_payments_expected_periods` parameter capturing the + long-run-average number of 7-day cold periods triggered per winter. + Multiply by `£25 × qualifying_household` to produce the expected + annual payment. Easy to implement, accurate in aggregate, wrong in + any specific winter. +2. **Regional weather mixing**: a per-region weather-event + distribution (e.g. North East has more cold periods than London on + average), parameterised from Met Office historic data. Captures the + distributional skew without forecasting any particular winter. +3. **Year-specific lookups**: tabulate the DWP-published *Cold Weather + Payment statistics* by region by year and use those as historical + inputs. Most accurate for back-cast simulations; needs ongoing + updating. + +Recommendation: **option 2 (regional mixing)** for prospective analysis +and option 3 for back-casts where the data is available. + +## Proposed scope + +### Phase 1 — qualifying-benefit gate + expected-value payment + +- New parameter `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.amount` = £25 (since + the scheme's inception). +- New parameter + `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_per_year` = + long-run national average from DWP CWP statistics. +- New variable `cold_weather_payment_eligible` (BenUnit, YEAR) that + fires if any benunit member receives one of the qualifying benefits + with the relevant addition / age trigger. +- New variable `cold_weather_payment` (BenUnit, YEAR) = `amount` × + `expected_periods_per_year` × `eligible`. + +This delivers a model that gets the policy-relevant slice right +(*who* qualifies for CWP and how it interacts with their other +benefits) at the cost of smoothing year-to-year weather variance. + +### Phase 2 — regional weather mixing + +Add a `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_by_region` table +parameterised from Met Office observation data, and a household-side +lookup by `region`. + +### Phase 3 — Scotland Winter Heating Payment + +Different rules and a different administration — modelled as a +separate variable: + +- `winter_heating_payment_scotland_eligible`: any benunit member on + Pension Credit + Scotland residence (the WHP qualifying-benefit + list is broader than CWP). +- `winter_heating_payment_scotland` = `amount` × `eligible` where + `amount` is the flat per-household winter payment (£59.75 in + 2023-24, uprated subsequently). + +## Data needs + +- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-payments-statistics) — caseload and expenditure by region by winter, primary calibration source. +- DWP-published WHP statistics (Scotland) — Phase 3 calibration. +- Met Office, [UK climate historic stations](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data) — Phase 2 regional expected-period parameterisation. + +The FRS gives `region` cleanly, so the geographic gate is no extra +data work for Phase 1/2. + +## Open questions + +- The qualifying-benefit list for CWP is narrower than for WHD — + specifically the disability/child-under-5 triggers within UC and the + legacy benefits. Should the eligibility be modelled as a single + composite condition variable, or as separate `_via_uc` / + `_via_legacy` / `_via_pc` flags? +- CWP averages ~£100m/year — well below most modelled benefits, but + the marginal household-level impact is meaningful for the low-income + pensioners and disabled households it targets. Worth modelling + Phase 1 even if Phase 2 doesn't follow. +- Welsh Government has occasionally topped up CWP from devolved funds. + Should the model expose a `wales_top_up` parameter for reform + analyses? + +## References + +- [The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments (General) Regulations 1988 (SI 1988/1724)][cwp-1988]. +- gov.uk, [Cold Weather Payment](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment). +- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-payments-statistics). +- Scottish equivalent: [Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) Regulations 2023 (SSI 2023/8)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/8/contents). +- Issue: [#435](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/435). + +[cwp-1988]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1988/1724 From 3bc0d27be04ae935743299f62bba908490c6f5ee Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2026 15:52:22 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 2/4] Correct the Cold Weather Payment plan Northern Ireland still runs the scheme; the Scottish Winter Heating Payment is under SSI 2023/16, now 62.00 a year, with the same qualifying benefits as CWP; note that Pension Age Winter Heating Payment is already modelled; fix the qualifying conditions, the statistics link and the spending figures; drop an unsourced claim. Type the changelog fragment. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/435.added.md | 1 + changelog.d/435.md | 1 - .../gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md | 112 +++++++++++------- 3 files changed, 67 insertions(+), 47 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/435.added.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/435.md diff --git a/changelog.d/435.added.md b/changelog.d/435.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..4ac12a8377 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/435.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Added a plan for modelling Cold Weather Payment and the Scottish Winter Heating Payment (#435) at `docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md`. diff --git a/changelog.d/435.md b/changelog.d/435.md deleted file mode 100644 index 6de23f34a4..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/435.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -- Add a Cold Weather Payment planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md` covering the SI 1988/1724 qualifying-benefit-and-weather-event eligibility, a three-phase implementation route (expected-value -> regional weather mixing -> back-cast lookups), and the Scotland Winter Heating Payment equivalent under SSI 2023/8. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md index dc1af79158..d85e524180 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md @@ -2,15 +2,22 @@ ```{warning} **Not yet modelled.** The Cold Weather Payment (CWP) is a DWP payment -of **£25 per 7-day period of recorded cold weather** to qualifying -households in England, Wales and (historically) Northern Ireland. -PolicyEngine UK doesn't currently model it. This page captures the -proposed scope, tracked under +of **£25 per 7-day period of very cold weather** to qualifying +households in England and Wales. Northern Ireland runs its own scheme +on the same terms (1 November 2026 to 31 March 2027, +[nidirect](https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/cold-weather-payment)). +PolicyEngine UK doesn't model it. This page sets out the proposed +scope, tracked in [#435](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/435). -In Scotland the equivalent benefit is the **Winter Heating Payment** -(£59.75 per qualifying household per winter, replacing CWP from -February 2023) — also not modelled. +In Scotland the equivalent is the **Winter Heating Payment**, a flat +annual payment (£62.00 at the latest uprating, +[mygov.scot](https://www.mygov.scot/winter-heating-payment)), which +replaced Cold Weather Payment there in 2023. It isn't modelled either. +The separate Pension Age Winter Heating Payment, which replaced Winter +Fuel Payment in Scotland, is modelled under +`gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp`. Updated October 2026: amounts, +legislation and the Scotland and Northern Ireland position checked. ``` ## What CWP is @@ -19,18 +26,27 @@ Defined in [The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments (General) Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if **all** of the following hold: -- The address is in a postcode covered by a weather station that - recorded **7 consecutive days** at or below 0°C (forecast or - observed) in the qualifying period (1 November – 31 March). -- A member of the benunit receives one of the **qualifying benefits**: - Pension Credit; Income Support, JSA-IB, or ESA-IR (in either case - with a disability-related premium, a child under 5, or in a few - other circumstances); Universal Credit (with limited capability for - work, a disability addition, or a child under 5). - -The payment is £25 per 7-day cold period; multiple cold periods -trigger multiple payments. Outturn averages ~£100m to ~£200m/year -nationally depending on winter severity. +- The address is in a postcode linked to a weather station where the + average temperature is recorded as, or forecast to be, **0°C or below + over 7 consecutive days** between 1 November and 31 March. +- A member of the benefit unit receives a **qualifying benefit**: + Pension Credit; Income Support, income-based JSA or income-related + ESA with a disability or pensioner premium or a child under 5 (or, + for ESA, in the support or work-related activity group); Universal + Credit when not employed with a limited capability for work element, + a disabled child element or a child under 5, or when employed with a + disabled child element; or Support for Mortgage Interest with one of + those premiums or a child under 5. The GOV.UK eligibility page has + the exact conditions. + +The payment is £25 per 7-day cold period, and each further cold +period triggers another payment. Spending varies a lot with the winter: in +2024-25, for example, about 1.4 million payments worth around £35 +million were made in England and Wales +([DWP, April 2025](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-35-million-in-cold-weather-payments-support-paid-this-winter)). +DWP doesn't count actual payments through the winter; it publishes the +estimated number of eligible people at the start of each season and the +weekly triggers, from which payments can be estimated. ## Why this is harder than other DWP benefits @@ -60,13 +76,14 @@ and option 3 for back-casts where the data is available. ### Phase 1 — qualifying-benefit gate + expected-value payment -- New parameter `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.amount` = £25 (since - the scheme's inception). +- New parameter `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.amount` = £25. The amount + was lower in earlier years, so take any backdated values from the + amendment history of SI 1988/1724. - New parameter `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_per_year` = long-run national average from DWP CWP statistics. - New variable `cold_weather_payment_eligible` (BenUnit, YEAR) that - fires if any benunit member receives one of the qualifying benefits + fires if any benefit unit member receives one of the qualifying benefits with the relevant addition / age trigger. - New variable `cold_weather_payment` (BenUnit, YEAR) = `amount` × `expected_periods_per_year` × `eligible`. @@ -83,19 +100,24 @@ lookup by `region`. ### Phase 3 — Scotland Winter Heating Payment -Different rules and a different administration — modelled as a -separate variable: - -- `winter_heating_payment_scotland_eligible`: any benunit member on - Pension Credit + Scotland residence (the WHP qualifying-benefit - list is broader than CWP). -- `winter_heating_payment_scotland` = `amount` × `eligible` where - `amount` is the flat per-household winter payment (£59.75 in - 2023-24, uprated subsequently). +Paid by Social Security Scotland under +[The Winter Heating Assistance (Low Income) (Scotland) Regulations 2023](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/16/contents) +(SSI 2023/16). The qualifying benefits are essentially the same as for +Cold Weather Payment (Pension Credit with no further condition; the +other benefits with the same disability, pensioner-premium or +child-under-5 conditions), assessed in a qualifying week (2 to 8 +November in 2026), but the payment is a flat annual amount with no +weather trigger. So: + +- `winter_heating_payment_eligible`: the Phase 1 eligibility rule plus + residence in Scotland. Reuse the Phase 1 variable rather than a second + copy of the benefit conditions. +- `winter_heating_payment` = `amount` × eligible, with `amount` + uprated each year (£62.00 at the latest uprating). ## Data needs -- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-payments-statistics) — caseload and expenditure by region by winter, primary calibration source. +- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/social-fund-cold-weather-payments) — estimated eligible numbers at the start of each season and weekly triggers by weather station; the main calibration source. - DWP-published WHP statistics (Scotland) — Phase 3 calibration. - Met Office, [UK climate historic stations](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data) — Phase 2 regional expected-period parameterisation. @@ -104,25 +126,23 @@ data work for Phase 1/2. ## Open questions -- The qualifying-benefit list for CWP is narrower than for WHD — - specifically the disability/child-under-5 triggers within UC and the - legacy benefits. Should the eligibility be modelled as a single - composite condition variable, or as separate `_via_uc` / - `_via_legacy` / `_via_pc` flags? -- CWP averages ~£100m/year — well below most modelled benefits, but - the marginal household-level impact is meaningful for the low-income - pensioners and disabled households it targets. Worth modelling - Phase 1 even if Phase 2 doesn't follow. -- Welsh Government has occasionally topped up CWP from devolved funds. - Should the model expose a `wales_top_up` parameter for reform - analyses? +- The qualifying-benefit list is narrower than for the Warm Home + Discount in England and Wales, which now covers everyone on + Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, income-related ESA or Pension + Credit. Model the eligibility as one composite variable, shared with + the Scottish Winter Heating Payment, or as separate flags by route + (Universal Credit, legacy benefits, Pension Credit)? +- Spending is small next to most modelled benefits, but the payment + matters to the low-income pensioners and disabled households it + targets. Phase 1 is worth doing even if Phase 2 doesn't follow. ## References - [The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments (General) Regulations 1988 (SI 1988/1724)][cwp-1988]. - gov.uk, [Cold Weather Payment](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment). -- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/cold-weather-payments-statistics). -- Scottish equivalent: [Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) Regulations 2023 (SSI 2023/8)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/8/contents). +- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/social-fund-cold-weather-payments). +- Scottish equivalent: [The Winter Heating Assistance (Low Income) (Scotland) Regulations 2023 (SSI 2023/16)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/16/contents); [mygov.scot](https://www.mygov.scot/winter-heating-payment). +- Northern Ireland: [nidirect, Cold Weather Payment](https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/cold-weather-payment). - Issue: [#435](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/435). [cwp-1988]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1988/1724 From b79c1d2c0285d838a1105e9619cc9994d111997c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 11:06:17 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 3/4] Check the Cold Weather Payment plan against current guidance MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Restate the qualifying benefit conditions as GOV.UK gives them, cite the April 2026 uprating of the Winter Heating Payment to £62.00 in SSI 2023/16, credit its statistics to Social Security Scotland, and remove em dashes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md | 44 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 24 insertions(+), 20 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md index d85e524180..b24fd6315b 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md @@ -11,8 +11,9 @@ scope, tracked in [#435](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/435). In Scotland the equivalent is the **Winter Heating Payment**, a flat -annual payment (£62.00 at the latest uprating, -[mygov.scot](https://www.mygov.scot/winter-heating-payment)), which +annual payment (£62.00 from April 2026, regulation 9 of +[SSI 2023/16](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/16/contents) as +amended), which replaced Cold Weather Payment there in 2023. It isn't modelled either. The separate Pension Age Winter Heating Payment, which replaced Winter Fuel Payment in Scotland, is modelled under @@ -30,14 +31,17 @@ Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if average temperature is recorded as, or forecast to be, **0°C or below over 7 consecutive days** between 1 November and 31 March. - A member of the benefit unit receives a **qualifying benefit**: - Pension Credit; Income Support, income-based JSA or income-related - ESA with a disability or pensioner premium or a child under 5 (or, - for ESA, in the support or work-related activity group); Universal - Credit when not employed with a limited capability for work element, - a disabled child element or a child under 5, or when employed with a - disabled child element; or Support for Mortgage Interest with one of - those premiums or a child under 5. The GOV.UK eligibility page has - the exact conditions. + Pension Credit; income-related ESA in the support or work-related + activity group, or with a severe or enhanced disability premium, a + pensioner premium, a disabled child or a child under 5 (the + Regulations extend the same premium test to Income Support and + income-based JSA); Universal Credit when neither the claimant nor a + partner is employed or gainfully self-employed and someone has + limited capability for work or there is a child under 5, or, whether + working or not, when the award includes a disabled child amount; or + Support for Mortgage Interest with one of those premiums or children. + The [GOV.UK eligibility page](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility) + has the exact conditions. The payment is £25 per 7-day cold period, and each further cold period triggers another payment. Spending varies a lot with the winter: in @@ -57,11 +61,11 @@ analogue). Modelling the weather side has three plausible approaches: 1. **Expected-value parameterisation**: a single national `cold_weather_payments_expected_periods` parameter capturing the long-run-average number of 7-day cold periods triggered per winter. - Multiply by `£25 × qualifying_household` to produce the expected + Multiply by £25 and by the qualifying household flag to produce the expected annual payment. Easy to implement, accurate in aggregate, wrong in any specific winter. 2. **Regional weather mixing**: a per-region weather-event - distribution (e.g. North East has more cold periods than London on + distribution (for example, the North East has more cold periods than London on average), parameterised from Met Office historic data. Captures the distributional skew without forecasting any particular winter. 3. **Year-specific lookups**: tabulate the DWP-published *Cold Weather @@ -74,7 +78,7 @@ and option 3 for back-casts where the data is available. ## Proposed scope -### Phase 1 — qualifying-benefit gate + expected-value payment +### Phase 1: qualifying-benefit gate and expected-value payment - New parameter `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.amount` = £25. The amount was lower in earlier years, so take any backdated values from the @@ -92,13 +96,13 @@ This delivers a model that gets the policy-relevant slice right (*who* qualifies for CWP and how it interacts with their other benefits) at the cost of smoothing year-to-year weather variance. -### Phase 2 — regional weather mixing +### Phase 2: regional weather mixing Add a `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_by_region` table parameterised from Met Office observation data, and a household-side lookup by `region`. -### Phase 3 — Scotland Winter Heating Payment +### Phase 3: Scotland's Winter Heating Payment Paid by Social Security Scotland under [The Winter Heating Assistance (Low Income) (Scotland) Regulations 2023](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/16/contents) @@ -113,16 +117,16 @@ weather trigger. So: residence in Scotland. Reuse the Phase 1 variable rather than a second copy of the benefit conditions. - `winter_heating_payment` = `amount` × eligible, with `amount` - uprated each year (£62.00 at the latest uprating). + uprated each year (£62.00 from April 2026). ## Data needs -- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/social-fund-cold-weather-payments) — estimated eligible numbers at the start of each season and weekly triggers by weather station; the main calibration source. -- DWP-published WHP statistics (Scotland) — Phase 3 calibration. -- Met Office, [UK climate historic stations](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data) — Phase 2 regional expected-period parameterisation. +- DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/social-fund-cold-weather-payments): estimated eligible numbers at the start of each season and weekly triggers by weather station. The main calibration source. +- Social Security Scotland's Winter Heating Payment statistics: Phase 3 calibration. +- Met Office, [UK climate historic stations](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data): Phase 2 regional expected-period parameterisation. The FRS gives `region` cleanly, so the geographic gate is no extra -data work for Phase 1/2. +data work for Phases 1 and 2. ## Open questions From 1a469ab09309c8aaf79bc26650ad470446fdd8ac Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 02:28:13 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 4/4] Correct the Cold Weather Payment plan against regulation 1A The page reached main through #2386 and its changelog line shipped in 2.143.0, so this drops the released .added fragment and corrects main's copy: - Winter Heating Payment replaced CWP in Scotland from 1 November 2022 (SI 1988/1724 reg 1A(8), inserted by SI 2022/1018), first paid February 2023, not "in 2023". - Add the third and fifth conditions (no care home unless a child under 5 or CTC disability element; home in England or Wales). - IS and JSA(IB) premium lists are wider than ESA's; SMI recipients treated as on Pension Credit need no further condition (reg 1A(2)(g)). - GOV.UK summarises; reg 1A has the full test. - SMI and the pensioner premium have no variables yet. - Phase 3 must drop CWP's care-home and England-and-Wales conditions (WHP also dropped its CTC limb in 2025, SSI 2025/195). - DWP publishes triggers by weather station, not region; the Met Office historic data are monthly for 37 stations. - WHD covers bill-payers, not everyone on the benefits. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- ...old-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md | 1 + changelog.d/435.added.md | 1 - .../gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md | 83 ++++++++++++------- 3 files changed, 53 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/435.added.md diff --git a/changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..a873c8bfa0 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/435-cold-weather-payment-corrections.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Corrected the Cold Weather Payment plan (docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md): the full regulation 1A conditions (care homes, England and Wales, Income Support and JSA premiums, mortgage-interest loans with Pension Credit), the winter 2022-23 Scottish replacement, the Winter Heating Payment rule and the weather data source. diff --git a/changelog.d/435.added.md b/changelog.d/435.added.md deleted file mode 100644 index 4ac12a8377..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/435.added.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -Added a plan for modelling Cold Weather Payment and the Scottish Winter Heating Payment (#435) at `docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md`. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md index b24fd6315b..591ff5c6c8 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/dwp/cold-weather-payment-plan.md @@ -14,7 +14,8 @@ In Scotland the equivalent is the **Winter Heating Payment**, a flat annual payment (£62.00 from April 2026, regulation 9 of [SSI 2023/16](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2023/16/contents) as amended), which -replaced Cold Weather Payment there in 2023. It isn't modelled either. +replaced Cold Weather Payment there from winter 2022-23 (first paid in +February 2023). It isn't modelled either. The separate Pension Age Winter Heating Payment, which replaced Winter Fuel Payment in Scotland, is modelled under `gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp`. Updated October 2026: amounts, @@ -24,7 +25,7 @@ legislation and the Scotland and Northern Ireland position checked. ## What CWP is Defined in [The Social Fund Cold Weather Payments (General) -Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if +Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A claimant qualifies if **all** of the following hold: - The address is in a postcode linked to a weather station where the @@ -33,15 +34,21 @@ Regulations 1988][cwp-1988] (SI 1988/1724). A household qualifies if - A member of the benefit unit receives a **qualifying benefit**: Pension Credit; income-related ESA in the support or work-related activity group, or with a severe or enhanced disability premium, a - pensioner premium, a disabled child or a child under 5 (the - Regulations extend the same premium test to Income Support and - income-based JSA); Universal Credit when neither the claimant nor a - partner is employed or gainfully self-employed and someone has - limited capability for work or there is a child under 5, or, whether - working or not, when the award includes a disabled child amount; or - Support for Mortgage Interest with one of those premiums or children. - The [GOV.UK eligibility page](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility) - has the exact conditions. + pensioner premium, a disabled child or a child under 5 (Income Support + and income-based JSA qualify on a similar test, under which the + disability, higher pensioner and disabled child premiums also count); + Universal Credit when neither the claimant nor a partner is employed + or gainfully self-employed and someone has limited capability for + work or there is a child under 5, or, whether working or not, when the + award includes a disabled child amount; or Support for Mortgage + Interest, either while treated as entitled to Pension Credit (no + further condition) or with one of those premiums or children. The + [GOV.UK eligibility page](https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility) + summarises them; regulation 1A has the full conditions. +- The home is in England or Wales, and the claimant doesn't live in a + care home, an independent hospital or certain other accommodation, + unless the family includes a child under 5 or child tax credit + includes a disability element (regulation 1A(4) and (8)). The payment is £25 per 7-day cold period, and each further cold period triggers another payment. Spending varies a lot with the winter: in @@ -54,22 +61,25 @@ weekly triggers, from which payments can be estimated. ## Why this is harder than other DWP benefits -The eligibility test combines an administrative benefit check (clean -for PolicyEngine) with a **geographic weather event** (no FRS -analogue). Modelling the weather side has three plausible approaches: +The eligibility test combines an administrative benefit check (mostly +covered by existing PolicyEngine variables, though Support for Mortgage +Interest and the legacy pensioner premium aren't modelled) with a +**geographic weather event** (no FRS analogue). Modelling the weather side has three plausible approaches: 1. **Expected-value parameterisation**: a single national - `cold_weather_payments_expected_periods` parameter capturing the - long-run-average number of 7-day cold periods triggered per winter. - Multiply by £25 and by the qualifying household flag to produce the expected - annual payment. Easy to implement, accurate in aggregate, wrong in + `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_per_year` parameter + capturing the long-run-average number of 7-day cold periods triggered + per winter. Multiply by £25 and by the qualifying benefit-unit flag to + produce the expected annual payment. Easy to implement, accurate in aggregate, wrong in any specific winter. 2. **Regional weather mixing**: a per-region weather-event - distribution (for example, the North East has more cold periods than London on - average), parameterised from Met Office historic data. Captures the + distribution (for example, the North East has more cold periods than + London on average), parameterised from DWP's trigger counts by + weather station. Captures the distributional skew without forecasting any particular winter. 3. **Year-specific lookups**: tabulate the DWP-published *Cold Weather - Payment statistics* by region by year and use those as historical + Payment estimates* by weather station by year (mapped to regions + through DWP's postcode-district lists) and use those as historical inputs. Most accurate for back-cast simulations; needs ongoing updating. @@ -99,8 +109,8 @@ benefits) at the cost of smoothing year-to-year weather variance. ### Phase 2: regional weather mixing Add a `gov.dwp.cold_weather_payment.expected_periods_by_region` table -parameterised from Met Office observation data, and a household-side -lookup by `region`. +parameterised from DWP's trigger counts by weather station, and a +household-side lookup by `region`. ### Phase 3: Scotland's Winter Heating Payment @@ -113,9 +123,12 @@ child-under-5 conditions), assessed in a qualifying week (2 to 8 November in 2026), but the payment is a flat annual amount with no weather trigger. So: -- `winter_heating_payment_eligible`: the Phase 1 eligibility rule plus - residence in Scotland. Reuse the Phase 1 variable rather than a second - copy of the benefit conditions. +- `winter_heating_payment_eligible`: the Phase 1 benefit conditions, + without Cold Weather Payment's care-home and England-and-Wales + conditions (and without the child tax credit disability element, + which Winter Heating Payment dropped in 2025), plus residence in + Scotland in the qualifying week. Reuse the Phase 1 benefit-condition + variable rather than a second copy of the benefit conditions. - `winter_heating_payment` = `amount` × eligible, with `amount` uprated each year (£62.00 from April 2026). @@ -123,15 +136,23 @@ weather trigger. So: - DWP, [Cold Weather Payment statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/social-fund-cold-weather-payments): estimated eligible numbers at the start of each season and weekly triggers by weather station. The main calibration source. - Social Security Scotland's Winter Heating Payment statistics: Phase 3 calibration. -- Met Office, [UK climate historic stations](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data): Phase 2 regional expected-period parameterisation. - -The FRS gives `region` cleanly, so the geographic gate is no extra -data work for Phases 1 and 2. +- DWP's trigger counts by weather station (Table 3 of each season's + *Cold Weather Payment estimates*), mapped to regions through DWP's + postcode-district lists: Phase 2 regional expected-period + parameterisation. The Met Office's + [historic station data](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/historic-station-data) + gives only monthly series for 37 stations, so it can serve as a + cross-check but can't count 7-day cold periods. + +The FRS records `region`, from which the model derives `country`, so the +England-and-Wales and Scotland gates need no extra data. Region is a +coarse stand-in for the weather-station areas that trigger payments, so +Phase 2 models a regional average, not individual stations. ## Open questions - The qualifying-benefit list is narrower than for the Warm Home - Discount in England and Wales, which now covers everyone on + Discount in England and Wales, which now covers bill-payers on Universal Credit, Housing Benefit, income-related ESA or Pension Credit. Model the eligibility as one composite variable, shared with the Scottish Winter Heating Payment, or as separate flags by route